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What currencies are you guys holding?

Started by nyc10023
over 17 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008
Discussion about
The dollar has sunk 20ish% in the last 2 months.
Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

Which is partially why stock values are up.

If you own even domestic stock, you have a certain hedge in that as much as 50% of earnings are from abroad from the S&P.

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Response by nyc10023
over 17 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008

Yeah, I don't think equities are a good buy even with the foreign earnings. So here we sit in rapidly devaluing cash.

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Response by w67thstreet
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

$ isn't devaluing if the bulk of your purchases (i.e. housing, education, healthcare, food) are in USD, and you buy hand me down foreign goods.... like Ferraris, Porsches, Beneteaus. :)

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Response by dwell
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008

10023,

Am struggling with the same dilemma. Someone suggested I get a 'wealth manager', but fear they wouldn't do any better. Buy gold, silver & stocks in cos that do the bulk of their bus outside of the US?

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Response by nyc10023
over 17 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008

I suppose, but the USD has been so volatile. Up 20% since TARP proposal, and then down 20% in the same period. W67: we rely on imported goods & materials to a greater extent than you think. What is really made in the U.S., and even if it's made here, to what extent are the materials imported?

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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

some gold, and for now stocks that are commodity based, but be nimble. but i can't do the stocks because of the husband's job. short the ten-year? the foreign markets, other than perhaps a few asian economies (and tricky because they make us look transparent as can be), parts of africa and some south american countries, aren't doing so well, but a good emerging growth fund may offer some growth. i'm opening myself up for some abuse here, but keep your eye on the REIT offerings as well.

but i agree with w67th. i'm finding my dollar going quite a bit further here at home. and the dollar was MUCH weaker last summer, and nobody but we tourists seem to be thinking about it. i think right now wealth retention rather than wealth growth is the new killing it. do your best, but just hold tight and wait for a bit. kind of like real estate.

although, stepping up to the confessional, we're paid in foreign currency, and i couldn't be happier (well i could, i was much happier last summer, but i'm becoming happier again).

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Response by w67thstreet
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

nyc10023.. i would respectfully disagree, yes in the short term prices may spike, but USA has more resources (food, energy, shelter :p) than all other developed nations.... you want to speak about the whims of currency xchange.. look at Japan, 10% of their land is agri... hence their love of Sushi and Whales.

If you travel alot.... well there's always mexico :)

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Response by w67thstreet
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

aboutready... 3 second hug... all the Kool kids are doing it...

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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

10023, i don't know the rates against the asian countries, although I think China has kept that pretty fixed, and the yen is a whole different story, but against the euro i believe the it was 1.6something euros to the dollar last summer, vs. a recent surge to 1.4 maybe, and 2.0 pounds to the dollar, vs. 1.61 now. Not too long ago i nearly cried when the dollar hit 1.37 to the pound. but the bounce back up is still quite a bit below 06/08.

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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

w67th, 5 seconds back at you, and that makes me even Kooler.

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Response by patient09
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

well the trade we have been in and is working, don't be hating, yes we have been right, not always, but over the last 4 months, very right...we like the following and are positioned accordingly...EWZ, FXI, DBA and FXA

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Response by crescent22
over 17 years ago
Posts: 953
Member since: Apr 2008

For a country with a similar debt issuance problem to the U.S., Britain's pound looks like an unjustified run back up to 1.61 (understanding it's a speculation currency in this macro situation, but still.....). It's even up nicely against the Euro to 1.14. We have some earnings in the pound and may look to short FXB as a hedge, either directly or with puts (may be hard to borrow).

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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

crescent, interesting. but i think the brits are much more willing to address their issues, take over and purge. they have almost the opposite problem as we have. we have too much ability to fluff, they descend into despondency rather rapidly.

and one year ago we had the same relative debt issuance problems, and the pound was 2. what changed to make the dollar so attractive? perhaps the need for lower oil prices?

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Response by marco_m
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2481
Member since: Dec 2008

i keep everything on my metro card. the 10% bonus is free money

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Response by trembling
over 17 years ago
Posts: 33
Member since: May 2009

Good thing we have fluid foreign exchange markets.

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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

marco, that was good for a definite involuntary snort. funny.

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Response by marco_m
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2481
Member since: Dec 2008

hahahah thx!

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Response by crescent22
over 17 years ago
Posts: 953
Member since: Apr 2008

> and one year ago we had the same relative debt issuance problems, and the pound was 2. what changed to make the dollar so attractive? perhaps the need for lower oil prices?

Safe haven- financial flows fled emerging markets since the money is First World-based anyway.
It's a constant debate whether the dollar drives oil or the converse.

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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

i understand the concept, crescent, i doubt the accuracy. the pound and the euro are not exactly second or third-world currencies.

i don't think that dollar drives oil or the reverse. i think that at certain times the markets aka the governments may decide what needs to be driven.

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Response by Rhino86
over 17 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006

You spend in dollars... I guess you can own commodities in some measure... I've never felt qualified to pick foreign currencies. Along the lines of owning commodities, maybe you consider the currencies of commodity rich countries like Canada and Australia. The minute I started entertaining Schiff and buying 'hard' non-US currency funds, the dollar ripped.

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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

currency trading seems to me to have zero basis in anything these days (maybe just my ignorance). if you're interested, try following MacroMan. even if you don't get the answer you want, you'll be amused along the way.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9913
Member since: Mar 2009

I am forced to keep a certain amount of money in Dominican pesos.

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Response by alpine292
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

I own Zimbabwae dollars. It's wonderful. I never have to buy toilet paper and I have fulfilled my dream of taking a bath in money.

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Response by manhattanfox
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1275
Member since: Sep 2007

fxa

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Response by youngbuck
over 17 years ago
Posts: 39
Member since: Apr 2009

Owning Zimbabwean dollars is about as good as owning Manhattan real estate right now.

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