Post labor day -- predict what happens

Inventory will decrease as sideline buyers fear missing a bottom.
Many of those that took their listings off the market will now have renters and will not be listing. Those needing to sell will list.
Listing prices will hold flat compared to Q2 09.
The bulls and bears will remain sequestered from each other and any accidental progeny will be ceremoniously sacrificed at the next NAR conference in Las Vegas.

ussually market in sept is bad.this year I beleive it will be worse
ut will keep up and down for the rest of the quarter.
housing will continue the same stable but banks need to workout the
obama's plan and banks should make new programs for the housing sector
otherwise the housing sector will not workout.

Inventory will increase because a lot of eager buyers already bought.
Many of the owners will put the houses back in the market because they were unable to rent as the rental inventory is up, or because the rent doesn't cover the mortgage, because rent prices are down.
Those fearing a double dip in the stock market will fear the downturn and list their properties.
Listing prices will decrease slightly. I believe 85% of the properties for sale had price cuts during July.
Bulls and bears will continue getting in each others nerves. If the survival of the species depends on their progeny, we are fried. Well, unless something happens in the next SE meeting after a few glasses of wine...

It seems that inventory has already come way down -- sellers who didn't need to sell yanked their listings.

I think this trend is bound to continue through the rest of the year, because it is driven by sellers not wanting to mark down their prices from the peak, and hoping for a rebound.

I think there might be a dramatic impact on rents pretty soon. We all know that rents are dropping some, but just lately I hear about big big drops: prime Brownstone Brooklyn 1-beds dropping by $500 to $800 per month over a year ago.

I don't know firsthand if these are true, but I now hear it from old-timers who live in those nabes.

With that much downward pressure on rents, sellers will soon be locked out. Who will buy and incur a big monthly carry when they can rent for so much less?

Only distressed sellers will put their listings out, and those few deals will close at big big discounts to peak. The deflation process will take years to fully play out.

mimi
Bulls and bears will continue getting in each others nerves.

Hi mimi, I'm getting on your nerve. Am I a bull or a bear? I know I'm not a pig or a shrimp? Are you a bull or a bear or a pig or a shrimp?

this is a fun thing to do on a rainy tuesday afternoon. start pulling up some buildings. look at the listing histories. amazing how so many buildings have scads of inactive apartments that have been on the market once, twice, even three times over the last year or so and never sold.

then, for fun, pull up a couple of really prestigous buildings. some of them had one or fewer listings prior to 2008, and then 3 or more, often with no sales.

OTNYC, the bellagio?

also, some surprises on the other side. chelsea stratus being one.

I think by mid september, landlords, sellers and developers realize that the saga continues and prices go lower. someones gonna break ranks soon and then itll all be over

here is my prediction, worth about as much as all of these wordy and innacurate pontifications: aparments will continue to be bought and sold and rented, just like before labor day. brokerage firms will continue to drive this business, as always.

aboutready, I admire your good old fashioned toughness some times. If only it didn't always come with a "piss off" or a "fuck off" or any of the other nasty curses you like to throw around like an 8 year old will do with water balloons. But you stick to your word. You said you were ignoring me and you haven't responded to anything in several days now. Much better than that weakling little doggie friend of yours (not weak in the physical sense, he can squat 585lbs, but rather in the moral sense). Seriously, I admire someone who sticks to her word, and I'm sure your husband does too, like when you told us all on this public forum he hadn't paid his taxes for a couple years before you married him and you said to him ... well, I don't want to get in too deep here, after all, the bottom of the ocean is for nasty creatures like shrimp. Anyway, enjoy the evening.

stop....stop .... stop...

what is the point of this?

your contribution is to trash people who are honestly try to help others?

stop.

oolumbiacounty: I've read plenty of nasty posts from you in the past. Aren't you the pot calling the kettle black? And aboutready has been plenty nasty towards others too in other posts.

My prediction: It will be a busy fall buying season with inventory dropping. I already see increased sales activity and it's not even post-labor day.

Incidentally, earlier this spring, I also predicted a busy summer and decrease in inventory if you might recall while others including aboutready, rhino, macro_m and urbandigs ridiculed my predictions.

Care to do the same this time?

OTNYC, at the Bellagio? Dante would have adored the place.

qtip, absurd. i've always said i thought there'd be a decrease in inventory. i've actually said i was surprised it hadn't fallen further. and both UD and I are strong believers of market cycles. prices go down, volume absent a depression goes up. let's talk prices, shall we?

I will be able to trade an old guitar and a pair of socks for an UES studio!

Inventory to drop slightly over the next 4-8 weeks.
Demand picks up just a bit from August.

Prices to remain flat until Q1 & Q2 of 2010. We're going to get a nice surge in demand and price with all those record bonuses from Goldman, JPMorgan, etc.

"oolumbiacounty: I've read plenty of nasty posts from you in the past. Aren't you the pot calling the kettle black? And aboutready has been plenty nasty towards others too in other posts."

I concurrrrrrrrr.....

Inventories will skyrocket in the next 6-12 months as developers will have no choice but to lower prices at the insistance of the banks who actually hold the debt. The shadow inventory that is being held back will be released on the market like a tidal wave as banks take over the operations from many developers. NYC will be used to get cash back in a hurry as commercial real estate tanks worldwide. This in turn will also flood the rental market causing it to collapse another 30% during same time period. There are about 20K units (10k+) in Manhattan alone that are currently not on the market. Sorry, its just beginning in NYC.

"Inventories will skyrocket in the next 6-12 months as developers will have no choice but to lower prices at the insistance of the banks who actually hold the debt. The shadow inventory that is being held back will be released on the market like a tidal wave as banks take over the operations from many developers. NYC will be used to get cash back in a hurry as commercial real estate tanks worldwide. This in turn will also flood the rental market causing it to collapse another 30% during same time period. There are about 20K units (10k+) in Manhattan alone that are currently not on the market. Sorry, its just beginning in NYC."

Did you copy and paste this from the Spring? You were dead wrong before and you will be dead wrong again.

Inventory goes lower as those who don't have to sell pull their listings. Prices go lower as those who have to sell get more desperate/financially stressed and finally lower their prices. With 6,000 units listed by people who "have to sell," plenty of shadow inventory from developers who will eventually be forced to make a move by their lenders (either fire sale or rental), and an increase of foreclosures, prices can only go lower.

ericho - agreed on your demand forecasts. But my impression from intensive UES shopping between May and August is that latent sellers will enter the market after Labor Day. So uptick in supply too. (Hope I'm wrong, as I should be going into contract shortly . . .)

"With 6,000 units listed by people who "have to sell," plenty of shadow inventory from developers who will eventually be forced to make a move by their lenders (either fire sale or rental), and an increase of foreclosures, prices can only go lower."

Plenty of 'shadow' demands too with record bonuses and big salary increases on Wall Street by year end.

prices will be DOWN, DOWN, DOWN

ericho, i kinda forgot about those record bonuses being paid at year end. Will def. add to the rush to buy before january.

Real estate agents will save the market, by buying tons and tons of going-nowhere inventory, thus turning it around on a dime (which is all they have, so it's noble of them).

Real estate agents have magical powers exceeding those of Lucky Irish Carpenters ... but with the gift of blab instead.

The fate of shadow inventory will greatly depend on the banks.
As the shell shock of the last year is waning, we will see how much longer the banks will or can leave this issue on the shelf.
Remember, though all these apartments are residential, the construction and bridge loans for these apartment buildings to the developers are commercial.
Banks will have a lot of pressure as year end approaches to deal with red column in their statements.
All this doesn't happen in a month, but it has to happen.

RE Wall St bonuses. My feeling is that most of this bonus money is going to people who already own (hiring classes have been small recently). So if these Wall St guys buy a place it will be an upgrade which means they have a unit to sell - so no net absorption. No net absorption means these bonuses have zero influence on prices.

place your bets!

You don't learn to hold your own in the world by standing on guard, but by attacking, and getting well hammered yourself.
- George Bernard Shaw

truthskr10, there's a lot of cash being thrown around right this second. but the question is to whom, and will they buy. you're a young trader getting a signing bonus right now, medium intelligent, are you going to buy in 20 Pine or the Beav or 88 Greenwich, etc., or rent? It's a no-brainer. In just about every neighborhood. Totally cool now to snag a cheap rental, and if you're young and rich you don't care if you have to move, and if you have half a brain you will wonder how long these good times can roll again. that could be a big assumption, but the bankers i know are still not feeling very confident, longer term.

Most of the more established types already own.

Remember, the next set of numbers, due out early October, are for units that CLOSED July-September, not those that went into contract then, although there will be a smallish overlap.

well, there seems to be a consensus here so I'm ready to make some decisions. ;-)

buddhahat, funny.

steveF, you're now trying to get people to buy by encouraging them to binge drink?

ah, you beat me to it. well and truly might have been better, but who am i to criticize Shaw?

aboutready, thanks.

actually I'm new here and have spent some time reading the many threads, sussing the many personalities and trying to navigate between the lines of agenda and bitterness. Fun.

my wife and I need to move in November. Usual saga: new baby, currently rent a 1 bedroom in BPC, need more space, tired of the sterility of BPC, do OK financially but not in the market for $1MM plus (part of the that nebulous Manhattan middle-class) etc etc. Renting seems the way to go though I'm not a teeny-bopper (proof by use of that term) anymore and tired of renting. I *am* very curious what will happen this fall in the market since I've seen everything that is of interest that is out there.

aboutready
Agreed, if your the type not afraid to move around a bit, you have to rent now. And if the market is so attractive in 6 months that you have to leave your lease early, what's 30K to leave behind (based on a 5K monthly rental and if your landlord doesn't have a heart) when your saving a couple hundred K.
And since mentioned a few buildings, I know for a fact Beav is in some serious dire straits.

Units CLOSED, the number that matters, aye?

And BTW, your story about the out of state condo board on another thread gave me a flash to that Seinfeld condo board episode. So my guess is Florida. :)

joedavis
"will the bulls mate the bears?"

The bears will eat the bulls, pass the 'taters please.