Calling all Lemmings who believe in green shoots!

typo - meant $4+ billion, NOT $4+ trillion

buy gold!

pysche!!! it's really $4+ trillion. What, too large a number to believe? LOL.

Already did. But, need to convert to the physical metal from my paper Gold holdings.

we;re out 100% as of friday.

"It won't happen all in one fall sweep, but the process will be starting."

Also typo in "one fell sweep," not "one fall sweep."

Goldbug much?

Thanks for the heads up.

4 months ago in this thread:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/10093-we-did-not-see-the-bottom-and-we-are-heading-much-further-down-people

you said this:

"This is an excellent opportunity to get out if you haven't yet. A gift, shall we say to those who didn't get out early the last time."

I followed your advice, got out, and hid in my bunker - but I missed out on 40% upside. I hope you are right this time. I am still hunkered down here in my bunker with my rifle and stockpile of campbell's soup.

http://www.weblogcartoons.com/cartoons/end.gif

pomo?

>> The flag/trip wire trigger was put in near the close of the markets last Friday.

Can you be a bit more specific on what trigger that was?

"So, they've been taking YOUR money to lessen the damage when the next wave of problems start. ($4+ trillion commercial real estate, Alt-A, option ARM etc. mortgages -you've seen the CSFB reset schedule- and not to mention the quadrillion dollar notional value of the unregulated derivatives market for starters)."

CSFB's toxic assets went into an employee compensation pool. They are doing well.

Get whole, get out. I'll never do it again.

NOBODY can predict the future but there will be always some datapoints...

Low Quality Rally

Reuters did some nifty work and showed that in this last leg of the rally, which started on July 10th, CCC-rated stocks have surged 26.4%, BB-rated stocks are up 19.3%, while AAA-rated stocks have risen 9.5%. Look %u2014 when China is up 80% year-to-date, India 60%, and both the Kospi and Hang Seng up 40% %u2014 and dare we say, the SOX index up 60% in less than six months %u2014 it%u2019s probably safe to assume that we have a huge speculative junky market on our hands. And, we know from the 2000-2001 and 2007-2008 experiences, they don%u2019t tend to end well.

>> The flag/trip wire trigger was put in near the close of the markets last Friday.

Can you be a bit more specific on what trigger that was?

GS stock was weak during the session

maybe more important large discount SP/ES futures over cash

Did the Plunge protection team run out of money?

Life is a box of market timers

Converted all assets into rice and beans.
Have them moored off shore in a barge.
Shopping today for a Zodiac raft.
Mention SE to me when the great barder economy begins for preferential treatment.
That goes for bulls, bears, and, those who desire to demonstrate their lack of intelegence...daily.
All will be welcome. Get to the shore early...gonna be a long line.

why always go to this extreme?

looks cozy..
http://www.historywiz.com/images/coldwar/shelter1960.jpg

falcogold1, your posts tickle my funny bone!

"It won't happen all in one fall sweep, but the process will be starting."

Also typo in "one fell sweep," not "one fall sweep."

Maybe he meant some of it won't happen till mid December?

POMOs - permanent open market operations. He is reffering to the fed printing hundreds of billions, buying treasuries from primary dealers, and the dealers taking this printed money and leveraging up in equity markets. 243Bln of 300Bln in announced treasury purchases is almost over, expires mid september. once the nuclear arsenal of QE winds down, the speculation may end.

30years, hadn't considered that.

Jsmith, thanks for reposting that 4-month old thread. Mmafia, care to discuss what was going on exactly 4 months ago? Perhaps your advice was oh, just a wee bit incorrect?

I just did some research, since March 31st, the fed has printed $285,730,000,000.00 via outright coupon and agency purchases via POMO. There were no sales.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?fuseaction=showSearchForm

Since that time, excess reserves held at depository institutions dropped from 830Bln or so to about 760Bln

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=EXCRESNS

Where did the money go? During this time, the stock market has risen about 25-27% or so, as most of the bounce came from March 9th low to end of March or so that saw S&P go from 666 to 797. Very interesting. So we have 258Bln printed, and excess reserves drop 70Bln - thats 328Bln. I have a feeling most of the money was not used for new loans, rather, was used to leverage and buy equities, prefferreds, and perhaps even distressed debt

So, UD, you're saying that a large portion of the printed money is currently manifested in the current stock market?

My only point about Mmafia's comments was that his crystal ball was perhaps a bit cloudy. Never yet met anyone whose crystal ball was clear for more than a moment or two.

We got tired of looking like Japan so we decided to look more like China. Go comrades!

"once the nuclear arsenal of QE winds down, the speculation may end."
UK increased QE by 50B last week... any doubt what benny will do?

who knows. i certainly dont as this rally caught me by surprise too. Your right abot the crystal ball thing

I still think we look rather Japanese...but my crystal ball seems to be foggier than most!

Yes, i think long-term we look rather japanese as well.

UD, looks like volatility's comin' back. Low volume, insiders selling, market trading at 18.6 time earnings (and the happy earnings, not the sad ones). But who knows?

UD, I understand the POMO's but still wondering what the "trigger" on Friday was.

no idea, i didnt notice anything abnormal..just another up 1.5% day

jsmith9005
8 days ago

"This is an excellent opportunity to get out if you haven't yet. A gift, shall we say to those who didn't get out early the last time."

I followed your advice, got out, and hid in my bunker - but I missed out on 40% upside. I hope you are right this time. I am still hunkered down here in my bunker with my rifle and stockpile of campbell's soup.

jsmith9005:

good! missed the 40% upside? oh, you mean the manufactured 40% push to lure the institutions and retail cash in for the taking?

it's not worth the risk- trying to time that top is essentially gambling. the swiftest ways to lose money is to play counter trend rallies (the bulls side in a bear market, or vice-versa, the bear side in a bull market). go to vegas to chase that kind of returns with that kind of risk appetite. you can do that will small positions and tight stops if you like to "day trade". but you'd be a fool to do that with your life savings, monthly balanced mutual funds or 401k.

this 40% blip that you lament over "missing" is nothing more than a small bump along the way down once this secular bear market is over.

trust me, there are much worse thing that truly will command REAL lamenting once we are done here.

imagine what people said when they "missed" the 50% rally after the 1929 crash, only to then lose almost 90% after that.

http://understandingthestockmarket.us/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/39b2b_stock_market_crash_1930_10d.gif

but, but the last time, the gov't didn't act fast enough and that's what caused the depression! this time, we printed trillions! (never attempted before in human history by the way).

see my dear lemmings, gov't never SETS directions of the markets, they just "get in the way" and cause "bumps", but they never change the general direction.

But if you don't believe, then load up!!! this is a great "buying on the dips" opportunity!!!!

LMAO.

i must admit, if stocks do selloff I see a flock to treasuries and dollars. I actually sold my gold a few weeks ago, but kept my longer dated calls just in case. Its not that I dont like gold, I do, but with dollar taking a beating and stocks up 50%, i figured a dollar rally and stock selloff might pressure gold.

I fully plan to get back in if it falls to 850 or so.

MMafia, dont yuo agree that if we have another fierce equity selloff, gold will delever, treasuries will rise, and dollar will strengthen? Perhaps that is what makes the selloff feed on itself as corporate bond spreads to treasuries widen, and stronger dollar hurts multinationals.

I figure when rates start rising, gold will have its day!

UD - I have never been sold on gold as an asset class -- as it serves little real purpose. It hit $1000 18 months ago and has bounce around on fear since then. I restructured a gold company in 2001 and they had presold all of their gold at $245 oz for 4 years -- so hard to tell what is real, hedges, capex depressed or other...

There has to be a better inflationary hedge ao that when it is time to get oiut of the water, prices do not collapse back down to $300 oz...

yea, many think that way. I know stevejhx does. we had some nice threads on the topic. I got into gold mid 2007 when credit started getting hairy, and fed was about to embark on massive rate cuts. it was around mid 600s then. So as far as an asset class, it did quite well for me. Granted I lost many profits shorting this latest rally a few times, that happens sometimes when you have a trader mentality.

however, I do think that gold may have its day. just who knows when

I agree UD- I'm in the middle of transitioning paper Gold to real bullion. Last week, I converted paper Gold to cash in prep for the coming (in progress) equities rout.

Waiting to buy bullion once Gold dips for the last time before it takes off for good. $880s is the range to convert to bullion.

tips

I was wrong folks.

I was wrong about when it would happen. I did not think that the market would grind up as long as it did.

I admit that I am the worst market timer. However, I also did convert to bullion.

Nevertheless, the main course is finally being served up to us. The appetizer was pretty nerve wracking. The main course will be downright scary.

Years ago, I advised people here not to buy an apartment in the city and rent instead. I also advised people to take their down payment cash and put it into Gold.

I also warned that the crisis of a couple of years ago was just an appetizer, with the main course being served up in some form of a currency crisis in the future.

I believe we are at, or near that point.

As Dan (from daneric) shows:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S-NCeYTfvwI/AAAAAAAAFHs/qRcG1o1FGdU/s1600/wilshire weekly.png

where we could be headed.

We may go up and down in a bumpy ride downwards, or go straight down. Whichever the case, the infamous "P3" may have finally begun.

Remember, when BOTH the USD and Gold go up, that is that direct sign of the final battle being fought in this war.

Which one is the better one to go to in case of a final flight to safety situation?

During the last crisis, the USD won unanimously.

However, in this crisis, Gold is winning- it's near record highs against the USD (and at record highs in other currencies). I'd highly advise against investing in "paper" gold ETFs however.

Good luck to all.

pretty scary when the dollar is up, gold is up and oil is down. margin call gentelemen...

"We may go up and down in a bumpy ride downwards, or go straight down. Whichever the case, the infamous "P3" may have finally begun.
Remember, when BOTH the USD and Gold go up, that is that direct sign of the final battle being fought in this war."

Wait a second, I'm totally confused. Is this before or after Judgement Day?

Years ago when you told me not to buy an apartment I took 80 k put a down payment on an 400 k apt, rented it to
cover my mortgage and maintenance then sold it for 1.5 million

doing the opposite of what you said made me 1.1 mil on 80 k

MMafia: What bothers me is your absolute giddiness at the potential collapse of our financial markets. Which will not only have a negative effect on the fiat bankers, but tens of millions of the volk. So when gold is at $5000 and the dollar being pushed around in wheelbarrows to buy flour, you and Marc Faber can ching, ching your champagne glasses together in Thailand. (:

Kieth,
the commodity will be potable water, rice and beans. I've said it before and I'll say it again. I have mine moored off shore in an industrial barge. We meet on the beach for a bartered exchange. Get there early, it's gonna be busy and mention SE for a favorable place on line.

Falco: I'm also an alarmist. Join us on our commune. We need firearms & antibiotics :)

The problem with owning physical gold is that it is taxable as a "collectable" which is much higher than the capital gains taxes on stocks.

I own my gold in my IRA rollover account and can thus defer taxes for a long period of time.

Yes, I know, "paper is paper," but I'm not overly worried (yet) on that front.

In the ETF, GLD.

I am building a little casita in Costa Rica, if it truly gets that bad I have a clean water supply, fruit trees and an ocean full of fish. And for you falco plenty of rice and beans. Pura Vida.

KeithB: N-C-S America one contiguous land mass. How are you going to protect your casita?

A Tea Party Militia funded with Krugerrands?

Folks, just be aware that paper Gold, such as GLD is risky.

There are no audits on GLD's actual physical bullion it's "supposed" to have in vaults. There's already a blowup in the silver paper markets due to JPM price manipulation in the spot markets currently being investigated by the CTFC. There are alternative Gold funds that are allocated and audited everyday, reconciled and posted publicly.

Most importantly, you are still liable for counterparty risk. One of the main reasons why Gold is considered the ultimate store of value is because there is no counterparty risk if you outright own the physical Gold.

But if you go through paper markets to gain exposure to the metal, you involve counterparties. Good luck when the shiet hits the fan- you'll be in a very long line of redemption requests along with everyone else as the counterparties can't service the mad rush out of the ponzi fiat paper market and virtual derivative markets.

Skynet gave a glimpse last week of what's coming. 70% of trading volume being driven by Skynet and collocated servers executing micro-second trades right at the exchange floors.

When the algos go through a massive inter-market "stop-loss" sweep with no bids on the way down due to the velocity of transactions being executed by the HFT systems, you get massive price collapses. NYSE and NASDAQ pointing fingers at each other, both claiming their computer systems functioned perfectly and did not have issues.

As Marc Faber put it when someone asked him about Accenture dropping from $30 to a penny in an instant, "what you saw there will happen to the entire exchanges".

I know, crazy talk right? Think about this: they can't explain what happened during the 1,000 point drop. Makes sense. The system itself is fundamentally flawed. HFT algos pushing markets up since last march on light volume, and nobody cared. But now, the same HFT algos dumping via cross exchange stop-loss sweeps on the way down, and now we have investigations. LOL.

The system itself needs to be fixed, including the unregulated quadrillion dollar derivatives market. I doubt they will fix the system in time, thanks to political masturbation that's distorting economic policy.

Expect more repeats of what we saw last week (traders are beginning to distrust the system), with the PPT stepping in each time to reverse the drop.

The world is beginning to realize the sham of the global financial system built on worthless paper that is magically created and given to the TBTF entities of the world.

Totally agree...

Good prospectus material.
1)Decay factor(i.e. expenses)
2)Limited legal protections and limited recourse
3)Risk of theft
4)Unsegregated assets
5)No inspection of assets or monitoring of sub custodians
..im sure there''s more (in the age of Goldman CDOs and Bernie Madoff no idea why people
buy this crap

Investors should be aware that the gradual decline in the amount of gold represented by the Shares will occur
regardless of whether the trading price of the Shares rises or falls in response to changes in the price of gold.
The estimated ordinary operating expenses of the Trust, which accrue daily, are described in the Trust’s Annual
Report on Form 10-K, incorporated herein by reference.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The Trust is not registered as an investment company under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not
required to register under such act. Consequently, Shareholders do not have the regulatory protections
provided to investors in investment companies. The Trust will not hold or trade in commodity futures
contracts regulated by the CEA, as administered by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC.
Furthermore, the Trust is not a commodity pool for purposes of the CEA, and none of the Sponsor, the Trustee
or the Marketing Agent is subject to regulation by the CFTC as a commodity pool operator or a commodity
trading advisor in connection with the Shares. Consequently, Shareholders do not have the regulatory
protections provided to investors in CEA-regulated instruments or commodity pools.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There is a risk that some or all of the Trust’s gold bars stored on behalf of the Trust could be lost, damaged or
stolen. Access to the Trust’s gold bars could also be restricted by natural events (such as an earthquake) or
human actions (such as a terrorist attack). Any of these events may adversely affect the operations of the Trust
and, consequently, an investment in the Shares.
----------------------------------------------------
Shareholders’ recourse against the Trust, the Trustee and the Sponsor, under New York law, the Custodian,
under English law, and any subcustodians under the law governing their custody operations is limited. The
Trust does not insure its gold. The Custodian maintains insurance with regard to its business on such terms
and conditions as it considers appropriate. The Trust is not a beneficiary of any such insurance and does not
have the ability to dictate the existence, nature or amount of coverage. Therefore, the Custodian may not
maintain adequate insurance or any insurance with respect to the gold held by the Custodian on behalf of the
Trust. In addition, the Custodian and the Trustee do not require any direct or indirect subcustodians to be
insured or bonded with respect to their custodial activities or in respect of the gold held by them on behalf of
the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the Trust’s gold which is not covered by
insurance and for which no person is liable in damages.
---------------------------------------------------------
Gold which is part of a deposit for a purchase order or part of a redemption distribution will be held for a
time in the Trust Unallocated Account and, previously or subsequently in, the Authorized Participant
Unallocated Account of the purchasing or redeeming Authorized Participant. During those times, the Trust and
the Authorized Participant, as the case may be, will have no proprietary rights to any specific bars of gold held
by the Custodian and will each be an unsecured creditor of the Custodian with respect to the amount of gold
held in such unallocated accounts. In addition, if the Custodian fails to allocate the Trust’s gold in a timely
manner, in the proper amounts or otherwise in accordance with the terms of the Unallocated Bullion Account
Agreement, or if a subcustodian fails to so segregate gold held by it on behalf of the Trust, unallocated gold
will not be segregated from the Custodian’s assets, and the Trust will be an unsecured creditor of the
Custodian with respect to the amount so held in the event of the insolvency of the Custodian. In the event the
Custodian becomes insolvent, the Custodian’s assets might not be adequate to satisfy a claim by the Trust or
the Authorized Participant for the amount of gold held in their respective unallocated gold accounts.
In the case of the insolvency of the Custodian, a liquidator may seek to freeze access to the gold held in all of
the accounts held by the Custodian, including the Trust Allocated Account. Although the Trust would be able
to claim ownership of properly allocated gold, the Trust could incur expenses in connection with asserting
such claims, and the assertion of such a claim by the liquidator could delay creations and redemptions of
Baskets.
----------------------------------------
The
Trustee does not undertake to monitor the performance of any subcustodian. Furthermore, the Trustee may
have no right to visit the premises of any subcustodian for the purposes of examining the Trust’s gold bars or
any records maintained by the subcustodian, and no subcustodian will be obligated to cooperate in any review
the Trustee may wish to conduct of the facilities, procedures, records or creditworthiness of such subcustodian.
See the section of the Trust’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, incorporated herein by reference captioned
“Custody of the Trust’s Gold” for more information about subcustodians that may hold the Trust’s gold bars

Keith,
I've got my place in Costa Rica also!
Nacoya,...second hill back but, high'enuf to see the ocean yet close enough to 'Pachu Mama' for an occasional schroom and schmooze with the tye-dye hippie girls. Prahaps a little venture into town for an evening at the Beatle Bar (oh, that Ringo). GO TICOS!!!

Yes Riversider, exactly. GLD, for example, is purely a liquidity exposure instrument into the Gold market. It is not a "safety" play, for the reasons discussed above.

For example, bullionvault.com (a closed trading system with a link to the spot market via bots) is a better safety play- you outright own the allocated gold in the vault you choose (Swiss vault is the best option). Every day, the allocated Gold is audited, reconciled and publicly posted for all to review. There is no counter-party or middle-man involved, and the US Gov't can't confiscate your Gold in a Swiss vault like it did back in the Great Depression. There are other competing services to bullionvault out there, but the bottom line is, you have to own the Gold outright, legally, with no in-between middle men or counter-parties.

It's all an inverted pyramid scheme. Do you really think the GLD ETF actually has the Gold to back up the amount of ETF share issuance? Of course not. It's just another take of the fractional banking system. They might have a certain %, but if there is a "run" on the ETF due to a lack of trust in it, and everyone wants to cash out at the same time, well guess what? Not enough Gold in the vaults for the ETF to sell and pay the investor!! You may simply just lose your position.

As outlandish as this may seem, it is in fact currently a brewing situation with the silver ETF market. JPM is being investigated for manipulating the Silver prices through various lease/short mechanisms, probably in corroboration with the FED (Gold and Silver are the FED's mortal enemy as it is a competitor to the fiat paper USD).

This is the dilemma I am facing. I've been holding a massive short position on the equities market along with my bullion, but I don't want to wait too long for more profits. When "it" happens and the markets tank, I may not be able to realize my profits from my short positions because the system is broken. I won't be able to cash my profits our of my broker account and may just lose it altogether in the panic.

So, it is probably wise to not be too greedy, cash out earlier and forgo additional profits from the short positions before the system breaks altogether. At that point, one should have most of their assets in tangible instruments such as Gold and yes, even real estate.

Do not be left holding the bag of virtual digits in a brokerage or banking account that can vanish in the blink of an eye. You have been warned. Last week was the preview that the market is telegraphing to us. Ignore at your own peril.

Mmafia. I appreciate the level of fear you are pumping. Quite nice on a Saturday wondering about the euro trade on Monday. (FYI, I don't thing ecb is strong enough, nor politically power enough to hold euro block in current form).

But I'm keeping my $ in a nice FDIC 2%, yes a little weary about the sipc.... But until you show me an army paid by gold by the goldbugs, I'm dollar stays. And heck bet my $ army with real guns can kick your goldmining army in your imagination anyday. Flmao. But don't disagree with you that this ain't over by a long shot.

Problem with Gold is most of us cannot go 100% long. It's only apropriate for 5-10% of a P.A.

Conspiracy end of world morons. I remember when I was about 10 listening to people think it was the end of the world and you had to have crystals or some other new age drug induced crap to save the world. How often has the end of the world been predicted? Gold bugs are just more educated versions of people with tinfoil hats. Check out stocks from the mid 60s to early 80s. Tell me people didn't talk about the end of the world by 1974.

If any of you are familiar with the automatic earth blogspot, one of the authors of that site (Stoneleigh) was in NYC a few weeks ago. I attended that discussion and she is very pessimistic about the future.

One of her points for surviving the crash (which she envisions happening in less than 5 years) was to stay as much in cash as possible. Gold was an ok investment if you don't need it short term. In her view, prices of all things (except necessities) would be falling while money supply shrank / credit contracted. It won't be until inflation kicks in when gold (and RE) would then be a better investment (although those would have other risks, but your Swiss idea address most of them).

I'd have to go back and try to better understand her support arguments (I consider myself more of a student than an instructor in these matters), but could direct you to their website if you are curious (and want to bypass the middleman...) http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

Did any other streeteasy regulars go to Stoneleigh's discussion a few weeks back?

Since this is the first time that someone has been pessimistic, then this Stoneleigh person must be right about the end of the world. RUN!

KeithB - that ocean full of fish is now an ocean full of oil contaminated fish that cant be eaten for 20+ years.

Thanks to the Drill Baby Drill crowd! Palin 2012!

Don't get it mixed up.

It's not the end of the world.

It's also, not a conspiracy theory.

It's just the end of the financial system as it exists since its creation after WWII and Bretton Woods.

This is nothing new or unprecedented. This has happened in our past many many times. Especially when fiat money explodes out of control due to greed and debts.

Life will continue as it did all the many times this has occurred. The issue is that if you're not prepared, your wealth will get taken from you.

agreed that this won't be the end of the world - just trading ideas on best managing a "challenging" future. Investing in gold has merits. Lintintin can "run" if he (or she) wants to.

I am just saying that there is one argument out there for holding cash as a way to limit the downside risk which I found to have merit (an option open to anyone as long as you prepare in advance)

W67 - which accounts are crediting 2% these days?

Ok, before we all start clamoring that the worst is over after today's 400 point DOW gain, just remember what happened in October 2008 after TARP and other nice programs were announced:

That Monday, the Dow was up 936 points!!!! For all the same reasons as today, thanks to the weekend emergency "bailout" work.

So don't get all nutty with a mere 400 point day folks... that's not even half of the "high" we got after the trillion dollar morphine shot we just received. Like a true drug, its effect diminishes with each hit.

We all know what happened after October 2008. Will it happen again? No one knows for sure, but my belief is that all the $1 trillion bailout bought was a little time, and much less than we think. Not even enough to really kick the proverbial can down the road...

To refresh your memories:
-------------------------
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/13/markets/markets_newyork/?postversion=2008101315%20\

The key is, like it was back in October 2008, even though the DOW exploded almost 1,000 points higher, the credit market remained frozen.

Fast forward to today. Again, the DOW ramped up 400 points after Euro TARP was announced, but guess what the Euro did?

Sold off most of its gains.

Those are tell-tale signs folks. Heed them.

lecker, my bad... it hurts so much to earn 2% I stopped looking for 3 months (let my wife handle the bulk of cash accts)... it's FKING 1.0% and thatz with crazy debit purchases, showing up in my briefs on a full moon, and washing the bank's windows as needed...

When did having money make you a servant? If I see Geitner.... he better turn down his hearing aid. Keebler elf... Did he sell his house yet?

on green shoots live termintes

W67 - thanks for response - I was figuring 1% was about the highest I was seeing / so this seems consistent.

MMafia - I agree with you that the worst is not over by a long shot. I daresay its only just beginning as we are getting glimpses of "the man behind the curtain"

Me too, w67? Did he offload the Larchmont place?

Hope you folks took heed and made asset allocation adjustments accordingly.

It's still not too late yet, but time is running out.

The $1 trillion really didn't buy the Euro much did it? So what next? $2 trillion? How about $10 trillion?

You get the point. It's all monopoly money.

The cat is outta the bag, and it simply refuses to get back in.

what asset allocation do you suggest?

"Hope you folks took heed and made asset allocation adjustments accordingly"

I ignored your warnings last year (thank God) and made a ton of money by going long equities at the depths of the bear market. Today is a blip - we are going higher over the next 3-5 years. You were wrong last year and you are wrong again. The world is not ending, the sky is not falling. The economy is recovering and this will continue for the foreseeable future. My advice to you? Go outside, get some fresh air and and clear your head. GLTY.

"I ignored your warnings last year (thank God) and made a ton of money by going long equities at the depths of the bear market. Today is a blip - we are going higher over the next 3-5 years. You were wrong last year and you are wrong again."

More power to you! Keep buying the dips then.

You have been very well trained by now to do that by the market (casino) manipulators- in fact, you are the perfect example of a lemming.

Keep buying the dips. Keep buying the dips.

People who REALLY took my advice from 3-4 years ago did the following:

1. Did NOT buy an overpriced NYC apartment and rented instead

2. Took the downpayment capital and invested it in Gold, which has vastly outperformed the stock market in the past 3-4 years and is currently near all time highs.

3. Did not participate in this manufactured equity rally that lasted for about a year (very costly, look at all the money printing we did to get a few statistics to fool people into believing that we are in a sustainable recovery)

Now you have selectively picked up #3 only, which is putting me out of context. If you had followed #1 and #2, you would be very happy right now, and you would not have gambled with your money by betting on a manufactured equity rally that is disconnected from fundamentals. Might as well go to the casino if you're going to do that.

Good luck.

"manufactured equity rally"

The rally was based on earnings, dude - you can call it "manufactured" if it makes you feel better, however you are ignoring the reality, which is the corporate earnings are rising (and have been for the past year)

"few statistics to fool people into believing that we are in a sustainable recovery"

We recovered from something far worse 70 years ago - the Great Depression. We will recover from this as well. Cheer up.

"Did NOT buy an overpriced NYC apartment and rented instead"

I don't buy things that I believe are grossly overpriced. So, no, I did not buy a NYC apt.

mmafia. where do you go to take delivery of bullion? Any particular firms? Where do you store it? Home safe? Bank?

"I don't buy things that I believe are grossly overpriced. So, no, I did not buy a NYC apt."

Sorry for calling you a lemming then. I take that back.

"We recovered from something far worse 70 years ago - the Great Depression. We will recover from this as well. Cheer up."

I have no doubt that we'll recover this time around as well. The issue is, it's going to take much longer than 1-2 years to clean up the toxic mess we've been building up since the 80s.

"mmafia. where do you go to take delivery of bullion? Any particular firms? Where do you store it? Home safe? Bank?"

There are many ways so it all depends on your personal preference. For me, it's a vault in Switzerland. Yes, it's riskier than having it in my home in case Switzerland gets invaded in some european/world war scenario, but having it at home is also risky as it may get stolen, either by robbers or by the US gov't. Check out bullionvault.com and its competitors too.

"For me, it's a vault in Switzerland"

How much do you pay for storage? Do you visit it to make sure it's there?

I looked at the site (bullionvault.com). Much easier to just buy GLD - if you want gold exposure, that is (which I don't). GL.

"Yes, it's riskier than having it in my home in case Switzerland gets invaded in some european/world war scenario, but having it at home is also risky as it may get stolen, either by robbers or by the US gov't. "

MMafia, this whole sentence made me spew water all over my keyboard.

"either by robbers or by the US gov't"

Aren't they the same thing?

Best thing the gov't can do is accept the limits of it's ability to manipulate the economy. We're not so advanced that we can wipe out recessions. Gov't should relax. If they need to do anything it should be to ensure transparency and fairness in financial markets and break up the too big to fail banks and make sure the regulation we do have serves a valid purpose, and last of all stop the subsidies and fix the tax code.

We should adopt a flat tax.

Ok, hope some of you folks got out of the stock market 7 weeks ago when I resuscitated this thread.

This might be your last chance as we are very near to making the DEATH CROSS (200/50 EMA negative cross-over).

What happens next? Just scroll up and read.

Good luck all.

You people sure are smart. I don't know who is correct on this thread, but you all know a lot more about this topic than I do.

Math is not my strong suit. I'm a publicist and a "words" person.

I've got my money up at Sanford Bernstein. At least I knew enough not to "invest"
it with Bernie Madoff.

So, what should I do now? I don't have a mortgage on my condo, and I don't have any debt (credit card or otherwise.) I don't have any kids (no pets and not even any house-plants).

Falcogold: You continue to amuse me. Thanks. (Because now I'm nervous!)