SPY - profit?

Bought October 12, 2007 at $156.33

nada, curious what made you sell a bunch today...

Nada, congratulations! (Not being facetious: you had the foresight to invest when the market was down by a ton, and you were rewarded.)

For us risk-averse plebeians, $100,000 put into a savings account on 3/9/09 at 0.02% is now worth $100,058.36. Minus taxes on that "income".

Addendum: it's actually less than $100,058.36, because taxes will have been taken out along the way, meaning it will not compound quite as fast as it would if you paid the taxes in one gulp at the end. I don't know why the government bothers taxing earnings on savings accounts at today's low interest rates. For someone with only $50 or $100 in their account, it probably isn't worth the effort of processing the penny or two that is brought in.

I did not sell. Somewhere out there, someone did. I was just letting 300_mercer know, because he's into cherry-picking dates & specific items.

Then when I run out of cherry-picked examples (unlike NYC RE, it's going to be a lot), I'll post replicas of SPY: IVV, VOO, S&P 500 futures, options, etc. Because 300_mercer is into repeatedly posting a pts from outlier buildings.

Then I'll talk about how the market must be hot, the lack of sellers, etc.

>I did not sell.

Don't mislead them, you also didn't buy only and exactly on March 9- you were posting the "cherry picked" market bottom.

Correct.

VTI... (currently at 78.34)
3/23/2009 $40.33 94.26%
3/23/2009 $39.97 96.00%
3/20/2009 $38.64 102.75%

I've been selling a bunch of everything since dow hit 13,800

SWE, you're missing the point. You're supposed to go cherry-pick the best possible trades other people did, not your actual trades. Pick a juicy outlier stock, throw in some leverage, etc. Bulls have implicitly conceded the point on the market & are now waging battle with repeat outliers. We seem to have left the realm of reality.

>SWE, you're missing the point.

SWE, inoitall is saying he's smarter than you.

"You're supposed to go cherry-pick the best possible trades other people did, not your actual trades. Pick a juicy outlier stock, throw in some leverage, etc."

Ah, sorry, I missed the original irony. Those were my actual trades. Obviously, the better of my trades, but I was a big net buyer as I had stated back then. Been taking profits last 6 months (mostly when we hit 13,500 or more recently 13,800)

Nada, Was long with leverage in 2009 and renting. Only bought small additional amount at the bottom as I had bought some at 900 level. I am still long stocks in similar amount as home equity but that has nothing to with real estate being on fire. With 3 x leverage on real estate and prices up 4-5 percent per year, it is very similar to equity return. I have positive carry on my apt as we are not planning to sell and closing cost on the way in was minus 2 percent after paying mansion tax.

My calcs for real estate in manhattan going forward are simple. 3 percent returns which with 3 times leverage is similar to foward expected equity return. After 33 percent down, most properties ex ultra luxury condos and properties over 3-4mm price will break-even with a 10y hold using average rents in the market. Realize you can cherry pick both rentals and sales. I think I cherry picked a great value property to buy and Nada cherry picked a great rental for himself but we essentially made have generated alpha.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/27775-us-debt-downgraded-where-do-we-open-monday?page=1

Even 3% return sounds very generous to me... and are we ignoring transaction costs?

Why not apply some of that leverage to the stock market to be fair? SSOs....

SE financial minds have ruined real estate for me; much like going to McDonald's with someone who tells you how many calories are in that Big Mac I'm about to enjoy. Having now applied proper analysis to my little Florida cottage, I realize it makes zero sense for me to keep it, even though it is cash flow positive. I used it a lot when I was younger and started renting it out after I got married. I always thought that it was fine because it pays for itself. That it does, but just barely, and the appreciation over the past 10+ years has been minimal. Because I am not likely to ever use the property personally again, and it is not generating any real return, it makes sense to just sell it, but I just don't think I can do that to my tenants. Thanks a lot SE pundits (Nada!); my prior ignorance was bliss.

>much like going to McDonald's with someone who tells you how many calories are in that Big Mac I'm about to enjoy.
>Thanks a lot SE pundits (Nada!); my prior ignorance was bliss.

So you are saying that inoitall is like the Hamburglar?

Be careful, NYCNovice, or you'll end up like me.

Inonada do you know the forward drift as of today of the stock market? You quote these prices from 2007 but that really doesn't matter. I would use that number. If you need some help it has to do with risk free interest rates. Also do you know how to price larger variance with respect to return? It seems like your rudimentary knowledge of the stock market creeps in a bit when rationalizing renting vs buying.