How aggressive are you these days?

I have bid low on 3 apartments and have been outbid and lost the apartment. My experience is that on the desirable apartments they still go quickly. Anything with issues lingers and is open to lowball bidding. Unfortunately, with the recent changes in the market, people are just pickier and less willing to settle for the less desirable apartments. All of which maintains competition on the better units.

I totally concur with EAO. I bid low on a place and was easily outbid. Another place I was/am interested in, just out of my price range, was snapped up at ask as well. If you are picky, it is very tough because there are likely to be at least 3 other people interested in the same place.

Oh pleese...khd...I've been out there myself and others have seen and heard the complete opposite..except for certain areas and size apartments...brokers are accepting and asking for offers whatever the price. Apts. being snapped up...that's totally not true.

Can someone please explain what priced right means in relation to sales prices. Is it 5% above 2007 comps? Is it 3% below 2007 comps? Does priced right assume that there will be a discount from the listing price that is 3%, 5%, 10%?

Also what does less desirable mean? If I am reading between the lines correctly less desirable is anything that is not a luxury or near luxury building, is not a new development, and is not a condo?
i.e. A seventh floor, 2BR, 2Bth on the upper west side for 1.25 with light but no river or park views would be undesirable.

Regarding priced right are the sales prices for priced right apartments goint to be greater or less than the 2007, 2006 sales and by how much.

julia:

I have to concur with EAO and khd. I've begun looking for distressed investment potential places, but only those that are 1 or 2 bedrooms in the Village with solid amenities and in great condition with good layout/light/views/condition/etc. For the the really good places, there's been a total flight to quality and the sellers (thus far, at least) have not had to lower their asking price (assuming that there not beginning at something so ridiculous that it's an obvious fishing expedition). In addition, those sorts of place have gone into contract pretty quickly. But anything suffering from SLIGHTLY compromised layouts/views/light/etc. gets almost no play at all.

It's like the market is bifurcaing into 'shit' or 'masterpieces' with no mid gound level.

Pez - what's priced right for one person will be priced wrong for another. It's impossible to try and establish a formula based on 2006 and 2007 sales to reach a universal definition for "priced right." It's not like gold where you are dealing with a fixed commodity. Real estate has so many variables (location, size, condition, amenities, floor, light, layout) that it's nearly impossible to generate a fixed formula. Add into the equation the emotional value and attachment associated with real estate (as opposed to other commodities) and the fact that people give different weights to these factors and forget about it. One person may put a huge premium on being in a penthouse while another could care less. Although comps are the best way we have to assess market value, even that is extremely flawed. I'm in real estate. I can get two appraisers to appraise the value of the same apartment at $1.2 and $1.4, based on comps, and both would be justified in doing so.

Bottom line - there is no fixed formula. Do your research, look at what prices at similar apartments are going for and make your own personal assessment as to how the apartment your looking to put a bid on compares, weighing the factors that are most important to you. AFter you do that, put all the numbers and variables aside and ask yourself if you could see yourself living there happily.

Julia: Please don't accuse me of being a liar. I am merely reporting my personal experience. I am specifically referring to places that I like (YES, in a specific location, of a specific size) that are priced right AND desirable. I didn't claim this for every property. I've looked at nearly 80 apartments in 15 months, made one bid (was outbid) and nearly bid on another (but was too late). Both places got ask.

Pez: priced right can't be defined easily. It is something you only figure out after looking at a lot of places, knowing what you want and what you can afford. Even if one said, "it should be 5% less than 2007 comps", there might be someone who ignores this and buys the place because they like it. Sorry for the wishy washy answer.

Incidentally, both places that got ask were on the market for less than a week when they got contracts out.

khd - I tend to agree with you. In the last 3 months, I've been outbid on two apartments - both went for asking without financing contingencies within a week of listing. The "quality" apartments are still going quickly.

Thanks joepa for backing me up. Unfortunately for people like us, the quality places are few and far between. I suppose the good news is that if we can get one, it will hopefully hold its value in the long run.

khd...where have I accused you of being a liar??? I have seen the opposite of what you're saying but I don't know what areas you are looking at.

"Priced right" is measurable only in hindsight. If an apartment goes to contract at (or slightly above/below) its original asking price within a few weeks of listing, it was priced right.

In short, it's a meaningless term, and often has more to do with luck and good marketing than being "right" in any absolute sense.

Julia: "Apts. being snapped up...that's totally not true." By inference, this accuses me of lying. But I will assume you didn't mean it ;)

I agree with West, "priced right" will depend on the situation, too.

4 apartments i have seen. 3 of them i bid above and still lost. waiting on the new one to see how much i have been out bid. I agree with EAO and khd. There are some desperate seller just looking for anything and no one is biting. Few that are good, they are gone less than a week.

Quality of listing is declining.

julia your comments are pretty categorical for someone that hasn't actually bid on anything. Maybe when it actually happens that you drop that lowball offer that gets accepted you could let us know.

I've bid below ask (and lost by 1-2%) on 2 apartments over the past 4 months. They both accepted bids at approx 7% bel ask. I would say the apts were priced at a 10-15% premium to 2007 (peak) pricing, thus the below ask bids. Otherwise, apts that are priced at 2007 levels or slightly higher, w good views, good condition, are getting ask prices (assuming ask is not significantly higher than 2007 prices).

I'm also looking at 40% down buildings, which makes it a different animal.

I must be living in a different Manhattan or else everyone on here is talking about 2 bedrooms in chelsea.

Yes julia, that's because riverdale isnt really manhattan

cranky is reading my thoughts...I've been thinking of leaving my small, really small one bedroom and moving to riverdale but the prices there are too high.

Malraux,

I am curious as to what you consider views/light in GV? I saw six places downtown this weekend, three on the second fl, two on the third floor and one a towering 11th fl unit, but in a very busy location. In a low-scale neighborhood like much of downtown, are you referring to a Hudson River view or a park view?

So it sounds like when people on this board say when something is priced right is is selling, that does not provide much information as to what is selling. By definition than an apartment is priced right if it sells i.e someone is willing to pay their price. And is desirable if someone wants it.

I see a lot of the apartments that I have been looking at are sitting for sale since January '08 at prices that I believe they would have sold at in June '07. I guess they must be priced wrong, even after some hefty drops.

"By definition than an apartment is priced right if it sells i.e someone is willing to pay their price. And is desirable if someone wants it. "

Yes. Simple huh?

The last thing I bid on (1br in Alphabet City, not between C & D) was at the very end of 07. I bid 17% below asking (yes, seriously). They countered at 10% below asking and I gave them my reasons why I was sticking to my bid. They waited a day and accepted my original offer. I had the contract soon after. Before you think their asking was astronomical, my bid came to about $700/sf (less per sq ft by their bogus measurements). I did think the maintenance was a little high. Yes, the space was unusal, but it suited me well. I had concerns about the building's condition, though, and the home inspector I brought in promised me a lifetime of problems and assesments so I passed (didn't stop 8 other people from buying in since 2005). It has since gone into contract, but apparently hasn't closed, so I don't know what it finally went for.

ok tenemental, that was a completely unhelpful posting.

khd seems a bit sensitive, julia did not call you a liar, she reflected a different experience than you.

and for those of you who place several bids, I'm sure any professional broker worth his or her salt could figure out your game ... real estate isn't a commodity.

Tenemental, I think that was the most helpful posting on here this thread. We've had two accepted bids in the last 6 months. The first one was accepted over asking in July/August 2007, but after we went into contract the sellers could not get their paperwork together to close so after waiting patiently we were finally forced to pull out. We lost about $5000 on that deal, and the sellers have taken the property off the market. The second one was accepted for about 20% under asking, but we pulled out when we realized we still couldn't afford it. We loved the property, and the sellers' brokers (who were wonderful, btw) came back to us a few months later after the price was lowered, saying the sellers would consider a slightly lower offer than our earlier bid. We hesitated, and it is now in contract with someone else. We feel like we have a pretty good sense of the market right now, and there is absolutely nothing worthwhile out there. Sooner or later, either something decent will have to pop up at a reasonable price or we'll have to move out of the city.

Amity95 don't you think you should figure out the maximum you can afford before wasting everyones time including your own bidding on things out of your range?

KISS:

Well, no doubt about it, a river/park view would absolutely qualify.

But my last purchase in the Village was August 2007, a penthouse unit in a six floor building. Unbelievable north views/light (epic shots the Empire State Buliding/midtown skyline) and west views/light (no water, but the sunsets and sweeping open sky vistas are incredible). As you say, because everything is so low in the area, being on the top floor (even if it's the 6th) gives one the feeling of being much, much higher up than elsewhere in the city. We look over the top of almost every buliding in the immediate area, so the views/light are really incredible in this specific unit.

It takes work to find these types of units in a lower lying area such as the Village, but it can definitely be done.

Care to elaborate, mattthecat?

If you think it was unhelpful because you assume it was a marginal property (I did say it was an unusual space), I'll tell you it was a lot less marginal than the unit I saw earlier in 07 between C & D in an equally old building that needed a total gut reno and went for nearly $1k/sf asking.

If you're assuming it "doesn't count" because the building had problems, I pointed out that 8 other parties (about a third of the units) bought into the building in the past 3 years.

What a difference the end of a frenzy makes.

malraux - just curious, what was your price psf? and what size was the apt? sounds like a terrific place

also tenemental your post was very helpful (as yours usually are), not sure what that person's problem is

CSN - That was pretty harsh. Peoples' idea of what they can afford changes over time. That is the case even if their financial situation and cash flows didn't. Their comfort level with their choice, their idea of where a market might be heading, their family situation... all can change over time.

Markets also change. Do you think someone looking at CC/maintenance increases has the same expectations today? Don't you think it would be wiser for them to consider faster increases in those costs than in the past? Also, the rates on Jumbo loans have jumped in the last few months. Another 50 or 100 basis points can have an impact on what someone can afford.

AvUWS, harsh no, reality yes. You are very correct on your points though we are talking about bids of about 6 months ago when things were more stable including the interest rates. Some people, and I am not saying in this case, use this as an auction to try to win something when they have not set the parameters that they need for their own situation. If I was the seller and took a bid of 20% less than by asking, and there were no other problems with the space, I would expect that someone putting in a bid would be able to afford the property.

Thanks Amity95 and evillager.

evillager -

1,850 s.f. inside, 1,550 s.f. wrap terrace

kind of hard to figure p.s.f. cost, due to the inside/outside nature of this unit.

Roughly about $1,200 psf, factoring in the terrace.

csn, good question re: figuring out affordability before placing a bid. We actually didn't place a formal bid. We saw the second property as a comp for something we would work towards down the line, and while we loved the apartment we told the seller's broker upfront from the very beginning that it was out of our price range. They engaged us in conversation, however, and coaxed out hypothetical numbers that we didn't imagine the seller would ever entertain. Next thing we knew there was a contract out and the brokers were talking about all sorts of really crazy creative financing, but we came to our senses pretty quickly. It was a good thing, too, because the day after we put an end to the fantasy our mortgage broker called to confirm our feeling that it was out of our price range. We actually lost a few hundred dollars on this aborted effort too. When the brokers came back to us a few months later saying that the sellers would consider a lower price, we almost did place a formal bid this time but hesitated, and it's now in contract with someone else. Needless to say, we are a little trigger-shy right now.

Amity95, OK now I understand. The problem is more with your broker. If you had given the broker your parameters, they should have followed that and not help push you to something out of your range. That is what a seller broker is going to do and you should be protected by the buyers broker who represents you. In the end you made the right choice to pass on the properties. Now set up a figure including tax and cc and all those nice closing costs and get a figure you know you could afford and will be approved for a mortgage. Then you can search specifically at that level. Good luck. There is a lot out there, some nice, some not so nice, hopefully you have the time to wait.

Hey, as a general question to the folks here... When you submit a bid and it was rejected because "there are several bids higher than yours", would the seller's broker ever tell you what the next highest bid (in relation to yours) would be? Or do they just tell you that generic statement?

officially the broker cannot tell you what the other bids are. I always am told "it was just below/above ask" or "at ask". I'm not even totally sure that is kosher, or true when they say it. If there are several bids that are close, then it goes into best and final, generally.

I've actually been told what the higher bid was on two occasions, and both were accurate. One was early in my search, a sponsor unit at a time when I only had 10% saved and 80-10-10 loans were possible. Without quoting an exact figure, the broker made it pretty clear how much higher the bid was. It was still a good price for the space, but the space was less than I wanted and I was only willing to take it at a particularly low price.

The other time I was told what the bid was (asking), but my lower bid would have been accepted because the broker thought I was a better bet with the board. I discovered the comps at this point and realized the unit was way overpriced.

Both times completed sales showed the brokers to have been honest about the other bids.

That said, "there are other bids on the table" is one of the brokers' most common lies. It does seem they're using it less frequently now that there's less pressure on buyers.

80-10-10 loans were possible.

Yikes. Why would anybody stretch like that to buy in this market?

Look at the number of listings: 7,000. Last 10 years an average of 8,000 units sold in Manhattan, if 6,000 sell this year, it'll be a miracle. We're talking about a 1-year plus supply here, and soooo much more new dev coming online.

Just wait - watch for a 25% price decline in 1 year, 50% in 2.

Malraux bought "in the Village was August 2007." Top of the market. Seems like a move to me. Listen to him.

Steve, it wasn't "this market" yet. The monthly total carrying cost was hardly a stretch, I just hadn't saved very much beyond 10% yet. It would have been a conforming loan and I'd have had a reasonable rate on a HELOC that I would have paid off in a year or so.

stevejhx - why so angry?

I'll make you a bet, because you're such a bully on these boards, and have such a big fuckin' mouth. Since you're forecasting a "...25% price decline in 1 year, 50% in 2....," I'll take you at your word. Here's the bet - if the terraced Village penthouse I bought in August 2007 goes down 25% from $1,200 psf (the buying price in August 2007) to $900 psf by August 1 of this year, I'll give you this penthouse, title clear. Alternatively, if it goes down 50% to $600 psf by August 1 2009, I'll give you the place, title clear - your choice if you want to take the 1- or 2- year bet.

If you're wrong in either case, all you lose is a modest cash amount equal to two months of your (supposedly $1,500/day) earnings, surely FAR less than this penthouse is worth, even at fire-sale proportions. Very little downside for you, lots of upside, since your logorrhea (or should we say blogorrhea) is so self assured with fact n' figures n' such.

So are you gonna put your money where your mouth is? Because I can tell you that this Village unit is now rented out with a three year contract, and after allowing someone else the privilege of paying off my monthly mortgage and maintenance/taxes for me, I'm clearing 5k/month in pure profit.

Or are you just going to be angry angry angry, hurl insults, but not back them (and your "facts" up) with real action.

I'm quite sure you'll try to find a very imaginative way to weasel out of your prediction and/or the bet, you'll be sure to say you're not angry, here's just-the-facts, and if you don't agree, you're wrong, blah blah blah blah blah. But just put your money where your mouth is, if you really believe in what you spew anonymously all over these boards. Just take the bet, and show everybody here that you're so rightous with that you actually belive what you say and are prepared to back it up with real world action.

steve, your comments just get more and more outlandish...malraux shares his perspective on apartments that he is interested in (note it doesn't sound like he wants an average 1-br in murray hill) as well as his purchase and you just say "top of the market" and "25% price decline in 1 year, 50% in 2"

you just have no understanding that there are very, very few great apartments available in certain neighborhoods (notably, the village). so there has been little to no price compression for these kinds of apartments. when you use average statistics, you are including old crappy walkups with terrible layouts (which make up most of the housing there), instead of thinking about what a new apartment in the same neighborhood, or even old apartments in the few great buildings.

also - because of neighborhood activism, new construction is very limited, capping inventory. this is what makes great buildings in the village so valuable.

do you really think if malraux tried to sell next year, he would get 25% less? or 50% in 2 years? it's absurd...why do you think new developments in these neighborhoods can go for $2-3000 psf? does that have any relation whatsoever to your "average" price psf in manhattan, or even in the village itself?

I don't think I sounded angry at all. Joyful, actually.

Just look at the sales figures posted on "rising inventory." It's a fact that 30,000 units were permitted in Manhattan in recent years. It's a fact that on average only about 8,000 units sell in Manhattan per year, even in HOT years, like 1998-2007. Just those new permits equals a 3-year supply, never mind normal turnover.

"New construction is very limited"?! Please! 30,000 units were permitted. The West Side Rail Yards, West Street, BPC, the Financial District, Hell's Kitchen, I could go on and on and on.

Some neighborhoods will always command higher prices than others, unquestionably. But if you think that prices can't fall, and fall dramatically, you're not looking around you. These things take time to work through - what's happening on Wall Street is here for the medium-term. What's happening in the mortgage market is here for the long-term.

Good investors know one thing: prices of everything always return to the mean. Always. Not the mean in absolute numbers, but the mean in terms of fundamental ratios, be it price/earnings for stocks, or price/income for rentals, or purchase price/rent price for purchases.

Everything ALWAYS returns to the mean. We are now far, far outside the mean. Never before in the history of the world have property prices risen so high so fast. In Manhattan, that rise is correlated almost 100% to Wall Street bonuses. Well guess what....

steve, why don't you respond to malraux's bet?

and I stand by my statement - new contruction is VERY limited in the Village, whether East, West or "Central". most of the housing stock is old walkup buildings which cannot be torn down, and height limitations make the economics more challenging for developers anyway.

this is why in the limited pockets where there is some building going on (like far west village) the apartments are commanding very steep prices

I never said (or say) that "prices can't fall", or even that an "average" apartment will not go down in value (though I doubt it would to the extent you claim).

I am saying:
1) that the hundreds of statistic that you throw out there are largely meaningless for the area/kind of apartments I am interested in
2) your claim that malraux's "top of the market" apartment will go down 25-50% in value is preposterous

steve- the doctors are going to take away your internet privileges AGAIN.

I don't think the price will fall that quickly - $900 psf by August 1, 2007. Nor do I think it will fall to $600 psf, ever. But the price will fall. My guess is to about $800 psf, which would be the 2004 price. Approximately, because I haven't seen the place. In the building where I used to live in the West Village, prices were $800 psf in 2004. They are now up to $1,600 psf.

I haven't seen the apartment to place the bet: perhaps it was the deal of the century. A better bet would be that average prices will fall - I'll take you up on that one: $800 psf by 2010.

evillager:

1) that the hundreds of statistic that you throw out there are largely meaningless for the area/kind of apartments I am interested in.

Why? If prices go down, they go down everywhere. They do tend to go down slower and less in more desirable neighborhoods, but they do go down.

What also happens is what is "desirable" changes: when I was a kid no one would dare step foot in Tribeca / SoHo. Now, they're the most expensive neighborhoods in the city.

2) your claim that malraux's "top of the market" apartment will go down 25-50% in value is preposterous

Why? It happened in Miami and Las Vegas, albeit for different reasons. It's happening in San Diego. Prices here shot up more than there, but they shot up later here. The fact is that the increase in property prices in Manhattan is 100% correlated to Wall Street. Now that that's dead, people are claiming "foreigners." Well, that's what they claimed in Miami, too.

Overbuilt is overbuilt, and for historic demand, Manhattan is now overbuilt with the new inventory coming on the market. It will take time for it to be absorbed, but at the rate of fewer than 9,000 apartments per year, that will take over 3 years.

Income is income. Wall Street represents 33% of NYC's income, 11% of its jobs. That game is over. If it is, how can prices stay the same?

I know! Foreigners!

but no one buys an "average" apartment, they buy a specific apartment. it's not like stocks where you can buy (or short) and index of NYC houses. so while you could be right generally, that won't mean anything specifically.

my comment is based on knowledge of downtown neighborhoods, and malraux's desctription of his apartment. I know how valuable something like that is.

evillager, I've said it all along: just because the market is doing one thing doesn't mean it will affect all units in the same way.

I also know the West Village - I lived there for years. It will always be more expensive than lots of other neighborhoods, but as long as incomes are falling (as they are in NYC thanks to Wall Street) and credit is tight (as it is thanks to banks and new regulations), property prices will fall. The average person living in the WV will always make more than the average person living in Inwood, so prices will be higher. But if the average person living in the WV makes less than he did last year, prices will go down.

I am not as all-knowing as you are, however, and could not offer a guess on the specific price of an apartment without actually stepping inside of it. I can only tell you what has happened in the past.

Wow, Steve, nothing like panicked backpedaling, huh? -

First, it's "...Just wait - watch for a 25% price decline in 1 year, 50% in 2. Malraux bought "in the Village was August 2007. Top of the market...." The statement is just as clear and succinct as you can possibly be.

Then, suddenly, it's "...I don't think the price will fall that quickly - $900 psf by August 1, 2007 (a 25% price decline in one year as stated above). Nor do I think it will fall to $600 psf, ever (a 50% price decline in year two as stated above). But the price will fall..." Total, and absolute, retraction of commentary above.

So NOW, according to Steve, it's "...A better bet would be that average prices will fall - I'll take you up on that one: $800 psf by 2010..."

OKAY, STEVE, I'LL TAKE THAT BET!! As I said above, I'll put my knowledge and experience in Manhattan residential real estate toe-to-toe with yours. So I'll out my terraced penthouse unit on the table, fee- and title- free to you if the place is valued at or below $800 psf on 1 January 2010. If it's valued above $800 psf, you lose, and give me two months of your-supposed-$1,500-per-day income. Again, it's a super sweet deal for you. As you said above you're betting MILLIONS (!!!) on real estate to go down, so this should be a lock-n'-load-no-brainer-of-a-bet for you, with your razor-sharp-no-margin-for-error real estate savvy. You only have to put $90,000 on the table, while I'm willing to risk something that at a fire sale price is still in the millions.

Or do you want to now retract the second statement you made?

I see much mincing and waffling from steve in the future.

"...Just wait - watch for a 25% price decline in 1 year, 50% in 2..." HAR HAR HAR

I said average prices, malraux. I never made any of the claims you're saying I've made, so I can't be backpedaling.

I never said August 1, 2007, I never said $600 psf, and I never claimed the predict the price of any particular unit, especially one unseen. Give me the address and I'll take a look at it, but if you want to take me up on the average price of $800 psf, I'll do that.

Okay steve, so let me get this super straight.

When you said in the same post in two contiguous sentences -

"...Just wait - watch for a 25% price decline in 1 year, 50% in 2. Malraux bought in the Village was August 2007. Top of the market..." what you're now saying is that those two contiguous sentences were completely and totally 100% unrelated in any way whatsoever. Well, it's nice to know that your power of logical writing structure and style are so well intact, steve.

So now, what we have to do is completely and totally seperate these two contiguous sentemces, that, according to you, have no relation whatsoever to each other. Fine.

So let's just deal with the first sentence alone, all by itself, shall we?

"..."...Just wait - watch for a 25% price decline in 1 year, 50% in 2..."

I will now bet you two month's of your pay (calculated at your supposed $1,500 per day income level), or $90,000, that you are wrong. And just to be super clear, we're talking, according to your previous post, about "...I said average prices, malraux..." And by that I take you to mean the average price of residential Manhattan real estate. Should we say ALL of Manhattan, or should we select a prime grouping area, like all residential real estate south of 96th Street?

So, therefore, you say the AVERAGE price of Manhattan residential real estate will be down 25% in 2008, and down a TOTAL of 50% by the end of 2009. I'll take that bet steve, for two months of your pay. If Manhattan residential real estate ON AVERAGE is down 50% or more by December 31 2009, you win the bet. If Manhattan residential real estate is down LESS than 50% ny December 31 2009, I win the bet.

Am I now reading your posts correctly, or do you want to parse, mince, waffle, and backpedal for a third time, steve?

I'll take the bet, malraux, but April 9, 2010: prices down 50%. To make it easy, take the West Village. Current median psf: $1,633. $800 on April 9, 2010.

Or all of Manhattan: $1,182 median psf. $600 on April 9, 2010.

Take your pick.

Just to set your logic straight, however, I said you bought at the top of the market. I did not say you bought for top dollar, did I? You could very well have gotten the deal of a lifetime. Possible, but not probable.

Steve, do you realize the magnitude of the economic catastrophe that would engulf not just NYC but the rest of the country if prices in manhattan were to decline by 50% in 2 years? That would mean hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of people would have their entire life savings/net worth erased.

I think you better pray that it does not occur because the ramifications on everyone's lifestyle, including your own, and our children's, would be far greater than winning of losing your bet.

50% decline is a bit stretching. But I would expect Manhattan prices to decline 10-20% within the next year or 2. This is assuming that we don't go into a Japan style recession/deflation phase that happened in the early 90s.

Take a look at this chart posted on this blog. The parallel looks pretty scary. But no one knows what the future holds for us. I for one certainly don't think we are out of the woods yet. We had a 10 year real estate boom (1996-2005) that ended in spring 2005. I don't think it will only take 3 years for the market to get back to normal. My prediction is that it is going to take another couple of years (2010) to revert to mean.

sorry forgot to post the link to the blog
http://www.sulfura.info/economy/us-japan-housing-crisis-looks-similar.html

duecescracked, do you realize what's happened everywhere else where prices rose so high? Miami is down 35% or something in a year, and falling, ditto Las Vegas, San Diego, elsewhere.

Most people won't be affected except on paper. But if you bought after 2004 - sorry!

I stand by my prediction. That is what rents say property is worth.

manhattanguy, "Take a look at this chart posted on this blog."

What chart?

House Price to Rental Ratio. Yup. That's what I've been saying.

See how stable housing prices have been over time, except recently? That's the mean we're returning to. No doubt about it. I stand by my predictions.

"...I'll take the bet, malraux, but April 9, 2010: prices down 50%. To make it easy, take the West Village. Current median psf: $1,633. $800 on April 9, 2010, Or all of Manhattan: $1,182 median psf. $600 on April 9, 2010..." Just to be clear, your numbers are coming from what specific source? I want to check them for myself.

Assuming the source is one we both agree on, I'll take BOTH bets, steve.

Just tell me exactly how you want to escrow the $'s.

malraux, just terrific...

I also wonder if steve could elaborate on how he is betting "millions" on housing prices going down?

Which irrevocable trust will you sign your deed over to?

Unless it's a co-op, then you're going to have a problem.

No steve - you backpedaled on your initial commentary, which was about my place, and now you're saying what you REALLY meant to say (oopsie!!) was "...I said average prices, malraux..."

So now we're NOT doing a point-to-point bet on my place (according to you), but overall AVERAGE MANHATTAN PRICES and AVERAGE WEST VILLAGE PRICES, right? Since the bet isn't about my place (even though that was your initial inference, being that it was the next sentence in your post above), now the bet is dollar for dollar on AVERAGE prices dropping from today's date, according to you -

"...April 9, 2010: prices down 50%. To make it easy, take the West Village. Current median psf: $1,633. $800 on April 9, 2010, Or all of Manhattan: $1,182 median psf. $600 on April 9, 2010..."

But wait - now we see that first you wrote "...I said average prices, malraux..." and now you're talking MEDIAN PRICES! Wow, steve, can you give anybody here a straight answer, or are you just a lying sack of shit? First, it was MY place, then it was AVERAGE prices, and now it's MEDIAN prices.

I will take both of those bets on the AVERAGE price, since you have repeatedly minced and waffled about what you REALLY mean (you bob and weave more than OJ Simpson in his heyday), on a dollar-for-dollar bet, as the bet isn't about MY place (because you said it never was, despite your high flying rhetoric). In fact, I'll make this MORE attractive to you. If you win, you get $90,000 (for each of the wagers). If I win you only have to pay me $45,000 (for each of the wagers) - so it's a 2-1 bet in your favor! How can you lose?!? As you say, you've got MILLIONS bet on this correction, so this should be the easiest $180,000 you've ever made in your life, right?

As I said above, just to be clear, your AVERAGE Manhattan and AVERAGE West Village numbers are coming from what specific source? I want to check them for myself, because at this point nobody on these boards can trust your opinions at all.

Malraux, please: I didn't even know you had any particular apartment in any particular part of the city when I said you'd bought at the top of the market, so drop it. And I've said repeatedly that it's not possible to interpolate the price of a particular unit based on the average price in the market. Repeatedly.

And when I wrote "median" I KNEW you were going to attach yourself to that. Just FYI, the "median" is a type of average, the one typically used in housing. The other two types of "averages" are "mean" - which is the arithmetical average, and probably what you're referring to - and the "mode."

You mean you're not signing your deed over to an irrevocable trust? :***( Are you backing out?

Oh, gee whiz, steve, thanks for the explanation of what a median is - gosh, I had no idea. The median is "a type" of average? Huh - go figure. Seriously, save your pandering kindergarden explanations for those rubes you're trying so hard to impress with your massive store house of razor-sharp-no-margin-for-error real estate savvy. Idiot.

Steve - it's your choice. Either you make a SPECIFIC bet on the psf price of my terraced penthouse going down 50% in value by 9 April 2010, or we can bet on the AVERAGE price of Manhattan (and West Village) residential real estate as a whole going down 50% on a psf basis.

If you want to bet on MY place specifically, then I put MY place on the table against two months of your so-called $1,500/day average earnings (right). But if you want to back pedal and instead do general AVERAGE prices dropping, then I'll give you a 2-1 cash bet ratio.

Again, your choice, steve. You're betting MILLIONS on the market going down significantly, so either way, YOU CAN'T LOSE! Right?

I told you what I would bet on: median $psf either for the West Village or all of Manhattan, on April 9, 2010. I cannot tell you what your apartment - which I know nothing about - will be worth, nor will you know without selling it, so that's a dumb bet. And the "mean" price is not a meaningful measurement since it gives weight to exorbitantly expensive properties, such as those that are being built along West Avenue, and terribly cheap ones, such as those with stabilized tenants in them.

Let the parsing, mincing, waffling, and back-pedaling continue!!!
The art of conversation goes on, and Samuel Johnson would raise a cup!!!!!

Notice that steve has STILL not said if he will actually take either bet. You have 2-for-1 odds, if you are so confident, why not???

And again, please explain how you have bet MILLIONS on house prices going down

Notice that steve has STILL not said if he will actually take either bet. You have 2-for-1 odds, if you are so confident, why not???

And again, please explain how you have bet MILLIONS on house prices going down

I told you what I would bet on: median $psf either for the West Village or all of Manhattan, on April 9, 2010. I cannot tell you what your apartment - which I know nothing about - will be worth, nor will you know without selling it, so that's a dumb bet. And the "mean" price is not a meaningful measurement since it gives weight to exorbitantly expensive properties, such as those that are being built along West Avenue, and terribly cheap ones, such as those with stabilized tenants in them.

Amazing, steve.

So your direct quote above "...I said average prices, malraux...." was - wrong? A lie? An idiotic comment?

And for the umpteenth time steve, what your source for your $ psf figures that you're spewing out. Please attach the link here to the page so we can ALL see it. I may still take you up on your retarded bet (this time, it's the MEDIAN folks - the MEDIAN - not the AVERAGE, nor a specific unit - what'll be next from crazy ol' "that's-not-what-I-inferred/really-meant-to-say-stevejhx").

Let's see your 'sources,' (as I've been repeatedly requesting) and I still may hace the pleasure of taking your money.

Here's a good discussion of the different types of "averages," malraux:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average

But I'll quote the first bit: "In mathematics, an average, or central tendency of a data set refers to a measure of the "middle" or "expected" value of the data set. There are many different descriptive statistics that can be chosen as a measurement of the central tendency of the data items. The most common method is the arithmetic mean, but there are many other types of averages. The average is calculated by combining the measurements related to a group of people or objects, to compute a number as being the average of the group."

and from here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_pricing#Median_home_price

"The median home price is one of the most common measurements used to compare real estate prices in different markets, areas, and periods. It is said to be less biased than the average since it is not as heavily influenced by the top 2% of homes sold. For example, the average home sale price in the US was $264,000 in October 2005, compared with a median home price of $213,900 for the same time period."

See that? Median is not only an average, but it is less biased. That's why it's used.

The price figures I got were from streeteasy, going to "advanced search" and requesting, for a particular area, the listings not in contract.

Just to clarify, though, it's not "my retarded bet": you started the "bet," not me. Though it does seem rather childish, I do find it entertaining.

steve, the only childish aspect is an idiot who makes sweeping conjectures such as -

"...Just wait - watch for a 25% price decline in 1 year, 50% in 2..."

And then when their feet are put to the fire over the matter, backpedal on their position, first it's the my place, then it's the average, than it's the median. And save your pathetic attempt to change the subject with your wikipedia discusion on "averages" - PUH-LEEZ!

As I said, I'm serious steve. Okay, fine. we'll go with the streeteasy numbers. So my understanding is that on 9 April 2010, MEIDAN housing prices in Manhattan must be at or below $600 psf or below according to streeteasy. On 9 April 2010, West Village MEDIAN housing prices must be $800 psf or below according to streeteasy. If not, you lose the bet(s). Period. So just tell me where you want to set up an interest bearing escrow account. You will deposit $45,000 per bet, and I will deposit $90,000 per bet. It's easy, easy money, right steve? After all, remember, you're betting MILLIONS anyway, so this should be like gravy on top of the millions you'll earn.

steve got cocked

What happened to your apartment? You're backpedaling!

And please, prices are down that far in plenty of places in the country where prices have fallen that far and continue to fall. That does not make me "an idiot," nor does it make it a "sweeping conjecture."

Name the spot for the escrow.

Parsing, mincing, slicing, chopping, dicing ---- it's a delicious stew!

Poorishlady, how's the new flat?

Steve says "...What happened to your apartment? You're backpedaling!..."

steve, allow me to quote myself again, because your memory seems to be as short as other parts of your anatomy....

"No steve - you backpedaled on your initial commentary, which was about my place, and now you're saying what you REALLY meant to say (oopsie!!) was '...I said average prices, malraux.' Steve - it's your choice. Either you make a SPECIFIC bet on the psf price of my terraced penthouse going down 50% in value by 9 April 2010, or we can bet on the MEDIAN price of Manhattan (and West Village) residential real estate AS A WHOLE going down 50% on a psf basis. If you want to bet on MY place specifically, then I put MY place on the table against two months of your so-called $1,500/day average earnings. But if you want to backpedal and instead do general MEDIAN prices dropping, then I'll give you a 2-1 cash bet ratio. So now we're NOT doing a point-to-point bet on my place (according to you), but overall MEDIAN MANHATTAN PRICES and MEDIAN WEST VILLAGE PRICES, right? Since the bet isn't about MY SPECIFIC place (even though that was your initial inference, being that it was the next sentence in your post above), now the bet is dollar for dollar on MEDIAN prices dropping from today's date, according to you 'April 9, 2010: prices down 50%. To make it easy, take the West Village. Current median psf: $1,633. $800 on April 9, 2010, Or all of Manhattan: $1,182 median psf. $600 on April 9, 2010'"

Yes, steve, that IS sweeping conjecture, and your total bullshit lying about what you said/meant to say/actually meant DOES make you an idiot.

The spot for escrow is any MAnhattan lawyer you name on this board taht I can contact tomorrow on the phone with a number you provide, asshat.

"asshat"? malraux! What a horrible thing to say about moi.

"total bullshit lying"? Really? How can I lie about an opinion? That's my opinion, so it cannot be a lie. Verily, methinks thou dost not like the possibility that thine investments might fall in value.

Oh, well!

The bet is yours, name your lawyer. I'll be there.

Danziger, Danziger & Muro, LLP
405 Park Avenue
Suite 502

Monday morning, 4/14
you name the time, I'll make the appointment

Bring yourself, valid ID, two certified bank checks for $45,000 each, and your attorney.

"total bullshit lying" =

1. The bet is about MY purchse,

but OOPs!, no, that's wrong,

2. The bet is about AVERAGE prices,

but OOPs!, no, that's wrong,

3. The bet is about MEDIAN prices,

Tha's not an opinion. That's trying to lie (or what we prefer to call weasel) your way out of a bet.

Name the time, and see you next Monday. Enjoy your weekend, weasel.

malraux and steve will make the headlines if this bet actually goes down (unlikely as that may be)

Sure, 10 am.

I've:

1) never said what your apartment was worth; I said you bought at the peak of the market;
2) always said that median is average when discussing housing
3) always made it clear that opinions are opinions, not facts. No one can state for certain what will happen in the future, just make educated guesses based on the past.

I thought you were betting your entire apartment? Put it in an irrevocable trust? That was the initial bet.

You're so, so angry malraux! So angry!

blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

Dear weasel, it must be tough to see your own words indight you.

Also interesting when you weaseled out of the first bet on my specific unit "...never said what your apartment was worth...I said average prices, malraux..." Those are YOUR WORDS, weasel-boy. As I said (and I love requoting this because it shows what a weasel you really are) "...Steve (or should I have said weasel-boy) - it's your choice. Either you make a SPECIFIC bet on the psf price of my terraced penthouse going down 50% in value by 9 April 2010, or we can bet on the MEDIAN price of Manhattan (and West Village) residential real estate AS A WHOLE going down 50% on a psf basis. If you want to bet on MY place specifically, then I put MY place on the table against two months of your so-called $1,500/day average earnings. But if you want to backpedal and instead do general MEDIAN prices dropping, then I'll give you a 2-1 cash bet ratio."

As for your 'opinions, ' yeah, we'll see just how much thy're actually worth to you monday morning at 10am.

As for anger, I'm just excited to put my money where my mouth is.

Just shut up and show up.

Boy, when I saw the title of this thread, I thought it related to bidding on RE. I guess this discussion is really on-topic!

Steve, you are getting the straight people all wound up. Don't give them ALL the details of our agenda to undermine Manhattan real estate prices.

Dear Malraux: "indict," not "indight."

11201962, I'm enjoying this with malraux. Can't wait to meet him. I think he should show this thread to his therapist, though, because he would probably recommend a serotonin uptake inhibitor, or at minimum a beta blocker.

Maybe I should change my prediction to a 75% decline in Manhattan property prices. This way, malraux will never collect on his bet, because he will have died of apoplexy beforehand.

steve the weasel -

blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

Just shut up and show up.

80% decline. That's my new bet, malraux. I'll be there!

I don't get your "80% decline" joke steve. Are you admitting that your "50% decline" bet was a ridiculous exaggeration?

also - you still haven't answered as to how you are betting MILLIONS on home prices falling

face it - you have been exposed as nothing but a bunch of BS. now fix my laptop, tech nerd.

What's wrong with your laptop? The latest Vista "upgrade"? It's caused a lot of people problems. Check to make sure none of the services are stopped.

If it's a hardware issue, however, not my bailiwick.

No, I'm not admitting anything. 2004 prices, that's what I've always said.

I didn't know you could buy in manhattan for $250 psf in 2004. Which is what is implied by your absurd 80% decline statement

I think I spilled coffee on my laptop, not really sure. So get on with fixing it while I go to the gym . Better be done right, tech guy!

"...No, I'm not admitting anything. 2004 prices, that's what I've always said..."

Good for you, weasel-boy. Now you can out your money where your furry little snout is.

Se ya Monday!

Ah, how I love to be hated by you people!

Hey, mal-adjusted, Steve's money has been "out" for years!

As in the infamous South Park sketch "Tom Cruise, come out of the closet?"

oh malraux, you truly are going to die of a heart attack.

But I find you most entertaining.

BTW I asked my attorney to review my threads, and he says I can clearly document that:

1) You offered me your apartment, not $90,000.
2) Median is in fact a type of average, and therefore what I said is true.
3) I have always claimed that prices would fall to 2004 levels.
4) I have repeatedly documented that in 2004 prices - on the same apartment - have doubled.
5) I have repeatedly claimed that therefor a 50% decline was in order.

I have, however, changed the time frame with incoming data.

My attorney advises me to hold you to your original bet. Weasel.

(This is so much fun.)

You asked your attorney to reveiw your threads? Are you serious? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. You paid someone to review your streeteasy threads? LMFAO. I can't stop laughing. Are you for real?

can you guys take a picture together and post it for us if you actually get together? i think that would be humorous

JuiceMan, you're more naive than I thought. Didn't you see what I wrote at the bottom?

Do you REALLY think I would ever meet Malraux in person? Weren't you the one who "warned" me about 11201962? Can't you read by Malraux's threads that he's nuts? If anybody would be a stalker - or a psychopath - it'd be him.

You, yes, are full of hot air, but Malraux...Wow!

stevejhx just out of curiosity do you think one is better off renting or buying in todays economic climate?