Home Prices May Be Nearing a New Dip

So it's a double dip?

you can't make assumptions for the future based on a 1 month declien after 4 months of increases.

Funny, folks had no problems making assumptions after 1 month of increases....

not to mention, put it in perspective, its after YEARS of decreases.

Hypocrite.

I never made any assumptions after only 1 month of increases. Take in mind that until now, we have had 4 months of icnreases and there is ntohing wrong with making an assumption after 4 months.

but is it not what happens in double dip??
After years of increase we see a sharp decline , followed by a tiny period of sharp increase and a second decrease afterward...I think it's the beginning of the second phase decrease

Home buyers' credit is about to expire and the little pick-up in activity that we saw nationwide is driven by last-minute buyers. Unless this program is renewed, there is an increased likelyhood of an additional dip in prices. Most people outside the real estate and banking industry seem unaware of the 'extend-and-pretend' game that is going on in the commercial real estate sector. Basically US banks are doing largely what their counterparts in Japan did a few years back. We all know how that worked out. More specifically to NYC, there is much real estate coming on line + with the exception of Goldman Sucks bonuses will be low. There will be hiring in 2010, but it it will be only in 2011 that Wall Street will see total compensation resempling the pre-crisis levels. My money is on more downside to NYC real estate prices.

the program was renewed up to May.

Maybe renewed but did not help much the RE..

I missed that one. Ok, some sales may get frontloaded becuse of this. The subsequent drop will be larger, though.

I just realized the homebuyer credit is up to 10% of the home's purchase price for a maximum of $8,000. I do not see this as having a lasting impact for the broader market.

"with the exception of Goldman Sucks bonuses will be low."

I think that there should be a lot of caution with what to expect from WS bonues. There are many more firms than GS that have been telling employees that bonuses will be "significantly" better than they were for 2008. Now, telling people that and following through are certainly two very different things.

I am not suggesting that bonuses will be great or that they will be terrible. What I am saying is that there is more going on behind the scenes right now than at this same point in previous years. Where the bonus numbers end up, how they are structured, who made out like bandits and who got shafted are all going to be foggy until it actually happens and we have hard evidence. I think that there is too much uncertainty to make an estimation right now either way. There will likely be surprises on both sides of the equation.

of course, we'll have an unprecedented amount of that not in cash...

"I just realized the homebuyer credit is up to 10% of the home's purchase price for a maximum of $8,000. I do not see this as having a lasting impact for the broader market."

That is what I have been saying all along. The expiration of the credit will have virtually no impact on our market since prices here are the highest in the country and only an sbsolute foool with no math skills would buy a $500k apt. solely because the govt. gave them $8,000.

TOO FUNNY.

When the index was heading up the past 4 months, the bears think this index is complete BULLSHIT (see the prior 4 months post on Case-Shiller home price index. After showing a small decline this past month, the BEARS are now viewing this index as the holly grail again.

OH MY!

Brilliant post steve. Really great stuff. Now that you have determined what Wayne is doing, what will that mean to Manhattan two years from now?

Too bad I don't know who somewhereelse is, because it seems like the same malarkey posted from 14 other aliases over the past two years.

"When the index was heading up the past 4 months, the bears think this index is complete BULLSHIT (see the prior 4 months post on Case-Shiller home price index. After showing a small decline this past month, the BEARS are now viewing this index as the holly grail again."

Holy grail? Ericho, you obviously can't read. Steve CLEARLY noted we're not talking Manhattan here.

Its the bulls that pulled out the complete hypocrisy on case-shiller, if you actually knew what you were talking about.

"Too bad I don't know who somewhereelse is, because it seems like the same malarkey posted from 14 other aliases over the past two years."

Yes, to the guy who said there would be no decline - right before the biggest decline in history - the truth looks a lot like malarkey.

LOL... Got it...

The latest Case Shiller Index for NY shows that prices remained flat for the month of October (0.0%). So much for the double dip.

hey steve, where are you? If there is a souble dip, then how do you explain the lack of a decrease in pirces for October?

El_P, your stmt only makes sense if time stopped after the October reading... i don't know about your time machine, but mine ticks along like clockwork...

"The latest Case Shiller Index for NY shows that prices remained flat for the month of October (0.0%). So much for the double dip."

alpo, you're an idiot.

EddieWilson, we haven't seen any evidence of your brilliance when compared to Alpine.