(BN) Brooklyn Home Prices Decline 16% as NYC Unemployment Increases
Started by marco_m
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2481
Member since: Dec 2008
Discussion about
Brooklyn Home Prices Decline 16% as NYC Unemployment Increases 2009-07-16 04:01:01.2 GMT By Oshrat Carmiel July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Brooklyn home prices fell 16 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier and sales of new condominiums slid by almost half as New York City unemployment rose to the highest since 1997. The median price of all properties, including condos, co- ops, and one- to... [more]
Brooklyn Home Prices Decline 16% as NYC Unemployment Increases
2009-07-16 04:01:01.2 GMT
By Oshrat Carmiel
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Brooklyn home prices fell 16 percent
in the second quarter from a year earlier and sales of new
condominiums slid by almost half as New York City unemployment
rose to the highest since 1997.
The median price of all properties, including condos, co-
ops, and one- to three-family homes, dropped to $441,090,
appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas
Elliman Real Estate said in a report today. The decline is the
biggest since values began falling there in 2007’s fourth
quarter and the most since Miller Samuel began tracking the data
six years ago.
Unemployment in New York City climbed to 8.7 percent in May
as Wall Street losses and asset write downs topped $1.47
trillion worldwide. By 2010, City Comptroller William Thompson
forecasts the number of unemployed New Yorkers will hit a 15-
year high. Transactions are falling as banks restrict lending,
said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel Inc.
“Rising unemployment is clearly impacting the level of
demand,” Miller said in an interview. Banks are requiring
“larger down payments, much more onerous terms. There doesn’t
seem to be a noticeable easing or improvement in lending
practices,” he said.
Sales in Brooklyn slid 30 percent to 1,428 properties in
the second quarter from a year earlier. The unsold inventory
rose to 6,330 and it took sellers an average of 146 days to find
a buyer, according to the report.
New Condominium Rout
Newly developed condos in neighborhoods including
Williamsburg fared the worst in the Miller Samuel-Prudential
survey. The median price dropped 15 percent to $491,891 and
sales plunged by 48 percent from a year earlier.
Developers including Toll Brothers Inc., the largest luxury
homebuilder, cut prices in Brooklyn as a flood of apartments hit
the market in the recession.
Sales of all condos declined 46 percent from a year
earlier, according to the report. The overall median for condos
fell 7.7 percent to $475,283. Condo buyers hold the deed to
their property. Co-op owners get shares in a corporation that
controls the building.
The luxury market, defined as the top ten percent of all
sales in the borough, fell 18 percent to a median price of
$983,622. The number of sales fell 30 percent to 142 and the
listing discount was 7.6 percent.
Prices for one- to three-family homes in northwest
Brooklyn, including neighborhoods such as Park Slope and Carroll
Gardens, declined by 18 percent to a median price of $980,000.
One-family houses declined 39 percent to a median of $800,000
and three-family units fell 18 percent to $1.1 million. Two-
family houses rose by 4.6 percent to a median of $965,000.
In Queens, home values declined 14 percent to a median of
$362,000 in the second quarter, Miller Samuel and Prudential
said in a separate report released today. Transactions in that
borough declined by 45 percent, to 2,129 in the second quarter.
For Related News and Information:
Luxury real estate resources: LXRE
Top stories on New York City: TNYC
Bloomberg housing and construction data: HSST
Existing home prices: ETSLTOTL GP
Stories on the U.S. property industry: TNI US REL
Stories on the homebuilding industry: NI HOM
Top Bloomberg News real estate stories: TOPR
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Just as predicted, Brooklyn a few months behind but just as painful.
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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
Hold on there, cowboy. Market's definitely down, but I don't know how anyone can say "just as painful." Volume down 30% YoY (and up 20% QoQ if you prefer) in Brooklyn, whereas it was what 50+% in Manhattan? That's quite a difference. Median resale price down 17% YoY (8% QoQ), also less than in Manhattan. If you're right, the trends will continue a bit longer in Brooklyn, but we're not there yet, so let's not get too jumpy.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
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Yes, numbers are lower because - as I said - its a few months behind. I think if you chart the dive by quarter, its actually a little worse than Manhattan post the first bad Manhattan quarter.
I think we're seeing the Manahttan curve, possibly worse, but a couple months delayed.
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Response by petrfitz
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2533
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BJW did u not see that Miller Samuels data found Williamsburg fared the worst? Again is this only me or every news source and industry analyst calling W burg the worst possible RE investment?
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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
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petrfitz, you knucklehead, volumes and prices in the north region (not just Williamsburg - you should check your facts) actually did better than overall. Are you not able to read numbers properly?
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Response by tanker
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 70
Member since: Jul 2008
bjw 33 minutes ago: "there's no need for the snide comments"
bjw 5 minutes ago: "petrfitz, you knucklehead"
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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
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tanker, are you familiar with petrfitz? I mean, at all? Are you him (I surmised this before, actually)?
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Response by evnyc
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1844
Member since: Aug 2008
Bjw's right that the Brooklyn market has not been dragged down as badly. Given how bad things are in Williamsburg, I would not be surprised to find that Brooklyn Heights and prime Park Slope are more or less holding their own. It'll be interesting to see what happens for the rest of the year.
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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
evnyc, it's tough to know given how Miller Samuel kind of lumps a bunch of neighborhoods together in that "northwest" category (stretches from the Heights to Windsor Terrace), but the numbers are slightly worse there than in the area that includes Williamsburg, actually: median sales price down 12% QoQ, down 14% YoY, and volumes fluctuating quite a bit in northwest, vs median sales price down 7% QoQ, down 9% YoY, and volumes showing similar trend but less extreme in north. I don't think that's holding its own, but doing better than Manhattan thus far either way.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
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"Again is this only me or every news source and industry analyst calling W burg the worst possible RE investment?"
nO.
Nationwide, they pretty much universally picked Lake Las Vegas.
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Response by sledgehammer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 899
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Numbers of sales in Cobble Hill in May: 1
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
> Volume down 30% YoY (and up 20% QoQ if you prefer) in Brooklyn, whereas it was what 50+% in
> Manhattan?
Which also means it was down about 50% last quarter from peak. Brooklyn got nailed, too, the timing has just been different.
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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
nyc10022, you're right. Volume has gotten whacked in Brooklyn pretty good, but with weird fluctuations, so the timing and trends have been different it seems. Pricing is still a different story, but time will tell how closely it mirrors Manhattan.
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Response by mutombonyc
almost 17 years ago
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I LOVE talking to nyc10022 :o).
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
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> nyc10022, you're right.
Yes, I know.
Glad you're finally picking up on that.
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Response by JKB
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 162
Member since: Nov 2007
I thought this sale was kinda interesting in a great Brooklyn Heights location:
A smallish, but solid, Brooklyn Heights 2 BR sold for $600,000, more than 20% off its initial ask and a 15% discount from its final ask of $699,000 (forgive me if my numbers are a little off - I'm working from memory since my work computer is blocking me from seeing the original listing, for some reason).
I think both the sale price and the discount from final ask are notable. IMO, this is a $700K+ apartment a year ago, and the sellers obviously were willing to deal.
This would probably even qualify as a successful lowball bid.
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Response by tina24hour
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 720
Member since: Jun 2008
I'll be very interested to see the YoY numbers for the third quarter. I'm frankly surprised by the steady volume of properties moving into contract during what has been, traditionally, a bit of a slow period. We're seeing lots of new buyers entering the marketplace (yes, some for Williamsburg, too), and recent sellers trading up.
I don't have an explanation - dead cat bounce? More aggressive pricing? Sideline buyers getting back in due to lower interest rates? I really can't say. These ain't the boom times, thank heavens, but we're busy out here in Brooklyn.
Tina
(Brooklyn broker)
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Response by tina24hour
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 720
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Aaaaand:
According to Streeteasy, there were 6 recorded sales in Cobble Hill in June. There are 71 available sale listings. So, what, a year's worth of inventory? Not bad.
Tina
(Brooklyn broker)
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Response by JKB
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 162
Member since: Nov 2007
Tina - Urban Digs seems to think that the current wave in activity is waning, and that most of the buy-now sideliners have done their deals. Thoughts?
I've certainly seen a lot of Brooklyn places go into contract (we'll see about pricing when data comes out), but now I'm seeing quite a few price cuts from places that went on the market in March (or after), and haven't sold. That suggests to me that a number of places didn't get their hoped-for price, but may be a little late to the party in price-cutting, if buyers are dropping off.
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Response by tina24hour
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 720
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JKB: Noah may be having that experience in Manhattan - I'm not sensing it here. As with the delay in pricing declines, our uptick in activity might be behind the Manhattan curve. I had a bunch of sideliners come out in April/May, some of whom decided not to buy. This wave seems a little different. We'll see. If interest rates jack back up we'll probably see it subside. But who knows, really?
Tina
(Brooklyn broker)
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Response by cleanslate
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 346
Member since: Mar 2008
When we were looking, we looked everywhere in Brooklyn...not anymore. I'm only interested right now in Brooklyn Heights if we get serious again. For the meantime, we're renting in Manhattan until prices become realistic. I still don't get Williamsburg either. :)
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Response by falcogold1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008
Just a little note on Wburg. After many years of reading and watching I did the unthinkable and crossed the bridge to check it out. I an a Manhattan primadona...this I will admit. What would make you live in Wburg is beyond me. If I was called upon to create Purgatory it would look and feel exactly like Wburg.The only explination for picking this place is financial. I can't afford to live ANYWHERE else so I'm stuck here. As for the hippsters...that's about the best I can say about that. As an investment, I have no idea. As a place to live...examine the actions of your last life and ask yourself what you did to deserve Wburg. I think I saw the reencarnations of Stalin, Hitler and Mao working just under the bridge disassembling refrigerators.
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Response by liulide
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 36
Member since: Jan 2009
i really don't understand people who swear by manhattan, which by its nature is very transient. i've lived in manhattan from 97 to 06, and williamsburg today is alot closer to the east village that i remember that east village as it exists today. EV today is more like meatpacking east. i guess if you're the UES/classic 7/dalton school kind of person. but for my money, bk heights beats the pants off any manhattan neighborhood.
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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
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falco, that's the beauty of this city. Different neighborhoods appeal to different people. Your post is funny, but I assume you're exaggerating to make a point. Purgatory (at least according to Dante) isn't a bad place at all by the way.
That may account for new buyers. Agree that the data is fuzzy, but my observation has been that prime areas seem to be puttering along. Reasonably priced apartments in BH keep contract even before I can get to the open house; I'd love to see yoy data on specific neighborhoods.
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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
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evnyc, definitely. Things can change a lot from building to building. Would love to see neighborhood-specific data, though I understand why it isn't really out there - stats can get really wacky with such small sample sizes. Take sledgehammer's comment that there was only 1 sale in Cobble Hill in May (2 actually, according to Streeteasy). That's obviously very low, but would be important to explain how small the neighborhood is or what historical averages are. Just throwing a number out there like that, by itself, doesn't really say much.
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Response by evnyc
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1844
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Very true, but it would be nice to be able to contextualize neighborhood-specific data within the larger story. I'd expect Windsor Terrace to decline more than BH, but without finer data I can't make any sort of argument for it, so I just have to rely on the listings I've been watching.
JKB, I saw that apartment; I think the problem was that it doesn't get good light and was ambitiously priced at the outset. If you're interested, I can post some of the apartments I've been watching that have gone into contract. A number of them have gone surprisingly quickly, but there are definitely a few outliers.
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Response by JKB
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 162
Member since: Nov 2007
evnyc - good to hear your comments on that Pierrepont place. I still think it never would've dropped to $600K in mid-2008, even with drawbacks. And the sale, to me, reflects the seller's desire to cash out NOW, rather than hope for a better market in two, three or six months. Who knows, though?
But really nice places are certainly still selling in BH. What do you expect? It's a tiny nabe and a great place to be. If you want to post a few examples, I'd be happy to see them.
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Response by JKB
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 162
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Just for fun - this place is no comp for anything, it's too unique a place, but ...
The first thing you notice is the torrid story of the aspirational original pricing on the part of the sellers. The place starts at $929,000 in March 2008, gets pulled, re-lists at $699,000 in November 2008, and then - after another price cut - finally closes a few days ago for $570,000.
That's a 38.6% discount from its original ask! Wow.
But then you see that the maintenance is $2,074/month.
THEN, you see the kitchen! Wow.
So, is this a good deal? I honestly can't say. It feels like you're basically renting the kitchen for $800/month. But it is a really nice kitchen ...and a pretty nice place.
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Response by evnyc
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1844
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I watched that one for a while, JKB - it's a big cut, but how do you live in an essentially windowless hallway? I'm sure it felt like a good deal to whomever bought it, but I would not have made the same decision.
And before anyone carps at me that they haven't closed, yes, I know that - I delete them when they've closed, so I don't have any of them hanging around.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
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"Tina - Urban Digs seems to think that the current wave in activity is waning, and that most of the buy-now sideliners have done their deals. Thoughts?"
Can't say its surprising. There might have been some pent up demand, but generally, the general populace (not the folks here) is becoming increasing negative on RE... given that the declines seem "new" to them.
Just as predicted, Brooklyn a few months behind but just as painful.
Hold on there, cowboy. Market's definitely down, but I don't know how anyone can say "just as painful." Volume down 30% YoY (and up 20% QoQ if you prefer) in Brooklyn, whereas it was what 50+% in Manhattan? That's quite a difference. Median resale price down 17% YoY (8% QoQ), also less than in Manhattan. If you're right, the trends will continue a bit longer in Brooklyn, but we're not there yet, so let's not get too jumpy.
Yes, numbers are lower because - as I said - its a few months behind. I think if you chart the dive by quarter, its actually a little worse than Manhattan post the first bad Manhattan quarter.
I think we're seeing the Manahttan curve, possibly worse, but a couple months delayed.
BJW did u not see that Miller Samuels data found Williamsburg fared the worst? Again is this only me or every news source and industry analyst calling W burg the worst possible RE investment?
petrfitz, you knucklehead, volumes and prices in the north region (not just Williamsburg - you should check your facts) actually did better than overall. Are you not able to read numbers properly?
bjw 33 minutes ago: "there's no need for the snide comments"
bjw 5 minutes ago: "petrfitz, you knucklehead"
tanker, are you familiar with petrfitz? I mean, at all? Are you him (I surmised this before, actually)?
Bjw's right that the Brooklyn market has not been dragged down as badly. Given how bad things are in Williamsburg, I would not be surprised to find that Brooklyn Heights and prime Park Slope are more or less holding their own. It'll be interesting to see what happens for the rest of the year.
evnyc, it's tough to know given how Miller Samuel kind of lumps a bunch of neighborhoods together in that "northwest" category (stretches from the Heights to Windsor Terrace), but the numbers are slightly worse there than in the area that includes Williamsburg, actually: median sales price down 12% QoQ, down 14% YoY, and volumes fluctuating quite a bit in northwest, vs median sales price down 7% QoQ, down 9% YoY, and volumes showing similar trend but less extreme in north. I don't think that's holding its own, but doing better than Manhattan thus far either way.
"Again is this only me or every news source and industry analyst calling W burg the worst possible RE investment?"
nO.
Nationwide, they pretty much universally picked Lake Las Vegas.
Numbers of sales in Cobble Hill in May: 1
> Volume down 30% YoY (and up 20% QoQ if you prefer) in Brooklyn, whereas it was what 50+% in
> Manhattan?
Which also means it was down about 50% last quarter from peak. Brooklyn got nailed, too, the timing has just been different.
nyc10022, you're right. Volume has gotten whacked in Brooklyn pretty good, but with weird fluctuations, so the timing and trends have been different it seems. Pricing is still a different story, but time will tell how closely it mirrors Manhattan.
I LOVE talking to nyc10022 :o).
> nyc10022, you're right.
Yes, I know.
Glad you're finally picking up on that.
I thought this sale was kinda interesting in a great Brooklyn Heights location:
www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/344987-coop-20-pierrepont-street-brooklyn-heights-brooklyn
A smallish, but solid, Brooklyn Heights 2 BR sold for $600,000, more than 20% off its initial ask and a 15% discount from its final ask of $699,000 (forgive me if my numbers are a little off - I'm working from memory since my work computer is blocking me from seeing the original listing, for some reason).
I think both the sale price and the discount from final ask are notable. IMO, this is a $700K+ apartment a year ago, and the sellers obviously were willing to deal.
This would probably even qualify as a successful lowball bid.
I'll be very interested to see the YoY numbers for the third quarter. I'm frankly surprised by the steady volume of properties moving into contract during what has been, traditionally, a bit of a slow period. We're seeing lots of new buyers entering the marketplace (yes, some for Williamsburg, too), and recent sellers trading up.
I don't have an explanation - dead cat bounce? More aggressive pricing? Sideline buyers getting back in due to lower interest rates? I really can't say. These ain't the boom times, thank heavens, but we're busy out here in Brooklyn.
Tina
(Brooklyn broker)
Aaaaand:
According to Streeteasy, there were 6 recorded sales in Cobble Hill in June. There are 71 available sale listings. So, what, a year's worth of inventory? Not bad.
Tina
(Brooklyn broker)
Tina - Urban Digs seems to think that the current wave in activity is waning, and that most of the buy-now sideliners have done their deals. Thoughts?
I've certainly seen a lot of Brooklyn places go into contract (we'll see about pricing when data comes out), but now I'm seeing quite a few price cuts from places that went on the market in March (or after), and haven't sold. That suggests to me that a number of places didn't get their hoped-for price, but may be a little late to the party in price-cutting, if buyers are dropping off.
JKB: Noah may be having that experience in Manhattan - I'm not sensing it here. As with the delay in pricing declines, our uptick in activity might be behind the Manhattan curve. I had a bunch of sideliners come out in April/May, some of whom decided not to buy. This wave seems a little different. We'll see. If interest rates jack back up we'll probably see it subside. But who knows, really?
Tina
(Brooklyn broker)
When we were looking, we looked everywhere in Brooklyn...not anymore. I'm only interested right now in Brooklyn Heights if we get serious again. For the meantime, we're renting in Manhattan until prices become realistic. I still don't get Williamsburg either. :)
Just a little note on Wburg. After many years of reading and watching I did the unthinkable and crossed the bridge to check it out. I an a Manhattan primadona...this I will admit. What would make you live in Wburg is beyond me. If I was called upon to create Purgatory it would look and feel exactly like Wburg.The only explination for picking this place is financial. I can't afford to live ANYWHERE else so I'm stuck here. As for the hippsters...that's about the best I can say about that. As an investment, I have no idea. As a place to live...examine the actions of your last life and ask yourself what you did to deserve Wburg. I think I saw the reencarnations of Stalin, Hitler and Mao working just under the bridge disassembling refrigerators.
i really don't understand people who swear by manhattan, which by its nature is very transient. i've lived in manhattan from 97 to 06, and williamsburg today is alot closer to the east village that i remember that east village as it exists today. EV today is more like meatpacking east. i guess if you're the UES/classic 7/dalton school kind of person. but for my money, bk heights beats the pants off any manhattan neighborhood.
falco, that's the beauty of this city. Different neighborhoods appeal to different people. Your post is funny, but I assume you're exaggerating to make a point. Purgatory (at least according to Dante) isn't a bad place at all by the way.
According to the NYMag article front and center on SE, some buildings in WB have had the ability to price aggressively while others simply can't cut.
http://nymag.com/realestate/features/57904/?mid=streeteasy
That may account for new buyers. Agree that the data is fuzzy, but my observation has been that prime areas seem to be puttering along. Reasonably priced apartments in BH keep contract even before I can get to the open house; I'd love to see yoy data on specific neighborhoods.
evnyc, definitely. Things can change a lot from building to building. Would love to see neighborhood-specific data, though I understand why it isn't really out there - stats can get really wacky with such small sample sizes. Take sledgehammer's comment that there was only 1 sale in Cobble Hill in May (2 actually, according to Streeteasy). That's obviously very low, but would be important to explain how small the neighborhood is or what historical averages are. Just throwing a number out there like that, by itself, doesn't really say much.
Very true, but it would be nice to be able to contextualize neighborhood-specific data within the larger story. I'd expect Windsor Terrace to decline more than BH, but without finer data I can't make any sort of argument for it, so I just have to rely on the listings I've been watching.
JKB, I saw that apartment; I think the problem was that it doesn't get good light and was ambitiously priced at the outset. If you're interested, I can post some of the apartments I've been watching that have gone into contract. A number of them have gone surprisingly quickly, but there are definitely a few outliers.
evnyc - good to hear your comments on that Pierrepont place. I still think it never would've dropped to $600K in mid-2008, even with drawbacks. And the sale, to me, reflects the seller's desire to cash out NOW, rather than hope for a better market in two, three or six months. Who knows, though?
But really nice places are certainly still selling in BH. What do you expect? It's a tiny nabe and a great place to be. If you want to post a few examples, I'd be happy to see them.
Just for fun - this place is no comp for anything, it's too unique a place, but ...
streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/209560-coop-111-hicks-street-brooklyn-heights-brooklyn
The first thing you notice is the torrid story of the aspirational original pricing on the part of the sellers. The place starts at $929,000 in March 2008, gets pulled, re-lists at $699,000 in November 2008, and then - after another price cut - finally closes a few days ago for $570,000.
That's a 38.6% discount from its original ask! Wow.
But then you see that the maintenance is $2,074/month.
THEN, you see the kitchen! Wow.
So, is this a good deal? I honestly can't say. It feels like you're basically renting the kitchen for $800/month. But it is a really nice kitchen ...and a pretty nice place.
I watched that one for a while, JKB - it's a big cut, but how do you live in an essentially windowless hallway? I'm sure it felt like a good deal to whomever bought it, but I would not have made the same decision.
This one, however, I love:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/392545-coop-45-pineapple-street-brooklyn-heights-brooklyn
One bedroom, reasonably priced:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/396277-coop-59-pineapple-street-brooklyn-heights-brooklyn
This one took a wee tiny haircut but has been in contract for a while:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/373253-coop-135-willow-street-brooklyn-heights-brooklyn
Another 2-br I quite like:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/374693-coop-135-willow-street-brooklyn-heights-brooklyn
Not quite as speedy but no haircuts required to get a deal:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/378172-coop-2-grace-court-brooklyn-heights-brooklyn
And I was rather bummed to watch this one go into contract rather than into my price range:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/373258-coop-184-columbia-heights-brooklyn-heights-brooklyn
And before anyone carps at me that they haven't closed, yes, I know that - I delete them when they've closed, so I don't have any of them hanging around.
"Tina - Urban Digs seems to think that the current wave in activity is waning, and that most of the buy-now sideliners have done their deals. Thoughts?"
Can't say its surprising. There might have been some pent up demand, but generally, the general populace (not the folks here) is becoming increasing negative on RE... given that the declines seem "new" to them.
Half the original price. Now this is a price drop.
3Br
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/393256-condo-315-20th-street-brooklyn