For All of the LOSERS WHo Think that Foreclosures Will Spread to Manhattan

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20090805/FREE/908059978

Alpie's not talking about the foreclosures with a capital F, just the ones with a little f.

Alpo is psyched.

He's tired of being the only loser here (except for perfitz).

He's hoping someone joins him.

you bears might as well as just admit that you were wrong. Manhattan is not nor will it be full of foreclosures.

The amazing thing is, the moron chooses to put that post together EXACTLY when the sheffield foreclosure news comes out.

Its like the guy is TRYING to be a moron.

and you can cherry pick all the buidlings you want, but that does not change the fact that the data is not in your favor.

ah...i got it ---i think he's talking about foreskins not foreclosure.

with snaps

"you bears might as well as just admit that you were wrong. "

Alpo, you're saying its time for folks to admit they were wrong?

How about it?

you gonna fess up to such gems..

"MANHATTAN IS NOT DOWN 20%. SHOW ME JUST ONE EXAMPLE!"

???

uh...can you show me another? uh, how about just one more? please.

just stroke his belly 2/3 of the way to his hind legs... watch in amazement as he involuntarily moves his hind leg in rapid fashion.

A cherry here... a cherry there... before you know it, you've got cherry pie!

oy chichuchua!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqFeCLBj06w

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08052009/business/hall_of_shame_183015.htm

"Even after taking tens of billions in bailout aid from Uncle Sam, BofA and dozens of other banks have helped just a tiny fraction -- just 9 percent -- of the desperate 2.7 million homeowners who are eligible for federal help but still face being tossed into the street."

I think after the banks get off the canvas they'll be quick to pay back the TARP and even quicker to turn on the foreclosure machine.

And yes this is national, not NY but it will filter through. The commercial mess has yet to rear it's ugly head. Residential will most likely wallow in it's big brother's mess.

Alpie, alpie, alpie. How many times do we have to go over this. First, New York is a title theory state not a lien theory state. Look that up and get back to us about its implications on foreclosures.

Next, there is no summary foreclosure proceeding under NYS law, as there is under the laws of most other states. No courthouse step auctions. It's a process that can take as long as 2 years. Which gives owners plenty of time to sell before they are foreclosed on.

Third, co-ops are not foreclosed on - tenants are evicted - and therefore, if at all, foreclosure action does not show up in the statistics until after the foreclosure is complete.

Fourth, New York is some 2 years behind the rest of the country, but given the 2-year lag on foreclosures it's unlikely that the figure will ever be material here.

alpie ur like a junkie makin new lows...first it was manhattan nots down 20%...then it was there will never be any foreclosures in manhattan. I kinda feel bad for ya..but not really

Question for (my fellow) bears: What's the point of blathering on in this thread and others about waves of foreclosures coming over the horizon?

There is such an easy argument to be made for further declines based on simple supply and demand, persistently high price/rent ratios (even in the face of declining rents), wealth/income/confidence destruction from the Wall Street mess and its ripples through the NYC economy, lack of availability of jumbo mortgages, appraisal headwinds, etc., etc., that I would have thought it would make sense to stick to picking that low hanging fruit rather than trying to support your market view and outlook with the (historically, and it seems currently as well) counterfactual assertion that foreclosures are a meaningful factor in the Manhattan residential real estate. To be clear, I refer here to aboutready's foreclosures with a little f (single family units), not to the foreclosures with a capital F in the Crain's article. The capital F situations are multi-family commmercial real estate investments gone bad, not individual owners getting foreclosed out of their apartments by their mortgage lenders.

The reason that I ask is that a number like four, the total Manhattan foreclosure actions in July according to the Times article, indicates a phenomenon that just doesn't matter in a market of whatever hundred thousand units. But, you say, everyone on Wall Street lost their jobs, along with all the lawyers and everyone in so many other industries that depend on Wall Street. Surely foreclosures will now skyrocket. Well, we're two years into the so-called credit crunch and coming up on a full year from the greatest financial market and economic dislocation in [pick your number] generations, and Manhattan is still at four. But let's say that there are long lags and foreclosures double. Now we're at 8. Forget double, try 5x. OK, 20. 10x? 40. These are still small numbers, not the cavalry coming over the horizon to rescue the bear case (which, incidentally, doesn't need rescuing in the first place for all the reasons noted above). Foreclosures are an area where Manhattan really is different, for many reasons. My advice: ignore this topic and The_President's baiting. The right response to the title of this thread is, "Whatever. It has nothing to do with Manhattan real estate prices anyway."

I'm glad that I didn't try to go into reasons that NY is different when it comes to foreclosures, because while I was typing my diatribe stevejhx was laying it out much more throoughly that I ever could.

So, as I was saying, "Whatever. It has nothing to do with Manhattan real estate prices anyway."

Yeah but you know, no matter how small the number, I read the NY Post almost every day (not for necessarily news ;) ) for years and in the public notices section you NEVER saw notices for foreclosure on condos or coops until this Feb.
The fact that I even see one let alone one a week is big news.

so in the hardest hit regions of the country, 30-50% of sales have been foreclosures. but somehow here in Manhattan, where the bears are now saying 'foreclosures don't matter', we're going to have the same 50% peak to trough decline?

you just keep digging that hole

Well what do you think is going to happen as the commercial market spins out of control?

If someone gets a bargain on a commercial space and it so much cheaper than residential it's going to convert if convertible. Residential is tied to commercial like a 1 pound dumbell on a 400 pound gorilla.

what will happen in NYC is the short sale, both by individuals and by developers (with a fair number of foreclosures for developers). and it will affect property values significantly, but it will take a good deal of time to work through the system.

"but somehow here in Manhattan, where the bears are now saying 'foreclosures don't matter', we're going to have the same 50% peak to trough decline?"

Who said that foreclosures don't matter? What I said is that the statistics are not comparable for many reasons. If you can't afford where you live you're forced to sell. If you can't sell at a high price you must sell at a low price. If you're unwilling to lower your price then you won't sell and, inventories will rise. While the foreclosure process can affect the velocity of sales and price changes, it is immaterial in the long-run to whether someone who doesn't pay his mortgage has to sell the property.

He does. The property gets sold whether the bank sells it or the owner does. The bank often has more flexibility to lower the price because it doesn't need to worry about the homeowner's equity, but it doesn't affect the fact that the property must be sold.

"so in the hardest hit regions of the country, 30-50% of sales have been foreclosures. but somehow here in Manhattan, where the bears are now saying 'foreclosures don't matter', we're going to have the same 50% peak to trough decline?

you just keep digging that hole"

Uh, so the rest of the country is a convenient comparison again?

Here's the part you missed... rest of the country didn't have as big a bubble as here.

"If someone gets a bargain on a commercial space and it so much cheaper than residential it's going to convert if convertible. Residential is tied to commercial like a 1 pound dumbell on a 400 pound gorilla"

And, oh yeah, that whole pesky jobs/economy thing.

"Uh, so the rest of the country is a convenient comparison again?" Nice one

it is funny...

how the stock market doesn't matter, then it does..
the national situation matter, then it does...
wall street matters, then it doesn't, then it does...

Is the original poster serious? LOL does he not understand basic economics? Wow I must say joining this board has been the best FREE entertainment I've enjoyed in quite sometime.

sidelinesitter said that foreclosures don't matter -
'So, as I was saying, "Whatever. It has nothing to do with Manhattan real estate prices anyway."'

nyc10022 - you just say dumber things every day - you think that Manhattan had a bigger bubble than the hardest hit areas of the country - parts of CA, Phoenix, LV, Naples FL, etc.?

How many of you bears agree with that statement?

and because of foreclosures the cheaper areas of some of those bubble markets are beginning to bottom. we, due to our market structure and issues, will follow them.

"Here's the part you missed... rest of the country didn't have as big a bubble as here."

Your right. They had an even bigger bubble, mainly in FL, Ca, NV, and AZ.

"Question for (my fellow) bears: What's the point of blathering on in this thread and others about waves of foreclosures coming over the horizon?"

Maybe because most of you bears were expecting the crash to continue into the summer/fall timeframe...and we all know how that turned out. Spring continues to mark the low.

of what?

the stock market.

haven't we established that this isn't the economy?

if everything, is great, why does the government have to spend $3 billion to get people to buy cars?

did you read where the money for the cash for clunkers is coming from? they are diverting it from stimulus money that was to be used to develop alternative energy resources. fab. they can get a quick increase in the GDP numbers and make everything look better temporarily, in their great reflation experiment.

229 east 14th st 4w
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?id=120159

15 West 53rd Street, Unit 18F
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?id=117237

1600 Broadway, Unit 11B
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?id=119291

U my unicorn now beeeeeeyyyaaaatccccchhhhhhhh!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/50_09-2nd-street-long_island_city

09/04/2009 #1009 $920,000 -17.9% $1,120,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,473 ft�
08/26/2009 #223 $550,000 -10.6% $615,000 Sold 1 bed 1.5 baths 888 ft�
08/21/2009 #905 $910,000 -20.9% $1,150,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,441 ft�

THINGS ARE LOOKING UP....... IF YOU'RE A BUYER.

Ofcourse my opinion is that they to are underwater already. Oh well what do I know? Not much is probably about right.

dco!

welcome back!

Thanks NYC. I have been reading and posting very rarely over the last year. I see most things haven't changed. I guess people just want to believe. I wish them all the luck in the world. I remain extremely bearish and see the pain just beginning in the NYC area. Just an opinion. We are in the beginning stages of a massive deflationary spiral. Rates will remain low for sometime. Potential buyers have no need to worry about rates increasing anytime soon. And if I'm wrong and the opposite happens the housing market will collapse virtually over night if rates hit 7% for a 30 yr. Never mind 8,9,10%....Sellers will have to lower by 20-30% almost over night. You see the dilemma. Either way the market is screwed for sellers. My advise for buyers is wait. There is no rush AT ALL. Take your time. I rather pay a high interest rate and lower price then the inverse. At least you will get the opportunity later to refi. As well as seeing your re-sale benefit from lower rates later. But then again what do I know I'm not even in the business.I can't possibly know anything.

"229 east 14th st 4w
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?id=120159

15 West 53rd Street, Unit 18F
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?id=117237

1600 Broadway, Unit 11B
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?id=119291"

An odd set of auctions (but note I don't think any of them are foreclosure auctions). Firstly, the 229 East 14th they are selling a "mortgage" (not possible since this is a Coop unit?) but also it apparently doesn't have much to do with this property - my guess a business loan where the unit was put up as additional collateral (and I think it's an HDFC limitted income Coop). The second in museum tower is probably a cram down by the Arizona Bankruptcy Court, because I don't see the number coming in over what appears to be $1,200,000.

As for the third auction, the first thing I'll note to a certain moron on SE:
"Buyer's Premium: A six percent (6%) Buyer's Premium will be added to the successful bidder's high bid to determine the contract price to be paid by the purchaser." ...... So GFY.
The second thing is this may just be a sales technique as there's no Bankruptcy or foreclosure noticed, just "Immediate Sale Ordered via Public Auction", which in the past has been used to pretend a distress sale, but in fact the "Order" simply came from the Seller trying to see if the promise of taking advantage of a seller can get some overly greedy buyer to overpay.

who is this mysterious DCO, she/he hot....

30yrs... i love it when "auctions" are used as a marketing ploy, don't you? A guy recently asked me about a pre-foreclosure sale.. .wanted to know if he should bid..... my answer "if a pre-foreclosure is good buy then a foreclosure sale is a great buy."

unless there is "no reserve" it's more a marketing ploy... but the lemmings are a growing, and starting to have offsprings...

"30yrs... i love it when "auctions" are used as a marketing ploy, don't you? A guy recently asked me about a pre-foreclosure sale.. .wanted to know if he should bid..... my answer "if a pre-foreclosure is good buy then a foreclosure sale is a great buy."

Until very recently I would have agreed. but now with the prevalence of short sales and the amount of haircut which I've seen taken in some cases, it might now be possible to get as good or better deal working on a short sale than waiting for units to hit the court house steps, because almost none are. OTOH, I agree with you that people who are shouting "PRE-FORECLOSURE SALE" probably AREN'T the one's to get the best deal from, it's the one's who aren't, but are going to go to the bank and make the case that the low sale price actually "is market".

There's only one smart character on all of streeteasy. And the joke is on all of you. He's not even a man. He's a doggie. And as proof of his smarts, well, he's told you how he married up - a human doctor! And all of the toys he's acquired - a yacht, Rolex, Porsche, ... So when he calls you an idiot for being an owner, or a buyer, or a seller, or a broker, or even another poster on streeteasy, take it seriously and remember the source.

Foreclosures won't be the issue in Manhatta they are in California.

1) NY allows for deficiency judgments
2) Average income/assets of buyer in Manhattan is higher

And when properties go to auction there can be a reason. Not a mark on the building, but sometimes it just means low floor and poor lighting.

That said, it's not unreasonable to think prices have some room to go on the downside, gut feel is apx 10% from here....maybe

its gonna be fun pulling up these old posts as the market continues down.

I am considering a bank foreclosure. Sold in 2005 at 1.3m, on sale by the bank through a broker now at 600k. I guess that foreclosures are happening, indeed.

"NY allows for deficiency judgments"

This will not be a factor since no bank ever goes after them, and they aren't going to start doing it now under the current administration.

"I am considering a bank foreclosure. Sold in 2005 at 1.3m, on sale by the bank through a broker now at 600k. I guess that foreclosures are happening, indeed."

And where is this foreclosure mimi? Sounds fishy. Your numbers sound fishy because if this so called foreclosure actually existed, it would have been bought by an investor well before anyone has the opportunity to step foot in the place.

You people are such dimwits. Seriously. Those properties listed on Maltz Auctions are NOT foreclosures. For the 55th time, just because a property is being auctioned does not mean it is distressed. The only time an auction is truly a foreclosure auction is when it is held on the courthouse steps. Private comapnies like Bid on the City and Maltz are just realtors in disguise as auctioneers.

President, I was not going to post the info, since it is a place I could consider. But, since I decided to spend these coming months waiting for a reasonable deal, I´ll let it go. 114 west 124th. Is a nice-sized brownstone in a not quite charming st, that overlooks the lot where Macy's was going to be built, and a south facing garden. Look up in propertyshark. I found the listing, which I believe is not yet in SE, looking at other property listed here by the same broker. I forgot what bank owns it.

By the way, it's a shell.

"You people are such dimwits. Seriously. Those properties listed on Maltz Auctions are NOT foreclosures. "

Uh.... you people? Someone noted that 4 ours before you did.

Mimi:

JP Morgan Chase. Buyer got 95% financing on the purchase in 2005 ($1,235,000) which is probably 40% more than it was worth at the time.

I think they JP sold it to another bank, There is a transaction after that for 1.1, in which one bank lost 200k, and now the new bank needs to get rid of it. There's not that many buyers, evidently.
The market that I follow just don't sell. One broker has the vast majority of the listings, and he has 2 of the houses he owns for sale by other broker. His interest in pricing high is evident. He sold only one house in the year, and his listings keep growing.

NY allows for deficiency judgments"

This will not be a factor since no bank ever goes after them, and they aren't going to start doing it now under the current administration.

30 year. I know of a
a few cases. Depends on the size of the loan and who owns it.

and stevejhx btw, New york is a lien theory not title theory..you probably know that and mixed up the two by mistake. Question though - how is it that Florida also being a lien theory state has had steep number of foreclosures where foreclosures actually are making a huge impact..

Just happened in my building. Auction took place and apt sold for 50% of recent comps. It does happen in Manhattan.

jjun, this is just a guess, but it takes a LONG time to build generally in NYC. not particularly development friendly in most aspects. much of the florida new construction market took off running in 2004.

I never said they were foreclosures. If Maltz is involved then they all most likely are bankruptcy related.
One of the properties I saw the name Agape which was that Madoff mini me in long island.
Maltz doesn't waste time with non sales. These will go to the highest bidder with free and clear title.
And we have already established on this board why manhattan foreclosures are/will be a no go.
But sales like these will function much like a foreclosure.

I'd keep an eye on chapter 7 filings over the next year.

well, you don't have to worry about me buying your dream foreclosure on 114th St. I would never touch that neighborhood. And I doubt too many people on SE would either.

Not too many, but some. There are plenty of Harlem threads in SE. When I bought in Tribeca, not many people were looking there neither...

Hey cracker, we got a black president. It open season on whities above 96th street again. Hood times good times good times. ; )

"30 year. I know of a
a few cases. Depends on the size of the loan and who owns it."

I'd be curious to hear, because all the cases I know of was where there was fraud in the original loan.

w67thstreet
about 8 hours ago
Hey cracker, we got a black president. It open season on whities above 96th street again. Hood times good times good times. ; )

When do you go about 96th street doggie? When its the 3rd day of the month and the rent hasn't come in?