I continue to hope that manhattan RE falls in value

so that means the more people out of work for you the better. well you lost. you had your once in a lifetime shot last year. sorry. next!

I have heard many people predicting a W recovery with another dip in RE prices in Manhattan.
I sincerely hope they are wrong and that we are on our way to recovery with people returning to work and spending money.

it was a U recovery, then a V, W, L, square root, T, and now possibly a J recovery. where's vanna when we need her?

hol4- Lol!! Well said!

I'd prefer to rent a vowel please.

I want people to be working and happy and have $$ for themselves..doesnt mean the rest of the country cant prosper if mnahattan RE continues to deflate. I havent missed my opportunity. bonus $$ isnt going to come through like bulls are hoping for so thatll be another leg down.

marco, Manhattan RE is inflating. Inventory going from 11,300 to 8,800 is the only thing deflating.

The one constant is that SteveF's properties will always be part of that inventory #.

yes, because I will never sell. Like Buffet says "Our holding period is forever"

lol...i luv smacking down these bears :)

Yes, that's why SteveF.

Someone want to explain my comment to SteveF?

So far the pattern is very similar to the last crash. Expect it to take several years, with a few up-ticks, before NYC RE hits bottom.

And note, SteveF: Employment rates to not have to get worse in order for housing prices to keep going down. From 1992 to 1997, employment improved, but real estate values went down. Employment is a trailing indicator of the economy, and NY real estate prices are the very last trailing indicator.

Im willing to gamble that we go lower before higher. just my view.

Post87deflation - I don't have any data to back this up but I can't see how this time around things won't happen much quicker, owing to the internet and access to real time property stats.

stay w/ the vanna white theme.. "i'll rent a vowel" nice nice...

yo beatyerputz where've u been?

Sorta agree spinny, will happen faster but not 1 yr....... not 6 yrs.... but not 1 yr....

Spinnaker1: I've been debating that idea a lot lately, and I've taken both sides of the argument at different times. On one hand, there's no doubt that information drives markets toward greater efficiency. On the other hand, the real estate industry is not driven in any determinative way by information. The fundamentals that ultimately define valuations - incomes, wealth, credit, yields on alternative investments, whatever - are what they are. With greater transparency, the Hidden Hand may be less hidden, and it may move a little faster, but it's basically the same hand.

It took 18 months for values to drop 30% in the 90's. I'd say we are way ahead of the curve already.

Spinnaker I tend to agree but the internet speed efficiency is somewhat offset by monetary and credit manipulation going on, and I can't delineate all of that in detail but think there is a lot of wishful accounting going on, with collusion from regulators, in hopes that things won't fall apart further, which benefits some, you might argue,..but hurts many people (for example anyone buying now)

these "w" recovery statement baffle me....can one of you W people give an example or two of something that went down and is now up?...

it's a w without the second slash; and the if there's a fourth slash to be had, its in the distant future.

jim, GDP. doesn't have to go up much, or match previous levels, to go up. and up it did indeed go.

the w statement was made by steph and i took it to be referring specifically to nyc re market, which i have also seen elsewhere (not gdp)

jimse - i took the ststement the same way and in response to your question can't come up with a nyc re example. if the question is broader, the answer is not only gdp but equities, every fixed income instrument known to man, etc., etc.

i see. well people are throwing letters of the alphabet around left and right these days. hard to keep up. but steph wants prices to remain elevated, out of line with fundamentals, and overpriced. so maybe the price increases were but a happy dream.

"thats correct.precisely so that I can purchase something for less."

Me too.

Marco- At least you are honest.

totally honest. Im just lookin for the beat deal possible for my hard earned cash.Im lookin for a place to live in and not to be a land lord. thats the problem wit the bulls on here..RE is a business for them, but they take things personally

"totally honest. Im just lookin for the beat deal possible for my hard earned cash.Im lookin for a place to live in and not to be a land lord. thats the problem wit the bulls on here..RE is a business for them, but they take things personally"

They "take things personally" because, believe it or not, the cash that THEY used to buy their apartments at considerably higher prices was just as "hard earned" as yours.

Sometimes things turn out poorly, Matt. Them's the bones. All one can do is try to make the best decision with the information at hand, and sometimes the outcomes are poor. Knowing what you know now, do you think you made a good decision when you bought? I am not talking about whether or not you made money: I have money-losing positions that I still think were good choices, money-losing decisions that I now think were bad choices.

Stephie off the wall prices have nothing to do with people going back to work. 2007 prices are actually bad for most of the NYC but the very wealthy. It would be much better for most people for prices to become affordable again. Then they should buy instead of rent. You are a broker though - right?

> lol...i luv smacking down these bears :)

SteveF, how would you know?

So far, you're the only one who has ever been smacked.

How does that feel? Have your lips come out your colon yet?

My guess is that most people holding out for a "bottom" will miss the "bottom" and probably purchase about where we are on the way back up. The only difference is that it is easier to find excellent properties when everyone is selling than when buyers return.

Go Bob! There's a collective brilliance to the bears that sometimes blocks out the features of the earth. By the time their argument is won they may all have lost.

I really appreciate those of you who provide thoughtful, reasoned answers. Stevef, you insult everyone's intelligence by assuming that you can make a sweeping statement without any rationale or information to support it, other than saying, pathetically, that you love smacking down the bears. I must have missed your withering smack down. Reasoned discourse is on the wane in the US, but happily many people here recall how to actually discuss and analyze an issue. Many thanks.

Riley,
My comments draw so much hate from the bears(including you) because they hit home. I present the very fear that a bear is trying to suppress and deny. But I just can't take the BS. Sorry if I'm a little blunt but I try to be direct and simplistic. It makes it easier to figure it all out. Riley, look back and read my comments, I pretty much called it correctly. When everyone and their mother were running for cover I was out and about. Inventory from 11,300 to 8,500. Dow from 6000 to 10000. Ya I saw it coming.

spin, said like a guy who recently bought.

"i try to be ... simplistic." steve, you don't need to try.

> My comments draw so much hate from the bears(including you) because they hit home.

They don't draw hate, they draw laughing and pity.

Sorry, dude.

> I present the very fear that a bear is trying to suppress and deny.

No, you present lies and made up "facts". You put out absolute bull.

Its one thing to have a contrarian point of view... its another to be a moron without any factors or logic.

"Stevef, you insult everyone's intelligence by assuming that you can make a sweeping statement without any rationale or information to support it, other than saying, pathetically, that you love smacking down the bears. I must have missed your withering smack down"

Riley, we all missed it. SteveF only thinks it happened because his head is spinning from getting smacked (plus the brain damage)

> "i try to be ... simplistic." steve, you don't need to try.

lol

> When everyone and their mother were running for cover I was out and about. Inventory from 11,300 to
> 8,500. Dow from 6000 to 10000. Ya I saw it coming.

Correction, steve didn't see anything coming, and got smacked in the head.

He mentions dow 6k and 10k, but he bought his apartment when it was at FOURTEEN THOUAND... and then watched it tank.

Did he catch that? Of course not.

He bought when inventory was in the 5ks. Now its still way above that level.

In the end, he can talk about the dow all he wants, prices are 25-30% down since he told people to buy! and they haven't even bounced...

> Ya I saw it coming.

SteveF... you've never seen anything coming except all the smacking...

"My guess is that most people holding out for a "bottom" will miss the "bottom" and probably purchase about where we are on the way back up. The only difference is that it is easier to find excellent properties when everyone is selling than when buyers return."

Arguments like this seem to just be jealousy on the part of folks who didn't wait... mainly because its wrong. Its been proven wrong over and over again.

RE markets don't bounce.... they lag. The small growth after the downturn stops usually lags inflation and everything else.

'87 took FOUR YEARS to see real estate bottom.

I know it might be comforting to the bulls to say "oh yeah, you were right about a crash, but you won't catch it exactly".

But I think thats what one calls...

sour grapes.

"Go Bob! There's a collective brilliance to the bears that sometimes blocks out the features of the earth. By the time their argument is won they may all have lost."

Again, wishful thinking, but one not at all supported by the facts.

aboutready - comment from a gal who just recently invested in her rental kitchen ; )

you're it.

marco_m: "thats correct.precisely so that I can purchase something for less."

"Trulia: High-End Home Price Reductions Set To Accelerate Next Year"

"Other than a brief reprieve this month in discounting, which is likely due to the transition from the first time home buyers tax credit to the new program, listing prices are trending lower, perhaps “chasing” the market."

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?p=6604

Trulia has 80% coverage of the nation. Your hope matches up with their data and trending.

spin, $10k for some cabinets, painting and a refrigerator, adding say $300 a month to three years of a lease or $200 a month to a four year lease, etc. total monthly costs less than $4500/month. down payment + monthly mortgage + maintenance (although assuming you're not subject to the AMT I'll allow for the tax deduction, unlike some here).

assuming that i like my hovel, and i've grown very fond of it, i'd say my bear den isn't a bad decision (oddly the rent is looking rather high here at this very second, but that will likely change). but the bottom line is that we're not likely to retire here, so i have little impetus to buy. enjoy your home.

"aboutready - comment from a gal who just recently invested in her rental kitchen ; )"

Damn, and to think the rest of merely "spend" on our kitchens. What kind of RoR do you expect, AR? What cap rate are you getting on that kitchen? Do you think it's too late for spin and me to get in on that investment?

hell, if i had been investing it would have been smallbone and grohe all the way. we all know the return you get on very highly priced kitchens.

no, i was merely dabbling in renovations, trying to get a sense of how the "real" people live. throwing away some ducats for mere pleasure, gleefully engaging in some discretionary spending, without a care in the world as to return. the birkin bag and jimmy choos don't do it for me, but pan drawers and pull-out pantries are HOT.

wow, crickets from our resident moron steveF.

A moron is one thing. A moron who takes a victory lap for his stupidity... now THAT takes a special moron.