Warburg Realty: Toto, We Are Not In January Anymore!

Here we go with the Month to Month instead of the Year to Year comparisons.

"I attribute the change to a variety of factors."

Yeah its called busy season...let's see what he has to say in July when they get 3 deals done....

I guess they will coin an article "Back to the future"

Bottoms in boys and girls!

In the last two weeks, Warburg agents have put together 22 deals. Now, we are not the biggest company in Manhattan and we had two week periods in 2006 and 2007 in which we put together more deals than that. Still, compared to the two or three deals a week we were assembling back in January (half of which never made it to contract) this is an extraordinary number.

I attribute the change to a variety of factors. Clearly, the rise in the stock market has buyers feeling more confident that the worst may be over. Sellers have become far more realistic about their pricing and negotiating strategies. And perhaps most important, New Yorkers WANT to buy these much more reasonably priced units. I like to joke that New Yorkers have a limited tolerance for delayed graitification. There is more than a grain of truth in that statement. After so many months of delay, people are ready to try to get on with their lives. And if the price is right, it does not feel like a foolish or extravagant decision.

The market is flush with first time buyers: the Obama incentive program, low mortgage rates, and negoatiable prices have brought them back to the table. But they are not the only players. Most of the 22 deals mentioned above are for larger properties, mostly co-ops, being bought by purchasers in a wide variety of professions: lawyers, doctors, bankers (especially those with strong salaries) and entrepreneurs are trading up, dipping their feet into the market and finding that the water is not so cold.

We are not looking for a V-shaped recovery. A nice slow U will suit us fine.

Oh my lord. After, what, 2 years of bulls saying "you have to look at YoY, you can't look at seasonal", suddenly they're done a 180.

Can't say I'm surprised... not many straws left to grasp...

Yes the $8k tax credit for first time homeowners really matters on a $1MM property. Thanks Warburg broker geniuses!

Don't know why, but I still find the denial outrageously funny..... its not been over a year of SteveF telling us the stampede was here, and I'm still laughing.

nyc10022..I didn't say a word(above) just bringing forward the good news.

steveF: from the text above it sounds as if in fact you are a real estate broker employed by Warburg. Is that in fact the case? Thanks in advance for your honesty. Liquid.

Never mind, I see now - you linked in the first message and then cut & pasted w/out quotation marks or saying what you were doing so it read to me like the text was yours, or you were a part of it in the second - my bad, never mind.

"In the last two weeks, Warburg agents have put together 22 deals. Now, we are not the biggest company"

I count 146 agents on their website. Extrapolate to yearly and get 550 deals for the year (assuming no slow times. yeah, right) that's 3 3/4 deals for the year per agent. Yup, the boom is back.

SteveF isn't a broker, he admitted he's a guy who went over his head buying multiple condos in town, and is now very underwater. He thinks if he posts enough that will fix it.

nyc10022...it's getting busy out there, positive perception is taking hold that the worst has past and people are buying. Nothing can stop those tough as nails Manhattanites! Not the 1975 bankruptcy, not the late 80s-90 crime, not 911 and certainly not this pathetic, almost over, recession. Have a Great day!

Kinda like buying the dip in 1930...

"Oh my lord. After, what, 2 years of bulls saying "you have to look at YoY, you can't look at seasonal", suddenly they're done a 180."

now, now nyc10022. Should we go find some posts where you are using month over month numbers to illustrate "the crash"? Seems your measuring stick changes based on the news.

theres more and more supply and no demand. landlords are now seeing that there is no new crop of people coming into the city this year and more people are even leaving. thats why the rental market continues to decline.

"now, now nyc10022. Should we go find some posts where you are using month over month numbers to illustrate "the crash"? Seems your measuring stick changes based on the news."

And I got shouted down by the bulls. Exactly as I stated.

What elese you got?

"nyc10022...it's getting busy out there, positive perception is taking hold that the worst has past and people are buying. Nothing can stop those tough as nails Manhattanites! Not the 1975 bankruptcy, not the late 80s-90 crime, not 911 and certainly not this pathetic, almost over, recession. Have a Great day!"

Steve, do you need me to pull out the quote where you said the same thing, uh, a year ago?

I'm sorry you're standing in quicksand, but denial is not going to help....

> Nothing can stop those tough as nails Manhattanites!

Except all those things did stop tons of Manhattanites. MANY, MANY, MANY fled.

What else you got?

Seriously, Steve, do you buy your own bullsh*t?