AP: Fed findings indicate recession may be over

How did I know it was steveF?

stevejhx...what's up? where ya been?

That would be good news. The survey, however, had a less positive perspective on NYC real estate:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/14507-fed-beige-book-august-2009-nyc-real-estate

uh, whoops

(but, then again, would we really have expected stevef to have read all the way through?)

it may be over? call me when it is over.

I don't understand the correlation between the recession being over (and I hope it is) and New York City real estate. There was no recession when most of the country's real estate tanked in 06 and 07 so there was no correlation there. And while most of the country tanked, NYC still was going strong. Now NYC real estate in tanking and the recession is, by some accounts, over. I doubt there is a pattern there So what's the point of this post in regards to NYC real estate?

Sorry, I thought this was a real estate forum.

In defense of steveF, macro-economic factors can have probitive value: sometimes leading, sometimes lagging. An end to the recession is a good thing and would have an impact.

U-6 unemployment for August was 16.5%
Consmer Credit contracted by $21.6 billion in July
4-5 banks are closing every week and amazingly when they are seized, the examiners are finding the carrying value of many assets 30 to 40% too high
Over 5% of Prime residential mortgages are now either delinquent or in default (second quarter)
Bank loan charge-offs have crossed 2%
Cure rates on residential mortgages (delinquent borrowers bringing themselves current) is 6% when just two years ago it was 45%

A Tale of Two Steves. According to one, it was the best of times. According to the other, it was the worst of times.

Brilliant Buster, actually you don't have to change one original word;

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way

RS - That is about twice as many banks closing as the numbers show. I believe it is 87 for 35 weeks = 2.7/week. It's not great, but it's not 4-5/week.

A Tale of Two Steves. According to one, it was the best of times. According to the other, it was the worst of times.

good one buster, pretty accurate.

You're right, buster: BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!

"A Tale of Two Steves. According to one, it was the best of times. According to the other, it was the worst of times."

Given that the numbers now show that it is the worst recession since the 30s, seems pretty clear cut which Steve is the idiot... (well, clear cut to everyone but SteveF, I guess).

truthskr, i almost posted that quote the other day on the fear quote thread.

this current GDP decline may reverse. but for how long? and what incline, if any, can we expect?

so buy now, because stevef would really like the value of his real estate investments to increase.

waverly, i think the bank failure rate, if you were to look at it graphically, would show a steady escalation and an average that is also on the upward swing. the 35 week average and the 12 week average would look quite different, i'd think.

With banks unable to lend and a weak consumer. The decline will continue. What we're seeing is a reaction to companies letting their inventories drop too much and a variation of "stuffing the channels" from government redistribution of wealth vis-a-vis cash for clunkers,first-time-home-buyer credit & cash for stove.

Maybe instead of trying to prevent the next great depression we should read up on the crash of 1908...

"so buy now, because stevef would really like the value of his real estate investments to increase."

lol

wow, crickets from SteveF.

Not surprised....