CNBC Buy NOW?

weird..sam zell was on thier last night saying how now its NY's turn to suffer. go figure

marco, zell has been so wrong that if i were using contrarian indicators i'd say buy.

CNBC? they've never been wrong before. with the exception of maybe a nine-month period it's always been the time to buy!!! before it's too late and you're priced out and mortgage rates skyrocket and your neighbor mr. jones scores the apartment of your dreams because he wasn't a coward and you're being a coward and you'll be sorry and you'll not make as much money as mr. jones, who has a nicer apartment and is thus living a better life. so buy now!!!

granted tribune didnt work out so well, but he sold out of his REIT at a good time. he speaks with alot of common sense so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

I didn't see the CNBC clip, but I suspect they picked up on the same analysis as a recent Forbes "10 best" (or whatever) slideshow showing a few cities (like Phoenix) that have fallen so far that they're possible "buys". Most major cities (and I think this was for metro areas, not prime sections) were still rated "overpriced", including New York.

marco, how timely. but i do agree with him on NYC real estate.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/zell-on-real-estate.html

It's funny seeing the change in sentiment over the past 4 months from the bears.
The argument use to be about how much further does prices fall in NYC. Now, everyone is talking about if the time to buy is now.
I did missed those 40-50% decline to come by Q4 of 2009 debates.

funny comment on Zell. He arguably made the greatest trade in the history of trading when he sold eop. Remember the tribune was opm. so who cares.

when you have huge amounts of money you don't have to be right all the time, p09. so what if he said last year there'd be little difficulty in the CRE markets?

no change in sentiment here. just tired of beating a dead horse. lets just wait and see

i think he was just trying to not rub the buyers nose in the crap they bought from him.

My favorite, recent CNBC moment was about 3 - 4 weeks ago and in a real estate segment they had a package that featured, among other realtors, Dolly Lenz saying the opportunity of a life time yada yada. Then they cut to Larry Kudlow who obviously didn't watch the package. He was very anxious to brag that he had had dinner with Dolly the night before and she confessed to him her serious concerns about NYC real estate. Busted.

p09, funny, but i wonder if he's that sensitive.

apt23, that's hilarious.

I think Mhillqt is referring to http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1198425861&play=1 , in which Dolly Lenz flaps her gums without saying anything, but still hedges her "U" call at the same time so she can't be blamed later.

What's really interesting is the brutal honesty of the Phoenix broker, who says that he thinks -55% isn't enough for that market and it done with its decline.

i think that the smart move is to wait and spend $300K in rent over the next few years while you wait for that $100K drop on that 1 bedroom you are eyeing.

Wow, petrofrizz. Your math gets more abstract all the time. Why continue using numerals when you can use colors or shapes instead?

hmm $5K per month over 5 years of market timing? $300K. unless you are a putz a live in a craptastic studio for $2K per month or ar a liar and claim to have a huge rent controlled loft. Which are you?

I'm all of those things.

I pay $orange per month over square years of market timing. $purple. I am a putz "a" live in a craptastic studio for $yummy per month or "ar" a liar and claim to have a huge rent controlled loft.

wow you can also argue points with spell checking. brilliant

petrfitz, not everyone spends $5k on rent, you know. As alluded to, your math is as fuzzy as a polar bear's nether regions.

yeah total losers who live in carptastic apartments in williamsburg and eat raman noodles and drink pabst dont spend $5K per month in rent. Everyone else who has a good job and doesnt want to live in an outerborroughs crap hole does.

petrozitz, wrong again. I used to live in a full brownstone on Madison in the upper 70s, 4BR/3BA, enormous kitchen, W/D, etc. - total rent was $5k. You're not going to convince anyone that that was a standard Manhattan apartment. What are "raman" noodles by the way? Sounds delicious.

They're half-man, half Egyptian sun god noodles. You eat them in carptastic apartments while fishing for said species.

bjw - the rent your parents paid in the 80's isnt applicable to today.

sorry i dont know how to spell the name of those noodles, i was never poor enough to have to eat that crap.

pterozitz, you mean the rent I paid in 2006 isn't applicable? Sorry you don't think so, but (while we're on the subject of carp), go fish.

Seriously, you've got no argument here. $5k is not standard rent for many many people in this city.

"The argument use to be about how much further does prices fall in NYC. Now, everyone is talking about if the time to buy is now. "

How is it a different argument?. The same bulls were saying "now is the time to buy" before as well... nothing has changed there. And bears are still saying "yes, further to go", no change there.

"i think that the smart move is to wait and spend $300K in rent over the next few years while you wait for that $100K drop on that 1 bedroom you are eyeing."

Only a moron like perfitz misses the $500k loss he had to take in order to "make" his $50k in rent...

and the taxes and maintenance! Thanks for paying those for me, perfitz!

nyc10022 you missed the bottom therefore you are now losing money according to your logic. sucks to be a market timer with dumb logic

> nyc10022 you missed the bottom therefore you are now losing money according to your logic.

Not losing money, just losing opportunity to make some (more).

Of course, it takes a moron like you to think its a bottom! We're still declining, genius! Q3 numbers are already pacing lower than Q2 (from the elliman contract data).

You're STILL losing money (as if you haven't lost enough).

> sucks to be a market timer with dumb logic

Yes, I do feel for you a little. You've made more bad decisions than anyone I've ever known!

ah nyc waffles on his logic. so owners who didnt sell at the absolute top of the market he claims that they lost money. But since he didnt buy at the bottom he then waffles and says that he didnt lose money but lost the opportunity to make money.

so therefore by his logic owners didnt lose money they lost the opportunity to make more money.

what a day trading market timing logic waffling renting loser......

i just spent some time looking for spacious 2 bedrooms/2 baths for less than a million for another thread, accidentally i hit the wrong button and lost the listings i was compiling (and I was up to about 14, with 35 more pages of results to go). but i have to say that the many of the buyers don't seem to have gotten the prices will rise memo. i saw a number of units that were listed at, near or below early 2005 recorded sales prices.

"ah nyc waffles on his logic. so owners who didnt sell at the absolute top of the market he claims that they lost money. But since he didnt buy at the bottom he then waffles and says that he didnt lose money but lost the opportunity to make money."

Perfitz, are you really this stupid?

You have to lie about what I said to make a point?

I DID buy at the bottom in stocks. I made good, good money.

In terms of Manhattan RE, I didn't buy at the bottom, because the bottom hasn't happened yet!

Takes a moron like perfitz to think that buying manhattan RE in 2007 is buying at the bottom!

Sorry, sucker, you're the guy who bought at the top... and its STILL FALLING.

"so therefore by his logic owners didnt lose money they lost the opportunity to make more money."

Nope, they lost money.

Seriously, dude, you need to take a math class and learn how logic works.

So, in the perfitz world...

If you buy something for 20, and its now worth 10, you "made" money.
If you pay 20 each month for something, and someone gives you 10 each month for it, you "made" money.

Maybe this is why communism died? Perfitz and his comrades just couldn't handle the math?!!?

Perfitz, how is that bankrupt Las Vegas "investment" of yours?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aCbacdLSWjCs

Might this pertain to the CNBC article to which you refer? Perhaps real estate was not the specific subject?

Wouldn't be the first time that a RE bull couldn't tell the difference between stocks and RE (except if it supported his pro-RE argument).