Higher stocks; higher housing; tougher on the consumer; higher unemployment

higher housing?

any stabilization that's been seen in housing has been at the very low end. as julia can tell you that makes it frustrating for people looking for studios, but has little relevance to most of NYC's market. and that stabilization is largely at jeopardy as unemployment rises and defaults increase in all classifications of mortgages. moody's or s&p just downgraded the 2005 and 2006 SUBPRIME mortgages, increasing default estimates by about 7% (ie from 25 to 32%) for each year. the defaults are rapidly spreading to prime and the more exotic loan types.

analysts just raised earnings estimates by 26%. earnings on companies already reporting is down 80% from 2007 and 25% from 2008. with global consumption so low and un and underemployment so high it is hard to see where the 26% increase in earnings will come from, given that companies have improved to the extent that they have by slashing costs to the bone.

miswrote, analysts just raised s&p predictions by 26% based on increased estimated earnings.

David Rosenberg, via www.ritholtz.com

http://watch.bnn.ca/market-morning/july-2009/market-morning-july-24-2009/#clip196705