Is Now the Time

Oh, just wait for the reactions...

Mhillqt. Bravo. You have arrived. Of course, now is the time to buy from everything you've stated above.
But the Lost Souls will be pouncing soon.

You can safely ignore everyone who claims this is or is not the time to buy. Don't be a sheep.

perhaps UrbanDigs can comment....he always has great advice...Noah?

$own <= $rent ?

alanhart, you are my favorite poster. The rent-own imbalance has existed for a long time. How come you advised clients to buy at 2003-2008 levels????

Noah, please post the Shiller-chart URL again.

Mhillqt, if your monthly nut (less an allowance for increased income and RE taxes) will let you buy something you can live with for the forseeable future, then be adventurous and go for it. Someone, after all, has to keep the business going.

The last 30 days show a 4:1 ratio of new listings to contracts signed. Given these numbers consider the "risk" of further substantial declines. If you can mitigate the risk with a smart purchase and a long time horizon then the reasons to purchase now may be a little more compelling.

ahh yes the great and powerful Noah, can you please comment on the eloquence of Mhilqt?

> Is it possible that NOW is the time to buy...no competition, low rates, good prices....will waiting
> till end of year or next year bring back more buyers

Given that all of those things have actually brought about LESS buyers.... I don't think the logic holds.

More people are LEAVING the market than ever. And we just don't have the incomes we used to.

We've been on a significant trend upward for about 15 years now... you think a few months is all it takes for that bubble to burst.

Once again..... the housing market took FOUR YEARS to stop falling (not recover, STOP FALLING) after 1987 crash.

"ueside
about 5 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse alanhart, you are my favorite poster. The rent-own imbalance has existed for a long time. How come you advised clients to buy at 2003-2008 levels????"

You can just put me between your Farrah Fawcett pinup and that cute "Hang In There, Baby" kitten.

Do you think perhaps you have me confused with someone else? I have never posted anything even remotely bullish in the couple of years I've been posting to SE, and I've never had any clients of any sort.

Sorry if I mixed you up. Aren't you the broker who only in late 08 told people not to buy but rather rent?

Nope. I've never been a broker, and I sold (closed) in August 07 after feeling bearish for over a year. I look forward to feeling bullish, but I'm not there yet.

alanhart: (favorite poster) You can just put me between your Farrah Fawcett pinup and that cute "Hang In There, Baby" kitten.

- I always knew a tribute to that spunky kitten was long overdue!

obviously the answer is 'yes': is it 'possible' that now is the time to buy. that is a silly answer to a silly question. the relevant question is 'is it likely that now is the time to buy?' with the follow up ' how likely?'

so: is it likely? if you think that higher interest rates, lower salaries, decimated bonuses (next year far worse than this year), rising unemployment, reduced services, falling rents, and higher taxes are good for property values, then you would answer in the affirmative. if, on the other hand, you think that people with less money, fewer jobs, and higher tax burdens, and declining rents are going to spend less on real estate, then you don't buy now.

You can just put me between your Farrah Fawcett pinup and that cute "Hang In There, Baby" kitten.

too frikkin funny. i hartalan.

A posted question like this, so innocent and new to the world, raises the question: Are there just arrived space aliens visiting Manhattan?

this website is filled with so many arrogant people...its a wonder anyone would want to live in ny next to you guys/gals....the question is real......and just thought provoking since everyone thinks now is not the time to buy.....i went thru something similar after 9/11....prices started to come down and everyone was like...wait....they will drop even further...but the city rebounded quickly...now i know this is much more severe from an economic standpoint but it might be possible that now is the optimal time......no one knows......it was more for discussion purposes not to start throwing stones at people...ie 'so innocent and new to the world' type responses...ridiculous......

Mhilqt -- don't be so thin skinned, if people had wanted to be rude, they would have just told you to read the last 6 weeks worth of postings and then you would have had your answer. this has been discussed numerous times, in most message boards I know of, you would have been flamed to a crisp :)

PLEASE....get over yourself....

happyrenter, please don't state your opinion as fact. Where do you get from taht next year's bonuses will be worse than this year's? I am in banking and firmly believe that I will get paid more next year than this year.

And tons of people "believed" Manhattan RE would go up forever.

And the Lehman guy on this board said the same thing like 8 months ago.

uppereast -- where do you work? That's what's messed up about the bonus scenario, if you were at UBS/RBS, then of course your bonus would be better, since you probably got ZERO this year. If you are at MS, then much of your bonus comp is going to be tied up in clawbacks. If you were at ML, I'd be thanking John Thain, no way BofA will pay you as generous as the Dec 31 surprise.

So I think that it will be case by case based on the bank and we still do not know exactly how bonus comp will be restructured. Also, at some point when the chaos subsides, the banks will be increasing their base salaries. have you not heard that at your place of employ?

jmkeenan, bankers will make money again, I am not so worried about it. See how this AIG bonus clawback died away. Yes, banks will be raising base salaries (don't quite know why you make that a point against my post, I much prefer my money coming in as higher base). For happyrenter to state as a FACT that bonuses will be lower next year, is just wrong.

uppereat -- no doubt that bankers will make money again. You make many interesting posts on this board, so I'm trying to deduce exactly where in the bank world you sit. Banks are multi-headed beasts, so while I agree that bonuses will not necessarily be down across the board, I don't think it's accurate to say they will be higher across the board either.

My guess is that you work in something like M&A, something that basically ground to halt in September, so yes, you probably will have a higher bonus next year (and this is why you are busier in January/Feb. time frame).

I think on the macro level, many banks were created massive prop trading arms built on 30x leverage which they will no longer support. As profits tend to be siloed anyway, this reduction in leverage and reduction in prop trading activity overall should not affect you personally, but will affect the larger NYC housing market as the traders (who were making the "real money") will either have smaller books or will take their comp and start their own firms (which the Times picked up on recently). In either circumstance, their cash will either be tied up in their new enterprise or will be held in some kind of clawback scenario, which means less money for both maint. and less cash to buy the 10MM+ apartments.

My point on base salaries was only meant to validate that I know a little bit about compensation on the street, though I admit my knowledge is primarily centered around quantitative-based trading groups and so anything outside that realm is more of a hypothesis.