From the AP: Employers throttled back on layoffs in July, cutting just 247,000 jobs, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.4 percent, its first decline in 15 months. It was a better-than-expected showing that offered a strong signal that the recession is finally ending. The new snapshot, released by the Labor Department on Friday, also offered other encouraging news: workers'... [more]
From the AP:
Employers throttled back on layoffs in July, cutting just 247,000 jobs, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.4 percent, its first decline in 15 months.
It was a better-than-expected showing that offered a strong signal that the recession is finally ending.
The new snapshot, released by the Labor Department on Friday, also offered other encouraging news: workers' hours nudged up after sinking to a record low in June, and paychecks grew after having fallen or flat lined in some cases.
To be sure, the report still indicates that the jobs market is on shaky ground. But the new figures were better than many analysts were expecting and offered welcomed improvements to a part of the economy that has been clobbered by the recession.
Analysts were forecasting job losses to slow to around 320,000 and the unemployment rate to tick up to 9.6 percent.
The dip in the unemployment rate -- from June's 9.5 percent -- was the first since April 2008. One of the reasons the rate went down, however, was because hundreds of thousands of people left the labor force. Fewer people, though, did report being unemployed.
All told, there were 14.5 million out of work in July.
If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included the unemployment rate would have been 16.3 percent in July. That's down from 16.5 percent in June, which was the the highest on records dating to 1994.
Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 6.7 million jobs.
Also heartening: job losses in May and June turned out to be less than previously reported. Employers sliced 303,000 positions in May, versus 322,000 previously logged. And, they cut 443,000 in June, compared with an earlier estimate of 467,000.
The job cuts made in July were the fewest since August 2008.
The slowdown in layoffs in part reflected fewer jobs cuts in manufacturing, construction, professional and business services and financial activities -- areas that have been hard hit by the collapse of the housing market and the financial crisis. Retailers, however, cut more jobs in July.
Those losses were blunted by job gains in government, education and health services, and in leisure and hospitality.
Still, the worst of the job cuts have passed.
The deepest job cuts of the recession came in January, when 741,000 job disappeared, the most in any month since 1949.
Slower job losses are occuring because companies aren't cutting investment and spending as drastically as they had been during the depths of the recession which came in the final quarter of last year and carried over into the first quarter of this year.
With companies feeling a bit better about the economy's prospects and their own, they boosted workers' hours in July. The average work week rose to 33.1 hours, after having fallen to 33 hours in June, the lowest on records dating to 1964.
And, employers bumped up wages. Average hourly earnings rose to $18.56 in July, up from $18.53 in June. Hourly earnings were stagnant in June. Average weekly earnings, which fell in June, rose to $614.34.
Other recent barometers have shown some improvements in manufacturing, housing and construction activity.
The government reported last week that the economy shrank at a pace of just 1 percent from April-to-June, the strongest signal yet that the recession may be ending.
Many analysts predict the economy could start growing again in the current July-to-September quarter. And, the Fed recently observed that the economy is finally showing signs of stabilizing in some regions of the country -- especially in parts of the Northeast and Midwest -- bolstering hopes of a broader-based recovery this year.
This is a very good sign for the economy! Job growth will be slow, but we may start getting some soon.
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Response by bob420
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 581
Member since: Apr 2009
There has to be a way to spin this as bad news.
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Response by steveF
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008
and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.4 percent, its first decline in 15 months.
that is psychologically very important...
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
But wait SteveF...unemployment is suppose to lead...not the stock market...Right?
Depression my ass.
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
Where are the bears and the groom & doomers?
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Response by steveF
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008
ericho: "Depression?!", the media loved it. Anyhow, remember for the future people of how you can make money off of the -media manipulation of the masses-.
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
Well, i've been banging on this green-shoot 4-5 months ago. As confidence built, spending will follow and a vicious cycle of growth should start.
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Response by urbandigs
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
anyway you slice it, a better employment report! nice to see. One report does not a trend make, but its nice to see. Lets just not start throwing parties yet, as less worse does not equal sustainable boom! This is still the deepest and longest recession since WW2. A healthy US economy should add 150,000 jobs a month. So we have 19 consecutive months of job losses, and the trend seems to be improving, and hopefully it continues.
I still have my concerns for a double dip, but as I said earlier, think this fiscal/monetary stimulus induced spurt could last 3-4 more quarters. Just beware the side effects that comes with this kind of stimulus taken to avoid a much worse situation. Sometimes I think people forget how scary it was this time last year, what happened to wall st, what was done to save the banking system, and that rates are at zero and fed is printing trillions to compliment 19 credit facilities specifically tailored to get us out a severe bout of debt deflation that sees credit markets frozen.
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
"I still have my concerns for a double dip"
Might still get it but if we do, i expect the timing to be substantially further out.
There's no denying that this is a government spending binge recovery. We'll see when the pull the punch bowl.....the key is.....when will they pull it.
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Response by urbandigs
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
yes, I keep thinking back to howard ludnicks comments about it being a 2011 or 2012 problem.
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Response by JuiceMan
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007
"There has to be a way to spin this as bad news"
Quote of the day!
"anyway you slice it, a better employment report! nice to see. One report does not a trend make, but its nice to see."
More of my friends are getting jobs, more families are secure, forget about real estate for a second, we should all be happy that jobs are coming back.
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
Spreads between junk and high grade goodies continue to close from historic highs.
My favorite high yield (junk bond) ETF continues to lead.
Wait I thought unemployment was a lagging indicator....at least it was when it was going up...
10 year yields approaching 4% just in time for a big auction next week....anyone check the Fre/Fnm MBS yields lately....
Hope you locked in that 5.25% mortgage cause north of 6% will be the norm going forward...
Combine that with your expiration of the $8,000 tax credit and on our way to 50% underwater mortgages and there is your next leg down in real estate
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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
i hope it continues. the increase in mass layoff notices this month was sobering.
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Response by anonymous
almost 17 years ago
"More of my friends are getting jobs, more families are secure, forget about real estate for a second, we should all be happy that jobs are coming back."
Totally agree with that as I have definitely sensed some optimism around the grill this summer....just wish i didnt have to wake up with a hangover tomorrow when I read the tax bill that had to make this happen...
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
"i hope it continues. the increase in mass layoff notices this month was sobering."
From the household survey, the civilian unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent in June and was below the consensus projection for 9.7 percent. The decline was due to a sizeable drop in the labor force.
got that? the decline was due to a sizeable drop in the labor force. do we need another math problem? people quit looking for jobs, probably when their extended unemployment benefits ran out. you have to keep looking to keep getting paid unemployment benefits, but when you run out, i'm fairly certain that after a year of fruitless efforts you might take some time off.
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Response by anonymous
almost 17 years ago
"Jezzzz. Nice try. You really do need help."
Ummmmmm, this was reported by Challenger on Wednesday....seriously, what's your problem getting on people that are just simply stating facts...
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
Oh lord.
"The dip in the unemployment rate -- from June's 9.5 percent -- was the first since April 2008. One of the reasons the rate went down, however, was because hundreds of thousands of people left the labor force. Fewer people, though, did report being unemployed."
Read that again...ONE OF THE REASONS!!!
"Also heartening: job losses in May and June turned out to be less than previously reported. Employers sliced 303,000 positions in May, versus 322,000 previously logged. And, they cut 443,000 in June, compared with an earlier estimate of 467,000.
The job cuts made in July were the fewest since August 2008."
And what about the prior months revised numbers????
I do feel sorry for you. Your wish of people losing jobs and this country falling into the abyss isn't going to happen. You are such a loser.
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
"people that are just simply stating facts..."
Facts? Not the facts i'm having trouble with, it's her sobering approach to something positive. We got positive unemployment news in over 15 months and she throws in a sobering comment.
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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008
AR - I hear you, but come on. Unemployment ticked down, hours worked ticked-up, wages ticked-up...this is as good of a report as you could hope for given where we are. I understand your point about the underemployed, but tell me what would make you say this is a good jobs report, given the atate of the economy? Would you only be happy if we added 200k jobs? That was never going to happen at this point. So, it brings me back to my question. Realistically, what would you consider of positive jobs report at this point?
Digs - True on the 150k/month number. I think we bottomed in June, so we sould be 3-4 quarters away from that number, although we may hit it once and then get a could knock back down on the way to sustainability.
We're trending up. Things don't go from worst to good overnight.
Worst to bad to not as bad to turning up to.......
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Response by malthus
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1333
Member since: Feb 2009
ericho: If you had been around as an adult for more than just the last couple of years, you would realize that during every recession, there are people who drop off the radar because they have simply stopped looking for jobs. Your own quote shows these numbers to be in the hundreds of thousands, a significant number with respect to the total number of unemployed. This is not contraversial. It is simply a fact that you would prefer people ignore in your "Everything is great." mantra.
To take a tack on one of your stupid arguments: Why do you want to ignore these people who have been out of work so long? Why do you hate them so much? You must be a bad person.
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Response by Ubottom
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 740
Member since: Apr 2009
"I do feel sorry for you. Your wish of people losing jobs and this country falling into the abyss isn't going to happen. You are such a loser."
All hail the bull patriot!! imbecile
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Response by alanhart
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007
So what does everyone think these numbers will be when they restate them? And when they re-restate them?
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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
waverly, i only reported what was actually written. i never opined as to the positive or negative aspect or the report. if you read what i wrote, i said i hope it continues, although obviously i don't hope that people continue to simply fall off the employment radar. i haven't seen the U6 yet.
and this last month i have increasingly read of additional layoffs looming, both private and public sector. and furloughs.
to say that i wish for increasing unemployment is so misrepresentative i can't even fathom the rationale behind such a distortion, other than it is a simplistic and facile attempt to promote a self-indulgent corruption of the truth. loser? at least i didn't buy at a certain failing project in LIC.
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Response by printer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1219
Member since: Jan 2008
about - it is well documented that you wish for prices to come down so that you can buy the apartment you desire, and that you see rising unemployment (as measured by your pet obsession - U6) as the catalyst for that - so to say that you wish for unemployment to rise (as long as it isn't your husband) is hardly a corruption of the truth.
You are typical Democrat - hoping to inrease your share of the pie at the expense of someone else, rather than increasing the pie for everyone. It would be nice if your desire was that a fast growing economy would lead to increased income/savings for the aboutready family, and that would put you into that home of your dreams.
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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008
I didn't suggest that you wish for people to lose their jobs. Was that someone else?
More layoffs are definitely going to happen. The jobs recovery is not going to be a straight-shoot upwards. I think we may see a month under 100k lost and then a month with over 250k lost. We should expect a bit of a see-saw as the losses slow and then (hopefullY) turn into job growth. We lost jobs for what, 15 straight months and counting? It is going to take some more time to turn it around. I am still optimistic.
I just think it's okay to celebrate this jobs report. This has been a long, hard slog down so we should take a step back and celebrate the good news. God knows there is still plenty bad out there, but this jobs report was nice to see.
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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008
alanhart - hopefully they restate them down. If it was taxes or a bar tab, then it would only go up;).
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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008
Hey printer - apparently you don't know what a typical Democrat is. Democrats want to increase the pie for everyone. The other guys...not so much.
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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
waverly, it's not that i don't welcome certain aspects ot this job report, i just think it is important to realize what it truly implies. and i know that you didn't suggest that i wish for people to lose their jobs. that was indeed someone else.
printer, you have very limited reading comprehension. i don't care if i buy. really. if the numbers ever work out, i'll do it, but from a financial planning perspective, nothing emotional. and do you not have any reasoning capacity at all? my husband is a partner at a well-run large law firm. of course a "booming" economy would benefit us, if not necessarily the little people. i'm EXACTLY the opposite of what you write.
i have my gigantic folly upstate. it's more than enough residence for me. and i'm heading up there now to take care of basement flooding. last week it was the 4-year-old Kitchenaid refrigerator that wasn't working upon our arrival. thought there was a dead body in the house. i rather like the ease of renting in the city as a counterpoint to such efforts.
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
"to say that i wish for increasing unemployment is so misrepresentative i can't even fathom the rationale behind such a distortion, other than it is a simplistic and facile attempt to promote a self-indulgent corruption of the truth. loser?"
Oh com'on. You sold your place back in 2004 and miss a large chunk of the price appreciation from 2004 to 2007. If you didn't sell at the top, i doubt you're smart enough to buy at the bottom.
To say that layoffs are MASSIVE this month is an outcry from the truth. If this month's layoffs were massive, what about June? More Massive?
And May? Super Massive?
And April? Super duper massive?
And March? Gigantic super duper massive?
And Feb? Armageddon Massive?
And Jan? #$##$@#@!
Your attempt to turn something black that is obviously white shows your true character. Loser? Yes.
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Response by printer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1219
Member since: Jan 2008
nope, i understand perfectly well the re-distributive policies of the Democratic party.
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
"at least i didn't buy at a certain failing project in LIC."
Nice try, define failing?
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
AR,
When was the last time you cheered about anything positive over the past 2 months? Anything?
Has any of these green shoot reports or data made you smile once? If not, ask yourself why?
If you really are looking out and hoping for the best interest of the American people, then why haven't you?
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Response by Ubottom
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 740
Member since: Apr 2009
all hail jerkoffco the amphibious patriot bull
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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
You need to change your handle. It's technically incorrect.
How bout VBottom.
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Response by falcogold1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008
Horray!!!
It's over!!!
We won!!!
Meet me at the Mall for Orange Juliuses and some gratuitus shopping!!!
That recession was not so bad, what was all that complaining about?
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Response by printer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1219
Member since: Jan 2008
no about, you are EXACTLY what I write about. the very embodiment of the term 'limosine liberal' - even down to your eggregiously condescending use of the term 'little people'.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
How about MeTop?
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Response by evnyc
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1844
Member since: Aug 2008
Orange Julius...they're really still around? Flashback to middle school...
AR, I hope the basement cleans up okay.
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Response by malthus
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1333
Member since: Feb 2009
I think its fair to ask that Republicans casting aspersions on assumed Democrats learn how to spell "limousine".
AR: Perhaps you should have used the term, "little-brained people".
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Response by marco_m
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2481
Member since: Dec 2008
definitely upbeat news . Its going to be very interesting to see how things play out. Im staying firm on my opinion that Manhattan RE will continue to decline because of the carnage in bank employment and the oversupply of housing.
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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008
"re-distributive policies of the Democratic party"
Like the tax burdens of the Reagan administration? Or are you only okay with this "redistribution" for military spending, but not for infrastructure, healthcare and other social programs? This myth of "redistribution" from the right is such a joke. Try looking up some pesky facts first and you will see that what Rush, Hannity, Kudlow and friends feed you for your talking points is thin on reality and long on twisted misinformation.
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Response by printer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1219
Member since: Jan 2008
with a name like malthus, i'm not surprised that you think all people lower than you on the economic ladder are considered 'little-brained'. i'm sure you just can't wait to exterminate them all.
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
“The basic message is that the rate of job cuts is diminishing, and that’s good news,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. “Still, you’re seeing job cuts everywhere except education, health care, government. I don’t think we’re at bottom yet in employment.”
So, if this is good news, how would we characterize jobs actually going up?
It's not even that the decline has stopped, but the rate of decline is what we are cheering about?
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Response by printer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1219
Member since: Jan 2008
well waverly, since you ask, I certainly consider defense and most infrastructure spending as collective benefits, so yes it is fair to ask those with the most means to pay a disproportionate share of the costs.
what i object to are the moves which create benefits that are financed exclusively by a small portion of the population. when people get something in return for nothing, they don't care about it. one of the great things about social security, unemployment and medicare are that every worker pays into it - seeing that money come out of your paycheck is an excellent incentive to make sure that it is properly run.
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Response by The_President
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2412
Member since: Jun 2009
"There has to be a way to spin this as bad news."
Absolutely. I'm still waiting for the doomer spin. I guess the bears will just lie down and aceept the news without taking t apart liek they always try to unsuccessfully do?
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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008
On that point printer I do agree with you. I think the tax plan for HC is going to end up being the Pelosi Plan that was $1 million for families or $600 or $700k for individuals. The $275k number is just not going to get it done. Also, being a good Democrat who favors helping others out, I am more in favor of adding some additional tax brackets for the uber-wealthy instead of banging on families in the NE or WC who are making $3-500k.
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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008
cc - I ask you the same question:
Realistically, what would you consider of positive jobs report at this point?
That said, there's been a couple of new postings for positions in my field just this week. It's been like the Sahara out there for months, but July and August I'm starting to see a little bit of an uptick. Then again, a good friend just got laid off last week, so things from my perspective are still so-so.
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
i think the characterization should be -- hey, the rate of job loss has dropped for the first month since roughly a year ago. we're not out of the woods yet by any means; lets keep up whatever we're doing (which, not be sarcastic--I have no idea what this is) and see where we stand next month and a few months after that as well. we will be examining the costs and implications of extending unemployment benefits because we recognize that an even larger group of people is now hurting.
our cheerleading reminds me of the kids soccer game where the losing team gets a trophy as well just so the kids don't feel bad.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
> Where are the bears and the groom & doomers?
Right here... and still correct!
I told you the economy would get better, I told you stocks would get better (and that I was near 100% invested), and I told you Manhattan RE would tank (and its still tanking).
What a glorious day!
Why do you ask, guys who called it wrong?
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"about - it is well documented that you wish for prices to come down so that you can buy the apartment you desire, and that you see rising unemployment (as measured by your pet obsession - U6) as the catalyst for that"
Wait, now bulls are changing OUR rationale???? I love it!
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"our cheerleading reminds me of the kids soccer game where the losing team gets a trophy as well just so the kids don't feel bad."
lol
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
from floyd norris:
"There are clear signs that world economy is turning up, or at least not sinking further, but today’s jobs report is not a bright spot. The unemployment rate went down, from 9.5 percent to 9.4 percent, but that is statistically unimportant given the sampling error in the household survey. In any case, it fell not because more people said they had jobs — employment was down in that survey — but because fewer people were still looking for work."
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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Hahahah. You guys are in fine form today. Lots of funny stuff here. It's like coming back to a bar where the regulars have known each other since grammar school. A round on me!
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Response by glamma
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 830
Member since: Jun 2009
i'll have an orange julius, thanks. i got next
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Response by mh23
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Dec 2007
I think there are two truly important data points that came out today, and neither one is the manufactured unemployment number (although that number is tangentially involved to point 1).
1) The dollar rallied today as equities went up. As I wrote about (quoting Mish's thesis) technical indicators have pointed toward a potentially strong rally in the dollar. This thesis was confirmed by Goldman's call earlier in the week advising their clients to get out of Euros and into dollars. Now with unemployment abating, at least as a narrative if not a reality, and a fear of potential rate increases in the next six months or so, which I highly doubt, the dollar rally has a fundamental narrative to go along with the technical indicators. If today's trend follows through, expect some declines in commodities, sideways to down trading, and continued strength in the dollar.
2) Blatic Dry index is appreciably down as China puts on the breaks. If this trend continues watch out for additional pressures on Copper, Iron Ore etc. I don't know if this slow down portends a makor correction in China's stock market, but I would not be buying any FXI
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
ok...make it a double....
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"There are clear signs that world economy is turning up, or at least not sinking further"
It is funny how we live in a day and age where falling less quickly means things are "improving".
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
improving? happy days are here again. i am beginning to wonder is this coming fall is going to be a re-do of last fall together with last march.
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Response by NYCROBOT
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 198
Member since: Apr 2009
I'm sorry, but I don't agree that the slightly lower unemployment number means anything is turning around. I completely believe this HAS to be due to the fuzzy math they use to calculate the rate. Can someone please explain to me how the unemployment rate can get better when several hundred thousand people (net) lost their jobs last month? Unemployment rates only truly drop in a good way when net jobs are added to the economy. Many times, many people have touted the general principle that we need to see at least 2.5% GDP growth before you will see new jobs being added to the economy. Did anyone see 2.5% GDP growth?
Please, someone explain to me how more job losses equals a drop in unemployment rate!!!
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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
NYCROBOT, read the NPR article posted by EVNYC. Unemployment is the percentage of people in the labor force who do not have jobs and are looking for jobs. If someone is discouraged, not actively looking for a job, the exit the labor force. Simple example, labor force is 100 people, 9 are unemployed, 9% unemployment. Two people quit looking for work, labor force is now 98 people, 7 are unemployed. unemployment is now about 7.2%. Crude example, but shows the mechanics. This month the labor force shrunk by about 442,000, I believe was the figure.
EVNYC, thanks for the basement wishes. It could have been much worse. We have water sensors in the basement, and ADT calls us when they go off. This time was so-so.
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Response by Lecker
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 219
Member since: Feb 2009
over 200,000 more new unemployed and over 400,000 employees left the workforce, and this is good news ?
Bulls - I agree that less unemployed than expected is good news, but come on, be honest - the absolute numbers which make up the statistic are hardly positive. Has there ever been this many unemployed leaving the workforce in one month ever before? How can one check this? This is "retired" consumption people...
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Response by jsmith9005
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 360
Member since: Apr 2007
All the people who think this not good news are missing the point - yes "less bad" is good, because nothing turns around on a dime. It needs to be gradual improvement, and it looks like that's happening - it needs to start somewhere. Not sure why anyone would be unhappy about this news - the only way for more people to get employed again is for the economy to turn around - who is against that??
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Response by malthus
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1333
Member since: Feb 2009
What does happiness have to do with anything? People are posting facts and drawing conclusions. Other people are posting additional facts that lead to different conclusions. If people want a cheerleading session they should just tune in to Larry Kudlow.
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Response by mh23
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Dec 2007
I think that a fair minded appraisal of the unemployment numbers would lead one to conclude that we are continuing to lose jobs. Whether or not we are losing them at a slower pace is debatable due to the fact that the way unemployment is calculated is a highly manipulated statistic. That being said, my concern is that once the economy stops shedding jobs, let's just say in 2010, what will be the catalyst to resume hiring again. Right now, government stimulus is the only agent for growth in the economy, which as we know, is problematic due to the fact that we, unlike China, need to borrow the money that we use for stimulus. If, when the stimulus programs end, there is muted demand for labor, we could see unemployment hover above 7% for many many years.
That being said, it is almost certain that GDP for Q3 and Q4 of this year will be positive, and things will appear much better than they did during the same time frame in 2008.
From a stock market perspective, how much of that is already priced in? My sense is that some time between now and October there will be an appreciable correction. This will be necessary to lure more money into the market in an effort to send it higher, which is clearly what the powers that be want to happen. My own sense is that the rally for now has peaked and that the pullback will occur in the next week or two. The dollar will continue to strengthen and we should see an appreciable pull back in oil and copper, and precious metals. However, considering that the market rose while the dollar strengthened on Friday, we may see the market rise for a bit longer, but it seems to me that oil and copper are heading down.
However, by October or November, the market will start to rise pushing us up towards, and perhaps beyond, 1100 on the S and P.
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
how can the stock market do what you are suggesting without real earnings? how can there be real earnings if people don't have the money (and can't get credit--thank goodness) to buy things?
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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
the stock market can remain irrational...
interestingly analysts have started increasing earnings estimates. of course they can lower them at any time before earnings announcements, but it could get interesting.
dividends are generally in the sewer. i saw a prediction for a broad but shallow contraction in earnings in just about everything EXCEPT financials, which are now expected to sail us across the ocean. how's that for a laughfest. anyone notice how the foreign banks keep writing off losses?
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
where oh where are the toxic assets? presumably, some amounts will be written off for years or did they just stick them in a drawer and say to hell with them?
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Response by mh23
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Dec 2007
CC and AR, I agree with you with respect to the economy and earnings. However, like AR quotes, the stock market is irrational. The Fed and Obama want the market to go higher so that people feel less poor and hopefully will start dipping into their savings to spend. The media is Obama's pliant tool, which I am sure you have noticed. Therefor, what needs to happen is that, for now, the market will correct down, thus helping to increase supply for treasuries as the Fed begins to end quantitative easing. Also, the "correction" will hopefully lure the infamous "sideline money" back into the ponzi scheme, and in so doing drive up the market. Obviously Bernanke is in a pinch because, as the markets rise, so do long-term yields and mortgages, which he does not want. On the other hand, the only vehicle at the Fed's disposal to make people feel richer is the stock market, so he needs to do everything he can, including (according to zero hedge) loan banks money that they are putting to work in the stock market to drive up prices.
I have no idea how long they can keep this dance going, but my objective is to invest succesfully, not maitain slavish adherence to any ideological theory, or what I "think" should happen. The market is not rational, and I believe we are still in a secular bear market, and so one needs to trade around the hedge here and look for opportunities. Last week I mentioned the strengthening dollar, which is a trend that may be in play, for sure it showed some real strength into the end of last week.
When I look at certian companies that I used to own but have sold such as CAT and NWL, I look at a 40% plus move in the last 30 days or so. Can they run up another 40% in August...possible, but the odds are against it. If I had to make a guess, I would say that CAT ends the year around 50 and NWL around 15, but I am not interesting in entering those positions again right now.
There has to be a way to spin this as bad news.
and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.4 percent, its first decline in 15 months.
that is psychologically very important...
But wait SteveF...unemployment is suppose to lead...not the stock market...Right?
Depression my ass.
Where are the bears and the groom & doomers?
ericho: "Depression?!", the media loved it. Anyhow, remember for the future people of how you can make money off of the -media manipulation of the masses-.
Well, i've been banging on this green-shoot 4-5 months ago. As confidence built, spending will follow and a vicious cycle of growth should start.
anyway you slice it, a better employment report! nice to see. One report does not a trend make, but its nice to see. Lets just not start throwing parties yet, as less worse does not equal sustainable boom! This is still the deepest and longest recession since WW2. A healthy US economy should add 150,000 jobs a month. So we have 19 consecutive months of job losses, and the trend seems to be improving, and hopefully it continues.
I still have my concerns for a double dip, but as I said earlier, think this fiscal/monetary stimulus induced spurt could last 3-4 more quarters. Just beware the side effects that comes with this kind of stimulus taken to avoid a much worse situation. Sometimes I think people forget how scary it was this time last year, what happened to wall st, what was done to save the banking system, and that rates are at zero and fed is printing trillions to compliment 19 credit facilities specifically tailored to get us out a severe bout of debt deflation that sees credit markets frozen.
"I still have my concerns for a double dip"
Might still get it but if we do, i expect the timing to be substantially further out.
There's no denying that this is a government spending binge recovery. We'll see when the pull the punch bowl.....the key is.....when will they pull it.
yes, I keep thinking back to howard ludnicks comments about it being a 2011 or 2012 problem.
"There has to be a way to spin this as bad news"
Quote of the day!
"anyway you slice it, a better employment report! nice to see. One report does not a trend make, but its nice to see."
More of my friends are getting jobs, more families are secure, forget about real estate for a second, we should all be happy that jobs are coming back.
Spreads between junk and high grade goodies continue to close from historic highs.
My favorite high yield (junk bond) ETF continues to lead.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SHIAX#symbol=SHIAX;range=1y
Very healthy sign.
Wait I thought unemployment was a lagging indicator....at least it was when it was going up...
10 year yields approaching 4% just in time for a big auction next week....anyone check the Fre/Fnm MBS yields lately....
Hope you locked in that 5.25% mortgage cause north of 6% will be the norm going forward...
Combine that with your expiration of the $8,000 tax credit and on our way to 50% underwater mortgages and there is your next leg down in real estate
i hope it continues. the increase in mass layoff notices this month was sobering.
"More of my friends are getting jobs, more families are secure, forget about real estate for a second, we should all be happy that jobs are coming back."
Totally agree with that as I have definitely sensed some optimism around the grill this summer....just wish i didnt have to wake up with a hangover tomorrow when I read the tax bill that had to make this happen...
"i hope it continues. the increase in mass layoff notices this month was sobering."
Jezzzz. Nice try. You really do need help.
Chart of Non-farm payroll.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-AB440_payrol_MD_20090807085327.jpg
As as the decline took time, the recovery will too.
From the econoday calendar on Bloomberg:
From the household survey, the civilian unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent in June and was below the consensus projection for 9.7 percent. The decline was due to a sizeable drop in the labor force.
got that? the decline was due to a sizeable drop in the labor force. do we need another math problem? people quit looking for jobs, probably when their extended unemployment benefits ran out. you have to keep looking to keep getting paid unemployment benefits, but when you run out, i'm fairly certain that after a year of fruitless efforts you might take some time off.
"Jezzzz. Nice try. You really do need help."
Ummmmmm, this was reported by Challenger on Wednesday....seriously, what's your problem getting on people that are just simply stating facts...
Oh lord.
"The dip in the unemployment rate -- from June's 9.5 percent -- was the first since April 2008. One of the reasons the rate went down, however, was because hundreds of thousands of people left the labor force. Fewer people, though, did report being unemployed."
Read that again...ONE OF THE REASONS!!!
"Also heartening: job losses in May and June turned out to be less than previously reported. Employers sliced 303,000 positions in May, versus 322,000 previously logged. And, they cut 443,000 in June, compared with an earlier estimate of 467,000.
The job cuts made in July were the fewest since August 2008."
And what about the prior months revised numbers????
I do feel sorry for you. Your wish of people losing jobs and this country falling into the abyss isn't going to happen. You are such a loser.
"people that are just simply stating facts..."
Facts? Not the facts i'm having trouble with, it's her sobering approach to something positive. We got positive unemployment news in over 15 months and she throws in a sobering comment.
AR - I hear you, but come on. Unemployment ticked down, hours worked ticked-up, wages ticked-up...this is as good of a report as you could hope for given where we are. I understand your point about the underemployed, but tell me what would make you say this is a good jobs report, given the atate of the economy? Would you only be happy if we added 200k jobs? That was never going to happen at this point. So, it brings me back to my question. Realistically, what would you consider of positive jobs report at this point?
Digs - True on the 150k/month number. I think we bottomed in June, so we sould be 3-4 quarters away from that number, although we may hit it once and then get a could knock back down on the way to sustainability.
Just look at this chart.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-AB440_payrol_MD_20090807085327.jpg
We're trending up. Things don't go from worst to good overnight.
Worst to bad to not as bad to turning up to.......
ericho: If you had been around as an adult for more than just the last couple of years, you would realize that during every recession, there are people who drop off the radar because they have simply stopped looking for jobs. Your own quote shows these numbers to be in the hundreds of thousands, a significant number with respect to the total number of unemployed. This is not contraversial. It is simply a fact that you would prefer people ignore in your "Everything is great." mantra.
To take a tack on one of your stupid arguments: Why do you want to ignore these people who have been out of work so long? Why do you hate them so much? You must be a bad person.
"I do feel sorry for you. Your wish of people losing jobs and this country falling into the abyss isn't going to happen. You are such a loser."
All hail the bull patriot!! imbecile
So what does everyone think these numbers will be when they restate them? And when they re-restate them?
waverly, i only reported what was actually written. i never opined as to the positive or negative aspect or the report. if you read what i wrote, i said i hope it continues, although obviously i don't hope that people continue to simply fall off the employment radar. i haven't seen the U6 yet.
and this last month i have increasingly read of additional layoffs looming, both private and public sector. and furloughs.
to say that i wish for increasing unemployment is so misrepresentative i can't even fathom the rationale behind such a distortion, other than it is a simplistic and facile attempt to promote a self-indulgent corruption of the truth. loser? at least i didn't buy at a certain failing project in LIC.
about - it is well documented that you wish for prices to come down so that you can buy the apartment you desire, and that you see rising unemployment (as measured by your pet obsession - U6) as the catalyst for that - so to say that you wish for unemployment to rise (as long as it isn't your husband) is hardly a corruption of the truth.
You are typical Democrat - hoping to inrease your share of the pie at the expense of someone else, rather than increasing the pie for everyone. It would be nice if your desire was that a fast growing economy would lead to increased income/savings for the aboutready family, and that would put you into that home of your dreams.
I didn't suggest that you wish for people to lose their jobs. Was that someone else?
More layoffs are definitely going to happen. The jobs recovery is not going to be a straight-shoot upwards. I think we may see a month under 100k lost and then a month with over 250k lost. We should expect a bit of a see-saw as the losses slow and then (hopefullY) turn into job growth. We lost jobs for what, 15 straight months and counting? It is going to take some more time to turn it around. I am still optimistic.
I just think it's okay to celebrate this jobs report. This has been a long, hard slog down so we should take a step back and celebrate the good news. God knows there is still plenty bad out there, but this jobs report was nice to see.
alanhart - hopefully they restate them down. If it was taxes or a bar tab, then it would only go up;).
Hey printer - apparently you don't know what a typical Democrat is. Democrats want to increase the pie for everyone. The other guys...not so much.
waverly, it's not that i don't welcome certain aspects ot this job report, i just think it is important to realize what it truly implies. and i know that you didn't suggest that i wish for people to lose their jobs. that was indeed someone else.
printer, you have very limited reading comprehension. i don't care if i buy. really. if the numbers ever work out, i'll do it, but from a financial planning perspective, nothing emotional. and do you not have any reasoning capacity at all? my husband is a partner at a well-run large law firm. of course a "booming" economy would benefit us, if not necessarily the little people. i'm EXACTLY the opposite of what you write.
i have my gigantic folly upstate. it's more than enough residence for me. and i'm heading up there now to take care of basement flooding. last week it was the 4-year-old Kitchenaid refrigerator that wasn't working upon our arrival. thought there was a dead body in the house. i rather like the ease of renting in the city as a counterpoint to such efforts.
"to say that i wish for increasing unemployment is so misrepresentative i can't even fathom the rationale behind such a distortion, other than it is a simplistic and facile attempt to promote a self-indulgent corruption of the truth. loser?"
Oh com'on. You sold your place back in 2004 and miss a large chunk of the price appreciation from 2004 to 2007. If you didn't sell at the top, i doubt you're smart enough to buy at the bottom.
To say that layoffs are MASSIVE this month is an outcry from the truth. If this month's layoffs were massive, what about June? More Massive?
And May? Super Massive?
And April? Super duper massive?
And March? Gigantic super duper massive?
And Feb? Armageddon Massive?
And Jan? #$##$@#@!
Your attempt to turn something black that is obviously white shows your true character. Loser? Yes.
nope, i understand perfectly well the re-distributive policies of the Democratic party.
"at least i didn't buy at a certain failing project in LIC."
Nice try, define failing?
AR,
When was the last time you cheered about anything positive over the past 2 months? Anything?
Has any of these green shoot reports or data made you smile once? If not, ask yourself why?
If you really are looking out and hoping for the best interest of the American people, then why haven't you?
all hail jerkoffco the amphibious patriot bull
You need to change your handle. It's technically incorrect.
How bout VBottom.
Horray!!!
It's over!!!
We won!!!
Meet me at the Mall for Orange Juliuses and some gratuitus shopping!!!
That recession was not so bad, what was all that complaining about?
no about, you are EXACTLY what I write about. the very embodiment of the term 'limosine liberal' - even down to your eggregiously condescending use of the term 'little people'.
How about MeTop?
Orange Julius...they're really still around? Flashback to middle school...
AR, I hope the basement cleans up okay.
I think its fair to ask that Republicans casting aspersions on assumed Democrats learn how to spell "limousine".
AR: Perhaps you should have used the term, "little-brained people".
definitely upbeat news . Its going to be very interesting to see how things play out. Im staying firm on my opinion that Manhattan RE will continue to decline because of the carnage in bank employment and the oversupply of housing.
"re-distributive policies of the Democratic party"
Like the tax burdens of the Reagan administration? Or are you only okay with this "redistribution" for military spending, but not for infrastructure, healthcare and other social programs? This myth of "redistribution" from the right is such a joke. Try looking up some pesky facts first and you will see that what Rush, Hannity, Kudlow and friends feed you for your talking points is thin on reality and long on twisted misinformation.
with a name like malthus, i'm not surprised that you think all people lower than you on the economic ladder are considered 'little-brained'. i'm sure you just can't wait to exterminate them all.
“The basic message is that the rate of job cuts is diminishing, and that’s good news,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. “Still, you’re seeing job cuts everywhere except education, health care, government. I don’t think we’re at bottom yet in employment.”
So, if this is good news, how would we characterize jobs actually going up?
It's not even that the decline has stopped, but the rate of decline is what we are cheering about?
well waverly, since you ask, I certainly consider defense and most infrastructure spending as collective benefits, so yes it is fair to ask those with the most means to pay a disproportionate share of the costs.
what i object to are the moves which create benefits that are financed exclusively by a small portion of the population. when people get something in return for nothing, they don't care about it. one of the great things about social security, unemployment and medicare are that every worker pays into it - seeing that money come out of your paycheck is an excellent incentive to make sure that it is properly run.
"There has to be a way to spin this as bad news."
Absolutely. I'm still waiting for the doomer spin. I guess the bears will just lie down and aceept the news without taking t apart liek they always try to unsuccessfully do?
On that point printer I do agree with you. I think the tax plan for HC is going to end up being the Pelosi Plan that was $1 million for families or $600 or $700k for individuals. The $275k number is just not going to get it done. Also, being a good Democrat who favors helping others out, I am more in favor of adding some additional tax brackets for the uber-wealthy instead of banging on families in the NE or WC who are making $3-500k.
cc - I ask you the same question:
Realistically, what would you consider of positive jobs report at this point?
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2009/08/why_the_unemployment_rate_fell.html
About ready *is* onto something.
That said, there's been a couple of new postings for positions in my field just this week. It's been like the Sahara out there for months, but July and August I'm starting to see a little bit of an uptick. Then again, a good friend just got laid off last week, so things from my perspective are still so-so.
i think the characterization should be -- hey, the rate of job loss has dropped for the first month since roughly a year ago. we're not out of the woods yet by any means; lets keep up whatever we're doing (which, not be sarcastic--I have no idea what this is) and see where we stand next month and a few months after that as well. we will be examining the costs and implications of extending unemployment benefits because we recognize that an even larger group of people is now hurting.
our cheerleading reminds me of the kids soccer game where the losing team gets a trophy as well just so the kids don't feel bad.
> Where are the bears and the groom & doomers?
Right here... and still correct!
I told you the economy would get better, I told you stocks would get better (and that I was near 100% invested), and I told you Manhattan RE would tank (and its still tanking).
What a glorious day!
Why do you ask, guys who called it wrong?
"about - it is well documented that you wish for prices to come down so that you can buy the apartment you desire, and that you see rising unemployment (as measured by your pet obsession - U6) as the catalyst for that"
Wait, now bulls are changing OUR rationale???? I love it!
"our cheerleading reminds me of the kids soccer game where the losing team gets a trophy as well just so the kids don't feel bad."
lol
from floyd norris:
"There are clear signs that world economy is turning up, or at least not sinking further, but today’s jobs report is not a bright spot. The unemployment rate went down, from 9.5 percent to 9.4 percent, but that is statistically unimportant given the sampling error in the household survey. In any case, it fell not because more people said they had jobs — employment was down in that survey — but because fewer people were still looking for work."
Hahahah. You guys are in fine form today. Lots of funny stuff here. It's like coming back to a bar where the regulars have known each other since grammar school. A round on me!
i'll have an orange julius, thanks. i got next
I think there are two truly important data points that came out today, and neither one is the manufactured unemployment number (although that number is tangentially involved to point 1).
1) The dollar rallied today as equities went up. As I wrote about (quoting Mish's thesis) technical indicators have pointed toward a potentially strong rally in the dollar. This thesis was confirmed by Goldman's call earlier in the week advising their clients to get out of Euros and into dollars. Now with unemployment abating, at least as a narrative if not a reality, and a fear of potential rate increases in the next six months or so, which I highly doubt, the dollar rally has a fundamental narrative to go along with the technical indicators. If today's trend follows through, expect some declines in commodities, sideways to down trading, and continued strength in the dollar.
2) Blatic Dry index is appreciably down as China puts on the breaks. If this trend continues watch out for additional pressures on Copper, Iron Ore etc. I don't know if this slow down portends a makor correction in China's stock market, but I would not be buying any FXI
ok...make it a double....
"There are clear signs that world economy is turning up, or at least not sinking further"
It is funny how we live in a day and age where falling less quickly means things are "improving".
improving? happy days are here again. i am beginning to wonder is this coming fall is going to be a re-do of last fall together with last march.
I'm sorry, but I don't agree that the slightly lower unemployment number means anything is turning around. I completely believe this HAS to be due to the fuzzy math they use to calculate the rate. Can someone please explain to me how the unemployment rate can get better when several hundred thousand people (net) lost their jobs last month? Unemployment rates only truly drop in a good way when net jobs are added to the economy. Many times, many people have touted the general principle that we need to see at least 2.5% GDP growth before you will see new jobs being added to the economy. Did anyone see 2.5% GDP growth?
Please, someone explain to me how more job losses equals a drop in unemployment rate!!!
NYCROBOT, read the NPR article posted by EVNYC. Unemployment is the percentage of people in the labor force who do not have jobs and are looking for jobs. If someone is discouraged, not actively looking for a job, the exit the labor force. Simple example, labor force is 100 people, 9 are unemployed, 9% unemployment. Two people quit looking for work, labor force is now 98 people, 7 are unemployed. unemployment is now about 7.2%. Crude example, but shows the mechanics. This month the labor force shrunk by about 442,000, I believe was the figure.
EVNYC, thanks for the basement wishes. It could have been much worse. We have water sensors in the basement, and ADT calls us when they go off. This time was so-so.
over 200,000 more new unemployed and over 400,000 employees left the workforce, and this is good news ?
Bulls - I agree that less unemployed than expected is good news, but come on, be honest - the absolute numbers which make up the statistic are hardly positive. Has there ever been this many unemployed leaving the workforce in one month ever before? How can one check this? This is "retired" consumption people...
All the people who think this not good news are missing the point - yes "less bad" is good, because nothing turns around on a dime. It needs to be gradual improvement, and it looks like that's happening - it needs to start somewhere. Not sure why anyone would be unhappy about this news - the only way for more people to get employed again is for the economy to turn around - who is against that??
What does happiness have to do with anything? People are posting facts and drawing conclusions. Other people are posting additional facts that lead to different conclusions. If people want a cheerleading session they should just tune in to Larry Kudlow.
I think that a fair minded appraisal of the unemployment numbers would lead one to conclude that we are continuing to lose jobs. Whether or not we are losing them at a slower pace is debatable due to the fact that the way unemployment is calculated is a highly manipulated statistic. That being said, my concern is that once the economy stops shedding jobs, let's just say in 2010, what will be the catalyst to resume hiring again. Right now, government stimulus is the only agent for growth in the economy, which as we know, is problematic due to the fact that we, unlike China, need to borrow the money that we use for stimulus. If, when the stimulus programs end, there is muted demand for labor, we could see unemployment hover above 7% for many many years.
That being said, it is almost certain that GDP for Q3 and Q4 of this year will be positive, and things will appear much better than they did during the same time frame in 2008.
From a stock market perspective, how much of that is already priced in? My sense is that some time between now and October there will be an appreciable correction. This will be necessary to lure more money into the market in an effort to send it higher, which is clearly what the powers that be want to happen. My own sense is that the rally for now has peaked and that the pullback will occur in the next week or two. The dollar will continue to strengthen and we should see an appreciable pull back in oil and copper, and precious metals. However, considering that the market rose while the dollar strengthened on Friday, we may see the market rise for a bit longer, but it seems to me that oil and copper are heading down.
However, by October or November, the market will start to rise pushing us up towards, and perhaps beyond, 1100 on the S and P.
how can the stock market do what you are suggesting without real earnings? how can there be real earnings if people don't have the money (and can't get credit--thank goodness) to buy things?
the stock market can remain irrational...
interestingly analysts have started increasing earnings estimates. of course they can lower them at any time before earnings announcements, but it could get interesting.
dividends are generally in the sewer. i saw a prediction for a broad but shallow contraction in earnings in just about everything EXCEPT financials, which are now expected to sail us across the ocean. how's that for a laughfest. anyone notice how the foreign banks keep writing off losses?
where oh where are the toxic assets? presumably, some amounts will be written off for years or did they just stick them in a drawer and say to hell with them?
CC and AR, I agree with you with respect to the economy and earnings. However, like AR quotes, the stock market is irrational. The Fed and Obama want the market to go higher so that people feel less poor and hopefully will start dipping into their savings to spend. The media is Obama's pliant tool, which I am sure you have noticed. Therefor, what needs to happen is that, for now, the market will correct down, thus helping to increase supply for treasuries as the Fed begins to end quantitative easing. Also, the "correction" will hopefully lure the infamous "sideline money" back into the ponzi scheme, and in so doing drive up the market. Obviously Bernanke is in a pinch because, as the markets rise, so do long-term yields and mortgages, which he does not want. On the other hand, the only vehicle at the Fed's disposal to make people feel richer is the stock market, so he needs to do everything he can, including (according to zero hedge) loan banks money that they are putting to work in the stock market to drive up prices.
I have no idea how long they can keep this dance going, but my objective is to invest succesfully, not maitain slavish adherence to any ideological theory, or what I "think" should happen. The market is not rational, and I believe we are still in a secular bear market, and so one needs to trade around the hedge here and look for opportunities. Last week I mentioned the strengthening dollar, which is a trend that may be in play, for sure it showed some real strength into the end of last week.
When I look at certian companies that I used to own but have sold such as CAT and NWL, I look at a 40% plus move in the last 30 days or so. Can they run up another 40% in August...possible, but the odds are against it. If I had to make a guess, I would say that CAT ends the year around 50 and NWL around 15, but I am not interesting in entering those positions again right now.