Count: RE Bull or Bear

Bear til end of 2009, or early 2010.
Neutral for at least a few years after that.

Bear through mid-to-late 2010; flatliner for years after that.

Bear
Bear

Which market?

Hmmm....I'll take bear until Q2 '10 and then slow and steady for the next 3-5 years. I could also be way off, but it's no fun not to throw out a guess.

Thise doesn't mean much without knowing if we're talking stocks or real estate.

10022, the thread SAYS RE bull or bear.

Continuing price decline until Q2 2010, flat until who knows when, maybe 2020

> 10022, the thread SAYS RE bull or bear.
HA, bad me.... I read that re as in re: (because I must have eyeballed the colon before).

I'm assuming we're talking NYC. And I'm figuring we're talking Manhattan median.

So, before the crash, I said decline through 2008 and 2009. I'm now amending that to decreases through 2010. We'll flatten out starting end of 2010, and continue through 2011-12 (which will be a net loss after inflation). We then might revert to a couple points of increases for the next 5 years after that.

We'll come back to nominal highs in maybe 20-30 years, and real highs not in our lifetimes (if ever).

Prices decline into 2010, then flatline. Angry, wild bear ... then sleeping bear.

Bullish on bearish count and bearish on bullish count

Ever see I Am Legend?

Very beary until mid-2011. Catatonic going forward for the next few years.

Bear.
We hit close to bottom next spring (pricewise), and then bump along for many years. There is no real recovery in prices, especially at the high end, for at least 5 years, probably more.

real estate sales volume rises a little bit in spring/summer, but basically remains low in 2009 aPnd 2010 compared to, say, 2008. Prices continue to flatline.

does that make me bearish?

Also, our co-op package just went in to the board, so (knock wood) we're looking at a June close.

does that make me bullish?

ali r.
{downtown broker}

Bear through 2012

ali, you're a burl.

"Prices continue to flatline" Continue?? No evidence that prices are flatlining in the first place.

Yogi says,"BEAR till Q3-2010 followed by bull with tiny nads".

Hope you don't need those pic-inic baskets

Shout out to to booboo!

Bear till Q3 09. Flat for 2 years after that. Not sure I can even hope for another bull.

ali: you're soft. The question was related to price, not quantity of sales.. "continue to flatline" that would imply the have started to flatline...NOT......step up..answer the question...lower, higher and when

Bear through 2010

seems 100% bears so far. great info here, keep the responses coming!

I'm generally bearish with no particular timeline, but my job is to find exceptions to the rule. (Luckily, mine is not a volume business.)
Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

"seems 100% bears so far. great info here, keep the responses coming!"

Good indicator to buy.

Bear. Definitely.

Just a note: I just bought a place and closing in June.

jifjif, congrats and enjoy.

Thanks! Just bit worried about the bears...

Let sleeping bears lie, they get testy when you wake them up. Life goes on. Only you can decide what works for you.

38% of Manhattan residents income is directly or indirectly linked to Wall street. The stock market has always been a leading indicator (6 months on average). Stocks have been on the biggest bull run in the history of the market since March 9 low. The Bottom is in and the wall street bonuses will be big in 2010 Q1. Look for prices to stabilize in Manhattan and then a 10 to 15% RE gain in Manhattan from todays RE median. (This is Manhattan only and everything below 125 St. to see the biggest gains.)

There are some truth in to that Tiffany. Foreclosure & 60/90D rate seems to be stabilizing. I would love to believe what you say but something just tells me that there will be some kind of a surprise early next year.

... not sure what it is.. but something..

jifjif, I bought in 2007 despite my general bearishness because I found the right place at the right price. I don't live in the economy, I live in my house.
When you dig into most posters' histories, you'll find nuanced and humane responses like aboutready's above. There's the market, and then there's you, and people here will support you in your quest for happiness - even if they think you're making a mistake.
Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

09 = bear
10 = bear to flatline

I am a fan of buying if you can get the right price so does that me me a bull...

If we're talking Manhattan, I'm a Big Bear for at least two more years.

If Brooklyn, I'm a bear for four more years. Farther to fall there.

I love myself, but that doesn't mean i want shoot myself in the foot with instant gratification buying a place that is losing money. I'd rather boost that downpayment investing it in another market that offer a better return so when i think the market has stabilized, my downpayment will most likely be twice as much and properties close to twice as cheap. Sorry Tina, but whatever you're trying to tell us, i don't buy it. You got caught at your own game and just come up with this bullshit to keep yourself from losing face.

Where are you going to double your money while RE estate loses half it's value?

Buy DMM. And good luck with that.

Stock market + saving much more than i've done so far.

What's DMM Justin?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/133886-macroshares-major-metro-housing-etps-changing-the-housing-game

People are going to lose their shirts playing that game.

"The Bottom is in and the wall street bonuses will be big in 2010 Q1."

This statement couldn't be further from the truth. The bonuses for 2008 were terrible and that was with 6-8 months that were extremely profitable for the most part and then the last 4-6 months of the year that fell off a cliff. The first 4+ months have been nowhere near as "profitable" as last year, even with the creative accounting methods used by the banks. Hedge funds are getting crushed, too. For bonuses in Q1 2010 to be big you would have to see an almost miraculous run in the industry for the rest of the year and that is just not going to happen.

Also:
- a big chunk of the money set aside in the 1st quarter by the banks was for severance.
- a number of them need additional capital.
- the TARP companies are not going to pay out huge bonuses.
- an operating profit is not profit in the sense you are alluding to.

for people who are itching to express their bearish view

@Bob: If you don't take risks, you don't drink Champagne! I am convinced that the NY RE market is toast. I'd rather put my money elsewhere and rent.
@Justin: Thanks for the link, i'm gonna dig into it ...

sledge, make sure you understand the potential issues with these paired trusts. Dig up the story about their earlier oil trust.

That is exactly what I was talking about. Not which side to play. Somewhat complicated and leveraged.

Also Bob, I can pull out from the stock market overnight. Try to tell these people who bought after 2006 if they can do the same thing...

sledge, you can do what you want. I just don't think you will come close to doubling your money in the market and I don't think RE prices are going to drop 50%.

If I can find something I like in a decent enough UWS area at under 700 / square foot I'm thinking very hard about it. I think there are some well informed sellers out there watching their window of opportunity closing in on them and pricing aggressively. So I'm a bull in this territory.

When I see nothing special cookie cutter 2/2's idling at 1000/ft, I begin to growl like a bear.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/breakingviewscom/5278103/Financial-markets-are-racing-well-ahead-of-the-real-world.html

This is a good read.

jifjif, yes, and it's fascinating how powerful positive thinking can be. I just don't think it's powerful enough to overcome the effects of deleveraging trillions of dollars and floating trillions of dollars of government debt in the efforts to do so. no free lunch, and all that.

the financial reporting, with few exceptions, is so much better in the UK. or maybe I just think so because they tend to be on the pessimistic side, as I am too at this moment?

Let's say an apartment goes for $1 million today, and that money can buy 200,000 can of Quaker oatmeal today.

In 2 years time, I am not so sure whether the same apartment will go for a lot less than $1 million, but I am a lot more willing to bet that it will NOT be worth as much oatmeal as today.

That's because (1) massive amount of money printing to put downward pressure on the value of $ relative to all assets and (2) apartments are a lot more overvalued than oatmeals.

I just called my broker to told him to buy me 50,000 oatmeals

all time low rates, 34% gains in stock market in less than 2 months, tons of cash on the sidelines, 30% drop in Manhattan RE value, anxious buyers = a recipe for stable RE prices now and 10 to 15% gains Q1-2 2010. Get ready for the stampede because all those buyers are going to create a minibuble very soon.

even minibubbles must pop. list soon before the minibubble pops.

oh boy...tiffany, I hope you are prepared to be accused of being a broker...

jif, congrats. you won't starve for the rest of your life. good for your heart too.

http://www.matthodgins.com/images/shark_bear/img_main.jpg

:-D

Thx Justin.

> all time low rates, 34% gains in stock market in less than 2 months

That's funny - I didn't realize rates would be so low in 2010 and that NY RE dropped that much when the market fell 40-45% in 2008. Therefore what diff. does it make that it's up 34% in 2 months when it's still down ~40% from the peak?

Gimme a bear hug :)

> "seems 100% bears so far. great info here, keep the responses coming!"
> Good indicator to buy.

Someone claimed exactly that a year ago, and that was a pretty horrible prediction, no?

Streeteasy is way ahead of the general populace

StreetEasiers are so smart!

I'm starting to grow hair down there... I must be a bear :)

I don't think tiffany is a broker. I think she is just dumb. Sorry to any dumb people that may be offended by being lumped in with tiffany.

no offense taken

nyc10022,

"Someone claimed exactly that a year ago, and that was a pretty horrible prediction, no?"

if you'll notice this thread was started 3 days ago, not a YEAR ago! i understand posting on this site contributes substantially to your social life, but i have to be honest, your posts are becoming ever so predictable and boring

Bear till the cap rates are over 5%

"if you'll notice this thread was started 3 days ago, not a YEAR ago!"

Why does a dumb statement become any more valid because its newer?

"i understand posting on this site contributes substantially to your social life, but i have to be honest, your posts are becoming ever so predictable and boring"

Well, because there is still ample amounts of the same predictable stupidity to respond to!

Would it be better if I was unpredictable, exciting, and horribly wrong?

I'll stick to being right...

Why such a low cap rate, Rhino?

I can get 8% now on commercial real estate.

bear through the end of the year, BULL by summer 2010.
If you're still sitting on the sidelines with your bear coupons by next spring, you might not have as much negotiating power as prices will begin to stabilize and we may get 2-3% uptick after Q2 2010.

I find unbelievable that there are still some people thinking the RE market will go up again soon.... Obviously, they don't know what the definition of a bubble is. When a bubble busrt, bubble prices don't come back! Just let me remind you one point. Right now, prices are not coming down, they are coming back to an affordable level. That's different!