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What's a bond with a negative yield?

Started by alanhart
about 15 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007
Discussion about
... you Wall Street types are nuttier than fruitcakes.
Response by Wbottom
about 15 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010

since real interest rates are negative, a bond which pays based on the cpi should have a negative rate

tips bonds are the invention of the rubin treasury

real rates at less than zero are the work of our fine federal reserve

how does it feel to live in japan?

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Response by jason10006
about 15 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009

Not entirely accurate, its traders betting on specific aspects of QE2.

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Response by Wbottom
about 15 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010

what are you talking about?
the specs of the bonds are very specific--they pay a rate determined at auction, as in the 5yr today which came at negative 55 basis pts, and in the secondary markets, in additon to an amount based on the cpi--for a number of reasons tips have been bid up to account for anticipated ongoing negative real interest rates--the fed has indicated that, via qe2 and generally obscenely easy monetary policy, it will be targeting reflation of our economy

current 5yr treasury yields a lousy 1.18% where the fed hopes to reflate to appx 2% CPI

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Response by w67thstreet
about 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

I'm feeling japanesa, I'm feeling japanesa, I think so.

Jason shouldn't you be streaking naked across the I bank trading floor to male friends? Leave the negative discussion to us fruitcake makers.

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Response by w67thstreet
about 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

'make' damn iPhone!

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Response by jason10006
about 15 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009

Some day you will understand interest rate futures, swaps, and swaptions. Obviously people expect a positive yield in the future.

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Response by Riversider
about 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

This is a big story, it means the market is convinced the Fed is engaged in an inflationary policy that they'll accept zero real rate of return(ignoring any questions about the CPI itself). Think about it, investors are saying I want a less than zero real rate of return.

How many people would lend money out and only want 99% of it back?

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Response by w67thstreet
about 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

jason, r u saying that mkt participants in interest rates and their desire to lock in or take on interest/inflation rate risk is the core determinant of the negative TIPS yield and is in no way reflective of riversider's opinion his bagel prices have risen? Do tell.....

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Response by Riversider
about 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

And from another vantage point, we've told purchasers of our national debt that if you park in dollars, those dollars will buy less in the future. Forget foreigners, are Americans so brain dead to realize they are being subject to a hidden tax when their savings are losing purchasing power due to Fed action?

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Response by w67thstreet
about 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

fking idiot. it took a negative yield to tell you that? how about 10bps on savings acct? NO it was only when TIPS went negative... you can't be more financially imbecilic....

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Response by Wbottom
about 15 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010

"Some day you will understand interest rate futures, swaps, and swaptions. Obviously people expect a positive yield in the future."

happy to field any intelligible inquiry re the above instruments--as phrased, no clue wtf you are talking about

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Response by alncomm1
about 15 years ago
Posts: 83
Member since: Oct 2010

http://www.alanhart.net/

At last somebody has said it in the most explicit way possible. The somebody also said: “The problem is Zionism and the solution is dismantling the Zionist framework and instituting a secular democracy that does not discriminate between Israelis and Palestinians.”

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Response by jason10006
about 15 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009

WIth QE2 expect to see more negative bond yeilds is whats I means.

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Response by marco_m
about 15 years ago
Posts: 2481
Member since: Dec 2008

only downside is if inflation doesnt pan out, then you just paid the government to lend them money

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Response by alanhart
about 15 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007

And if you're so so sure that inflation lies ahead, wouldn't you do better just laddering more conventional products and avoid the downside risk of negative yield for longer than you'd like. Plus TIPs use the govt's handy-dandy bogus 50% of real inflation mechanism to up yield.

No?

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Response by Riversider
about 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

Laddering into products that all under-price inflation?

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Response by Riversider
about 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

PIMCO had it right, sell CPI floors.

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Response by columbiacounty
about 15 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

how do i short riversiders?

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Response by alnhcomm1
about 15 years ago
Posts: 11
Member since: Oct 2010

Excellent question. Thanks as always for adding to the streeteasy discourse.

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Response by alanthart
about 15 years ago
Posts: 13
Member since: Oct 2010
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