Home prices collapsing in San Francisco (not 1990s, now, Bulls....perhaps a more relevant comparison)

you're so mean

Why is it mean? If owners can afford their payments, then no harm no foul. Rather than mean, I think of it as rooting for the renters. My sympathy is with the sensible sideline sitters, circa 2004-2006, who had to live with the regret of passing up all this great appreciation...unless they didn't sell, in which case its now a shit sandwich. I think of it as rooting for all the people who don't make $500k+ who might by 2011 once again be able to consider raising a family here in decent style...like the 1990s. I root for the 1990s. 8x rent baby. That's an investment.

my attempt at humor. i'm on your side.

I think its tre ironical to be bashed for rooting against owners... Its in typically righteous to root against the rich? Eff the finance people...and I'm one.

I'm all about reallocating resources to best and useful uses.... RE ain't it :)

Honestly its a sin you can't short it directly. Shorting NYC condos at 75c is a no brainer trade. What is it? The stock market isn't cheap (tho prob ok on a 10-yr look)...Is it munis? How can I own NY munis into all the headwind I rant about. Or maybe at 8% tax free yield its in there.

Don't celebrate wealth destruction, one way or the other all us pay together, look at AIG

look at AIG? i'd prefer not to. f'ng assholes. and they have been for years. arrogant shits.

the people have been paying for AIG and their ilk for YEARS. clean out the crap, painful though it might be, and start again.

it's not wealth destruction if there wasn't any real wealth to begin. it's credit destruction, something that never really existed.

except of course a lot of stuff was bought with it as well as all the stuff that was paid for by bernie's illusory gains. if you're running a factory, the result is unfortunately the same.

cc, if you're running the factory these days odds are that you're in China. GM of course to the contrary. the limited number of factories we have were doing quite well until this little problem of ours went global. except for a few areas, we had outsourced most manufacturing and kept only the most profitable here (turbines, engines, planes).

did you know that one in eight Americans is employed in a health care related field? 1% were employed in those areas 50 years ago. and now even hospitals are laying people off.

guess you're right....outside the auto biz, most of our factories are probably making guns, planes, tanks, etc. still strong demand in that sector.

rhino, I don't have the stomach for it, but corporate bonds are your money maker right now. next year look at commodities.

Commodities may be now, but I don't have the stomach for size there. If you look at the OIH, it really does look like its breaking out of a six month base.

Yeah bonds are interesting...the tough part for me is how do you execute. I don't want a bond mutual fund with turnover.. I'd like to hold a basket to maturity.

Rhino, you may be right that commodities are now, but i can't tolerate that risk level. If you want answers to your bond question, go to www.ritholtz.com and ask the question on any active comments thread. Very helpful, very informed people on there, including some traders who haven't been wrong very often in the year and a half that i've followed the site. They don't care if comments are off-topic, and usually at least one thread turns into a trading-related comments section by noon.

In case you thought spring had arrived:

Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/17/AR2009041700969.html?wprss=rss_print

Bank Profits Mask Peril Still Lurking
Citi Makes Money, but Defaults Still Climbing

[...]
The earnings bloom, however, is probably a false spring, according to bank executives and financial analysts. Banks rise and fall with the economy. As prosperity recedes, more people and companies are defaulting on loans. The nation and its banks still face grave challenges, they said.

"We don't see the light at the end of the tunnel," Edward "Ned" Kelly, Citigroup's chief financial officer, said in an interview, referring to the state of the economy. His company, the most troubled of the large banks, reported that defaults increased during the first quarter on nearly every kind of consumer loan

Does anyone have any information on the how the S.F market breaks down by category/size? These headline averages (-46% yoy in this case) are often so misleading bc of the mix.

Go to the case schiller sire, and they have a condo index and a hous eindex for the SF area. I will try to find another site that had it by county...but long story short, SF proper is down by less than the bay area overall.

The original premise is...San Fran is getting walloped and its not the finance capital of the world. San Fran is the place that 'held up' even after the tech bubble deflated. Therefore, there is something wrong with the bull argument that draws upon the experience of the 90s. Coop boards and the fact that finance is by nature a lagging business are the reasons Manhattan is lagging in the race to sub 50.

jason is right, sf proper is down much less. it will fall, but it had a different trajectory from 1996 due to the tech crash, and it is less finance oriented than NYC so who knows.

full disclosure, i'm considering buying in SF and i'm a huge bear, so in the short to medium-term, i would love a decline.

it's also in one of the worst hit states in the union. horrible conditions, but they went there early so they may come out on the early side as well. who knows.

be careful with the median prices in SF. the shift changed towards the lower end. the high end is totally illiquid. a sizable part of the median price drop comes from this shift in the mix, not all of course. no transactions at the high end means that prices are just beginning to adjust downwards anyway.

the short sales and foreclosures are selling in the bay area. that brought down the median price.

exactly lookingtobuy, at some point within the next 2 years much nicer properties will be available on auctions. right now it's mostly starter lower end homes.

yes, admin. the higher price properties are just sitting waiting for buyers. to be sold, one has to price properties way below market and hope that buyers would bid it up.

THe SF area unemployment rate is a lot lower than CA overall. Its central and Southern CA that have been hit hardest, outside of LA county.

Well this turned out wrong.

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/San_Francisco-California/market-trends/

Though to be fair, they are down about 15-20% from the peak in the ENTIRE bay area (including even Silicone Valley.) But not SF proper, which I think is the only fair comp to Manhattan in this context.

hmm? How is Sf a fair comp to Manhattan? 30% of revenue in Manhattan comes from Finance(during peak). How much of the SF economy derives it's revenue from finance?

Outside of taking tours to Alcatraz on the cable car, making rice, making some of those chocolates that Warren Buffett likes, and filming new episodes of Dragnet, there's not much besides finance in the 1/3rd of the economy that is private sector.

Rhino86, FYI, nyc asking price is still at 2006~2007 peak value

TOP is the one who said SF is a Manhattan comp. That was the entire point of this thread.

no point. It has been dormant for 2 years. You brought it up yesterday.