There are many old inventory threads that have meandered down the path of predictable bull/bear smackdowns. This inventory plummet is getting serious, so lets try again. Not so long ago our inventory -appropriately scrubbed per UD methods of removing duplicates, listings with no address, etc., was pushing 11,500. Now, through the heat of the summer, we have watched it plummet to just over 9,200.... [more]
There are many old inventory threads that have meandered down the path of predictable bull/bear smackdowns. This inventory plummet is getting serious, so lets try again.
Not so long ago our inventory -appropriately scrubbed per UD methods of removing duplicates, listings with no address, etc., was pushing 11,500. Now, through the heat of the summer, we have watched it plummet to just over 9,200. That's one hell of a drop, and one that nobody predicted. None of the pontificators here saw this in their collective crystal balls. It is safe to say the summer activity predictions were UNANIMOUSLY WRONG!
So what does the future hold for potential buyers and sellers as they watch the trajectory continue downward, coupled with strength in the equity market and historically low interest rates? Noah at Urban digs has talked exhaustively about this first leg down and comfort levels, etc., etc. But I wonder if we may look back to the summer of 2009 as the end of the collapse of the Manhattan market. I beleive the future will see sellers emboldened by continued tightening of inventory and buyers who are willing to enter the market at current levels. The longer this goes on the less chance we will see a further widespread collapse without some kind of trigger. Sideline buyers have a difficult decision to make.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
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Response by Post87deflation
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 314
Member since: Jul 2009
No one gets shot here. Just taunted.
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Response by truthskr10
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4088
Member since: Jul 2009
bjw2103
No bullets from my gun brother, I'm in the same camp. I don't get emotional over real estate.
I am in business though and I dabble in commercial real estate. The second wave of incoming looks really bad, but hey, maybe there is a cold front on the horizon that kills the storm.
I'm just not seeing it....yet.
And for the listings I've been following for 4/5 months, less than 10% that were "contract signed" did not close.
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Response by truthskr10
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4088
Member since: Jul 2009
*correction
And for the listings I've been following for 4/5 months, only less than 10% that were "contract signed" did close.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"truthskr, it's all contracts, which is why Noah is saying it'll show up in the Q3-Q4 reports. I'm definitely not bullish, but these are signs that the market may be stabilizing"
So now bjw likes contract data again? i love it.
Key thing is, that contract data has pricing DOWN.
Thats not what you call a sign of stabilizing.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"And for the listings I've been following for 4/5 months, only less than 10% that were "contract signed" did close."
And apartments can take longer than that to close AND, you think no broker has eve put in "contract signed" into a listing that didn't actual sign?
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Response by spinnaker1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
truthskr10 - out of curiousity, are you shopping for new const condos? They can stay "in contract" for years...
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Asky any RE attourney and they'll tell you that the 10% number is on the level of something from SteveF.
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Response by truthskr10
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4088
Member since: Jul 2009
spinnaker1
New const are some of the ones on the list and no, I realize those are phony from the get. (the 50 franklin type listings as an example)
nyc10022
I didn't offer that as a state of affairs of the market percentage.
But it is the current situation I've experienced personally on my market target.
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Response by truthskr10
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4088
Member since: Jul 2009
One off the top of my head was 1 irving pl apt v9ab
05/17/2008Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $3,195,000.
06/25/2008Price decreased by 6% to $2,999,000.
09/13/2008Price decreased by 3% to $2,900,000.
10/21/2008Price decreased by 7% to $2,695,000.
12/05/2008Price decreased by 7% to $2,500,000.
04/29/2009Price decreased by 20% to $2,000,000.
05/15/2009Listing entered contract.
07/03/2009Listing is no longer available
Acris shows no sale
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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
"So now bjw likes contract data again? i love it.
Key thing is, that contract data has pricing DOWN.
Thats not what you call a sign of stabilizing."
You're not following. Contract data for pricing is suspect because your indicator will be an average; contract data for volumes is much easier to swallow because your indicator is a straight sum of contracts signed. If a lot of contracts are being signed, there's a lot of activity; you're not manipulating or at the mercy of skewing, so don't know how you could argue otherwise. Pricing we don't know about yet, but sounds like the lowered prices are what moved people to buy, and anytime you have volume increasing, you can reasonably expect pricing to stabilize. I don't know for sure obviously, but we'll see the results in the quarterly reports.
Yes I know. I think something got lost in translation because I thought I was using that to reinforce my point.
That properties ending up "in contract" are not closing,(less than 10% on the ones I followed) or if they are at a much lower rate than years past.
In fact the agent at the last open house they had said there were 3 offers over 1.5m.
Acris as of today still no sale.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"You're not following. Contract data for pricing is suspect because your indicator will be an average; contract data for volumes is much easier to swallow because your indicator is a straight sum of contracts signed. If a lot of contracts are being signed, there's a lot of activity; you're not manipulating or at the mercy of skewing, so don't know how you could argue otherwise. Pricing we don't know about yet, but sounds like the lowered prices are what moved people to buy, and anytime you have volume increasing, you can reasonably expect pricing to stabilize. I don't know for sure obviously, but we'll see the results in the quarterly reports."
Its not a bad rationalization, but its clearly a rationalization.
As I said, you sway back and forth on this one depending on if it works for you or not.
"If a lot of contracts are being signed, there's a lot of activity; you're not manipulating or at the mercy of skewing, so don't know how you could argue otherwise"
Which would be true of the price data from such as well!!!
You just aren't consistent in your application.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
"and anytime you have volume increasing, you can reasonably expect pricing to stabilize"
This is also bad logic.
The national volume jump turned into further lower prices... mainly because much of it was distress selling.
But, generally, this claim is just not backed up by facts.
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Response by truthskr10
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4088
Member since: Jul 2009
Come on guys, lighten up, it's friday....have a margarita.
All, enjoy the weekend...I'm out. {to drive past all the hampton for sale signs, actually would like to buy the stock of the company that makes "for sale signs"}
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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
"As I said, you sway back and forth on this one depending on if it works for you or not."
I'm just not sure you're getting it - in the past we've always discussed median/average prices from the contract data. I've consistently said I don't like it. Noah was talking about volumes, which is quite different. Seeing lots of contracts signed, you can reasonably say "there's a lot of activity going on," but it's much more difficult to back up a statement like "prices are up/down" simply because a median/average is subject to skew (due to the poor quantity, location, unit mix, and source of data), whereas a simple tally really isn't. The only danger in a straight sum is that you're missing contracts here and there, but if you're seeing 2,000 contracts signed, there's no denying that there's activity! I hope that was clear enough. I don't know what you think I'm "rationalizing." I've been quite consistent in all of this.
"But, generally, this claim is just not backed up by facts."
I'm not sure that's true - it's pretty simple supply and demand economics. If prices have lowered to a point where people are buying a healthy amount of product, why would sellers lower prices even more? I don't know if that's what'll happen, but I think it's totally fair to say that we may be stabilizing.
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9902
Member since: Mar 2009
"I'm not sure that's true - it's pretty simple supply and demand economics. If prices have lowered to a point where people are buying a healthy amount of product, why would sellers lower prices even more?"
No one gets shot here. Just taunted.
bjw2103
No bullets from my gun brother, I'm in the same camp. I don't get emotional over real estate.
I am in business though and I dabble in commercial real estate. The second wave of incoming looks really bad, but hey, maybe there is a cold front on the horizon that kills the storm.
I'm just not seeing it....yet.
And for the listings I've been following for 4/5 months, less than 10% that were "contract signed" did not close.
*correction
And for the listings I've been following for 4/5 months, only less than 10% that were "contract signed" did close.
"truthskr, it's all contracts, which is why Noah is saying it'll show up in the Q3-Q4 reports. I'm definitely not bullish, but these are signs that the market may be stabilizing"
So now bjw likes contract data again? i love it.
Key thing is, that contract data has pricing DOWN.
Thats not what you call a sign of stabilizing.
"And for the listings I've been following for 4/5 months, only less than 10% that were "contract signed" did close."
And apartments can take longer than that to close AND, you think no broker has eve put in "contract signed" into a listing that didn't actual sign?
truthskr10 - out of curiousity, are you shopping for new const condos? They can stay "in contract" for years...
Asky any RE attourney and they'll tell you that the 10% number is on the level of something from SteveF.
spinnaker1
New const are some of the ones on the list and no, I realize those are phony from the get. (the 50 franklin type listings as an example)
nyc10022
I didn't offer that as a state of affairs of the market percentage.
But it is the current situation I've experienced personally on my market target.
One off the top of my head was 1 irving pl apt v9ab
05/17/2008Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $3,195,000.
06/25/2008Price decreased by 6% to $2,999,000.
09/13/2008Price decreased by 3% to $2,900,000.
10/21/2008Price decreased by 7% to $2,695,000.
12/05/2008Price decreased by 7% to $2,500,000.
04/29/2009Price decreased by 20% to $2,000,000.
05/15/2009Listing entered contract.
07/03/2009Listing is no longer available
Acris shows no sale
"So now bjw likes contract data again? i love it.
Key thing is, that contract data has pricing DOWN.
Thats not what you call a sign of stabilizing."
You're not following. Contract data for pricing is suspect because your indicator will be an average; contract data for volumes is much easier to swallow because your indicator is a straight sum of contracts signed. If a lot of contracts are being signed, there's a lot of activity; you're not manipulating or at the mercy of skewing, so don't know how you could argue otherwise. Pricing we don't know about yet, but sounds like the lowered prices are what moved people to buy, and anytime you have volume increasing, you can reasonably expect pricing to stabilize. I don't know for sure obviously, but we'll see the results in the quarterly reports.
truthskr10 - v9ab still hasn't closed.
See: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/13883-is-se-having-a-problem-showing-sales-prices-of-apartments
Yes I know. I think something got lost in translation because I thought I was using that to reinforce my point.
That properties ending up "in contract" are not closing,(less than 10% on the ones I followed) or if they are at a much lower rate than years past.
In fact the agent at the last open house they had said there were 3 offers over 1.5m.
Acris as of today still no sale.
"You're not following. Contract data for pricing is suspect because your indicator will be an average; contract data for volumes is much easier to swallow because your indicator is a straight sum of contracts signed. If a lot of contracts are being signed, there's a lot of activity; you're not manipulating or at the mercy of skewing, so don't know how you could argue otherwise. Pricing we don't know about yet, but sounds like the lowered prices are what moved people to buy, and anytime you have volume increasing, you can reasonably expect pricing to stabilize. I don't know for sure obviously, but we'll see the results in the quarterly reports."
Its not a bad rationalization, but its clearly a rationalization.
As I said, you sway back and forth on this one depending on if it works for you or not.
"If a lot of contracts are being signed, there's a lot of activity; you're not manipulating or at the mercy of skewing, so don't know how you could argue otherwise"
Which would be true of the price data from such as well!!!
You just aren't consistent in your application.
"and anytime you have volume increasing, you can reasonably expect pricing to stabilize"
This is also bad logic.
The national volume jump turned into further lower prices... mainly because much of it was distress selling.
But, generally, this claim is just not backed up by facts.
Come on guys, lighten up, it's friday....have a margarita.
All, enjoy the weekend...I'm out. {to drive past all the hampton for sale signs, actually would like to buy the stock of the company that makes "for sale signs"}
"As I said, you sway back and forth on this one depending on if it works for you or not."
I'm just not sure you're getting it - in the past we've always discussed median/average prices from the contract data. I've consistently said I don't like it. Noah was talking about volumes, which is quite different. Seeing lots of contracts signed, you can reasonably say "there's a lot of activity going on," but it's much more difficult to back up a statement like "prices are up/down" simply because a median/average is subject to skew (due to the poor quantity, location, unit mix, and source of data), whereas a simple tally really isn't. The only danger in a straight sum is that you're missing contracts here and there, but if you're seeing 2,000 contracts signed, there's no denying that there's activity! I hope that was clear enough. I don't know what you think I'm "rationalizing." I've been quite consistent in all of this.
"But, generally, this claim is just not backed up by facts."
I'm not sure that's true - it's pretty simple supply and demand economics. If prices have lowered to a point where people are buying a healthy amount of product, why would sellers lower prices even more? I don't know if that's what'll happen, but I think it's totally fair to say that we may be stabilizing.
"I'm not sure that's true - it's pretty simple supply and demand economics. If prices have lowered to a point where people are buying a healthy amount of product, why would sellers lower prices even more?"
Are you familiar with what a "Dutch Auction" is?