Will prime UWS classic 7 hit 1.5 this year?

If it does, I have my checkbook ready. That's a huge drop.

By the end of this year, close, by next year, for sure.

Is a classic 7: 3 bedrooms, LR, DR, Kitchen plus maid's room? I suppose if you are looking at 108th and Amsterdam at a lead painted fixer-upper, maybe? In prime UWS, say CPW, you guys are all dreaming. This would be a minimum 2500 sq. ft. property, there is no way these trade for less than $3MM.

Somewhere in between 1.95 to 2.75 depending on where you are.

Yes, classic 7 is as you defined it. 108th and Amsterdam, however, is not prime UWS or Manhattan, at least, in our lifetime.

Again, a huge drop like the one suggested would have me, along with tons of other people, lining up to buy.

A 7 is not min 2500 sf. Someone who is a much greater authority on classic layouts than I can set me straight, but I believe 7 room layouts would start around 1800 sf and by the time you got up around 2200 you'd often be into an 8. It might not quite take 108th & Amsterdam and a lead paint hazard to get down to $1.5mm, but I think that the basic idea that it would have to be a fairly inferior property (estate wreck in a so-so location?) is correct.

No hard correlation between square footage and layout so, yes, can't sanely state that any classic 6 or 7 has to be a minimum square footage. Number of rooms is what matters in defining classic layouts. A broker (you know, the profession everyone abhors nowadays) can further clarify.

As a buyer on the lookout and owner, to suggest that an inferior property (estate condition isn't inferior, but a challenge) can be in a prime location just goes against common sense and the one universal real estate tenet: location, location, location

how much was it in 1998?

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/02/14/nyregion/take-that-dow-industrials-co-op-tops-2000-a-foot.html?scp=1&sq=seven%20rooms%201998%20apartment%20sold&st=cse

Look at the section for 7-room apartments.

ok...so the $1.5 figure for this year is by no means crazy. certainly more reasonable than $3 million.

1998 sales - 215W98 675k.

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/03/26/garden/residential-resales-186708.html?scp=4&sq=residential%20resales%201998&st=cse

221W82 (5 room?)
http://www.nytimes.com/1998/04/09/garden/residential-resales-406457.html?scp=6&sq=residential%20resales%201998&st=cse

Alexandria - 3br, 895k
http://www.nytimes.com/1998/03/12/garden/residential-resales-979759.html?sec=&spon=&scp=18&sq=residential%20resales%201998%20upper%20west%20side&st=cse

With this type of logic, I may as well ask my grandfather to price things for me. In his mature (yet wonderful) mind, I ought to still be paying 5 cents for a hot dog.

...Get less utility out of a hot dog but I still see carts pricing them at a $1, at least.

i'm sorry--is your grandfather 10 years old?

v cool post nyc10023 -- it really puts things in perspective. -- your first link several that are eye openers -- I would jump to buy at these prices or even close to 2x. Show how distorted the bubble has been.

SOHO $1.15 Million

41 Crosby Street

3,080-sq.-ft. open-space duplex, penthouse co-op; eat-in kitchen, library, 12-by-24-ft. terrace, washer-dryer, 3 exposures, 1 bath; maintenance, $1,150, 50% tax-deductible; listed at $1.5 million, 17 weeks on market (broker: Corcoran Group).

GREENWICH VILLAGE $1.2 Million

704 Broadway (Fourth Street)

4,800-sq.-ft. open-space loft; elevator, 2 baths, 14-ft. ceilings, maple floors, vaulted ceilings, Corinthian columns, 2 exposures; common charge, $823; taxes, $8,544; listed at $1.25 million, 13 weeks on market (brokers: Douglas Elliman; Mary Maulucci).

WEST SIDE $685,000

185 West End Avenue (68th Street)

3-bedroom, 3-bath, 2,000-sq.-ft. post-World War II co-op; 24-hr. doormen, concierge, marble bath with Jacuzzi, recessed lighting, wet bar; maintenance, $1,938, 50% tax-deductible; listed at $710,000, 22 weeks on market (broker: Corcoran Group).

UPPER WEST SIDE $635,000

215 West 98th Street

3-bedroom, 2 1/2-bath, 2,150-sq.-ft. pre-World War II co-op; 24-hr. doormen, dining room, maid's room, high ceilings, hardwood floors, original moldings and details; maintenance, $1,806, 59% tax-deductible; listed at $675,000, 4 weeks on market (broker: Klara Madlin Real Estate).

Joedavis: yes, I was here in 1998 and I never felt that owning was unattainable or ridiculously expensive. Just expensive, but doable. The other thing to note is that north of 96th or even 86th on UWS was a no-go zone for many of us. Not because of crime but just the sense that it was really, really far from services.

Affordability really dropped between 98 and 2000 (prices increased about 50%) on the UWS, flattened for a couple of years, then took off early 2002.

as i've said in other posts, very much like other types of assets (prime example would be collectible cars) that got priced out of range of 95% of their potential market except for the few who owned at the beginning. $1.5 million for a 1,800 sq ft apartment is still astronomical relative to the rest of the country and more importantly relative to the bulk of people's incomes.

OTNYC - classic sevens come in all shapes and sizes.
By no means are they a minimum of 2500 sq ft.
Most are around the 2000 sq ft range.
You are very wrong.

not the point...whatever size, shape, location or condition, the prices are coming down before we see anything approaching a functioning marekt.

10023, YES, nobody talks about the pre-run up run up. 1998 to 2000 was frightening. I bought in 2000 and I do tons of research, so I started looking mid-1998, and it seemed as though each time I blinked prices rose.

Closings in this sector have been so scarce that it's very difficult to say where the market is trading, when it trades at all. I could only find seven relevant sale that closed from November through April:

12/09/2008 771 WEA #12A $2,300,000 3 beds 3 baths 2,000 ft²
12/17/2008 490 WEA #3B $1,850,000 3 beds 3 baths
01/22/2009 90 RSD #16G $3,500,000 3 beds 3 baths 2,400 ft²
03/02/2009 333 CPW #33 $2,490,000 3 beds 2 baths (seven into six)
03/12/2009 255 W84 #12A $2,300,000 3/4 beds 2.5 baths (eight into seven)
03/27/2009 160 RSD #11A $3,809,750 3 beds 2.5 baths
03/30/2009 151 CPW #2N $3,500,000 3 beds 3 baths 2,450 ft²

The results don't look too bad, until you consider the asking prices on those properties, their generally high quality, and the stunning drop they represent from prior-sale comps. They are all well-located, in good-to-outstanding buildings, and several have sought-after views. Four or five required significant work, but that's in the nature of a sector where estate sales play a leading role.

More telling perhaps, is the plight of on-market or in-contract listings at several excellent coops on West End. When they sell, $1.5MM may look more like a milestone than a destination.

By the way, with regard to the footprint of a classic seven, the range is huge. At 490 WEA, for example, the sevens barely top 1700 sq.ft., with small public rooms, a tiny third bedroom, and a shaving closet in place of a master bathroom.

Aboutready: We looked from early 1999 to February 2000, and felt like we were chasing the market too. We threw in the towel and have rented ever since.

what would you guys say a high floor Park Ave Classic 8, say around 2700 - 3000 sft or so, fully renovated, working fireplace, with S/E open city views sells for in this market?

Bldg financing 30% only? 3BRs, 2 Maids rooms, 2.5 Baths, formal dining room, huge living room, huge gallery, big windowed kitchen and huge pantry area?

Any guesses?

Oh, sorry, in Carnegie Hill area...forgot to mention.

UD: PS6 or no?

I wasn't here in 1997, but based on articles, 1997 should be included in the huge run-up pre-2000. I don't think things changed much bet. 95 and 96 but you started seeing reports in 1997 of things being swept off the market very quickly. We got lucky with our purchase in '00. It was really '99 pricing but the crappy realtor couldn't get the seller to do the very basics (like keep the toilets flushed in a vacant apartment).

While the runup bet. 1997 and 2000 was frightening, we were at the very beginning of our careers so a 30% price increase didn't seem scary as we were expecting 30+% increases in income. Real estate seemed downright cheap when I graduated from college in the mid 90s, but I wanted to have the freedom to move.

no, good point, PS 198. Big diff

10023, i was blissfully unaware in 1997, i'm sure you're right. it only makes sense, it was shortly after Greenspan began his mad experimentation.

we have always been expecting income to overcome expenses, and they finally did, only to potentially plummet again (those banks and other financial clients just aren't paying their legal bills the way they used to, not to mention the myriad tax increases.)

oh well, no moaning. we're still employed. and good restaurants with $13-15 dollar entrees are popping up all over the east village, so deflation is giving me something.

UD: I think the quick-sale price has a high "2" handle - maybe a low "3". The bid-ask spread is huge: maybe 2.8 vs. at least 3.5, probably more if the reno and building are really good.

I found another UWS transaction from November in my notes. For some reason, SE hasn't picked it up from ACRIS:
11/05/2008 473 WEA #5A $2,600,000 3 beds 3 baths
Also an excellent building. I saw this apartment when Elliman had the listing. Pretty good condition; needed some refreshing.

The sale of 215 West 98th #11B for $1.45MM offers a hint as to the current market price for an seven wreck in a so-so location, in a building that never quite gentrified enough to regain its long-past glory.

For all the necessary caveats on this one, a 2000+ sq.ft. seven is a 2000+ sq.ft. seven, the Upper West Side is the Upper West Side, and $1.45MM is $1.45MM. Plus the maintenance is pretty reasonable, at about $1.10/sq.ft.

I'm not the whiz you are at ACRIS. What did 10B close for at last year?

I don't think #10B sold. Low-floor peak comps were around $2MM. The choice of brokers for #11B was, well, creative. And I don't mean that in a good way.

Thanks. Yes, creativity should have its limits.

The other B line comps on lower floors seem to have sold for about 2.25 in 07 and early 08, correct?
So this is selling for about 35-40% below those peak comps?

He was, but he tripled in age in 10 years. It was a bubble.