Employers Begin Rehiring the Laid Off:

"6 Million Benefit Paying Jobs Vanish in One Year!"

"Analysis of weekly unemployment data and covered employees shows that 5,977,844 benefit paying jobs have been lost in the last year."

* Covered employment is back to 2004 levels.
* Close to 6 million benefits paying jobs have vanished in a year.
* Over 8 million benefits paying jobs have vanished since the 2008 peak.

"6 Million Benefits Paying Jobs Vanish and Unemployment Rate Drops!

In spite of losing nearly 6 million benefits paying jobs in the last year (and not gaining another 800,00 to a million more based on population growth minus retirees), the unemployment rate in October of 2009 was 10.1% and it is now supposedly a half-point lower at 9.6%.

Is this a crock or what?"

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/6-million-benefit-paying-jobs-vanish-in.html

It's "or what" - nobody gives a shit about the unemployed.

"New York City Will Cut Workforce by 10,000 to Narrow Budget Gap"

"New York City, facing a $3.3 billion deficit in next year’s budget, will cut its workforce by more than 10,000 over the next year-and-a-half, Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s budget office reported.

More than 6,200 workers will be fired, and the remaining cuts will be accomplished by attrition, the mayor’s office said today in a report. The city, which employs more than 300,000 people, will reduce the number of workers by 2,100 in the current fiscal year, which ends June 30, and by about 8,200 in fiscal 2012, the mayor’s office said. "

"Parking rates will increase from $2.50 an hour to $3 on most Manhattan streets with meters. The city will seek $12 million from the federal government to reimburse its security costs for the United Nations. Some firehouses may be closed at night to save $15 million, and the Fire Department will cut 100 administrative positions to save about $6 million or more a year, the budget office said.

Although the city’s unemployment rate dropped to 9.2 percent in October from 9.3 percent and job growth has outpaced the U.S. and state, tax revenue is about $4 billion below pre- recession levels, forcing the cutbacks, Bloomberg has said. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-18/new-york-city-will-cut-workforce-by-10-000-to-narrow-budget-gap.html

"Jobless benefits extension fails in House"

"Millions of jobless Americans could see unemployment benefits run out in coming weeks after an effort to extend them failed in the House of Representatives on Thursday."

"Nearly half of the 15 million unemployed people in the United States have been out of work for more than six months, the highest level of long-term unemployment since the government began keeping track in the 1940s."

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AH5JU20101118

The 1940s.....

"City unemployment drops to 9.2% in October"

"Widespread gains in private-sector jobs more than compensate for cuts in public payrolls, state labor department finds; city adds nearly 10,000 jobs for the month."

"Employment services added 2,600 jobs in October, a sign the city economy is “truly on an upswing,” said Barbara Byrne Denham, chief economist at Eastern Consolidated. That industry, which is dominated by temporary employees, tends to add jobs ahead of others as employers test the waters of economic recovery."

"The all-important securities industry added 1,700 jobs in October, bringing total employment on Wall Street to 161,100 jobs. The industry has made up for all but 700 of the jobs lost in 2010, but it is still 27,900 below the peak of January 2008, Ms. Denham said. A report earlier this week by state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli predicted the securities industry could lose another 7,000 jobs before sustained hiring picks up."

"October losses were concentrated in tourist-related sectors, which had previously shown strength. Arts and entertainment lost 2,300 jobs, hotels shed 700 positions and restaurants cut 400 jobs."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20101118/FREE/101119842/1072

"Uh-Oh: November Layoffs Surged To Highest Level Since March Thanks To Public Sector Slashing"

"() from today's Challenger, Gray & Christmas November report"
"The pace of downsizing surged to its highest level in eight months, as employers announced plans to reduce payrolls by 48,711 jobs in November, according to the report released Wednesday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

November job cuts were 28 percent higher than the 37,986 planned layoffs reported in October. It was the highest job-cut total since March, when employers announced plans to cut 67,611.

Despite the increase, job cuts this year are still well below last year’s levels. Last month’s total was 3.3 percent lower than the 50,349 job cuts announced in November 2009. Overall, employers announced 497,969 job cuts from January through November, a 60 percent decline from the 1,242,936 layoffs in the same period a year ago.

Leading the November job-cut surge was the government and non-profit sector, which announced 10,761 layoffs during the month. This marks the seventh time this year that the sector was the largest job cutter. Government and non-profit agencies have cut 138,979 jobs this year, 177 percent more than the second-ranked pharmaceutical industry, which has announced 50,168 job cuts to date."

http://www.businessinsider.com/challenger-gray-and-christmas-november-2010-12#ixzz16rz7Fzmd

"November ADP Report Comes In Blisteringly Strong With 93,000 Jobs Created"

"The number: This is well ahead of expectations, and nicely above last month, and October was revised up sharply. It would be shockin, now, to see a weak jobs report this Friday.

Small biz added 54K. The goods-producing sector added jobs for the first time in ages.

This doesn't necessarily cancel out the layoffs news from the Challenger report, which emphasized big layoffs at the public sector level."

http://www.businessinsider.com/november-adp-report-2010-12#ixzz16rzMsEuW"

Jobs good, stocks good. RE, not so good. Another happy day.

"Millions may lose jobless benefits as holidays loom"

"Nearly half of unemployed in U.S. have been out of work for more than six months"

"Extended unemployment benefits for nearly 2 million Americans begin to run out Wednesday, cutting off a steady stream of income and guaranteeing a dismal holiday season for people already struggling with bills they cannot pay.

Unless Congress changes its mind, benefits that had been extended up to 99 weeks will end this month."

"After losing her computer design job a year and a half ago, Reinman scraped by with her savings and a weekly $351 unemployment check. When her nest egg vanished in July, she started using her unemployment to pay off her mortgage and stopped paying her credit card bills. She recently informed a creditor she couldn't make payments on a loan because her benefits were ending.

"I'm more concerned about trying to hang onto my house than paying you," she told the creditor.

Ninety-nine weeks may seem like a long time to find a job. But even as the economy grows, jobs that vanished in the Great Recession have not returned. The private sector added about 159,000 jobs in October %u2014 half as many as needed to reduce the unemployment rate of 9.6 percent, which the Federal Reserve expects will hover around 9 percent for all of next year."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40447966/ns/politics-more_politics/

:(

"NOVEMBER JOBS REPORT COMES IN EXTREMELY WEAK WITH JUST 39K NEW JOBS"

"Disaster!

39,000 is way worse than expected.

50K private sector hiring is also way worse than expected.

Unemployment rate jumps to 9.8%."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/november-jobs-report-2010-12#ixzz173ev3Fum

http://www.businessinsider.com/november-jobs-report-2010-12

Poor steveF - stuck with his overpriced condo studios that he can't rent out for as much as it costs him to pay his mortgage & taxes & common charges.

"Here Are The The AWFUL Details Behind Today's Big Jobs Report Miss"

"
* BRIGHT SIGN: Total private industry jobs are still moving higher.
* Nonfarm payrolls barely move upward.
* the unemployment rate is now creeping up again
* Those unemployed for more than 15 weeks is now near 2010 highs.
* And those unemployed for more than 27 weeks is moving higher.
* The civilian employment ratio is back at the post recession low.
* Civilian employment numbers have given up the past few months' gains.
* The civilian participation rate is now at a new low.
* Weekly hours have slipped as well.
* Manufacturing employment in non durable goods now below 2010 lows.
* And durable goods manufacturing jobs don't look too much better.
* Government jobs have dipped again, although only slightly.
* Construction jobs remain low, and flat.

"

http://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-report-november-chart-2010-12#

Had dinner with a friend who is a recruiter for financial firm. There is no hiring going on in her firm and she said UBS is on a hiring freeze (and one other bank, don't remember).

And of the most private company new hires (4 out of 5) came in the form of temporary help - all this is adding up to a real "Black Friday". Korea, Eurozone, Wiki fallout, continued unacceptable employment figures. You really want to move out of that rental and buy a coop with increasing maintenance fees? Trade in the small one bedroom for a luxury 3 bedroom condo with the 1 million dollar mortgage? Fasten your seat belts, this roller coaster is ready for the big descent!

Employers are being cautious and hiring only behind the curve.

"CHART OF THE DAY: The Huge Structural Employment Hole Is Going Nowhere"

"Initial jobless claims came in, as expected, at 420,000 this morning. That's improvement over last week and shows improvement in the long-run.

But does it even matter?

The reality is that, while claims are improving, the U.S. has a structural unemployment problem that isn't being addressed. There just aren't any jobs of workers who've been hit the hardest by the housing collapse, and with the way the housing market is going, there likely won't be for some time."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-jobless-claims-structural-2010-12#ixzz18IKJlTpz

"ADP: Private Employment increased by 297,000 in December"

"Private-sector employment increased by 297,000 from November to December on a seasonally adjusted basis ()"

"After a mid-year pause, employment seems to have accelerated as indicated by September’s employment gain of 29,000, October’s gain of 79,000, November’s gain of 92,000 and December’s gain of 297,000. Strength was also evident within all major industries and every size business tracked in the ADP Report."

"The consensus was for ADP to show an increase of about 100,000 private sector jobs in December, so this was well above consensus."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/adp-private-employment-increased-by.html

"Initial Jobless Claims Jump Back Above 400K To 409K"

"The number: Back above 400K, and just a bit worse than expectations."

http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-december-6-2011-1

"Another Big Miss: Just 103K New Jobs Created In December"

"Bummer for the bulls!

Total new jobs were just 103K, well below the official estimates, and WELL below the whispers, which went as high as 300K."

"The unemployment rate dropped to 9.4%."

http://www.businessinsider.com/december-non-farm-payrolls-2011-1

"The Ugly Details Behind Today's Big Jobs Report Miss"

* The amount of Americans unemployed for more than 27 weeks is increasing, after a minor dip in 2010.

* The duration of unemployment is rising yet again. People are just not going back to work.

* And now many are dropping out of the workforce all together, as they can't find jobs to fit their
skill sets.

* One reason many aren't going back to work is that the construction sector simply isn't coming back. Those who lost their jobs here may have nowhere else to go.

* In terms of the U.S. manufacturing sector, it's the 1930s. If you're looking for a job there, it may be improving slightly, but the situation is dim.

* The unemployment rate is down to 9.4%. But what does that mean when more and more people are exiting the workforce?

* Civilians unemployed for 5-14 weeks in in decline, but more and more people are being added to the long-term unemployed list.

* And that has to be taken into consideration; the rate or decline in short-term unemployment isn't telling the structural story.

http://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-report-december-2010-2011-1#the-amount-of-americans-unemployed-for-more-than-27-weeks-is-increasing-after-a-minor-dip-in-2010-1

"Jobless Claims Make Big Spike To 445K"

"The number: Way worse than expectations of 415k, and a big jump last week, and a big jump from that sub-400K that we got right at the end of 200."

http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-december-13-2011-1

poor, poor steveF

Check your mailboxes and count the number of credit card solicitations, insurance solitations, brokerage solications, association offers, other marketing offers, and catalogs.

Compare that to what you received 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months ago.

And secondarily, keep in mind that increases in postage and significant advances in digital media would suggest that direct mail for marketing purposes wouldn't be on the rise, but for optimistic marketers and significant stability and improvements in the consumer marketplace.

"One Day After Securing A Huge Deal With China, Boeing Lays Off 1000 American Workers"

"Boeing just laid off 1000 workers in Southern California, according to the Orange County Register."

"The company has been consistently cutting jobs in Long Beach. It had 20,000 employees there in 1990 and now only has 7,000"

http://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-layoffs-orange-county-2011-1

But that's OK. This 1,000 workers don't need to be employed anyway, because America doesn't need to manufacture anything anymore. Just off-shore it to places where it's cheaper to build things. It's not like jets are technologically complex or anything. Anyone can build them, we'll just tell them how. These thousand folks can just consume, not produce. Because we're all about Consumption Economy.

:/

"January 20, 2011"

"New York City jobless rate falls below 9%"

"Local unemployment fell to 8.9% in December. New Yorkers haven't seen that number in 19 months. Still, the latest data suggest the pace of the city's recovery may be slowing."

"The city's unemployment rate fell to 8.9% in December from 9.1% in November, marking the first time in 19 months that it has dropped below 9%.

But the declining jobless rate was only partially a result of the 50,800 jobs the city gained last year. Economists attributed the falloff largely to the shrinking workforce in the city, which contracted by 1%, or about 38,000 people, in the last six months of the year, according to the state Department of Labor. Workers who get discouraged in their job searches often drop out of the labor force, helping to push down the unemployment rate."

"The city lost 16,600 private-sector jobs last month, though 10,000 of those were in membership organizations like unions, nonprofits and religious groups, ( ) "

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20110120/FREE/110129985

Unemployment is going to be near 10% for the next 20 years. There's no point in tracking the unemployment rate every month because it's not going anywhere.

>Unemployment is going to be near 10% for the next 20 years.

Let's hope not.

huntersburg is hfscomm1.

"Only 47% Of Working Age Americans Have Full Time Jobs"

"To summarize: 108.616 million people in America are either unemployed, underemployed or "Not in the labor force". This represents 45.5% of working age Americans.

If you count the "Part time employed for non-economic reasons", you get 126.8 million Americans who are unemployed, underemployed, working part time or "Not in the labor force". That represents 53% of working age Americans.

So only 47% of working age Americans have full time jobs. While the official unemployment rate is 9.4%. Something's missing somewhere."

http://www.businessinsider.com/real-employment-rate-47-percent-2011-1

"Google will hire at least 6,000 workers 'across the board' in 2011"

"Extending a surge that began last year and that economists said could be a positive sign for the Bay Area's economy, Google says 2011 will be its largest hiring year ever, plans that would mean the Internet giant will add more than 6,000 new workers this year."

http://www.mercurynews.com/business-headlines/ci_17194423?nclick_check=1

"Payrolls Decrease in 35 U.S. States, Led by New York, Minnesota, Florida"

"Payrolls decreased in 35 U.S. states in December, while the unemployment rate rose in 20, showing the labor market recovery is slow to gather momentum.

New York led the nation with 22,800 job cuts last month, followed by Minnesota with 22,400 firings, and Florida with 17,900, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. "

"The report is consistent with figures on Jan. 7 that showed a fewer-than-forecast 103,000 jobs were created nationwide last month even as unemployment fell. Federal Reserve policy makers meeting today and tomorrow are likely to reiterate a pledge to buy $600 billion in government securities through June to help lower unemployment and spur growth. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-25/payrolls-decrease-in-35-u-s-states-led-by-new-york-minnesota-florida.html

And the best part of it all... fewer of us left to pay the bills for the city, state, and fed.

Extending a surge that began last year and that economists said could be a positive sign for the Bay Area's economy, Google says 2011 will be its largest hiring year ever, plans that would mean the Internet giant will add more than 6,000 new workers this year."

That's great news, except we are NOT IN THE BAY AREA!

"Initial Jobless Claims Of 454,000 Are WAY Worse Than Expectations"

"Well, that's a bummer. 454K is way worse than the 410K that analysts were looking for.

Just when it looked like we might be clinging closer to the 400K range, we get this jump.

Obviously people will talk about weather. Who knows."

http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-january-27-2011-1

At least it doesn't snow in the Bay Area... ;)

"ADP Report Smashes Expectations With 187K New Jobs"

"The number:

Welll, that was solid, which might be a bit of a relief in light of the weather.

Last month's huge number was revised down 50K to 247K.

Jobs were created in every category."

http://www.businessinsider.com/adp-january-2011-2

http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/31/news/economy/low_wage_job_growth/index.htm

"Bernhardt's analysis of the first seven months of 2010 found that 76% of jobs created were in low- to mid-wage industries -- those earning between $8.92 to $15 an hour, well below the national average hourly wage of $22.60."

"High-wage sectors -- made up of jobs that pay between $17.43 and $31 an hour -- accounted for nearly half the jobs lost during the recession, but have produced only 5% of the new jobs since hiring resumed, Bernhardt's study showed."

"January Non Manufacturing ISM Prints At 59.4 On Expectations Of 57.2, Prices Paid At 72.1 Highest Since September 2008"

"( ) the Employment Index increased 1.9 percentage points to 54.5 percent, indicating growth in employment for the fifth consecutive month and at a faster rate."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/january-non-manufacturing-ism-prints-594-expectations-572-prices-paid-721-highest-september-

Sunday, I need low-wager jobbers to prepare my Starbuck's Grande Moca with Whipped cream. I don't give a crap that they can't live in Manhattan or that they have to work 12 hours and two job to make ends meet.

"High-wage sectors -- made up of jobs that pay between $17.43 and $31 an hour -- accounted for nearly half the jobs lost during the recession, but have produced only 5% of the new jobs since hiring resumed, Bernhardt's study showed."

Well, if the Irish carpenters to do it, why not the US carpenters... :-)

"NFP +36,000, Huge Miss To +146,000 Expectations, 9% Unemployment, Not Seasonally Adjusted U-6 Surges From 16.6% to 17.3%"

"Highlights

* Change in Private Payrolls (Jan) M/M 50K vs. Exp. 145K (Prev. 113K)
* Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan) M/M 49K vs. Exp. 10K (Prev. 10K)
* Seasonally adjusted U-6 underemployment 16.1% from 16.6% previously
* Much more importantly, Not-seasonally adjusted U-6 surged from 16.6% to 17.3%!
* The civilian labor force declined from 153,690 to 153,186
* Government workers: from 20,759K to 20,740K
* Labor force participation at 64.2%, the lowest since March March 1984
* Part-time workers for economic reasons: 8,407
* Part-time workers for non-economic reasons: 17,552
* Birth/Death adjustment: -339,000

We are now all awaiting Snow Lavorgna to appear and explain how January snow is to blame for genital herpes, among every other bad thing in the world."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nfp-36000-huge-miss-146000-expectations-9-unemployment

hey idot snow lavorgna is gonna blow ur doors off...the BLS changed thier sampling population method...if you used last months sampling to make an apples to apples comparison, NFP would have been over 500k. have a nice day and start listening to people that actually do the real homework.

thats why JL works at a major bank and zero hedge puts his info on a blog sponsored by "bad idea T-shirts"...nice

"Just How Ugly Is The Truth Of America's Unemployment: David Rosenberg Explains"

"Over the past 3 days America has been battered by one after another apologist explaining just how good the employment data is if one strips out all the "bad", and how all the "bad" can and should be stripped out by all patriots, and attributed solely to bad weather. For those who are beyond sick and tired of listening to this tripe, here is David Rosenberg once again telling it how it is. In summary: "The data from the Household survey are truly insane. The labour force has plunged an epic 764k in the past two months. The level of unemployment has collapsed 1.2 million, which has never happened before. People not counted in the labour force soared 753k in the past two months. These numbers are simply off the charts and likely reflect the throngs of unemployed people starting to lose their extended benefits and no longer continuing their job search (for the two-thirds of them not finding a new job). These folks either go on welfare or they rely on their spouse or other family members or friends for support."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/just-how-ugly-truth-americas-unemployment-david-rosenberg-explains

"Job Openings Drop By 250K In Last Two Months, Stand At 3.1 Million In December"

"According to the latest JOLTS survey released by the BLS, the number of total job openings in December declined to 3,063,000 a drop from November's 3.2 million and even more so from October's 3.328 million. Expressed as a Job openings rate, this was a third consecutive decline, dropping from 2.5% in October to 2.3% currently. And while job openings were dropping, separation levels increased from 4.084 million in October to 4.154 in November and 4.162 million in December. The bulk of separations occurred in the construction industry where we saw a print of 473k, or over 100K more than November's 363K."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/job-openings-drop-250k-last-two-months-stand-31-million-december

"10 Reasons Why It Has Become Soul-Crushingly Hard To Find A Job In America"

8 - "Tens of thousands of factories and millions of jobs are moving to China"

http://www.businessinsider.com/reasons-its-hard-to-find-a-job-in-america-2011-2#

op Forecaster Brown Sees U.S. Adding 2 Million Jobs in 2011
2011-02-09 05:00:00.2 GMT

By Bob Willis and Kristy Scheuble
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will create 2
million jobs in 2011, twice as many as last year, said Scott
Brown, the most accurate forecaster of the jobless rate over the
past two years according to Bloomberg News calculations.
Unemployment will end the year at 8.6 percent, projected
Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc., less
than the 8.8 percent median forecast of 61 economists surveyed
by Bloomberg from Feb. 2 to Feb. 8. It dropped to 9 percent in
January from 9.4 percent the prior month.
President Barack Obama’s deal with congressional
Republicans to reduce the payroll tax and extend Bush-era cuts
will put more money in Americans’ pockets and spur demand, said
Brown. The need to rebuild inventories as sales climb will give
the world’s largest economy an added lift this year, he said.
“We’ll see consumer spending remaining pretty strong,”
Brown said in a telephone interview from St. Petersburg,
Florida. “Firms large and small won’t hire unless they see more
demand.”
Economists in this month’s survey projected gross domestic
product will grow 3.2 percent in 2011, the most in seven years,
according to the survey median. That was up from 3.1 percent in
the January survey. Brown forecasts growth this year of 3.3
percent accelerating to 3.4 percent in 2012.
Brown arrives at his unemployment forecasts by mining data
on jobless claims, firing plans, small business sentiment and
purchasing manager surveys. For his longer-term outlook on
economic growth, he often writes up lists of positives and
negatives, weighing how they may play out.

Years Away

Brown forecasts the economy will create about 167,000 jobs
a month on average this year. The total gain, while more than
double last year’s 909,000, shows the U.S. is still years away
from recovering the 8.75 million lost in the recession.
Some companies are focusing on adding hourly staff to boost
sales, while reducing higher-paid management positions.
Lowe’s Cos., the second-biggest U.S. home-improvement
retailer, plans to add 8,000 to 10,000 weekend sales positions
to improve staffing at the busiest time of the week. The
Mooresville, North Carolina-based chain also will cut 1,700
middle-management jobs as profit growth trails that of larger
rival Home Depot Inc.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Consumer Discretionary Index,
which includes retailers like Lowe’s and J.C. Penney Co., has
climbed 34 percent since June 30, exceeding the 29 percent gain
in the broader 500 Index.

Walt Disney

Walt Disney Co., the world’s biggest theme-park company,
yesterday reported first-quarter profit that beat analysts’
estimates as the recovering economy drove attendance gains at
its theme parks and advertising growth at cable networks led by
ESPN.
A Labor Department report last week showed payrolls rose by
a fewer-than-forecast 36,000 in January, depressed in part by
winter storms. “Growth is improving but it’s not enough to
generate a lot of jobs,” said Brown.
That forecast is in sync with the view of Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.
“Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation,
we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established,”
Bernanke said in a speech in Washington last week. “With
employers reportedly still reluctant to add to their payrolls,
it will be several years before the unemployment rate has
returned to a more normal level.”

Less Optimistic

Brown’s peers this month were less optimistic on the
outlook for household purchases. Consumer spending will average
3.2 percent this year, the biggest gain since 2005, according to
the median estimate of economists. Brown sees consumer spending
rising 3.7 percent in the current quarter and advancing 3.4
percent for all of 2011.
Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International
Inc. in New York, is among those who agree spending will get off
to a strong start this year. “Better job-market conditions,
improving confidence and the payroll tax cut are supporting
spending in the first quarter,” said Pandl.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research sees the
consumer lagging behind the broader recovery, with inventory
rebuilding a major contributor to growth early in 2011 and
continued support from business investment.
“Income growth is weak and income is the single most
important feed into consumption,” Neil Dutta, an economist at
Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.
Brown agrees hurdles remain for the expansion. He is
“watching housing prices closely” because further declines
will undermine confidence and consumer spending. Strains in
state and local government budgets will also lead to spending
cuts and job losses, weighing on the recovery, he said.

"Jobless Claims Drop By 36,000, Print At 383,000, On Expectations Of 410K"

"So what is wrong with this picture: 457,000; 419,000 (upward revised of course from 415,000); 383,000. Those are the initial claims (Seasonally adjusted, as in adjusted for snow) over the past three weeks. Stock vol (which is now non-existent), has moved to BLS economic time series... And yes, we had a sub 400k print in December, which was also one of those "the economy is stronger, no doubt about it moments." Most notably, the data is for the week of February 5, when all of America was covered in a blizzard. Odd how that is not mentioned."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jobless-claims-drop-36000-print-383000-expectations-410k

Q: What do you do when unemployment rate is not heading where you want it to?
A: Change the rules.

"The SF Fed Says Unemployment Will Never Fall To Pre-Crash Levels"

"The San Francisco Federal Reserve just released a report that suggests the natural rate of unemployment in the U.S. (also sometimes called NAIRU) is going up and may actually be 6.7%. That means, relying on last month's 9% unemployment rate, we're only 2.3% away from the natural rate."

http://www.businessinsider.com/natural-rate-of-unemployment-fed-2011-2

See? Fixed!

"STRONG AGAIN: ADP Beats Expectations At 217K New Jobs, And January Is Revised Higher"

"Analysts are looking for 165K."

http://www.businessinsider.com/february-adp-2011-3

what does zerohedge have to say ?

Uhhh.... "Alas, checking in with NFP data validates the complete lack of ADP data credibility, which now joins NAR housing data, various diffusion indices and of course consumer confidence data on the trash heap of busted economic indicators. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/february-adp-217000-beats-expectations-180000

"February Layoffs Spike To An 11-Month High, As Municipalities Continue To Slash"

"The largest portion of layoffs last month came from government and non-profit employers, which announced 16,380 job cuts, up 154 percent from 6,450 in January and 196 percent higher than a year ago when 5,528 job cuts were announced in February. While most of the cuts occurred at the state and local level, the United States Postal Service announced that it reduced its headcount by 5,600 in recent months.

A little bad news before Friday's big report."

http://www.businessinsider.com/february-challenger-layoffs-2011-3

"BOOM: Another Awesome Initial Claims Report"

"Initial claims of 368K is better than expectations.

Last week was revised down, too."

http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-march-3-2011-3

so what measures of the econome does zerohedge trust ?

"Gallup Reports Underemployment Surges To 19.9%, February "Jobs Situation Deteriorates": As Bad As 2010"

"On one hand we have the Department of Truth about to tell tomorrow that NFP based on various seasonal and birth death adjustments increased by 250,000. On the other hand, we have Gallup which actually does real time polling without a procyclical propaganda bias. And Gallup does't have any good news: "Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.3% in February -- up from 9.8% at the end of January. The U.S. unemployment rate is now essentially the same as the 10.4% at the end of February 2010." And the one indicator that nobody in the mainstream media will touch with a ten foot pole: "Underemployment, a measure that combines part-time workers wanting full-time work with those who are unemployed, surged in February to 19.9%."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gallup-reports-underemployment-surges-199-jobs-situation-deteriorates-bad-february-2010

Looks like they "trust" Gallup.

Gallup survey is based on 30k people survey. whats department of labor based on ?

I nver knew Gallup calculates the unemployment rate. I thoght they do political polls, like approval ratings of politicians. Not sure if I would put much faith iin them in the area of unemployment.

the bls household survey, which is the basis of the unemployment rate, is based on a survey of 60k.

so what was zerohedge saying back in late 2008 and 2009 when NFP's were coming in -500k, -800k etc..? you can look at monthly progression from then till now and see the numbers getting better. obviously we still have a long way to go, but there is clear improvement.

JOBS REPORT: 192K New Jobs, Unemployment Rate FALLS Below 9%

The number:
Snooze.
192K new jobs is right in line.
The unemployment rate fell to 8.9%.
Private sector payrolls rose 222K.
There were good revisions to both January and December numbers.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-jobs-report-2011-3

"Initial Claims In Line With Expectations At 385K, CPI Jumps, Key Food Prices Rise By Most Since July 2008"

"Initial claims for the past week came at 385K on expectations of 388K, just slightly lower from last week's upward revised 401,000"

"Food indexes also continued to rise in February, with sharp increases in the indexes for fresh vegetables and meats contributing to a 0.8 percent increase in the food at home index, the largest since July 2008. The index for all items less food and energy rose in February as well. Most of its major components posted increases, including the indexes for shelter, new vehicles, medical care, and airline fares. The apparel index was one of the few to decline."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-claims-line-expectations-385k-cpi-jumps-key-food-prices-rise-most-july-2008

zerohedge?

"March Employment Report: 216,000 Jobs, 8.8% Unemployment Rate"

"Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from +63,000 to +68,000, and the change for February was revised from +192,000 to +194,000."

http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html#category=Employment&chart=JobLossesPercentAlignMar2011.jpg

"Mortgage Lenders lay off workers as refinance activity declines rapidly"

"A rebound in mortgage rates from last year's near-record low has reduced consumer demand for home loans and refinancings, leading Wells Fargo & Co. to join other industry stalwarts in laying off loan processors and related workers.

The San Francisco bank, the nation's No. 1 mortgage lender, has handed pink slips to about 1,900 workers who had processed loans generated both by Wells' mortgage unit and by independent brokers, a spokesman said Thursday."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/mortgage-lenders-lay-off-workers-as.html

Best Job Market for U.S. Grads Since 2008 Bears Multiple Offers
2011-04-28 04:01:00.5 GMT

By Oliver Staley, Douglas MacMillan and Cecile Vannucci
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Hamza Afzal had such a hard time
finding an electrical-engineering internship in the recession
that he delayed his graduation, took pre-med classes and applied
to law school. This year, he got two job offers in his field.
“I definitely saw a shift in the job market,” said Afzal, a
24-year-old senior at San Jose State University, who will start
May 30 at chipmaker Linear Technology Corp. in nearby Milpitas,
California. “There was a lot of pressure off my shoulders.”
The class of 2011 is enjoying the best job market for new
graduates since the 2008 financial crisis, according to the
National Association of Colleges and Employers. The turnaround
is being driven by gains in finance, energy and technology, said
Edwin Koc, who heads research at the association. Companies are
filling a backlog of jobs after two years of stagnant hiring and
looking to younger workers to fill vacancies, he said. This
year, 1.61 million students are expected to graduate, he said.
Job creation is booming in Silicon Valley, where postings
have doubled from two years ago at technology career website
Dice Holdings Inc.
“It’s quite a stunning comeback,” said Lance Choy, director
of the career development center at Stanford University near
Palo Alto, California. “Over the past couple of years there’s
been a lot of anxiety. It’s been a bleak time for students.
We’ve come back from quite a dip.”

‘Recruit Once, Hire Twice’

Postings at Stanford’s online job board for full-time
positions surged 36 percent to 1,900 in the fourth quarter of
last year compared with a year earlier, Choy said. Internship
postings climbed 31 percent.
Emerging areas of technology like social media, mobile
applications and e-commerce are fueling rapid hiring at large
companies like Google Inc. and Apple Inc. as well as at hundreds
of venture capital-backed startups.
At San Jose State, job postings increased by 59 percent in
the first quarter from a year earlier, according to Cheryl
Allmen-Vinnedge, director of the school’s career center. A job
fair at the university on April 12 drew more employers than the
school had room for, she said.
Increasingly, students are finding that internships can
lead to full-time jobs as companies use them to audition
potential employees, Allmen-Vinnedge said.
“Employers want to recruit once and hire twice,” she
said.

Internship Fever

Robert Fischer, 22, a San Jose State senior from Los Altos,
California, spent three years interning at Google and will start
a full-time position after graduating in May.
“I look at an internship as sort of an extended interview,”
said Fischer, who became fascinated with engineers at Mountain
View, California-based Google while in high school. “I showed
them how hard I was willing to work and the things I could do. I
think that helped.”
Zynga Inc., the biggest maker of online games on Facebook
Inc., is hiring about 130 college graduates this year, 35
percent more than last year, said Dani Dudeck, a spokeswoman for
the San Francisco-based company.
Facebook is “aggressively hiring the best talent we can in
the quickest manner possible,” said Adam Ward, a recruiting
manager at the Palo Alto company, who didn’t disclose how many
positions are being added.
That kind of hiring is a switch from the past few years,
when the recession crimped hiring of new graduates by the
biggest consulting firms and investment banks. Students were
forced to work harder at networking and contacting alumni, said
Stanford’s Choy.
“There’s a lot of frustration,” he said. “They wondered,
‘Gee, all this education, what is it worth?’”

Early Offers

In 2009, the University of California, Berkeley, halved its
job fair from two days to one because of a dearth of interested
employers. This year, the April event returned to two days and
drew 160 companies, up from 95 last year.
The hiring climate is also improving outside Silicon
Valley. Schools from New York University to Northwestern
University in Evanston, Illinois, say opportunities this year
for graduating students have increased, and that the recruiting
process began earlier than in past years.
Employer attendance at Northwestern’s fall job fair grew 42
percent, according to Lonnie Dunlap, executive director of the
school’s career services. Job postings have climbed 48 percent.
Danielle Even, 22, an NYU senior with a double major in
finance and economics, accepted a job offer last August. The
Brooklyn native interned during the summer at Evercore Partners
Inc. and was offered a full-time position at the investment bank
that starts in June.
“I was able to sign and really not have to worry about
searching for a job throughout my whole senior year,” Even said
in a phone interview.

Tough for Some

The path to the workforce isn’t smooth for all students.
Alice Boudes, 21, a Boston University senior majoring in
communications, has been searching for a job without a specific
occupation in mind.
“It’s super competitive,” the French-born student said.
“Especially for communications, jobs don’t really open up until
later in the year. It’s tough. I’m a part-time student this
semester, and I did that on purpose so that I could have more
time to try to find a job.”
Graduate students may be the biggest winners of the hiring
boom, especially those with degrees in business, engineering or
computer science.
Madhavi Sewak, 22, a computer science master’s candidate at
Stanford from New Delhi, received three job offers and will
start at Google when she graduates. Fellow Stanford student
Adithya Rao, 30, from Bangalore, India, had five offers.

Less Risky Path?

The frenzy to hire business and engineering students makes
it a great opportunity for job seekers, who can gain valuable
experience being part of a startup, said Baba Shiv, a professor
at Stanford Graduate School of Business who studies human
behavior.
“For students, it’s the perfect time to take chances,” he
said. “Do it now. In five years, it will be over.”
That’s the route Hamid Schricker, 30, is taking. A student
at the Haas School of Business at Berkeley, Schricker took a
leave of absence in December to work at Fwix, a San Francisco
startup that offers an online news service for local
communities, after an internship there.
“There was less risk to join the company than to stay in
school,” said Schricker, who is from San Francisco. “I can
always go back to business school and complete my degree.”

How much do you want to bet that Hamza Afzal is an H1-B taking a job away from an American? Engineering is full of them.

sweet....kids from nyu northwestern stanford berkeley (and san jose state, if they intern for three years) are getting jobs more easily than in 2008 and 2009

buy now or get left behind foreverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

"best since 2008". Uh, is that supposed to sound good?

"Initial Claims: 474K - Bring Out QE3"

"And scene: jobless claims explode to 474K, beyond the worst economist expectation, far above consensus of 410K, and well above the previous (upward revised of course) number of 431K. This is the worst claims number since Aigist 2010. Game over for the US "recovery."

"second biggest miss to consensus in history"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-claims-474k-bring-out-qe3

no mention of the one time factors that caused the spike huh? lets see how the payrolls come in tomorrow..we'll dig up this thread 1yr from now to see just how over the recovery is

i loved the "one-time" non-seasonally accounted for factor: spring break in NYC. spring break in NYC doesn't happen every year? it happened later this year, which just means that the seasonally adjusted figure a few weeks ago was too low. duh.

marco, you really seem to be conflating the stock market and general economic conditions. GDP growth has been anemic, at best, and that with a ton of stimulative factors.

you say tomatoe I say tomato. how are retail sales lookin?

april was a good month, march not so good. with or without gas?

lots of good numbers, lots of bad numbers. your perspective is amazingly simplistic, however. increased profits don't necessarily mean a damn thing to 90% of americans, particularly if those profits come from overseas growth and are reinvested overseas. the vast majority of americans do not derive ordinary income from stock market appreciation. and if domestically retail sales are improving because of increased credit, i wouldn't look at it very positively either.

real income growth, increased employment opportunities in full-time jobs with benefits, increases in federal and local tax receipts, those are the things i'm looking for to demonstrate a "recovery." not 50,000 jobs at mcdonald's, given on one day during a month when the franchises always do this level of hiring. how many times can bloomberg reporters refer to that "event" as evidence of hiring increases? sad.

please check growth in tax receipts. theyre up all over the place. perceived wealth from increased 401k's plays a significant role in people spending habits. a rising tide lifts all boats.

"rising tide" indeed...

"As Food Stamp Recipients Hit New Record, 400 Americans Account For 10% Of Capital Gains"

"() we just saw another all time high 44.2 million poverty-level Americans relying on government funding for day to day sustenance."

"400 US taxpayers account for 10% of all capital gains in 2007"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/food-stamp-recipients-hit-new-record-400-americans-account-10-capital-gains

That's "trickle down" for you! Smell that? Smells like urine tricking down on us from The 400. I just hope your "rising tide" doesn't wash all this goodness away, revolution Egypt-style.

up from what level? marco, you're channeling Reagan and that's never pretty.

some people, including this household, are doing quite well. the vast majority are not. and that's after having spent trillions to pull the economy out from the abyss. you're seeing the results of that spending. there's not enough water in this lake to keep all but the yachts afloat. but hope springs eternal, and all that. particularly if one has recently purchased real estate.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-05/consumer-comfort-in-u-s-falls-on-surging-gasoline-prices.html
"Last week’s drop in the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index reflected deterioration in two of its three components. The buying-climate index decreased to the second-lowest level since January 2010, while Americans’ views of the economy also fell. The gauge of personal finances held near the prior week’s reading that was the lowest in two months."

Reagan wasnt a movie star cuz he was ugly! I'm just saying I think the worst is behind us and the good times are ahead. we'll see what happens

game over ?

the game has just begun, marco. keep your eyes on the big picture.

I was saying game over to the zero hedge clown who claimed the US recovery was dead yesterday. I continue to believe in this recovery and Im glad that Im already long RE and stocks. I think Im on the right side..we'll see what happens.

"Initial Claims: 474K - Bring Out QE3"

"And scene: jobless claims explode to 474K, beyond the worst economist expectation, far above consensus of 410K, and well above the previous (upward revised of course) number of 431K. This is the worst claims number since Aigist 2010. Game over for the US "recovery."

you make it sound like economic recovery is a religious event. lets all get in a tent and scream, I believe. and then we will have economic recovery.

face facts, there are less and less jobs that add meaningful value in today's economy.

I agree there has been a sturctural change in the labor market. many jobs are not coming back, which is why this recovery is taking longer. I know one thing for sure...dont bet against America..we always find a way.

"April Employment Report: 244,000 Jobs, 9.0% Unemployment Rate"

"Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 244,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in several service-providing industries, manufacturing, and mining.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised from +194,000 to +235,000, and the change for March was revised from +216,000 to +221,000. "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/april-employment-report-244000-jobs-90.html

---

"As People Not In Labor Force Hit New Record, Those Who "Want A Job Now" Jump By 232,000 In One Month"

"( ) the total number of persons not in the labor force as an absolute number just hit a new all time record of 86.248 million, higher than the previous record hit in February of 86.216 million. And just as relevantly, the total number of "people who want a job now" jumped by 232,000 from March to April to 6.482 million, just short of the previous record of 6.643 million. Can someone please redirect all these people to the minimum wage, part time jobs that just opened up at US fast food retailers please?"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/people-not-labor-force-hit-new-record-those-who-want-job-now-jump-232000-one-month

"One Million Apply for 62,000 Jobs…with McDonald’s"

"The world’s biggest restaurant chain reported that it received one million applicants for open positions, which resulted in 62,000 people gaining employment. Another 900,000 plus were turned down."

http://www.allgov.com/Top_Stories/ViewNews/One_Million_Apply_for_62000_Jobs__with_McDonalds_110506

Would you like fries with that?

244,000 jobs created... but 62,000 of those jobs are part time, minimum wage jobs at McDonalds. And McDonalds only hired 6% of those who applied!

"I know one thing for sure...dont bet against America"

I would bet against America in a heartbeat! In just 5 short years, China, not the U.S., will have the #1 largest economy.

"America's Vanishing Middle Class: A Tale of Two Economies"

"( ) middle-class jobs are declining at an alarming rate. Middle income jobs have been falling rapidly for some time and now represent well less than half of all jobs in the US. New numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest that these middle income jobs have been replaced by low-income jobs. This has left 17 million college-educated Americans with jobs well below their educational levels. If the middle-class are filling the jobs available for the less educated, then the poorest Americans will largely be left jobless. The question we need to start asking is not "how do we add jobs to the economy?"; rather, it is "how do we create middle-class jobs to rebuild our economy?"

http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/05/americas_vanishing_middle_clas.html?cm_sp=most_widget-_-default-_-America%27s%20Vanishing%20Middle%20Class%3A%20A%20Tale%20of%20Two%20Economies

"would bet against America in a heartbeat! In just 5 short years, China, not the U.S., will have the #1 largest economy."

Idiot.

Explain how 10% growth a year for 5 years has $6T surpass $15T.

The IMF is now predicting that China will pass the US, as the world’s number one economic power, within five years.

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-to-surpass-us-sooner-than-expected-2011-4#ixzz1Nx9iDG9n

Funny, because the IMF isn't actually predicting it.

Again, explain the math genius....

Its putzes like this who get suckered by politicians into believing anything.

"ADP DISASTER: Just 38K New Private Jobs In May"

"That's well below the 175K jobs that were expected. It's a major confirmation of the recent slowdown, and a very ominous sign ahead of Friday's big jobs report."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/may-adp-2011-6#ixzz1O28bYUTV

Tighten Belt: Americans Lower Expectations for Making Money
By: John Melloy
Executive Producer, Fast Money
Published: Thursday, 2 Jun 2011 | 3:34 PM ET
Squeezed on both sides by stagnant wages and rising prices, consumers believe the chances of bringing home more money one year from now are at their lowest in 25 years, according to analysis of survey data by Goldman Sachs.

Goldman’s economist Jan Hatzius looked at the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters poll, which asks consumers whether they believe their family income will rise more than inflation in the next 12 months. Hatzius applied a six-month moving average to smooth out the data and found that wage pessimism is at its lowest in more than two decades.

“Households are already very pessimistic about future real income growth,” wrote Goldman’s economist to clients. “A slowdown in job growth would presumably translate into a further deterioration in (expected and actual) real income growth. This would heighten the downside risks to our current forecast that real consumer spending will grow 2.5 percent to 3 percent over the next year and might call for another downward revision to our forecast for US GDP growth in 2011 and 2012.”

One more steveF - spunky - theory, down the drain.

much as i get a giggle from the title of this thread, and the source, today's "employment" number are frightening--a final wallop to several weeks of awful economic news--and the risk worsens of a serious asset collapse

"May Non-Farm Payrolls 54K, Below Consensus Of 165,000, Unemployment Rate 9.1%"

"Massive collapse in the American employment situation: May NFP at 54K, down from 244K, and not only below consensus of 165K, but below the lowest economist prediction of 65K. Private payrolls increased just 83K on expectations of 170K. Manufacturing payroll dropped 5K on expectation sof a 10K rise. The unemployment rate was 9.1%, although U-6 declined from 15.9% t 15.8%. The absolute number of unemployed increased fom 13.747 million to 13.914 million. For the third month in a row the Labor Force Participation rate remained flat at 64.2%."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/may-non-farm-payrolls-54k-below-consensus-165000-unemployment-rate-91

"People Who Want A Job Now, Average Duration Of Unemployment Both Hit All Time Highs"

"Two charts that confirm that the US economy is, and has been for the past 3 years, in nothing short of a depression."

"And average duration of unemployment which just hit 39.7 weeks. Another record. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/images/Average%20Duration_0.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/people-who-want-job-now-average-duration-unemployment-both-hit-all-time-highs

WB, though this is not an official prediction by me, I think it is quite possible that by the end of the summer, combining the normal summer swoon with the end of QE-Stupid and the failing economy (caused, to a large degree, by QE-Stupid), combined with Europe, combined with the Tea-Party budget-balancers at a time when you need a contrarian fiscal policy, combined with states cutting unemployment benefits, and we could approach Dow 8,000 (again).

QE-Stupid was counterproductive, in that it caused commodity inflation along with the increase in stock prices. "Core inflation," while it has its merits, does not measure inflation the way households and businesses do. To the degree that oil prices are correlated with the stock market, I think you'll see the bottom of the market when oil hits $50 a barrel, or thereabouts, slightly below where it was before QE-Stupid began.

"BLS: Job Openings decline in April"

"This report is for April, the most recent (and dismal) employment report was for May."

"The number of job openings in April was 3.0 million, little changed from 3.1 million in March. After increasing in February, job openings have been flat. Job openings have been around 3.0 million for three consecutive months; the last three-month period with levels this high was September—November 2008. The number of job openings was 549,000 higher than at the end of the recession in June 2009 (as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research) but remains well below the 4.4 million openings when the recession began in December 2007. "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/bls-job-openings-decline-in-april.html

Twenty months on:

Ben Bernanke: "Particularly concerning is the very high level of long-term unemployment--nearly half of the unemployed have been jobless for more than six months. People without work for long periods can find it increasingly difficult to obtain a job comparable to their previous one, as their skills tend to deteriorate over time and as employers are often reluctant to hire the long-term unemployed."

http://www.businessinsider.com/bernanke-is-worried-about-the-long-term-unemployed-2011-6

Look at that chart.

"McKinsey Presents: 9 Scary Facts About The Unemployment Crisis"

"The United States will have to create 21 million jobs in the next 9 years to reach full employment, according to a study from the consulting group McKinsey.

The report details how this is going to be a long slog. It will take 60 months at our current growth rate to return to pre-recession employment levels, according to the report. And that doesn't even count all those new employees entering the workforce. More Americans will need to go back to school to get these new jobs, with McKinsey estimating that the market needs 1.5 million more Americans with undergraduate degrees. More worrying: the U.S. could shed 6 million workers without high school diplomas by 2020."

http://www.businessinsider.com/mckinsey-unemployment-nightmare-report-2011-6

Stey in skool!

"Mapping State (Un)Employment Trends"

"In May, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 22 states, decreased in 27 states and the District of Columbia, and was unchanged in 1 state. ( ) The largest over-the-month decrease in employment occurred in California (-29,200), followed by New York (-24,700)"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mapping-state-unemployment-trends

"Why the Jobs Situation Is Worse Than It Looks"

"The inescapable bottom line is an unprecedented slack in the U.S. labor market. Labor's share of national income has fallen to the lowest level in modern history, down to 57.5 percent in the first quarter as compared to 59.8 percent when the so-called recovery began. This reflects not only the 7 million fewer workers but the fact that wages for part-time workers now average $19,000—less than half the median income."

"Clearly, the Great American Job Machine is breaking down, and roadside assistance is not on the horizon. In the second half of this year (and thereafter?), we will be without the monetary and fiscal steroids. Nor does anyone know what will happen to long-term interest rates when the Federal Reserve ends its $600 billion quantitative easing support of the capital markets. Inventory levels are at their highest since September 2006; new order bookings are at the lowest levels since September 2009. Since home equity has long been the largest asset on the balance sheet of the average American family, all home­owners are suffering from housing prices that have, on average, declined 33 percent (compare that to the Great Depression drop of 31 percent)."

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/mzuckerman/articles/2011/06/20/why-the-jobs-situation-is-worse-than-it-looks_print.html

"The Driver Of Employment "Gains" - Job Separations At Lowest In A Decade"

"In the 2001, the level of NEW HIRINGS was running as high as 5.8 mm per month. We are currently sitting below 4.0 mm hirings per month and that doesn't account for the required growth in jobs due to demographics."

"The bottom line, the "employment gains" have not been due to increased hiring, but due to ever more desperate people no longer daring to leave whatever job security they may have (and willing to take pay cuts as a condition of keeping said jobs)."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/driver-employment-gains-job-separations-lowest-decade