Homes: About to get much cheaper

The median price in New York, according to this article is $375,000!!!! And you are posting this as a predictor? Seriously?

Seriously.

You'll be lucky to get a parking spot for 375K in NYC.

LOL!!!

So your opinion is that Manhattan prices are uncorrelated to Queens prices and Brooklyn prices? That Manhattan exists in a separate universe?

It was precisely that mindset that got us to where we are. Note that prices have fallen 21.7% in the metropolitan region, whereas they have fallen between 25% and 30% in Manhattan.

How do the facts correlate to your interpretation of them?

Well there's no doubt that median is not representative of what most people are looking at on this board, but it's certainly relevant to the discussion. I do think the MSA is a bit large to extrapolate a 1:1 comparison of what will happen in Manhattan (ie: Wayne, NJ isn't all that relevant, as has been discussed here), but there is definitely a considerable impact from the surrounding counties.

ericho, I'll sell you my indoor parking spot for $375k.

how exactly have prices fallen between 25 -30 % in manhattan? Are you seeing that 1 mil apartment selling for 700k? or that 500k studio going for 350k? i am not. maybe some badly overpriced walk ups. yes, the luxury market has taken a big hit. but most people arent buying 6 mill dollar apartments.
I live in chelsea, and i am not seeing much of a discount on apartments.

perhaps you may want to check out some of the strings here on apartments selling at 25+ discounts to comps. hundreds of examples.

In GV and Chelsea (markets with which I am most familiar) I have not seen 30% decrease in studios, one-bdrms, and true two bd-rms across the board in good buildings. Comps within buildings aren't reflecting this large a claimed reduction. There are some such sales that are 30% off "asking" price, but asking price isn't really much of a gauge--much better measure is prior sales of similar units.

yes maybe on 43th and 10th, or 49th and 1st you are finding discounts. and probably in not so great buildings. but anything that is remotely nice is not selling at a 30% discount.
a lot of these apartments in old nasty buildings should not have been selling for such high prices to begin with. but we had a bubble, and everything was selling. now they are back to reality. but i am not seeing luxury doorman buildings offer a 30% discount.

Sorry to burst KW's and EK's bubble, but:

Cheaper Manhattan apartments draw buyers

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5910MA20091002

"Since peaking in the first half of 2008, Manhattan apartment prices have fallen an average of 25 percent to 30 percent." - Jonathan Miller.

I find it amazing that when prices were going irrationally up people LOVED to quote sources on how great the market was, but on the way down...

not so much.

Steve - that is saying the median price of $375,000 is for the metro area, not just NYC...correct?

ekar: There are many. Here is a brand new, total revovation -- all high end finishes-- UWS doorman building. Just wait till you see more resales in Harrison and 10 West, Trump buildings etc. There will be many more like this.
Avonova
219 West 81st Street
New York, NY 10024

Sales listings: 5 active, 17 in contract and 49 previous

STREETEASY HISTORY
01/10/2008
Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Avonova Sales Office at $1,750,000.
06/26/2008
Previous Sale recorded for $1,750,000.
07/24/2008
Avonova Sales Office Listing sold.
02/19/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,575,000.
03/09/2009
Price decreased by 3% to $1,535,000.
04/14/2009
Price decreased by 2% to $1,499,000.
06/03/2009
Price decreased by 7% to $1,399,000.
07/21/2009
Listing entered contract.
09/14/2009
Listing sold.
09/14/2009
Sale recorded for $1,335,000.

apt23 - all of the buildings in your example had/have hugely inflated asking prices. Hardly indicative of the majority of the UWS market

Avonova has an average asking price of $1374/sqft

The Harrison $1839/sqft.

UWS median price is $1000/sqft

"The nation's biggest metro area, New York City, will underperform the nation as a whole over the next two years, according to Fiserv. Prices, which have already fallen 21.7% to a median of $375,000, are expected to fall 17.4% by June 2011."

that 17.4% of the median price comes to a loss of $64k. not irrelevant for the average joe that buys at current price levels. NYC includes bronx, brooklyn, queens and staten island. manhattan has around 160k owner-occupied units while bronx, for example, has 90k. so it's very easy to see why manhattan prices are much higher than the NYC's median.

the real prime units in manhattan went down more than 30% from the peak imho, i've seen nice units trade for 50% down from peak.

waverly, yes.

admin, just FYI, the NY metropolitan area includes much more than NYC. Juicy and LICC argue that it is immaterial to Manhattan. Seems to be in some sense, as the data in Manhattan show a much greater decline from peak than for the metro area as a whole.

Chelsea's down just like the rest of NYC.

Check out Miller Samuel's data tab.

Average Chelsea coop price per square foot:

4Q2007: $1,241
2Q2008: $1,177

3Q2009: $919

(I question the 4Q2007 number as 2Q2008 appears to be the time when Manhattan peaked out.)

PPSF is not a perfect measure but it's the best I see on MS.

JuiceMan liked ppsf, until he didn't.

"Juicy and LICC argue that it is immaterial to Manhattan. "

don't agree with this, other counties provide a substitute for RE in Manhattan. whether they (and their friends) would personally opt to live outside of Manhattan or not is immaterial.

I think any objective observer will admit that as the job situation becomes more dire, especially in NYC, that real estate will continue to fall. We just don't know how much and for how long. My feeling is at least 25percent more down and another two or three years of stagnation. One thing I'm positive about; we won't see booms like we did from 01-08 for a very, very long time, if ever.

Another fiery debate on which way things are headed...that's good, I suppose.

I think overall there are 2 things that matter: 1) the debt bubble has burst, which means mortgage debt is harder to come by and more expensive, and 2) the economy as a whole has not recovered much at all.

Those two things are weighing us down, and they matter more together than the fact that the stock market is up, or that ibanks are giving out bonus money.

In this case the negatives weigh more because they are big heavy long-term trends, while the positives are temporary upticks. Stock market movement without support from other indicators is not a solid sign of anything, and bank bonuses were never a very important indicator even in boom times, they were supporting evidence but not compelling on their own.

NYC real estate prices are going to come down from where they are. There is not enough capital out there among prospective buyers to support present values. And no signs that more capital will accumulate.

But even if you disagree with me, it would be a terribly foolish time to buy, just because of the uncertainty. Who would build a house in the middle of a rising storm?

Grafitti - I agree with you entirely!!!!! BRAVO.

"Who would build a house in the middle of a rising storm?"

Remember: Denial is more than a river.

"Who would build a house in the middle of a rising storm?"

Graffiti, the easy counterpoint is that no one would make (or lose, of course) much money if everyone bought when there was much certainty. The reality is, there should never be any urgent pressure to buy, in good times or in bad. Look for the deal that makes sense to you.

This may be a dumb question, but when the article says "Prices, which have already fallen 21.7% to a median of $375,000, are expected to fall 17.4% by June 2011." it means prices are expected to decline another 17.4% from where we are NOW, not from the same starting point as the 21.7% decrease already done, correct? Or am I reading this the wrong way? Back to lurking...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA

Wayne, NJ is back! 30% reductions are here!

Too bad has no idea what the true market is for good buildings in Manhattan. Keep going steve, this thread is hilarious.

"In GV and Chelsea (markets with which I am most familiar) I have not seen 30% decrease in studios, one-bdrms, and true two bd-rms across the board in good buildings. Comps within buildings aren't reflecting this large a claimed reduction. There are some such sales that are 30% off "asking" price, but asking price isn't really much of a gauge--much better measure is prior sales of similar units."

KW, same goes for the UWS.

JuiceMan: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA. Wayne, NJ is back! 30% reductions are here!"

"Since peaking in the first half of 2008, Manhattan apartment prices have fallen an average of 25 percent to 30 percent.

"About 20 percentage points of the 25-to-30 percent drop can be sourced to the months after September, said Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive of Miller Samuel appraisers and the author of the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview quarterly report.

"Other once-hot U.S. housing markets have seen prices fall by more than 50 percent.

"We're not done yet," Miller said."

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5910MA20091002

"Keep going steve, this thread is hilarious."

Keep this going, Juicy: cite your sources! Mine is Jonathan Miller himself.

New York City is still wrestling with a Wall Street that is trying to reinvent itself, a disproportionate number of layoffs of high-wage earners and new condominium construction.

"There's a lot of unwinding to go," Miller said. "We're moving toward stabilization but we have a ways to go."

Here's a nice 26% reduction, Juicy, with more to go:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/356057-condo-325-west-13th-street-west-village-new-york

Now of course your argument is that that wasn't the sale price, but the "asking price." Which, though, is presumably based on "comps," which are sale prices, right?

Unless you claim that comps don't matter...?

"but the "asking price." Which, though, is presumably based on "comps," which are sale prices, right?
Unless you claim that comps don't matter...?"

Come on Steve, that's quite a stretch. Comps do matter, but asking prices are sometimes ludicrous and completely unrelated, therefore completely inadmissible in the court of Streeteasy.

UWSmybroker, the Avonova example was perfectly appropriate: it didn't reference asking price but rather sale price. Somebody bought an apt. there for 1,750,000 in early 2008 and had to sell it on Feb 2009 for 1,335,000 which means that the guy suffered a 415,000 haircut which is 23.7%

LMAO steve. That's exactly what I'm talking about. New devs are getting killed and this would show as a huge drop in any database. This thing started at over $2000 psft. What a joke!

Find me something in a solid neighborhood, not new dev, 3 bed or less, that has dropped 30%. Please steve, show me all of these discounts! hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhah

JuiceMan: "About 20 percentage points of the 25-to-30 percent drop can be sourced to the months after September, said Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive of Miller Samuel appraisers and the author of the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview quarterly report."

Now you don't believe him?

What you're asking for is to find the unfindable datapoint: that ONE apartment that may have sold for one price in 2008 and then flipped for 30% less in 2009. The market is not liquid enough to find that. I just used your median price, as you liked in the past when it "proved" your point, now you want to go back to the Case-Shiller system, which you've rejected.

Poor Juicy!

thanks, VillageBrownie.

I believe the data steve, but I'm not seeing these type of discounts on properties outside of new developments (looks like there are a few others on this thread that agree with me). If you actually went out and looked at property, you would know this. You can't find one property in an established neighborhood that shows a 30% drop from 2007 comps? hahhaahhahaahahahahahaha

"The market is not liquid enough to find that."

LMAO steve. If this is true (which I believe it is) then the market is not liquid enough to say the there has been a 30% correction! Oh steve, you are priceless! Think before you type!

Check out "coop" sales in the data tab of Jonathan Miller's site. I look at coops, in particular, because these are virtually all "old" properties. New developments are all condos.

Coop price per square foot in Manhattan is down 25% from its 2Q2008 high.

Topper, I think that is average price per square ft, prefer to look at median price per square ft, however Miller Samuel doesn't have that option in the data section. If you look at Median sales price, Q2 2008 to Q3 2009 down 18%. If you look at Q2 2008 to Q2 2009 it is down 16%.

"how exactly have prices fallen between 25 -30 % in manhattan? Are you seeing that 1 mil apartment selling for 700k? or that 500k studio going for 350k? i am not. maybe some badly overpriced walk ups. yes, the luxury market has taken a big hit. but most people arent buying 6 mill dollar apartments.
I live in chelsea, and i am not seeing much of a discount on apartments. "
"yes maybe on 43th and 10th, or 49th and 1st you are finding discounts. and probably in not so great buildings. but anything that is remotely nice is not selling at a 30% discount.
a lot of these apartments in old nasty buildings should not have been selling for such high prices to begin with. but we had a bubble, and everything was selling. now they are back to reality. but i am not seeing luxury doorman buildings offer a 30% discount. "

ekartash, you are protesting waaaay too much about this to sound believable. There are specific threads noting hundreds of these examples over the past few months.

Furthermore, urban digs actually covered the drops by category. Its actually the lower end stuff thats doing a little better, the larger and more quality stuff is having a harder time selling.

He actually noted that 3 & 4 bedrooms were done 30-40% (vs. studios and 1 that were down less than the overall median).

"I believe the data steve, but I'm not seeing these type of discounts on properties outside of new developments (looks like there are a few others on this thread that agree with me). "

Yes, you and the other guy who wouldn't look at the comps.

I guess if you don't actually look at the facts, you won't "see it".

------------
JuiceMan: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA. Wayne, NJ is back! 30% reductions are here!"
"Since peaking in the first half of 2008, Manhattan apartment prices have fallen an average of 25 percent to 30 percent.
"About 20 percentage points of the 25-to-30 percent drop can be sourced to the months after September, said Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive of Miller Samuel appraisers and the author of the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview quarterly report.
"Other once-hot U.S. housing markets have seen prices fall by more than 50 percent.
"We're not done yet," Miller said."
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5910MA20091002
"Keep going steve, this thread is hilarious."
Keep this going, Juicy: cite your sources! Mine is Jonathan Miller himself.
New York City is still wrestling with a Wall Street that is trying to reinvent itself, a disproportionate number of layoffs of high-wage earners and new condominium construction.
"There's a lot of unwinding to go," Miller said. "We're moving toward stabilization but we have a ways to go."
------------

Good overview, steve. It is funny how great a length someone will go to not admit they were wrong. Juice is starting to sound like alpo.

nyc10022 (aka steve's big brother), have you looked at the data on Miller Samuel's site? As usual, you like to comment, but never bring any facts to the table. Look at the data, tell me if what you see is different than what I posted above.

Actually, I was the one who posted most of the miller samuel data in the first place when it came out, including the fall of the median psf to under $1000 psf. I was also the one who posted Miller's "we're not done yet".

You are the one who is a little late to the party finding these things out.
But still not sure how this makes any of your pre-crash predictions anything other than horribly wrong.

Of course, I understand this is why you still like to mention Wayne, NJ a lot.

Last month, the media said we reached the bottom and we were in a secondary housing boom.

"Actually, I was the one who posted most of the miller samuel data in the first place when it came out"

Before it came out even!

bjw2103,

Grow up, always looking for a debate.

Just having a little fun, mutombo. By the way, you've still got mail.

bj2103, the brut knows what fun is? You don't have any money for stamps, all of your salary goes towards your overpriced W'Burg condo, therefore I can't have any mail from you HaHaHa.

I'm sorry to hear you pay for your email - you got taken!

Don't feel sorry I pay for email, I feel sorry you want celebrities to say their moving to W'Burg to increase W'Burg property value - you got taken!

Now its time for a breakdown
Never gonna get it
never gonna get it
never gonna get it
no no no nooooo.

Nice, you're making stuff up! Good to see you're still clueless!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pwOiC8aJrs
(Yep, that IS Dennis Miller)

mutombonyc...last month that was 'the man' talking.
These days who can you trust? Not 'the man'. 'the man' openly admits that he works to create a rosey picture b/c a good deal of what you see is preception. 'the man' believes that if you think it's good...it's good. 'the man' knows that the money in your pocket is really just paper and the money in you bank accounts is even less than paper. 'the man' wants...no, needs you to believe! Needs you to believe that the money has value, needs you to believe that it's getting better, needs you to spend what's left of your money. 'the man' already has it all, all the money and all the riches. He took it from you while you were out spending the money you took out of your house at the Mall. 'the man' has duped you and you're too proud to admit it. 'the man' knows that the future of this country is in question. RE prices in this town are just take'in a little breather before they head back down the rest of the mountain of faux hopes.

fight the power

more power to you steve

bjw2103,

I made up stuff like you made up stuff, it makes the world go round. I can tell you were concerned about me and its good to see your still delusional.

falcogold,

LOL.

Spoken like a true wackjob (so yes, I am concerned for your wellbeing). Oh well.

bjw2103,

For a moment I thought that was you instead of Dennis Miller LOL. Don't Dennis live in W'Burg? bjw2103, do you go to Sea and tacu tacu/lu lu parlor?

bjw2103,

LOL, that was funny.

"In GV and Chelsea (markets with which I am most familiar) I have not seen 30% decrease in studios, one-bdrms, and true two bd-rms across the board in good buildings. Comps within buildings aren't reflecting this large a claimed reduction. There are some such sales that are 30% off "asking" price, but asking price isn't really much of a gauge--much better measure is prior sales of similar units."

Without spending too much time, I just looked at one building that off the top of my head was:
1) In GV
2) A good building (maybe not a "top" building, but certainly not a bad one).
3) A building with a reasonably active history of sales of substantially similar units

and came up with 39 Fifth Ave.

looking at sales:

9B Sold $900,000 05/28/2009 (recent reno)
7B Sold $1,299,000 04/30/2008 (recent reno)
12B Sold $1,110,037 03/05/2008 (needed work/sponsor unit)
5C Sold $1,200,000 03/03/2008 (good condition, but no recent reno)
5D Sold $1,250,000 02/27/2008 (good condition, but no recent reno)

3C C/S ASK $899,000 (needs work/sponsor unit))

in addition, 5CD, which was bought as separate units in feb/march 08 for $2,450,000 and then had a decent amount of money dumped into asked $3,495,000 and got $2,915,000 08/27/2009 (but nothing in building to comp it to).

30yrs - they didn't lose their shirts, after buying at the peak - and it went to contract pretty quickly at 20% under ask - which is fairly standard now, no?

In Chelsea, 155 West 20th street

4G sold $650,000 07/08/2009 (very good but no kitchen reno)
6G sold $895,000 02/09/2007 (recent reno)

For the record, Miller Samuel Quarterly data on GV Coops, with Percent of Price from Peak.

Qtr,Year Avg PPSF Pct o Peak Median Sale Price Pct of Peak
1Q, 2004 $726 60% $541,000 68%
2Q, 2004 $776 65% $512,000 64%
3Q, 2004 $841 70% $645,000 81%
4Q, 2004 $856 71% $569,000 71%
1Q, 2005 $907 75% $679,000 85%
2Q, 2005 $912 76% $595,000 74%
3Q, 2005 $972 81% $600,000 75%
4Q, 2005 $1,061 88% $699,000 87%
1Q, 2006 $958 80% $657,000 82%
2Q, 2006 $1,022 85% $735,000 92%
3Q, 2006 $1,002 83% $740,000 93%
4Q, 2006 $979 81% $665,000 83%
1Q, 2007 $1,047 87% $670,000 84%
2Q, 2007 $1,047 87% $695,000 87%
3Q, 2007 $1,125 94% $736,000 92%
4Q, 2007 $1,083 90% $757,000 95%
1Q, 2008 $1,168 97% $800,000 100%
2Q, 2008 $1,203 100% $775,000 97%
3Q, 2008 $1,111 92% $764,891 96%
4Q, 2008 $1,081 90% $727,003 91%
1Q, 2009 $976 81% $680,000 85%
2Q, 2009 $1,057 88% $830,000 104%
3Q, 2009 $917 76% $575,000 72%

For those of you who thought my Avonova post was inappropriate and don't believe new development counts in the downturn, may I please refer you to bubble progression in Miami, Phoenix, Las Vegas,etc. It was the new development that hosed the banks, which in turn stopped lending, causing stable neighborhoods to crater.

New developments are the exact tell. It also tells whether foreigners are buying. This time around the overseas buyers may not want to jump in because they all know someone who got burned and those who were counting on making a fortune when the dollar recovers may be wondering if the dollar will ever recover. Yes all the new developments are overpriced. And when the first desperate buyers have to sell they will set true comps for the building -- at seriously discounted prices. And then when the thousands of other buyers realize they are underwater, they will either never leave (so there goes the cycle of upward movement) or if they sell at a tremendous loss, they will become permanent renters -- putting further pressure on the market.

For the record, Miller Samuel data on Chelsea Coops
I'm putting the two data sets end to end to make it easier to read this time

Qtr,Year AvgPPSF Percent of Peak

1Q, 2004 $669 54%
2Q, 2004 $734 59%
3Q, 2004 $721 58%
4Q, 2004 $749 60%
1Q, 2005 $802 65%
2Q, 2005 $862 69%
3Q, 2005 $953 77%
4Q, 2005 $898 72%
1Q, 2006 $905 73%
2Q, 2006 $939 76%
3Q, 2006 $903 73%
4Q, 2006 $915 74%
1Q, 2007 $1,007 81%
2Q, 2007 $987 80%
3Q, 2007 $1,030 83%
4Q, 2007 $1,241 100%
1Q, 2008 $1,134 91%
2Q, 2008 $1,177 95%
3Q, 2008 $1,096 88%
4Q, 2008 $1,099 89%
1Q, 2009 $996 80%
2Q, 2009 $965 78%
3Q, 2009 $919 74%

Qtr,Year Median Sale Price Percent of Peak
1Q, 2004 $454,000 55%
2Q, 2004 $449,000 55%
3Q, 2004 $399,000 49%
4Q, 2004 $584,000 71%
1Q, 2005 $645,000 79%
2Q, 2005 $550,000 67%
3Q, 2005 $575,000 70%
4Q, 2005 $525,000 64%
1Q, 2006 $700,000 85%
2Q, 2006 $565,000 69%
3Q, 2006 $530,000 65%
4Q, 2006 $599,000 73%
1Q, 2007 $669,000 82%
2Q, 2007 $699,000 85%
3Q, 2007 $687,318 84%
4Q, 2007 $715,000 87%
1Q, 2008 $787,107 96%
2Q, 2008 $762,500 93%
3Q, 2008 $725,000 89%
4Q, 2008 $819,000 100%
1Q, 2009 $579,000 71%
2Q, 2009 $625,000 76%
3Q, 2009 $650,000 79%

30 5th, no idea as to quality of building.

10G sold for $1.45mm 04/08
15G sold for $950k 10/15/09

AR: "A" or maybe "A-" building.

sisyphean: I think 2Q, 2009 $1,057 88% $830,000 104% pretty much invalidates the quality of the analysis. From where I sit, it looks like it puts the reasonable tolerance limits at like +/- 15% or more (maybe as high as 25% or 30% even?.

30yrs,

As for 2Q, 2009 Median Sales in GV. It seems to be mostly a function of the mix for that particular quarter.

The average percentage of Co-ops sold in a Quarter (for this series) that are 2 bedrooms or larger is 30.4%

The range is 21.8% to 40.4%. The max happens to be 2Q, 2009.

Note that PPSF is lower because it controls for the size of the Co-op.

It's pretty funny that we continue to debate this, if engaging SteveF and Juicy can be called debating. So I'll go back to an example that I've posted several times:

444 E 86th Street, very standard non-prime UES building with average maintenance. Has tons of big Jr4's converted to 2/2. Several of them (32F, 19A, 9F) sold for over 1M at the peak of the bubble. Right now, 5 apts with identical layout, some high floors, some good condition, some both, are in contract with asking prices between 700K-795K, which guarantees very steep drops. Moreover, the highest ever sale (9F in 2007 for 1.1 M) and the lowest priced apt. currently in contract (6F for 700K) are so similar in regards to the basics that the 37% drop, assuming that 6F sells at ask, is brutal. And I've seen 6F: it's in good condition.

So, Juicy: where's your data?

> Before it came out even!

Wow, here he is, the hypocrite sniffing my ass yet again...

BJW, don't you have a life of your own? Why do you need to follow me around?

Except that I posted to this thread before you even showed up, so nice theory while it lasted. And weren't you the one sniffing my shorts just a few days ago? Hypocrisy, thy ZIP code is 10022!

Where are the deflation knuckle-heads?

Year to Date:

Fuels
Crude oil..... 78.5
Ethanol (gal.)..... 16.5%
Heating oil (gal.)..... 45.6
Natural gas.....-14.0
Unleaded gas..... 96.8

Metals
Gold..... 19.7
Silver..... 56.3
Platinum..... 45.1
Copper..... 111.2
Palladium..... 76.9

Agriculture
Cattle..... 0.8
Coffee..... 28.8
Corn.....-5.1
Cotton..... 35.7
Lumber..... 5.1
Orange Juice..... 67.6
Soybeans..... 2.5
Wheat.....-15.3

One thing that could modestly limit the continuing fall in prices is if Congress renews the first-time buyers' credit or even expands it to everyone. Unclear as to what will happen.

On prices, things we had seen in the $1.1mm range are now $850k. Things we looked at in the $2.0mm range are now accessible in the $1.5mm. I dont know why the 25% decline cant be universally agreed upon for discussion sake. Its readily apparent.

Its not just overpriced condos and things on 10th avenue. Its very Alpo esque to shoot down every down 25% comp as 'not prime Manhattan'. I know in Carnegie Hill its dead to right true. Upper West = also true.

Ericho who cares about YTD? How far down from peak are all these commodities? Of course as I ask, I risk dignifying your post in terms of relevance to the price of Manhattan coops. And at risk of re-invoking a prior thread, inflation in globally traded commodities does not need to carry Manhattan rents with it. Be sure to look at the 'YTD' performance of rental markets in Manhattan compared to that list.

So, Juicy: where's your data?

Juicy got nuttin...there are plenty of situations like what you cite trompy..in fact 30yrs put up a similar post re 39 5th AVE...go to any bldg with lotsa comp-able product and you will see the same: down 25-40% from peak, depending on how stupid the peakest purchase closing in 07-08; and how desperate the worst puke-to-date in this fine year for NYRE

it's so pathetic the "talkin position" that goes on with these amphibious bulls=RE investors who can exist underwater for a limited time, who have lived underwater for nearly that limited time, who are starting to gag and retch!!

and they want to cite strong stocks and other "recovering" markets (all ytd of course) as signs that NYRE is strengthening..they've been at it for 2 sad years now

whatever

If Jonathan Miller says prices are down 25-30%, I dont understand how Juicy and the like can laugh HAHAHAHA and get all twitchy. How do you HAHAHAHAHA laugh at a statement from one of the best known appraisers, and then demand to see comp data? Its deranged. Arkham Asylum of Streeteasy.

tromp, that's not good enough. jm wants his perfect apartment to be down 30%. and when it is, undoubtedly he'll come up with some reason it's not perfect after all.

jm, you must not read the comps threads with any care. w81st and others have been posting about declines in classic 6s and 7s for months, some in estate condition, some renovated. recently the declines in new development/conversion comps has been rather exciting, in a morbid way, and because there are so many of them they are much easier to comp. there are a lot of apartments out there that are selling 30% below peak, but i for one will not list something unless i can provide an actual comp in the building, and i'm certain that as a bright individual you are aware that that is not always available. some buildings, particularly the smaller and or the more prestigous, have had very few sales over the years. and, not coincidentally, those are the units you'd be interested in, i think. a bit disingenuous of you, JM.

There is another popular passtime that I have found. People like to pretend the last 15% move to peak didn't happen, so as to sell their apartment at 'a few percent below peak' or rest more assured that they hadn't lost as much. Strangeness all around.

Juicy: "I believe the data steve, but I'm not seeing these type of discounts on properties outside of new developments"

Read: "I believe the data, but I don't believe the data."

"You can't find one property in an established neighborhood that shows a 30% drop from 2007 comps?"

I didn't say that. I said you're looking for a likely nonexistent datapoint that even if I came up with one (and one was come up with) you would have another excuse for it: not in good condition, prior sale an aberration, hahhaahhahaahahahahahaha.

Stevejhx: "The market is not liquid enough to find that."

JuiceMan: "LMAO steve. If this is true (which I believe it is)"

Read: LMAO at something that I believe is true, which contradicts my prior point.

hahhaahhahaahahahahahaha

"the market is not liquid enough to say the there has been a 30% correction!"

Mean price was good enough for Juicy when he purported that it proved his theory. When it doesn't, it's not good enough anymore.

"Oh Juicy, you are priceless! Think before you type!"

The question is, if a known appraiser says the market is down 25-30%, why would Juicy ask fellow posters to go out and find data to prove it to him? Why especially when there are price chop threads through the ass on here already?

A comp from Lenox Hill:

116E63rd, #9D

StreetEasy History
09/29/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Sotheby's International Realty, Inc. at $3,300,000.
11/14/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $3,100,000.
02/02/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $2,900,000.
03/03/2009 Price decreased by 14% to $2,500,000.
07/24/2009 Listing entered contract.
10/21/2009 Re-listed by Sotheby's International Realty, Inc..
10/21/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $2,300,000.

2D sold for $2.395M in Jul-04, then sold for $1.8M in Jun-09; a 25% drop from purchase for the seller and 42% drop from initial Aug-08 list at $3.125M. 3D sold for $3.045M in Sep-08, so was the probable comp for 2D while 3D was in contract. The seller for 9D also seems to have marked against 3D, figuring a higher floor would hold value. Probably now praying that the vintage 2004 mark holds. So at current list 9D is down 24% from a comp 6-floors below, and likely down over 30% had it traded pre-Lehman.

It will be interesting to see where it finally sells.

"Except that I posted to this thread before you even showed up, so nice theory while it lasted. And weren't you the one sniffing my shorts just a few days ago? Hypocrisy, thy ZIP code is 10022!"

And, there you are, STILL responding to my posts.

Dude, get a life of your own, stop following me around.

(and learn what hypocrisy actually means)

seriously, stop humping me.

"If Jonathan Miller says prices are down 25-30%, I dont understand how Juicy and the like can laugh HAHAHAHA and get all twitchy. How do you HAHAHAHAHA laugh at a statement from one of the best known appraisers, and then demand to see comp data? Its deranged. Arkham Asylum of Streeteasy."

Its the two latest bear responses.

"Yaaaaaaawn" and "HAHAHAHAHA" both equal "ok, we had no clue what we were talking about, but we just don't want to admit we were wrong".

"Mean price was good enough for Juicy when he purported that it proved his theory. When it doesn't, it's not good enough anymore."

steve, find one post where I said mean data was acceptable. Find just one. If you can't find one, then everyone will know what everyone already knows......that you are full of doo-doo.

""Yaaaaaaawn" and "HAHAHAHAHA" both equal "ok, we had no clue what we were talking about, but we just don't want to admit we were wrong"."

Did any of you actually look at the data I posted above that was taken from the Miller Samuel website that say co-ops are down 16-18% on a median basis?

And even more in prime, with the data someone else posted right above....

Yes, we've seen it, its just more data that demonstrates your predictions were completely wrong. Why do you keep asking?

Real question is... have YOU seen it?

Are we really now stooping to the difference between -18% and -25%? Let it go. This is just the beginning. Lets argue again later.

What's funny is, I'm pretty sure I called this over a year ago, well before the crash...

that the bears, once proven wrong, would start nitpicking with "well, you said 25%, and its 24%". Seriously. I'm like 99% sure I posted that a couple times....

I think I need to write a book about the rationalization of crashes and lousy financial moves.

We've literally had the longest and deepest recession in our lifetimes (since, yes, the great depression), a mega stock market crash (I believe its in the top 5 ever in %, maybe higher), the biggest housing crash in history (mainly because its the first in history) and beyond 99% of bear prediction drops in Manhattan prices...

and yes, amazingly, we still haven't had one of the huge majority of people who said "this will not happen" even admit they may just possible might could have maybe been a centimeter wrong.

Its is fucking joke. And I am not going to say whether the stock market will fall or not because history has shown it doesnt mean shit relative to real estate.

Yes, I do admit I find it all awful amusing..... the great lengths some will go to to rationalize bad decisions (the scientists say we'll do significantly more to rationalize than to avoid the actual bad decisions).

Plus, the stupidity of crowds.

Juicy: http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5910MA20091002

Where does this support your "co-ops are down 16-18% on a median basis"?

OH! Co-ops! Why don't you narrow your universe even more, like "2nd floor walk-ups between 68th & 69th Street and Columbus Avenue"?

Talk about picking a dataset to "prove" a point.

Maybe you should stick to your Wayne NJ argument.

And yes, Rhino, Manhattan real estate is not correlated to the stock market.

"OH! Co-ops! Why don't you narrow your universe even more, like "2nd floor walk-ups between 68th & 69th Street and Columbus Avenue"?"

If you could read steve you would see that I responded to Topper's comment on co-ops and that's why I sliced the data that way. You have a tough time following simple stuff.

Still waiting for you to show me where I said mean was an acceptable measure. Why can't you find that one post steve? Were you making that up like you do the rest of your posts? Just show me one steve. Why can't you find it?

nyc10022, looking at the data above actually proved I was more correct than originally thought. In late 2007 I predicted that the market wouldn't fall more than 10% in 2008. I was wrong, the market went up went up 10-15% in 2008. With a 20-25% correction from 2008 levels in 2009, where do you think that's puts my prediction of 10% off 2007 levels. hmmmmmmmmmmm

""The market is not liquid enough to find that."

LMAO steve. If this is true (which I believe it is) then the market is not liquid enough to say the there has been a 30% correction! Oh steve, you are priceless! Think before you type!"

steve, can you explain to everyone why the market isn't liquid enough to find one property but it is liquid enough for you to anchor on a 30% correction number? You never did explain this and I think it is worth explaining to all of the interested readers out there.

Also still waiting for where I said mean was an acceptable measure. Why can't you find it steve?

"30yrs,

As for 2Q, 2009 Median Sales in GV. It seems to be mostly a function of the mix for that particular quarter. "

I don't disagree - the point is that it makes the number "fishy". And once you know one number is fishy, you have to wonder about ALL of the numbers derived from the same methodology, as opposed to "well, that one's bad so we'll throw it out, but we LIKE these numbers, so we'll assume the methodology is good on these one's". If the number is skewed (and incorrect) because of the mix in one quarter, why would you assume it isn't in ALL quarters, but the numbers just didn't come out so they didn't "jump out at you" as being obviously wrong?

We get these "answers" like mean, median, etc., but we NEVER hear any "goodness of fit". Every time you see a political poll on TV, don't you see the "plus or minus X percent"? Do we EVER see that on these numbers for NYC Coops and Condos? NO. I think in many cases if you saw the raw data used to come up with some of these numbers (especially when it's a small area and a type of unit which is rare in that area) you would never believe the numbers again.

"30yrs - they didn't lose their shirts, after buying at the peak - and it went to contract pretty quickly at 20% under ask - which is fairly standard now, no?"

sorry I didn't see this when it was originally posted, not ignoring you ph41. I posted that more for "completeness" than anything else. I don't think all that much, in one way or another, can be derived from it. But I thought some would find it relevant and didn't want to hear any complaining that I left out a "significant event" when posting data.

Still waiting for where I said mean was an acceptable measure. Why can't you find it steve?