Could Bargain Basement Prices be coming to NYC???

40% decline on the way according to experts. If they are half right 20%.

In real estate, there is no such thing as an "expert."

I guess we shall see GoingDown but hey if they're right, you could not have picked a better screen name :) I'm looking forward to seeing the 2nd quarter numbers.

ditto on 2nd qtr... can't wait...

remember, 2nd quarter volumes are still down significantly....

3yr lag to trough.... fall 2011?

I like that -58% figure to return to the price to income ratio of the late 1990s.

"In real estate, there is no such thing as an "expert." "

I hope to meet you some day in Bankruptcy Court and prove you wrong.

David Goldsmith
Expert Witness, US Bankruptcy Court - Southern District of New York

Wow, a tough-boy. Come by 86th & Madison and I can learn you some manners, boy.

expert witnesses are a total waste. It's just a way for the attorney to milk the client in uneccessary fees.

Sure, because attorneys profit so much off of the fees the expert witnesses charge.

So I guess on the internet we're about equal. One expert witness and one expert witless.

REO...

Touche

> "In real estate, there is no such thing as an "expert." "

Sure there is, Robert Shiller.

The problem is all the idiots who work in real estate and don't know who he is.

As far as expertise, there is a big difference between correctly predicting short term price movements and simply understanding what is cheap and what is not cheap (historical perspective). That's what 99% of the arguments on this seem to boil down to. There are some who don't seem to want to appreciate the role of a credit bubble in (real estate) asset prices circa 2003-2007.

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

really interesting 3 page article. see far left column and read on.

"On the coasts, yearly rents are less than 3% of purchase price and mortgage rates are 6%, so it costs twice as much to borrow money for a mortgage than it does to borrow (rent) the house itself. "

Effing bingo. Although yearly rents aren't 3%, they are more... (Yearly rents - comparable maintenances)/asking price = 3-4% in New York.

"As far as expertise, there is a big difference between correctly predicting short term price movements and simply understanding what is cheap and what is not cheap (historical perspective). That's what 99% of the arguments on this seem to boil down to. There are some who don't seem to want to appreciate the role of a credit bubble in (real estate) asset prices circa 2003-2007. "

Correct.

You don't have to be a trained chef to know you don't put your head in the oven.