Not sure this has been discussed yet, but thought the indications on NYC real estate (usually from Miller Samuels' input) give a probable forecast of the 2Q09 RE reports: "New York City's apartment sales and rental markets have continued to soften since the last report. A leading appraisal firm notes that market conditions continue to deteriorate -- particularly for new buildings, many of which... [more]
Not sure this has been discussed yet, but thought the indications on NYC real estate (usually from Miller Samuels' input) give a probable forecast of the 2Q09 RE reports:
"New York City's apartment sales and rental markets have continued to soften since the last report. A leading appraisal firm notes that market conditions continue to deteriorate -- particularly for new buildings, many of which are less than half occupied. Sales activity is reported to be down 50 percent from a year ago in Manhattan, and down 25-30 percent in Brooklyn and Queens. Prices for Manhattan apartment resales are reported to have fallen by roughly another 5 percent since the first quarter and are running roughly 25 percent lower than a year ago, though price moves have been quite erratic due to thin volume. Manhattan's rental market has also continued to soften, partly reflecting increased supply, as many landlords are renting out units that are not selling. Asking rents are reported to be down 5-10 percent from a year earlier in May, but the decline in effective rents has been much steeper due to the widespread and growing practice of waiving of rental fees and offering one or more months of free rent."
[less]
Response by Topper
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008
Good posting, angler!
Thanks.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
interesting. While NYC's sales volume continues to decline, sales are flattening out/ increasing in New Jersey:
An authority on New Jersey's housing industry maintains that the market for new homes continues to slacken but that the market for existing homes appears to have stabilized; sales volume has reportedly picked up as sellers have reduced prices, which are now running an estimated 12-15 percent below a year ago. One real estate agent in suburban New Jersey reports that the market for more moderately-priced homes (under $600K) has picked up somewhat in recent months--some sellers that have reduced their prices noticeably have received multiple offers.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by sledgehammer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 899
Member since: Mar 2009
Who's the authority on New Jersey's housing industry ? Your cousin?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by cfranch
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 270
Member since: Feb 2009
"An authority on New Jersey's housing industry"
oh you mean a self-serving broker. alpine i thought you didn't live in NJ. this is how rumors get started.
great post angler. declining prices and thinner volume in the stock market means lower prices ahead. same is going to happen for RE.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
The mob boss guy down in Hoboken. Why, you have a problem with his data? When he says the market has stablized, IT HAS STABLIZED. Got it???
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
I own in NJ. I do not live in NJ. If nobdy here knows the difference between the two, then you guys are dumber than I thought.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9885
Member since: Mar 2009
"I do not live in NJ"
Because that would be an oxymoron? ;)
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by angler7
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 193
Member since: Oct 2007
As far as Manhattan is concerned the trending suggests a valuation cliff that sellers are going to have to adjust to in the relatively slow summer months, and into the remainder of this year. With resale pricing reset at 25% off prior year values, brokers acknowledging trades happening in the 30% off peak range, and emboldened buyers looking for deals beyond published marks, it should make for an interesting trading period.
Perhaps a beginning of the next step down. And, this doesn't even account for the concerns raised by urbandigs and others over buyer-related factors such as cost of credit, its availability, bonus contraction, job insecurity, etc.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by falcogold1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008
New Jersey...taking it on the chin, hurting you PCB soaked soil's feelings. Hey be kind to NJ.
With out NJ how would we get anywhere? Where would upwardly mobile people commited to big hair live?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
I love it... Alpine goes on a thread about NYC RE, then talks about Jersey prices... and then he wonders why we all know he lives in Jersey.
Good posting, angler!
Thanks.
interesting. While NYC's sales volume continues to decline, sales are flattening out/ increasing in New Jersey:
An authority on New Jersey's housing industry maintains that the market for new homes continues to slacken but that the market for existing homes appears to have stabilized; sales volume has reportedly picked up as sellers have reduced prices, which are now running an estimated 12-15 percent below a year ago. One real estate agent in suburban New Jersey reports that the market for more moderately-priced homes (under $600K) has picked up somewhat in recent months--some sellers that have reduced their prices noticeably have received multiple offers.
Who's the authority on New Jersey's housing industry ? Your cousin?
"An authority on New Jersey's housing industry"
oh you mean a self-serving broker. alpine i thought you didn't live in NJ. this is how rumors get started.
great post angler. declining prices and thinner volume in the stock market means lower prices ahead. same is going to happen for RE.
The mob boss guy down in Hoboken. Why, you have a problem with his data? When he says the market has stablized, IT HAS STABLIZED. Got it???
I own in NJ. I do not live in NJ. If nobdy here knows the difference between the two, then you guys are dumber than I thought.
"I do not live in NJ"
Because that would be an oxymoron? ;)
As far as Manhattan is concerned the trending suggests a valuation cliff that sellers are going to have to adjust to in the relatively slow summer months, and into the remainder of this year. With resale pricing reset at 25% off prior year values, brokers acknowledging trades happening in the 30% off peak range, and emboldened buyers looking for deals beyond published marks, it should make for an interesting trading period.
Perhaps a beginning of the next step down. And, this doesn't even account for the concerns raised by urbandigs and others over buyer-related factors such as cost of credit, its availability, bonus contraction, job insecurity, etc.
New Jersey...taking it on the chin, hurting you PCB soaked soil's feelings. Hey be kind to NJ.
With out NJ how would we get anywhere? Where would upwardly mobile people commited to big hair live?
I love it... Alpine goes on a thread about NYC RE, then talks about Jersey prices... and then he wonders why we all know he lives in Jersey.