TREGNY - Manhattan "will again see a cold winter for rentals."

Tell that to the landlords, who think it's a smarter idea to hold inventory from the market than to lower rents.

"Tell that to the landlords, who think it's a smarter idea to hold inventory from the market than to lower rents."

Rock = Each empty month is costing 8% of income on the year
Hard Place = Depreciated value of property to finance against for lower rent roll.

Considering that lots of landlords have zero equity on their properties now, what do they care of the unit is rented out or not. Just stop paying the mortgage.

Archstone is the worst offender.

"Archstone is the worst offender." What? They own free market properties. They can decide what rent to ask and whether to let a unit stay empty if they can't find a tenant at that rent. You may disagree with how they run their business, but here is no offense here.

If I walk into a store and offer $100 for an item that is priced at $150 and the store manager declines to sell the item at my price, should I be offended?

one thing to consider: if there aren't enough new tenants to fill all the vacancies PERIOD (note the IF), the all that having a price chopping war by holders of majors block of vacant units will do is cause a major market crash. It's POSSIBLE that in the end, they would lose more money by crashing the market for units which they have already occupied than by carrying a certain percentage of units vacant. Now, you may say that this would mean all the landlords are colluding, but I say no, it's just a case where a bunch of like minded people doing something seemingly stupid unintentionally acts in a way to benefit all of them.

Actually, sls, Archstone is not "free market": they are 80/20 market-rent stabilized buildings bought and built with tax credits.

Prices will sink over the winter. Much like New Dev, this can't continue forever.

I stand corrected - on that basis your original comment was only 80% ridiculous.

I'm not sure what the people saying prices haven't fallen are talking about. I'm in the market actively now, and I can most certainly tell you that when you get down to it, prices are 20-30% off from last year pre-Lehman in the market segment I'm looking at. I'm not sure what the future holds, but that's a pretty hefty drop in my book.

Steve, you're up Nov 30, right? Where's your landlord at now?

My landlord is sitting with 13 empty apartments, 3 in my line that are identical that were "rented," including mine!

Which means they'll come back on the market shortly, at a lower price.

Oh crap, that's a lot. Thankfully summer's just around the corner...

Where are they in terms of price? Still asking flat relative to a year or two ago, or come down some?

Flat to 5% lower - nothing realistic.

Like a heroin addict: will miss that rush of money.

I said it in another thread and ill say it here; there is a MAJOR disconnect. I just cannot comprehend how sitting with empty inventory is better than selling (renting) at a discount. Craberry, if they are not going to pay the mortgage anyways doesnt it make sense to try and recognize at least some income rather than none?

In addition to the professional landlords we have all the "amateur" ones who bought in new developments and are trying to cover their carrying costs. Im sure when they bought their 1 bedroom for 1.2mil last year the brokers told them they could rent easily for 6k/month. When are they going to realize that ain't happening anymore?

Is there a way to calculate what rents "should" be based upon the latest sales and inventory data?

steve how many units are in the building? What do you mean by that were "rented"??

I have no idea how many units are in the building. What I mean by "rented" is they do what lots of other companies are doing now: so you don't know how many apartments they have available, they'll list them for a week, take them down, and re-list them a week later, often for a lower price. My apartment was there, then gone.