Williamsburg Units face Depression?

i agree. RE is toast

James82,

Its your opinion, I will go as far as saying your opinion is fact :o).

R U DREAMING?
Did you not see the recent article in New York Mag.?
http://nymag.com/arts/popmusic/features/61854/
This is where it's at!
Step back or be crushed by this steam roller of a neighborhood.
Some day you will wish you had the wisdom to invest is this jewel at that tiny moment in time when the average New Yorker was blind to the potential of this once industrial toxic wasteland.
Who could pass up the 'cherries jubele' of 'hoods.........or ir that cyclohexane I smell?

bjw usually appears within 3 minutes of a post dissing Williamsburg. Where the hell are you, man? . . .

your logic is seductive...but can you explain why , then, the large projects edge and nsp are only discounting about 10 percent or so on their large inventory...?..

Thanks tanker, right here. My take on Williamsburg is pretty realistic - sorry I don't buy into some of the wishful thinking doom-and-gloom that seems so popular on real estate websites. Yeah, there's a lot of inventory and various other issues, but if you think "opinions" like mutombo and falco's are remotely helpful, then I don't know what to tell you.

come on...it's Sunday
Today we will go with witty opinionation instead of education...it's the American way!!!

I think Williamsburgh will be hit hard, but it will manifest itself in other ways: people will no longer be able to afford to shave their faces, or to get proper haircuts and otherwise groom themselves. They will wear old undershirts with advertisements and mottoes on them, instead of well-tailored fashions. Rather than the carefully-chosen accessories that we might expect young persons to adorn themselves with, Williamsburghers will throw any and all rags and doodahs together on their person, becoming in effect human countercharm bracelets.

When will the stimulus programs start working?

Thanks falco. I was afraid "opinionation instead of education" might have died with Lou Dobbs' de-CNNation.

AH -- That was hilarious

There are some very effective drugs on the market for depression. Might work on some of the emo kids in WB too...they might even begin bathing regularly. Wonder if you pump enough Prozac into the RE market if the buildings would start to sell too. Maybe Helicopter Ben can start dropping crates of the stuff into WB...

evnyc, prozac is so old-time. the kids in the 'burgh wouldn't even consider it. you're showing your age.

Ugh. So I am! That's what you get for trying to be funny and cook dinner at the same time... These days it's all Oxycontin and Adderall, not anti-depressants, right?

i think there are some new anti-depressants as well. lexapro? something like that?

pharma never sleeps.

Never indeed. I'm only plugged in enough to know that I'm not on any.

Oh, good, I'm not *completely* out of it. Mayo clinic lists:
* Citalopram (Celexa)
* Escitalopram (Lexapro)
* Fluoxetine (Prozac, Prozac Weekly)
* Fluvoxamine (Luvox, Luvox CR)
* Paroxetine (Paxil, Paxil CR)
* Sertraline (Zoloft)

http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/antidepressants/HQ01069

and Lexipro is indeed second on the list! But 'Zac is there too, as we used to call it affectionately.

I think that the whole RE market is on Ritalin. As a nation, we are giving our kid a drug so it stays tall and focused and serves better the system. Now, when you stop taking it, you sleep for several days...would that be during the next year?

yes, but it's astonishing how quickly they try to move to the new drug. generics and all that.

jim, you keep asking the same question over and over again. the answer is the same. it takes time, particularly with big developers. look for distress, it is showing, and then keep looking some more. the truly awful markets started tanking 4 or more years ago, and still are at around 50% down for many of them, somewhat more for some of them. we only truly started a little over a year ago. patience.

mimi, the ritalin analogy is brilliant. wish i'd thought of it.

Totally, Mimi. And AR. I have no idea what my students or the real estate market are doing drug-wise; I probably don't want to know.

evnyc, i've heard the old-timers still want prozac. sort of like scotch tape was tape, and xerox was copying, they identify prozac with mood improvement.

but it is possibly quite frightening to think not only of what the students think they want, but what they might need.

I prefer running as a cure for depression, myself. Tried the other route many years ago; it didn't last. But maybe it's all about one's comfort zone.

I think my students would probably be more high-achieving if they were the Adderall-addicted types. They think they need all kinds of things to succeed, but if they'd just put down the darn phones and study a bit I think it would get them a lot farther than drugs. Just my age showing, I guess.

AR, yeah I know I am repeating myself, but posts like this also repeat themselves with such dead-certain gloom. I'll try to restrain myself.

jim, no, this is about DRUGS. very unusual thread. as such, kind of fun.

not trying to rain on your parade. but a certain reality is just that. you may not concur without my thoughts, and that doesn't bother me in the slighest. but in the interim, you're not going to get any answers other than those you've already received. and the answers that you might be getting, comps, don't seem to be doing it for you. it's not an easy path. do what you need to do.

without/with, what's the dif?

AR, I don't have a parade, meaning, no set agenda. If prices really fall, I am likely to buy. If they do not fall a lot, I remain too skeptical to buy. It seems by and large nutty to me. still. My kind of sanity gauge is a building I lived in nine years ago (270 west 17th) where asking prices are still almost double what they asked way back them, while the rent is within 10 percent or so. So I do not disagree with your market view,

Re Wmburg, I saw 125 North 10th today. They say 50% closed or in contract. The doorman said they had approximately 60 people visit today (sounds high to me, but who knows). There were four there at 5 when I went. It's a nice place but geez these brokers can be grating. They love the happy-idiot talk about the "zen" feel of the interior courtyard (not a big deal to me), but don't really like actual questions about substantive things, like the guy who viewed with me who asked about financing. Mostly they showed us interior units, which to me are just too close to the other units across the courtyard. Every apartment has bid windows so at night you either close the curtains (into your cave) or you look at, and are looked at, by like a dozen other apartments. One could say this happens in NYC but I've lived in lots of places in NY over the years and never had that problem to that degree. The external units are better in that respect, looking only at some walk-ups across the street. The feel of the place is nice, the finishes good I think. They say prices are now off 20% which has "opened the floodgates."

Just want to share my experiance at an open house today I was looking for 1 bedroom units. I was walking out of the lobby after viewing a unit when a broker stopped me and asked me if Id be intrested in viewing a similar unit on a higher floor. THis was in a building that was finished and sold in 2006. THe unit she showed me was a young couple who had bought in 2006 paid $695k and were now selling for $639K. The other units in the building are selling for low $500,s but there are very few for sale since to sell would mean take a loss. As a broker why list the price so unrealistic when all that will do is just make it sit on the market? And what about the couple selling even if it sells it will be for so much less then they paid..THis is what makes me think we are a long way from the bottom

"My take on Williamsburg is pretty realistic"

bw2103, is still delusional, do you take any prescribed drugs for your delusions?

Nina, you're not wrong. There's a long way down for many units in NYC. However, it seems like some areas are holding up better than others. Can't explain it unless drugs are involved. See above conversation. But also can't pretend it doesn't exist.

Drugs. Sometimes I wish I had done more of them. Kinda innocent in that regard. Actually, scratch that. No good could have come of it. Happy to stick with booze, especially this late in life.

I have pretty much every w'burg and prime greenpoint building listed in my SE page. The past 2 months have seen a significant number go into contract, some price reductions and an increasing number of price increases. We have a mixed picture here. On the one hand we have a vibrant new neighborhood which has a bright future. Some developers are pricing units correctly-$600/sq/ft while others try to ride out the storm. My visits to open houses find them very busy with people eager to buy. Those priced right are flying out the door. I think this puts a floor in. I was hoping for $500/sq/ft but it ain't gonna happen. Interest rates look to remain low(i'm locked in at 4.87%). The only wrinkle is unemployment. Pretty much every economist and the gov't are all predicting slow healing here. The same people predicted the stock market would be moribund for a few years and inflation would soar by year end. Continental Europe and Asia have all come out of recession, again confounding predictions. Are we out of the woods? I think so and one needs to buy when everyone else is scared.

Wannabuy, I don't think everyone is scared. Unemployment isn't the only wrinkle. The same people who predicted the stock market would be moribund and inflation would soar were wrong, I grant you that. For now. However I was hoping for similar declines and now doubt that they will happen, at least within my timeline.

EV: There still is considerable fear out there. Nobody trusts this stock market rally. We've had an historic run off the lows yet the bull/bear ratio still leans heavily bearish, that means we go higher. The past ten years retirement accounts have gone nowhere and many people have moved to cash or treasuries paying essentially zero percent. Gold has soared. People park money in these assets when they are afraid. We have Roubini et al still calling for financial armageddon. Sells books and keeps those eyeballs on CNBC. I am no wild bull by any means but I think we are close to a bottom RE wise. The stock market: we've got room to run yet. I get out when everyone else jumps in i.e. the bull/bear ratio shows too many bulls.

jim, as AR says, and as I've repeated so many times, it's about patience, ignoring the brokers who try to lull you with that kind of spiel (but pay attention when they do occasionally drop worthwhile info), and staying on top of the market. I think you'll be fine in the end. Hang in there.

evnyc, then change your timeline. how can you possibly entertain both notions, that the us may default on its debt (which i do not think will happen) and you will buy property? whatever for? with rents being what they are, and deflation being what it is, where is the fire?

once again, stocks are liquid. they can turn on a dime. real estate is illiquid. this takes years.

AR is correct. RE is illiquid and has only got more so. timelines are important. for all the BS about how you cannot time markets it's amazing how this concept is accepted with regards to RE. assets are assets regardless of liquidity. if one is planning on buying a condo and selling in less than 10 years they should have their head examined.

wannabuy: The one thing that NY RE is beginning to realize, which happened in every other bubble city in the past few years, is that when prices take that first big dip down and the buyers come flocking in for their "deal" they don't realize they are buying into the huge headaches of distressed buildings. New owners feel happy about their 30 -40% cut from top asking and then the distressed "roaches", I call them ,come out. It could be the sponsor does not pay the cc's and owners end up taking out the garbage and changing light bulbs in the halls, they find out how many corners were cut in construction when they realize the vents vent to nowhere, and they find out that the sponsor sold a huge chunk of apartments to get to the "50% sold" to an international university to use as dorm rooms for rowdy exchange students. It happened, in Miami, in Vegas, in San Diego -- it is starting to happen here. Then when all the problems get press, prices take another leg down and suddenly that 30 - 40% doesn't look so good. AR is more than right. There are at least three legs down in any RE bubble. NY has only seen one.

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/45-rector-square-unit-owners-sue-yair-levy-michael-shvo-cooper-square-realty-for-100-million-at-225-rector-place

I vote for Wellbutrin for Williamsberg buyers. Viagra for Williamsberg itself.

Quote Of The Day

"if one is planning on buying a condo and selling in less than 10 years they should have their head examined."

Buying gives you peace of mind.

shopping gives you an instant mood lift. the bigger the purchase, the better. who needs drugs when there's real estate?

I've lived in the burg for years and am looking to buy. James82's concerns are definitely on my mind - it's mind boggling how many buildings are in various states of construction.

But at the same time, for every new construction, I see a new restaurant, store, venue, etc. opening as well, even during the crisis. I don't see that in any other neighborhood.

This Sunday, Bedford Ave was teeming with condo shoppers. Brokers were unprepared for the volume of people. From anecdotal evidence, rents keep going up. All of the stalled buildings around my apartment, desolate for 8 months, have resumed construction.

I'm not sure any of this has to make sense. The city is chaotic, a black hole for money. And the economy is always driven by bubbles.

i like living in the WB. it's great now - tons to do, happy families, and an easy commute. in the long run, developments will get finished and people will move in. if you can find a good deal in an apartment you like, don't over think the whole real estate thing. you'll like living here right now. it's an incredibly vibrant neighborhood.

I had an offer ready to place today, and my first choice and second choice were both taken this weekend!!! I am so annoyed, I read the discussions on this site daily, and decided to make a bid, 40K below asking. Now I have to decide if I want to go to my third choice in the building . It is also tiring reading all the bearish news on this site, which does not reflect reality, at least my reality in terms of what I've experienced trying to buy a place in W'burg! Maybe I'm just in a really competitive part of the market, 1 bedroom near bedford. All I know, is the reality of what I'm experiencing is not reflected on these posts.

lol @ ar.

vis, you don't sound like a very informed buyer.

The glut I predicted is clearly here...

"Maybe I'm just in a really competitive part of the market, 1 bedroom near bedford."

yes, because there is hardly any inventory there.

I don't put much stock in this, but one smug (and poorly founded) self-pat-on-the-back deserves a link to a somewhat dubious report.

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/williamsburg-trumps-other-nabes-in-condo-sales-according-to-november-report-from-the-marketing-directors

the city should take all the empty construction sites littered throughout w'burg and convert them to pocket parks, dog runs and tennis courts!

well, they already started working on making them homeless (or at least low income) shelters...

ooh, ooh, ooh - auctions in the making - that article may be right about golden opportunity in Wmsburg, but not today - when the auctions are well under way