Crains: Where does NYC stand? Depends on where you sit

The ‘last in, last out’ effect

That New York is doing better than most of the rest of the country—so far—does not necessarily mean that the recession will be easier here in the long run. Job losses in New York could speed up this summer, outpacing the slide nationwide.

The unprecedented turmoil on Wall Street and the global nature of the recession make the economic tea leaves more difficult than usual to read. But there is a general agreement that, true to historical precedent, New York’s recovery will lag the nation’s.

Mr. Miller, who has his eyes on the closest thing New York has to an economic heart—the Manhattan real estate market—believes that the city is just beginning a years-long period of readjustment. “Last in, last out,” he says.

The past few decades have seen Americans become a nation of investors, with much of their wealth tied, directly or indirectly, to stocks and bonds. That has left the nation open to the boom-and-bust cycles that ravage the Street. But it has also made it clear to many people how important Wall Street—and, by association, New York—has become.

think we've covered this area in depth today but in the interests of a slightly different cliche, we seem to be going down the dreadful road of comparing losing an arm to losing a leg.

yes, cccharley, and one wonders what might happen here if the gov't decides to start weaning wall street from some of the assistance it's been given to prop it up. free money, subsidized programs to spur refi fees, huge amounts made trading debt, what will happen when the banks have to produce their own revenue streams? and when the credit card and CRE debts start piling up? and when rates increase (although that's probably sometime down the road). the gov't has made it abundantly clear the banks won't be allowed to fail, but when they are no longer at risk of failure, what will happen, at least in the near to medium term?

new york has done relatively well thus far as the unemployment rate is lower than some other areas. and we received a fair amount of stimulus money (and our banks a huge amounts of TARP funds, not to mention the other facilities). but i'm not sanguine that in the end these will continue and insulate NYC from the same degree of fall as California's. it will just take a bit longer.

cc, that reminds me of that scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

The logic is horrendous.

They try to brag that the vacancy rate is lower than national. Sure, great. But the gap just closed IMMENSELY.

Without that gap, no way to justify the prices, sorry.

Its like saying "New Yorkers still earn 50% more than the rest of the country, so we're doing great", forgetting that we used to earn 200% more....

If RE prices "only" fall these amounts, we are toast.

Not to mention missing the fact that we started later... as cccharley noted.

Wow, dude, Steve, can't say I'm surprised, but you are REALLY grasping at straws.