Employers Begin Rehiring the Laid Off:

"Jobless Claims Of 462K Are Worse Than Expected"

"Basically a mixed picture on the jobless claims front.

Initial claims fell slightly to 462,000 from last week but are worse than the 456,000 that were expected.

Continuing claims ticked up higher to over 4.55 million.

Stocks are dipping on the news."

http://www.businessinsider.com/jobless-claims-of-462k-are-worse-than-expected-2010-3

shhhhh... don't tell ericho.

"Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to 442,000"

"Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in six weeks as the rebound in the U.S. economy encourages companies to make fewer cuts in payrolls.

First-time jobless applications declined 14,000 in the week ended March 20 to 442,000, lower than anticipated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance decreased, and those getting extended benefits also fell."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRjQPuqaM_0U&pos=2

poor, poor stevef. is he still posting on urbandigs?

"Jobless rate in NYC dips, just a bit, to 10.2%"

"The city's unemployment rate dropped to 10.2% in February from 10.4% in January, at least partially due to more people giving up the search for work."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100325/FREE/100329880/1072

"Jobs Were Supposed To Grow.. But ADP's Employment Report Shows A Shock Drop"

"ADP's employment report came out showing just a 23,000 decline in private employment during March, which looks like a substantial miss vs. the positive 35,000 gain expected by consensus"

http://www.businessinsider.com/adp-employment-report-shows-job-losses-worse-than-expected-2010-3

Ruh roh....

March 2010

"March Jobs Report Weaker Than Expected, Unemployment Still At 9.7%"

"Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment
rate held at 9.7 percent( )"

"Analysts were looking for something closer to 190,000, so this is a disappointment.

The 48K census jobs were below expectations (a result of slow hiring).

The unemployment rate stands at 9.7%.

U6 -- so called real unemployment -- ticked up to 16.9%.

January and February were both revised higher.

Workforce participation (people looking for jobs) also grew."

http://www.businessinsider.com/march-jobs-report-2010-4

Nobody cares.... good times are back.

"Jobless claims rise 18,000 in latest week"

"The number of people applying for unemployment benefits rose 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 460,000 in the week ended April 3 ( ). Economists ( ) expected a result of 442,000. The four-week average ( ) rose 2,250 to 450,250.

"Altogether, 11.1 million people were collecting some type of unemployment benefits in the week ended March 20, down about 373,000 from the prior week."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-rise-18000-in-latest-week-2010-04-08

And this gem: "A Labor Department official said interpretation of the data around this time period is clouded by events such as Easter that make it difficult to properly adjust for seasonal factors" - first snow storms, and now Easter... priceless. :)

we'll go another 6 months with an excuse for every unemployed person.

Government will start putting out a list...

"Ed Jones of South Bend, Indiana had a garage sale and was too busy to look for work".
"Sheila Parks of Bethesda, MD, thought the weather was beautiful so she decided to spend all day in teh park".

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/13/nyregion/13vincent.html?ref=nyregion

3,500 at St. Vincent’s Get Termination Notices

St. Vincent’s Hospital handed out termination notices on Monday to all 3,500 of its employees, further sealing the fate of New York City’s last Catholic general hospital.

*****************************

3500 (!) people out of work... That's a lot of high-paying jobs that just evaporated.

"China's Youth Meet Microsoft
KYE Factory in China Produces for Microsoft and other U.S. Companies
"We are like prisoners... We do not have a life, only work."
-Teenaged Microsoft Worker"

http://www.nlcnet.org/reports?id=0034

"Since the recession began in December 2007, U.S. manufacturing jobs have plummeted from 13,726,000 to just 11,550,000 in February 2010, a decline of 2,171,000, or 15.8 percent, in manufacturing jobs.

In the last ten years, U.S. manufacturing jobs fell from 17,292,000 in January 2000 to 11,554,000 in January 2010, for a loss of 5,738,000 -33.2 percent-of manufacturing jobs."

Weekly - week ending April 10.

"Jobless Claims Disappoint Again, Jump To 484,000"

"Analysts were looking for about 458,000, so this is obviously a disappointment.
We're still just not seeing the kind of steady decrease in initial claims we're looking for.
This is two misses in a row."

http://www.businessinsider.com/jobless-claims-april-15-2010-4

"NYC's jobs picture is suddenly sunnier."

"City's employers, led by construction firms, added 14,400 jobs in March as an economic recovery appears to be taking hold."

"The unemployment rate dipped to 10% from 10.2%, and the year-over-year jobs picture is showing significant improvement."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100415/FREE/100419906

"The one bit of bad news was that the securities industry was just about the only sector that exhibited weakness in March, shedding 700 jobs. The losses in securities may be indicative of continued consolidation of some of the big firms, or they could just be severance packages expiring, Ms. Denhem said."

In other words, lots of new (seasonal, low-paying) construction jobs were added but lots of (high-paying) finance jobs were shed. Yeah, I'm sure there are thousands of new carpenters looking to buy all those $1 million 1BR condos in Manhattan!

poor, poor steveF

"290,000 New Jobs Created In April, But Unemployment Rate Jumps To 9.9%"

"Federal government employment was up in April, reflecting the hiring of 66,000 temporary workers for the decennial census."

"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised from -14,000
to +39,000, and the change for March was revised from 162,000 to 230,000."

http://www.businessinsider.com/april-jobs-report-2010-5

"The "Real" Unemployment Rate Jumps To 17.1%"

The BLS's U-6 number, which is sometimes called the "real" unemployment rate, because it takes into discouraged workers who aren't looking for work ticked up in April from 16.9% to 17.1%."

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-unemployment-rate-jumps-to-171-2010-5

Thing is, how can the total including discouraged go up if total jobs went up?

I'm with you on the undercounting, and the "regular" rate can go up, but how can that "total" number go up if there are more jobs this month?

SWE, yet one more thing you have to look up.

And in Spain, the "headline" unemployment rate of 20% is calculated the same way as our "real" unemployment rate. There's not that much of a difference between the two countries.

the B/D adjustment was +188k. anyone else have difficulty envisioning new small companies employing a net positive 188,000 employees?

swe, the U6 also includes employees working part time for economic reasons. i think business insider's reporting was off.

the B/D adjustment was +188k. anyone else have difficulty envisioning new small companies employing a net positive 188,000 employees?

Actually, I don't. I have first hand experience with this as much of my client base is small companies, several of them new, and they are indeed expanding. There is a lot of new company formation going on as talented people with capital have been let go or see little future remaining in places where there is no growth (or shrinkage). Obviously this is purely anecdotal and a small sample size, but I am not surprised to see the macro statistics reflect this trend.

Actually, hiring is up in the media space. Folks cut fairly bare, online spending is up again, and folks are building their teams back up.

I can't talk for all the other spaces, but there are definitely some compaies around here that would not surprise me if they added 5-10% staff in the next few months.

> i think business insider's reporting was off.

Thats what I was thinking.

> SWE, yet one more thing you have to look up.

Steve, not looking things up and continuing to be wrong is called... ignorance. You enjoy yours.

Many small businesses (under 200 people) I have direct knowledge of are currently operating with staff levels of roughly 50% what they were at the peak. A 10% rise in employment levels over the past few months has or is happening for sure but there is still a long way to go before things are "back to normal". A long, long way to go. The same math that applies to equity and other market draw-downs also applies here - A 50% cut in staff takes a 100% increase in staff to get back to previous levels.

"Mayor plans 11,000 job cuts to fill budget hole."

"Mayor Michael Bloomberg's axe to fall mainly on city's teachers, who could see 6,400 jobs lost as part of his $63 billion proposal."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100506/FREE/100509896

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/small-business-still-no-soup-for-you/

You guys see the news on the state furloughs.

The legislature agreed to send everyone home a day a week to save $30 mil (except for essentials).

The unions are pissed off... of course, its necessary because they needed raises this year.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-10/n-y-lawmakers-pass-job-furloughs-for-100-000-in-emergency-bill.html

"Initial Jobless Claims Still Way Too High At 444K"

"This isn't HORRIBLE, obviously, but what we're not seeing is any kind of surprise improvement. We're just getting an elevated number week after weak."

"The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 1 were in New York (+4,021), Kentucky (+1,015), Pennsylvania (+773), Illinois (+611), and Tennessee (+609), while the largest decreases were in California (-18,546), Massachusetts (-3,628), Indiana (-3,242), Michigan (-1,748), and Florida
(-1,291)."

http://www.businessinsider.com/jobless-claims-may-13-2010-5

Bummer...

"Initial Jobless Claims Of 471,000 Are Worse Than Expected, S&P Futures Down 2%"

"Analysts expected initial claims of 439,000, so this is worse than expected."

"The market could have used some good news. It didn't get it.
This is the highest jump in three months."

http://www.businessinsider.com/weekly-jobless-claims-may-20-2010-5

ROTFL.

Wow, thanks for pulling out this funny one.

Go SteveF!

Mixed news on New York State / City jobs

NYS Added 31,500 Private Sector Jobs in April.
NYS Unemployment Rate Fell to 8.4% in April, Lowest Since May 2009.

New York State’s economy added 31,500 private sector jobs (+0.4%) on a seasonally adjusted basis in April 2010, the State Labor Department reported today (May 20th). This was the state’s fourth straight monthly jobs increase.

New York State’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 8.6% in March to 8.4% in April 2010. This was the state’s lowest unemployment rate since May 2009. The number of unemployed New Yorkers dropped from 831,500 in March to 817,600 in April 2010

New York City’s rate decreased from 10.0% in March to 9.8% in April 2010.

Since April 2009, the number of nonfarm jobs (private and public sectors) in New York State decreased by 52,000, or 0.6%. The number of private sector jobs in the state decreased by 23,000, or 0.3%, over the last year.

From April '09 to April '10:

Sectors With Job Gains:
Educational & Health Services +37,100
Leisure & Hospitality +14,600
Other Services +2,500
Natural Resources and Mining +200

Government -29,000
Manufacturing -24,700
Construction -16,800
Financial Activities -16,400
Trade, Transportation & Utilities -10,000
Professional & Business Services -4,900
Information -4,600

So, the rate dropped, but there are less jobs to be had. We lost 16,400 Financial jobs which is a biggie.

home nursing aids and hotel maids.

i wonder how long the gains in the tourism and hospitality industry will hold if the dollar keeps up this rambunctious behavior.

SteveF=Spunky=Dumbest Person on the planet. I'm glad I know who that person is.

"80% of NYC private-sector workforce hit by wage cuts"

"Despite lower-than-forecast jobs losses, the Great Recession hit a wide swath of the city's employment base."

"Much attention has been focused on the hit the city's economy has taken from plunging Wall Street bonuses. Securities industry compensation declined by $22 billion, or 30%, from 2008 to 2009, ( ) other financial and insurance sector compensation fell by $3 billion, or 16.5%.

But the budget office said today that salaries for workers outside the securities industry took a major dive, too. Real wages dropped an average 4.8% in 2009.

Across the board, total compensation fell by $31.7 billion, or 10.4%, with more than two-thirds of the decline attributable to the securities industry."

"Job growth is rising but is unlikely to keep pace with new entrants into the market, leaving the overall unemployment rate to hover around 10%. More jobs mean more personal income taxes for the city, but wage growth remains sluggish."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100521/FREE/100529955

By all means, landlords should raise rents and sellers should raise asking prices. Come on, yea brokers: do your jobs and hype, hype, hype, spin, spin, spin!

> SteveF=Spunky=Dumbest Person on the planet. I'm glad I know who that person is.

hee, hee

"Rise in desk jobs bodes well for NYC landlords"

"A gain of 6,500 office-based jobs in April brings the total added since year began to 14,800 in the city; rise seen as helping to keep vacancy rates relatively stable."

"All told, the total number of jobs in the financial, professional business services and media sectors reached 1.16 million in April, an increase of 6,500 jobs from March. This marks the largest one-month increase since October 2007, when the sector saw an increase of 7,500 jobs. "

"At the end of April, the Manhattan office vacancy rate totaled 11.5%, up slightly from 10.6% a year ago but down from 11.6% at the end of March. "

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100526/REAL_ESTATE/100529879

"HUGE MISS: May Private Sector Hiring Is Non-Existent, Stocks Tanking"

"The market is tanking, as the new job creation came in at just 430K, with only 40k or so jobs created in the private sector."

"The unemployment rate fell a little to 9.7%, but that's not what anyone's concerned about right now.

U-6, the so-called "real" unemployment rate, also fell a bit to 16.6%."

http://www.businessinsider.com/may-jobs-report-2010-6

I just posted in the wrong place, sorry.

Here was my post

Personally I wonder where the unemployed hide. Maybe it is because it is New York City and the unemployed can go to cheaper places to live. Maybe it is because the unemployed say they are artists. Maybe just because going to work, all of the other people work. Or I go to the store and everyone there is employed, plus the employees. Generally seems as if the unemployed are hidden and until we see people on the streets or more difficult stories in the news, we will continue to ignore the problems.

"Wall Street Hiring Jumps Most Since 2008 as Guarantees Return"

"In New York, 6,800 financial-industry positions were added from the end of February through May, the largest three-month increase since 2008"

"New York City had 429,000 financial jobs as of May 31, up from 422,200 in February, according to the Department of Labor data. That%u2019s still down from the peak of 473,800 in August 2007, the data show. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-27/wall-street-hiring-increases-most-since-2008-as-guaranteed-bonuses-return.html

Good times, bubbles ahead. :)

"since 2008". read that again. pretty funny.

"Personally I wonder where the unemployed hide. Maybe it is because it is New York City and the unemployed can go to cheaper places to live. Maybe it is because the unemployed say they are artists. Maybe just because going to work, all of the other people work. Or I go to the store and everyone there is employed, plus the employees. Generally seems as if the unemployed are hidden and until we see people on the streets or more difficult stories in the news, we will continue to ignore the problems"

I heard something like 40% of blacks in NYC are unemployed.

"ADP Jobs Report WAY Below Expectations"

"Yet another huge disappointment for markets to digest -- ADP's June employment report showed just 13,000 new jobs were added from May to June on a seasonally-adjusted basis, vs. 61,000 expected. That's clearly a huge miss."

http://www.businessinsider.com/adp-employment-report-2010-6

BLS report on Friday.

"Weekly Claims Post Rise in Sign of More Job Weakness"

"The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance rose unexpectedly last week, a report showed on Thursday, heightening fears the labor market recovery was stalling."

"The four-week moving average of new claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, rose 3,250 to 466,500—the highest level since early March."

472,000 vs 452,000

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38034750

Stagnation sets in.

"June Job Losses at 125,000, But Jobless Rate Falls to 9.5%"

"() private hiring grew less than expected ()"

"However the unemployment rate fell to 9.5 percent, the lowest level since July, as people left the labor force."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38054214

"NY State’s Unemployment Rate Dropped to 8.2% in June, Lowest Since April ’09"

New York State Lost 8,500 Private Sector Jobs in June 2010

New York City: | June 2010: 9.5% | May 2010: 9.6% | June 2009: 9.6% |

Sectors With Job Gains:
Educational & Health Services +23,900
Leisure & Hospitality +23,000
Other Services +7,200
Government +4,700

Sectors With Job Losses:
Trade, Transportation & Utilities -15,500
Construction -14,500
Manufacturing -13,900
Financial Activities -12,700
Information -4,800
Professional & Business Services -1,700

http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/PressReleases/pruistat.pdf

We're stuck. Not that anyone cares.

pulaski, people care. these are helpful updates.

some folks just don't like what the data says...

Here's one that SteveF will like.... ;)

"Plenty of NYC jobs await tech workers"

"Information-technology career website reports that Big Apple leads other major metro areas, with 8,200 employment openings in July."

"While the latest unemployment numbers for New York City still show a gloomy prospect for many would-be workers, recent reports from Dice.com and Pace University show just the opposite for those in the information technology industry—employers can’t seem to fill competitive high-tech positions."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100723/SMALLBIZ/100729914

So how much of a home can an IT worker afford? Single, earning $100k? Oh, the possibilities...

"The Great Decoupling Of Corporate Profits From Jobs"

"Profits that plummeted in the recession have bounced back. Big businesses have recovered almost 90 percent of what they lost."

"The reality is this: Big American companies may never rehire large numbers of workers. And they won’t even begin to think about hiring until they know American consumers will buy their products. The problem is, American consumers won’t start buying against until they know they have reliable paychecks."

http://www.businessinsider.com/great-decoupling-of-corporate-profits-from-jobs-2010-7

"Jobless Picture Getting Worse, As Initial Claims Jump To 479,000"

http://www.businessinsider.com/weekly-jobless-claim-august-5-2010-8

"Jobs Picture Worsens With 131,000 Losses; 9.5% Rate"

"U.S. employment fell for a second straight month in July as more temporary census jobs ended while private hiring rose less than expected, pointing to an anemic economic recovery.

Non-farm payrolls fell 131,000 the Labor Department said on Friday as temporary jobs to conduct the decennial census dropped by 143,000.

Private employment, considered a better gauge of labor market health, rose 71,000 after increasing 31,000 in June. In addition, the government revised payrolls for May and June to show 97,000 fewer jobs than previously reported."

"The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5 percent in July for a second straight month, just below market expectations for a rise to 9.6 percent. The steady jobless rate largely reflected a drop in the labor force as discouraged workers gave up the search for jobs."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38590746

Emplyers will not be hiring so long as the cost of hiring keeps increasing in the face of an otherwise deflationary environment. Revenues are not necessarily improving. But the cost of an employee, factoring in the taxes and factoring in costs like healthcare, are rising. So there will not be greater employment, unless the government wants to hire which of course is the wrong prescription as well.

"Personal income declined in 2009 in most of the nation's metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), according to estimates released today (August 9, 2010) by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis."

"Large MSAs. Among the 52 MSAs with a population of one million or more, only three had an increase in both net earnings and personal income in 2009 (Washington, D.C.; San Antonio, Texas; and Virginia Beach, Virginia). The biggest gains in compensation in these three MSAs were in the federal government (civilian and military combined). Private sector compensation declined in these three MSAs."

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/mpi/mpi_newsrelease.htm

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA income is down 4.1% from 2008.

"Jobless Situation Gets Worse, As Initial Claims Jump To 484,000"

"We're no longer stalling. We're deteriorating."

http://www.businessinsider.com/august-12-initial-claims-2010-8

Where's steveF when you need him?

Housing Starts and Unemployment Rate

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/housing-starts-and-unemployment-rate.html

"Initial Jobless Claims SURGE To 500K"

"The number: Initial jobless claims have surged to 500K. This is worse than expected, and establishes a clear negative trend. Several weeks ago, this number had seemed to stall out around 450K, but now that's just a memory, as the direction is definitely upward."

http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-august-19-2010-8

Pretty blasted grim.

Why hire an unemployed American when there's an immigrant willing to work cheap or the job can be outsourced?

That's why we have unions, right?

Thats why there are unions, right?

That's why there are unions, right?

The story is no longer about hiring illegals or about outsourcing. It is about lack of demand. In other words, there aren't jobs being created.

It just isn't possible in most jobs to hire an illegal. Most companies are reporting their earnings and hence have to pay "on the books". In fact, over the last 20 years as people have begun using credit/debit cards for more and more small transactions it has reduced the amount of tax in the system. If you don't have cash you can't pay off the books.

And if a legitimate business inadvertantly hires an illegal for a legitimate job, that job still shows up in government #'s as a created job.

As to outsourcing... there isn't a need to outsource when your demand doesn't exceed the capacity you already have.

There are no nefarious goings on here. It is a matter that the jobs just aren't there.

>As to outsourcing... there isn't a need to outsource when your demand doesn't exceed the capacity you already have.

Ah what?

Really the question is about increasing capacity either through hiring in US or outsourcing. The later is still favorable way in many companies.

"It just isn't possible in most jobs to hire an illegal."

Most respectable jobs (like not working as a farm laborer or in the kitchen at a restaurant) hire only legal people But there are more than two million new LEGAL immigrants coming here every year, so there are plenty of legal immigrants to hire, which explains why so many Americans are unemployed.

If we could put a moratorium on all new immigration, legal and illegal, then we'd see the unemployment rate start to go down (but slowly because jobs can still be outsourced).

Those jobs you reference, are they jobs that earn tips?

"NYC's jobs recovery continues to outpace U.S."

"While national employment situation remains grim, city's jobless rate falls for the seventh straight month to 9.4%."

"The July unemployment rate dipped to 9.4% from 9.5% in June, according to a report released Thursday by the state Department of Labor. The state unemployment rate held steady at 8.2%, and the national jobless rate stands at 9.5%."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100819/FREE/100819761

And:

Change in Jobs by Sector,
July 2009 %u2013 July 2010

Sectors With Job Gains:
Leisure & Hospitality 27,400
Other Services 22,100
Educational & Health Services 20,400
Professional & Business Services 8,000
Natural Resources and Mining 100

Sectors With Job Losses:
Government -66,000
Trade, Transportation & Utilities -14,800
Construction -9,800
Manufacturing -8,600
Financial Activities -7,200
Information -3,500

http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/index.shtm

New York City specific:
"Job growth occurred in educational and health services ( 19,900), leisure and hospitality ( 13,000), other services ( 10,300), and professional and business services ( 2,300). Job losses were greatest in natural resources, mining and construction (-5,300), manufacturing (-2,200), information (-2,100), and financial activities (-1,400). Government employment fell over the year by 49,100 as the number of people hired by the Summer Youth Employment Programs dropped significantly from last year%u2019s stimulus package inflated levels."

http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/nyc/index.shtm

Good news, everyone! At .1% a month, we'll be back to full employment in no time!

lets see... much of gains come mostly from the ones we have to spend government gollars on (edu and health) and finance and construction and info and trade stuff, which can pay some taxes, further in the toilet.

Thats not a good sign.

"13 States That Just Got Slammed With Massive Layoffs"

"Number of mass layoff events, July 2010: 201

Initial claims for unemployment, July 2010: 23,920"

http://www.businessinsider.com/here-are-the-13-states-that-just-got-slammed-with-massive-layoffs-2010-8#2-new-york-12

"Weekly initial unemployment claims decline, 4-week average highest since Nov 2009" 473,000

"In the week ending Aug. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 473,000, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 504,000. The 4-week moving average was 486,750, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 483,500. "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_26.html

Weak.

"CHART OF THE DAY: Today's 'Good' Unemployment Data Masked A Huge Jump In Emergency Claims"

"The latest report described a 200,000 jump in people seeking emergency unemployment extensions ()"

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-claims-under-state-programs-2010-8

Weaker.

where is steveF anyway?

"Another Ugly Jobs Number: ADP Says The Private Sector SLASHED 10,000 Jobs In August"

"According to ADP, the private sector slashed a net 10,000 jobs in the month of august. Analysts were looking for the creation of 13,000 jobs, so not good."

"This is the first time in several months that ADP has reported net job losses."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/august-adp-report-2010-9#ixzz0yHl9OK1e

:(

http://www.businessinsider.com/august-adp-report-2010-9

"Weekly initial unemployment claims decline slightly" 472,000

"In the week ending Aug. 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 472,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 485,500, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average of 488,000. "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html

"Private Sector Adds 67,000 Jobs"

"U.S. Economy Lost 54,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Rises to 9.6%"

"Job losses continued to mount in the U.S. economy last month, though at a more modest pace than expected, putting further pressure on policy makers to take action to spur growth and employment.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 54,000 last month, matching the level of revised losses recorded the previous month, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday. The revision in July layoffs to 54,000 followed an original estimate of a 131,000 drop in payrolls."

"The report Friday showed that private sector hiring wasn't enough to offset cutbacks in job losses in the government, which continued to let go temporary workers hired for the 2010 census.

Private-sector companies added 67,000 jobs, following an upwardly revised 107,000 gain in July."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703946504575469331075476058.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

U6: up from 16.5% to 16.7% - http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Overall, better, but still horrid.

Enjoy your Labor Day weekend, watch out for Earl!

"Claims for last week were revised up from 472,000 to 478,000."

"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline" 451,000

"In the week ending Sept. 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 451,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 477,750, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week's revised average of 487,000." *

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_09.html

*"BofA noted this morning that 9 states reported delays in filing jobless claims because of labor day weekend ... so the actual was probably higher"

So let's see: last week's claims revised upward, this week's claims down but only because Government employees were on a long weekend and didn't report the numbers. Look for next week to be revised upwards.

Last week's 451,000 revised up to 453,000.

"Weekly initial unemployment claims decline slightly" 450,000

"This is the lowest level for weekly claims since early July, but it is still very high - the 4-week moving average has been moving sideways at an elevated level for about 10 months - and that suggests a weak job market."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_16.html

In other news, "Economic Bellwether FedEx Misses Earnings, Guides Lower, Laying Off 1700 Workers" and "U.S. Poverty Rate Rises to 14.3%" and "Wholesale Prices Rise on Energy"

Good times... :/

Sept 16

New York "State’s Unemployment Rate Ticks Up by 0.1% to 8.3%"

"New York State’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 8.2% in July 2010 to 8.3% in August 2010. The number of unemployed New York State residents grew from 796,000 in July to 801,400 in August 2010. The statewide labor force rose by 500 over this period.

“The recovery in New York State’s labor market slowed somewhat in August as we only added 2,500 private sector jobs over the month. In addition, our statewide unemployment rate increased from 8.2% to 8.3%, but remained well below the nation’s rate of 9.6% in August,” said Norman A. Steele, Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics."

Change in Jobs by Sector,
August 2009 - August 2010
Sectors with Job Gains:
Leisure & Hospitality +24,600
Educational & Health Services +18,000
Other Services +17,400
Professional & Business Services +12,300
Natural Resources & Mining +200

Sectors with Job Losses:
Government -65,800
Trade, Transportation & Utilities -8,800
Manufacturing -5,300
Financial Activities -4,400
Construction -3,700
Information -2,000

"New York City’s rate remained unchanged at 9.4% between July and August 2010."

http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/pressreleases/pruistat.pdf

"Financial Activities -4,400" uh oh...

"NYC freezes municipal hiring, layoffs become likely"

"Deputy Mayor for Operations Stephen Goldsmith says layoffs would help the city face next fiscal year's $3.3 billion budget gap and exploding retiree costs."

' “Unless some corrective action is taken soon, New York City runs the risk of becoming General Motors in the sense that we will be assuming a debt to retirees that is not sustainable,” he said.'

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100921/FREE/100929960

"Payrolls Decrease in 36 U.S. States, Led by Michigan"

"Payrolls dropped in 36 U.S. states in August, led by Michigan, indicating the labor market will take time to rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-21/payrolls-decrease-in-36-u-s-states-in-sign-labor-recovery-will-take-time.html

So, still dropping... :/

"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase" 465,000

"In the week ending Sept. 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 465,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 453,000. The 4-week moving average was 463,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 466,500."

"The 4-week moving average has been moving sideways at an elevated level for about 10 months - and that suggests a weak job market."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_23.html

"Temporary Employment Surges To A Pre-Crisis High"

"At a current index value of 98, U.S. staffing employment is 42% higher than the level reported for the first week of the current year and is 23% higher than the same weekly period in 2009."

"Hopefully this will translate into full-time work."

http://www.businessinsider.com/temporary-employment-has-now-made-a-full-recovery-2010-9

Hope springs eternal...

Last week's 465,000 revised up to 469,000.

"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease" 453,000

"The 4-week moving average has been moving sideways at an elevated level for about 10 months - and that suggests a weak job market."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_30.html

ouch. poor steveF.

"Latest unemployed: Stimulus-subsidized workers"

"Tens of thousands of low-income workers lost their jobs Thursday as a stimulus-subsidized employment program came to an end.

About a quarter of a million people in 37 states were placed in short-term jobs thanks to a $5 billion boost to the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities."
http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/30/news/economy/subsidized_jobs_program/index.htm?hpt=T2

---

"1,200 NASA workers to be laid off"

"More than 1,200 NASA workers will be laid off Friday, despite Congress passing a $19 billion budget for the space agency two days earlier. "
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/10/01/nasa.layoffs/index.html?hpt=T2

---

"Paramount to lay off 53 people; save $10 million"

"Viacom Inc.'s movie studio, Paramount Pictures, is laying off 53 people worldwide, most of whom are based in Los Angeles, in a move that will save about $10 million a year.

Chief Operating Officer Frederick Huntsberry and Vice Chairman Rob Moore informed staff of the move in an e-mail Thursday.

The layoffs come amid an industrywide decline in DVD sales and as Paramount has pared back the number of movies it releases every year."
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jBN6ESrtoXGj3Y87ooyWKzScje5QD9IIRPC00?docId=D9IIRPC00

---

"Without Action, Jobs Recovery to Take Until 2015: Study"

"The rate of employment in both emerging and developing countries has returned to growth. But more than 8 million new jobs are still needed to reverse the damage caused by the economic crisis"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39438191

---

Good times!

"Gasparino: Knight Capital Fires 8% Of Workforce"

"The Wall Street job massacre continues at Knight Capital, a capital markets firm in New Jersey."

"Knight CEO Thomas Joyce reverses course, was about to hire and now is firing approx. 8% of his staff amid weak trading volumes."

http://www.businessinsider.com/gasparino-knight-capital-fires-8-of-workforce-2010-10

"ADP Reports A Surprise DECLINE In Jobs"

"ADP reported a surprise decline in jobs for September. The company said that 39,000 jobs were lost, missing expectations for a 18,000 gain ( )"

http://www.businessinsider.com/adp-employment-report-reports-a-surprise-decline-in-jobs-2010-10

"Cancelled MTA contracts result in 850 layoffs"

"The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is terminating two contracts with companies that transport disabled New Yorkers."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20101006/SMALLBIZ/101009915

"NY's 'job outmigration' ranked as worst in U.S."

"A long-term review of hundreds of thousands of business startups, closures and corporate moves in and out of state shows almost no real growth in NY's total job base from 1993 to 2007"

"During that 15-year period, New York added 165,500 jobs, for a growth rate of 1.7%, according to the report by the conservative think tank, which draws on a newly-developed set of data generated from Dun & Bradstreet Information files.

New York gained 259,090 jobs from firms moving into the state while losing 407,558 jobs from relocations to other states, the report says, with many of the jobs moving to New Jersey and Connecticut. The state's net job-migration loss was the worst of any state."

"The bulk of the outmigration loss—89%, or 129,560 jobs—was in New York City."

"James Parrott, chief economist at the liberal Fiscal Policy Institute, questioned the accuracy of the data used. He said the paltry job growth detailed in the report contradicts state Department of Labor employment data. He says the DOL data show a net gain of 1,014,000 jobs, or 12.8%, over the 15-year period, much higher than the 1.7% shown in the report."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20101006/FREE/101009904

Whom do we believe? D&B or GOV? Do we care? Not really. Party on!

"September Jobs Report Very Weak, As Public Sector Slashes Employment Massively" Rate at 9.6%.

"Here's the key paragraph:

Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-95,000) in September, and the unem- ployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta- tistics reported today. Government employment declined (-159,000), reflec- ting both a drop in the number of temporary jobs for Census 2010 and job losses in local government. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+64,000)."

http://www.businessinsider.com/september-non-farm-payrolls-report-2010-10

-------

"The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) was at 9.472 million in September, up sharply from August.

This is a new record high, and is obviously bad news. "

"These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 17.1% in September from 16.7% in August. The high for U-6 was 17.4% in October 2009. Grim."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/employment-population-ratio-part-time.html

------

Blah, blah, blah. Who cares. No impact on NYC RE. Party on!

"New York State's Economy Lost 15,600 Private Sector Jobs in September"
"State's Unemployment Rate Remains Unchanged at 8.3%"
"New York City's rate dropped slightly, from 9.4% to 9.3% between August and September 2010. "

September 2009 – September 2010

Sectors With Job Gains:
Other Services +20,500
Educational & Health Services +20,000
Professional & Business Services +8,900
Leisure & Hospitality +6,000
Natural Resources & Mining +200

Sectors With Job Losses:
Government -33,000
Trade, Transportation & Utilities -7,400
Information -4,600
Construction -4,100
Financial Activities -4,000
Manufacturing -2,600

http://www.labor.ny.gov/PressReleases/2010/Oct21_2010.shtm

"Indiana Beefing Up Security At Unemployment Offices Ahead Of Holidays"

"The Indiana Department of Workforce Development is beefing up its security ahead of the holidays, when officials expect a seasonal surge in unemployment claims and extra stress for long-term jobless who might miss benefits because of Congress.

If Congress doesn't reauthorize extended unemployment insurance, which expires at the end of November, the National Employment Law Project estimates that two million people will prematurely miss checks by the end of December. "

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/01/indiana-unemployment-offi_n_776971.html

Nothing to see here, move along, move along...

October

"Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in October, and the
unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent"

Highlights:

Temporary help services: +35,000.
Computer systems design and related services: +8,000.
Health care: +24,000.
Retail trade: +28,000 (automobile dealers +6,000 and electronics and appliance stores
+5,000)
Leisure and hospitality, arts, entertainment, and recreation: -26,000.
Food services and drinking places employment: +24,000.
Mining: +8,000.
Manufacturing: -7,000.
Government: -14,000.
Temporary census workers: -5,000.

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---------------------

Pro analysis:

"Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks"

"The underlying details of the employment report were mixed. The positive included the 151,000 payroll jobs added, the upward revisions to August and September, a slight uptick in hours worked and average hourly earnings, and a slight decline in part time workers (and slight decline in U-6 unemployment).

The negatives include the declines in the employment-population ratio and the participation rate, the increase in workers unemployed for over 26 weeks, and the unemployment rate still flat at a very high level.

This report was a clear improvement from the previous four months, but this was still a fairly soft report."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/employment-population-ratio-part-time.html

-------------

Pulaski's Uber-bear analysis:

Temporary help services: +35,000 - why hire full time when temps work for less and no BS like health insurance is needed? Good for employer, bad for the nation.

Computer systems design and related services: +8,000 - someone's gotta make sure kids on Facebook and Twitter can find each other to get laid. Also, the more automated the systems, the less workers will be needed. Positive for tech industry, negative for those seeking employment.

Health care: +24,000 - Baby Boomers continue to need health care, the nation is getting older and sicker.

Retail trade: +28,000 (automobile dealers +6,000 and electronics and appliance stores
+5,000) - someone has got to sell all the crap made in China.

Leisure and hospitality, arts, entertainment, and recreation: -26,000 - who's got money for recreation? This shows the middle class is staying home and battening down the hutches.

Food services and drinking places employment: +24,000 - the only thing we have left to do is to get drunk. Minus.

Mining: +8,000 - resources are increasing in value, so we need more workers to get them out of the ground. Plus.

Manufacturing: -7,000 - minus.

Government: -14,000 - plus
Temporary census workers: -5,000 - plus

Overall weak, no matter what the President says.

After being unemployed for four months, I finally got a new job this week as... a temp! Well, technically a contractor. But my pay is way above what I last received as a salaried employee. Way above- like 50% more. No health insurance? Big fuggin' deal! What's an extra $600/month out-out-of-pocket when the increase in my take home pay has increased ten-fold that amount. I'm single, healthy, live alone and have no dependents. So why do I need perks like life insurance, flexible spending accounts and family leave? The downturn has been an eye opener indeed. For the first time in my life I feel like I can embrace the lifestyle of the perennial contractor, work half the year, and spend the other half of the year traveling and enjoying life. If you are in a profession where you can make good money on a consulting/contracting basis, this is the way to go. I only regret that I didn't start doing this sooner.

"Brooklyn leads the city in new jobs"

"Brooklyn gained 8,600 new jobs during the first quarter, according to a new report, far-outdistancing other city boroughs, thanks to a jump in low-paying home health care jobs."

"The other boroughs all shed jobs, with Manhattan employment declining by 1.7%, Staten Island by 1% and Queens by 0.3%. In the same period, the nation lost 2.1% of its jobs and New York state lost 1.1%. "

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20101109/FREE/101109858

When talking about the "laid off" would that include a hairy nude man living on west 67th street who last held a job in the mid-90s in a company that doesn't exist anymore? Because if it does, I'm thinking that the economy really has turned around!

"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 435,000"

"The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 10,000 to 446,500.

"This is the lowest level for the 4-week moving average since January of this year - an improvement over recent months, but still elevated - and still a sign of weakness in the job market."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_10.html

YES!! i am having fun. how much do you care about a toilet seat? i cared for about fifteen minutes, and told a story about it.

you have been able to create an on-line existence based on my toilet seat!! how grand for you!! or how throne-like for you!!

you don't have any concerns that you spend so much of your time thinking about the fact that i got the toilet seat that my lease allowed me from my landlord? you don't think that maybe there's something wrong with your stalking about talking about toilet seats for little to no reason? my landlord, broke though they might be, probably has 50-100 toilet seats in storage somewhere.

you need a better cause. soft and fuzzy animals being killed? i don't know. but my toilet seat is just a very stupid focal point.

"Wow -- Check Out How Blatantly Our Government Misled Us With The October Jobs Numbers!"

"The government changed the "seasonal adjustment" it made to the payroll numbers--and, in so doing, boosted the number of "jobs" created in October by 100,000."

http://www.businessinsider.com/wow-check-out-how-blatantly-our-government-misled-us-with-the-october-jobs-numbers-2010-11