Dr. Doom/Prof Roubini seeing green shoots?

I'm sure streeteasy poster are more knowledgeable about the economy than Prof. Roubini. Right? He must be a doofus...a moron....an idiot for even suggesting that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

oh ericho. what is your definition of a recovery? 9.5% unemployment in 2011? would that do it for you? they're talking technical here, not happy. i'll have to reproduce the math problem for you.

Correct and as the economy rebounds unemployment will continue to grow. Great for all those unemployed.

Might be a question Prof Roubini can answer for you.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/

nroubini@stern.nyu.edu

i am well aware of Roubini's credentials. did you read the article you posted, btw? it's not very positive. i almost posted it in the negative news column. recovery means any growth. we need a couple of percent growth just to keep up with population.

so ericho75, you bought a few weeks ago and then come here to start threads on all the good news? Nah, no bias there

I dont doubt that the economy is possibly finding a bottom of some sort..that is completely independent of the fact that RE in manhattan in particular is headed much lower.

no no no...you guys got it ALL wrong. I'm not saying housing will rebound anytime soon nor am i saying go out and BUY a place. If you read my earlier post, i started the buying process last year prior to the recent release of data and improving price fluctuations in other segments of our economy. I'm merely seeing signs 'of light at the end of the tunnel' a few weeks back. These same signs are now picked up by our beloved Dr. Doom Prof Roubini.
And please, i hope no one will base their home ownership on messages posted here or anywhere else on the internet....

Marco,
Can one assume that a bottom in the economy can mitigate or stall the price depreciation of housing in NYC?

ericho, no. it's based on incomes, distress and momentum.

mitigate, well if the financial world ended property wouldn't be worth much, so yes, in some abstract sense.

hey...the poor guy just mortgaged his entire future and he's trying to get others to agree that it makes sense. no doubt you're starting to scare the hell out of him.

here's some more frightening info. Martin Feldstein sees the growth later this year as a one-time shot from the stimulus that might not be sustainable:

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/05/feldstein-has-the-us-recovery-begun.html

So, by the end of the year, we will see a slightly improved level of GDP, but the rate of GDP growth is likely to return to negative territory.

The positive effect of the stimulus package is simply not large enough to offset the negative impact of dramatically lower household wealth, declines in residential construction, a dysfunctional banking system that does not increase credit creation, and the downward spiral of house prices. The Obama administration has developed policies to counter these negative effects, but, in my judgment, they are not adequate to turn the economy around and produce a sustained recovery.

Having said that, these policies are still works in progress. If they are strengthened in the months ahead – to increase demand, fix the banking system, and stop the fall in house prices – we can hope to see a sustained recovery start in 2010. If not, we will just have to keep waiting and hoping.

CC,
"mortgaged his entire future"...i find this funny. If my mortgage is equvalent to rent, what difference does that make? Unless you own your home outright, what's the difference? I'm sure some of you are paying 1 dollar a night at a hostel somewhere; good for you. I hope Manhattan prices fall to 1 dollar per square foot so you folks can all buy your place on the cheap, I'm sure i'll join the buying frenzy.

AR,
So there you're saying that there are no correlations between an improving economy with income, distress and momentum?

you really don't get it, do you?

"If my mortgage is equvalent to rent, what difference does that make? Unless you own your home outright, what's the difference?"

well...for starters, if you lose your job, you can walk away at the end of the lease. i suppose you can walk away from your mortgage as well but that used to be considered as not an option. and has the unpleasant side effect of losing whatever equity you started with. no wonder we're in trouble; when people don't see the difference in committment between a rental and a purchase, guess what happens?

no ericho. the improving economy as you see it results from corporations shedding jobs and costs so that they can improve their bottom line. doesn't result in increased income. results in increased unemployment.

when our government continues to warn that unemployment will go from bad to worse, you know you have to worry. they downplay almost everything else.

CC,
No, it's you don't get it.

Your suggested chains of event can still occur. Just because you purchase your place at a cheaper price and in an improving economy, it doesn't guarantee you won't lose your job or get injured or get ill. If that's the case, your argument is to NEVER OWN and rent forever. These risks that you brought up are all associated with home ownership.

try again...we are living in the midst of the greatest economic uncertainty in the last 60 years. yes? now, in the midst of that colossal uncertainty is not the time to go long on real estate...

So, you wait to go long after seeing stability? You telling me to buy high?
Let's face it, you don't get rewarded for buying after the fact. Over the past century, the folks that dip their foot in times of uncertainty are the ones that made out like a bandit. Why would it be different this time?

because housing isn't like other asset classes. it has a twenty-year cycle, roughly. which is why it isn't that hard to time, although the peaks and the troughs are tricky, primarily the peaks. and in credit-based recessions you have even more time at the bottom. and if the geniuses just create another bubble i'd rather be out of it anyway.

"It's official, StreetEasy bears are now on high alert for suicide....make sure you bears don't jump off my new pad!!!! "

Self referential statement of the day!

Why do bulls keep trying to project what they are feeling on others? I'm sorry you want to kill yourself because of your real estate "investment", but, come on... really, now.