Since beginning to save units that reach my criteria to a folder about a year and a half ago I've seen the total number of units change in ways that seem to reflect the overall market. My criteria is a 2 bedroom or convertible JR4, more than 800 square feet, less than 850 psf on th UES. Since I filter them myself after I get my general listings updates, I'm pretty confident it's an accurate set,... [more]
Since beginning to save units that reach my criteria to a folder about a year and a half ago I've seen the total number of units change in ways that seem to reflect the overall market.
My criteria is a 2 bedroom or convertible JR4, more than 800 square feet, less than 850 psf on th UES. Since I filter them myself after I get my general listings updates, I'm pretty confident it's an accurate set, although obviously a small slice of the market.
At first, I had 25-30 listings. Over the next year, the number grew pretty steadily, with a quiet period last winter. In May, the number peaked at about 100 listings. Since then, it has dropped to 84. I took a quick look at the number which are no longer on the market (I move them to a different folder), and it looks like about half went into contract and half were taken off the market (although I'm not sure how accurate that aspect of SE is).
Anyone else seeing patterns in their saved sales?
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Response by wishhouse
about 17 years ago
Posts: 417
Member since: Jan 2008
Down to 78
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Response by djradon
about 17 years ago
Posts: 74
Member since: Jun 2008
what's your recommended analysis technique?
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Response by wishhouse
about 17 years ago
Posts: 417
Member since: Jan 2008
There's more than one way to interpret your question-
My thought on this experiment was as follows: I know my criteria, and I'm vigilant in keeping my saved sales folder to only those things that match my narrow search scope. We talk a lot on this site about comps, and I'd venture to say that my saved sales represents a set of comps. It's a slightly different way of slicing and dicing the data. Rather than taking a set of representative apartments and seeing how the prices change, I'm taking a specific set of characteristics within a price range that meet my needs, and seeing how many of them there are.
For my specific set, my general search criteria is under 700K at least 800 square feet with an under 15 minute commute to midtown east (Manhattan only). I manually eliminate those
- That can't be converted to 2 bedrooms
- That have higher maintenance than matches the apt + amenities (disclose personal bias towards large space and fewere amenities here)
- That are over-renovated for the price range
So, the ones I save are not ones I would buy (because it's still cheaper to rent), but the ones I want to keep an eye on, as they fit my numbers in terms of affordability and basic requirements.
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Response by wishhouse
about 17 years ago
Posts: 417
Member since: Jan 2008
If you want me to be more specific about how I throw away listings that meet my search but not my actual criteria, let me know. Or how they go from the "Saved Sales" to the "Potential" list.
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Response by UES_Buyer
about 17 years ago
Posts: 212
Member since: Dec 2008
Of the ones that have gone into contract, do you know at what price and what discount off ask? How long have they generally stayed on the market?
Down to 78
what's your recommended analysis technique?
There's more than one way to interpret your question-
My thought on this experiment was as follows: I know my criteria, and I'm vigilant in keeping my saved sales folder to only those things that match my narrow search scope. We talk a lot on this site about comps, and I'd venture to say that my saved sales represents a set of comps. It's a slightly different way of slicing and dicing the data. Rather than taking a set of representative apartments and seeing how the prices change, I'm taking a specific set of characteristics within a price range that meet my needs, and seeing how many of them there are.
For my specific set, my general search criteria is under 700K at least 800 square feet with an under 15 minute commute to midtown east (Manhattan only). I manually eliminate those
- That can't be converted to 2 bedrooms
- That have higher maintenance than matches the apt + amenities (disclose personal bias towards large space and fewere amenities here)
- That are over-renovated for the price range
So, the ones I save are not ones I would buy (because it's still cheaper to rent), but the ones I want to keep an eye on, as they fit my numbers in terms of affordability and basic requirements.
If you want me to be more specific about how I throw away listings that meet my search but not my actual criteria, let me know. Or how they go from the "Saved Sales" to the "Potential" list.
Of the ones that have gone into contract, do you know at what price and what discount off ask? How long have they generally stayed on the market?