The COVID-19 pandemic has created lasting changes in the New York City real estate market: the onset of remote work, the fastest decline in rents in more than a decade, and record low mortgage rates. StreetEasy’s list of neighborhoods to watch in 2021 reflects all these trends, leading to a list quite different from years previous.
We define the neighborhoods to watch for 2021 as the NYC areas that saw the greatest surge in interest among buyers, renters, and sellers in 2020, gearing them up for continued interest this year. To create this list of up-and-coming neighborhoods in NYC for 2021, we ranked neighborhoods based on an index of three factors: increases in sales prices, rents, and user searches year over year.
Last year, easy transit access was the unifying factor among our neighborhoods to watch. Then, of course, the COVID-19 pandemic upended life in New York. The resulting shift to remote work among many has created new preferences among city dwellers — especially for parts of Brooklyn that were long seen as attractive, but difficult for commuting.
Greenpoint Calls for the No-Commute Crowd
For 2021, Greenpoint climbed ahead of its neighbor Williamsburg to claim the top spot on our list of up-and-coming neighborhoods in NYC. This once-industrial stretch of North Brooklyn has virtually everything New Yorkers have long found appealing about Williamsburg: skyline views, great dining and nightlife, and attractive new and old homes. It also has a more laid-back character.
The major downside of Greenpoint was reduced public transportation options compared to its southern neighbor. But with norms shifting toward remote work for many white-collar jobs, interest in this vibrant, historic neighborhood is now surging.
Greenpoint 1-3BRs for Sale Under $1M on StreetEasy Article continues below
Greenpoint’s prices and rents are more comparable to Manhattan than to most of Brooklyn, and the neighborhood’s popularity in 2020 is reflected in its rapid price growth. Of all NYC neighborhoods, Greenpoint saw the largest annual growth in sales prices and the largest growth in StreetEasy search volume, making it easily the hottest up-and-coming neighborhood in NYC for 2021. Home prices in Greenpoint surged by 13 percent in 2020, during a time when the borough’s overall prices fell by more than 2 percent.
Most Neighborhoods to Watch Are in Brooklyn
Brooklyn landed eight of the 10 spots on our list of up-and-coming neighborhoods in NYC. For 2021, the borough is poised to become the default option for New York renters and buyers.
Many of the Brooklyn neighborhoods listed here had attracted creatives and freelancers for years before COVID-19 hit the city. Now, they’re becoming top choices for those working from home, in part by offering amenities especially desirable amid a pandemic.
If you’re looking for a quiet escape from Manhattan, the brick- and brownstone-lined streets of Fort Greene and Bushwick are just the opposite. New Yorkers looking for green space can work from home in Park Slope and Prospect Lefferts Gardens, and stroll through Prospect Park on their lunch breaks. These four neighborhoods were already popular leading into the pandemic. But they all saw at least 50 percent growth in StreetEasy user searches in 2020 compared to 2019.
“Many buyers find they get more of what they want outside of Manhattan,” says Beatrice Genco, licensed real estate salesperson for Triplemint, and StreetEasy’s New Yorker’s Choice 2020 award winner. “I encourage my clients to consider the 2-bedroom they can afford in the Lower East Side, and compare it to the same bedroom count in a neighborhood like Fort Greene.” In terms of light, space, and amenities, Genco says, Brooklyn often wins out.
Brooklyn 1-2BRs Under $2600 on StreetEasy Article continues below
Rents Are Falling, But Less Slowly in Some Places
The past year saw NYC rents fell at their fastest rates in more than a decade. But the top Brooklyn neighborhoods for 2021 have had rents fall at slower rates than in the rest of the borough — a strong indicator of their popularity.
Yet record high inventory for rentals and sales in the borough shows that supply is still outpacing demand. This means that both renters and buyers will be able to find good deals in Brooklyn in 2021.
NYC’s Priciest Neighborhoods Are Now More Affordable
Tribeca and Dumbo are not exactly up-and-coming neighborhoods in NYC — they’re at the top of the heap. But while these areas have long been synonymous with wealth and luxury, record price drops have made them much more accessible.
In Tribeca, median rents and prices remained the same, but there’s now a wider range of prices in the bottom half of the rentals market. It’s possible to find a 1-bedroom apartment with a doorman, gym, and roof deck in Tribeca for $2,195, even if it last rented for $3,150 in 2018. There’s also a studio for $1,995, last rented at $2,400 in 2019. These are prices you’d more expect to see in a genuinely up-and-coming neighborhood in NYC.
In Dumbo, Brooklyn’s priciest neighborhood, landlords are offering significant concessions and discounts. A 1-bedroom apartment initially listed for $2,800 has dropped to $2,450. A studio for $2,895 is still pricey, but, with three months’ free rent, offers a net-effective rate of $2,171.
StreetEasy user searches for Tribeca and Dumbo rose by 49 and 52 percent, respectively, in 2020. Despite that surging interest, New Yorkers who’ve aspired to live in these well-known neighborhoods may now find them much more within reach.
How We Did It
We identified the 10 NYC neighborhoods to watch for 2021 using an index of three key performance indicators: annual change in median asking rent, annual change in median sale price, and annual change in user searches that include a given neighborhood on StreetEasy.
