Pre-election luxury market

Why don’t they just give us the closed sales data? Contracts signed is pretty useless. Especially in a time when buyers backing out of deals relatively frequently. I guess some people just need the world to hear them. Also are those contracts for asking price? I bet you if NYC sellers en masse collectively lowered their asking prices 20, 30, 40%, we’d see a lot of contracts signed! Is that a sign of a healthy market?

Well, contract signed is more recent information than the actual closing. Closing data is also available but it becomes stale news but the time it comes out. Realistically, we will need to wait for May/June 2026 publication of Street Easy price index to truly know how the market is doing as the data will start to capture Jan/Feb contracts.

"By the time"

Here is Streeteast Data Dashboard in case you didn't know.

https://streeteasy.com/blog/data-dashboard/[object%20Object]?agg=Total&metric=Inventory&type=Sales&bedrooms=Any%20Bedrooms&property=Any%20Property%20Type&minDate=2010-01-01&maxDate=2025-09-01&area=Flatiron,Brooklyn%20Heights

Looking at the Urban Digs dashboard of closed monthly sales, that level of variation is statistically indistinguishable from noise by itself. If there were other corroborating stats, one could read further into it. But by itself, not really.

Mostly, it makes me think Tim Malone has questionable expectations when he starts by saying “an unexpected surge”.

For the realtor Tim Malone, he is obviously interested in the sale volume increase for the interpretation of "unexpected surge", while for buyer/seller, the price increase is more meaningful.

> Mostly, it makes me think Tim Malone has questionable expectations when he starts by saying “an unexpected surge”.

Ha.. Well Put.
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For the realtor Tim Malone, he is obviously interested in the sale volume increase for the interpretation of "unexpected surge", while for buyer/seller, the price increase is more meaningful.

Then there are states like Texas where you and local tax man would never know what the closing price is and as a result brokers control and manipulate all the information.

"...where you and local tax man would never know what the closing price is..."

This is something I've wondered about: I've seen many real estate contracts (in and out of NYC & NYState) that say "..for $10 and good and valuable consideration...", which I've always assumed is a way to hide the actual sales price from the casual deed reader, and perhaps the tax man -- though in NYC, the Dep't of Finance filing that goes with the closing transaction have transfer taxes that are clearly not based on just $10. Lawyers have advised me against using that wording in transactions I've done, but the why and wherefore of the use has always puzzled me.

I think in Texas, law specifically prohibits disclouse of sale price for the sake of privacy. Local govt suffers the worst as they don't have any recorded prices to go by. Just listings which at the high-end may never be listed. Then everyone with some money hires a certiorari to fight the tax assessment who works for a percentage of reduction. The "non disclosure" mafia continues in the name of "privacy".

Aaron, I'm not a lawyer but it's my understanding that a contract isn't a valid contract unless something of value is exchanged (hence, wedding rings.) In NYC it's tough to hide a sales price, since you can't hide the transfer tax amount and you can just back the sales price out from the taxes. More common to try to veil the identity of the buyer by using a trust or an LLC, although again sometimes you can back that out from seeing who signed the documents and figuring out whose lawyer they are.

Tim Melon and Don Lemon ... can the names be any more generic?

I've had a total of three clients tell me they were pausing their search pending the outcome of the election. Certainly some questions and nervousness from other buyers we're working with.

What are some of the movers and shakers on this board hearing at the proverbial water cooler?

https://housingnotes.com/nyc-wealth-exodus-only-in-headlines-and-hearsay/

The Miller article is equally blunderbuss with the contrarian sentiments he criticizes. No one that has a job and/or an apartment can pick up and leave in a week, much less in mid-school year for those with children. It would be more interesting to know the pickup (if any) of activity in nearby suburb markets. There certainly appears to be an increase in marketing nearby suburban properties in local media.

I would expect the impacts to start more subtle as the examples Keith cites, and see where it goes from there. I remain hopeful that Mandami will be unable to accomplish any of his fiscal agenda, particularly in a gubernatorial election year and given Hochul's vulnerability. As a personal anecdote, I became a renter for the first time in 25 years when I sold my apartment last year as we evaluated where in Manhattan and when to buy a new apartment when the lease is up in 2026. We instead will stay renters, perhaps for the duration, and see where this goes from here. But having been born and lived here for nearly 60 years, I no longer need to work or to be here, and the threads that keep me here are becoming increasingly thin.

Sport, You are right. No one will know the impact in the short-run. Suburbs have already been hot since Covid with prices up 30-50% if you were go by ZHVI charts. Greenwich is one example with no inventory. You can see the charge from a computer not from mobile.

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/45565/greenwich-ct/

Some more.
https://www.zillow.com/home-values/27319/summit-nj/
https://www.zillow.com/home-values/39839/montclair-nj/

Hochul will face a strong challenge from Stefanik and although I’m hoping Stefanik wil win, probably not. I think in order to appease the progressives in her own party she will go further left and I’m not optimistic that she will oppose anything Mamdani wants. She simply has no backbone and wants to at least be sure she can still be the Democratic nominee for governor. As far as the rest of Albany, well they’re just as bad as Mamdani. They’ll pretty much approve everything he wants and increase taxes accordingly to pay for all of it.

>> What are some of the movers and shakers on this board hearing at the proverbial water cooler?

In my circles, there hasn’t been much discussion from NYers. The non-NYers seem to be more interested / concerned. I personally don’t get the mindset of those whose purchase decision, or else stay vs leave NYC decision, would be swayed by this.

In a few years rent caps will turn into apartments that sit vacant and ever higher prices for everyone who didn't get a rent controlled/rent stabilized apartment in time. The moat surrounding Manhattan and all of NYC gets ever deeper.

Personally I find the premise that rent caps yield vacant units to be fundamentally flawed. Essentially the value of a Rent Stabilized building is based on its total cash flow. Anything you do which diminishes that also diminishes the value

I remember looking at rent stabilized increase history ~10 years ago and concluding that it loosely tracked inflation since 1970. Seemed very reasonable and fair to me, despite constant bickering from the various sides.

I looked again today, and for the past ~10 years the owners have gotten a pretty raw deal. Total increases has been 11% over the decade, compared to 37% inflation. Median incomes in New York (state) have gone up 60%.

If we add in the new one (last Adams increase), plus 4 years of Mamdani at 0%, it’ll become 14% over 15 years. Against inflation at something like 60% and median incomes around 100%.

Nada, Appreciate a link to your data.

When I looked ~10 years ago, it was off the NYC website. Wikipedia seems to keep a copy of it. See the “ Rent Guidelines Board Apartment Orders” section:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_regulation_in_New_York

CPI:

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl

NY (state) median incomes:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSNYA646N

This one?
https://rentguidelinesboard.cityofnewyork.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/2024-Apartment-Chart.pdf

Thank you. Around 7-8 years back before the passage of new 2019 law, I looked at a rent stabilized building. Listed cap rate 7% in a low income area. You calculate cap rate properly including amortizing capex. 5.5%. Real catch - expense growth was far outstripping rent increases. One of the reasons was the current real estate taxes were still lower than what city govt could charge and they were increasing slowly to what they could charge. If the govt were to charge what it could right away, future cap rate would drop further. Essentially, one has to do NPV analysis to get the truth.

My conclusion was that city/state govt just wants to leave enough value in the rent stabilized properties for someone to run it privately. May be that value is $300 per sq ft. May be $200 per sqft. Who knows.

What was the cap rate once you accounted for the tax gap closing?

The investment thesis from that era seemed a lowest common denominator combination of general “RE only goes up” excess and deregulation abuse. The abuse kinda feels swung the other way now.

>But having been born and lived here for nearly 60 years, I no longer need to work or to be here, and the threads that keep me here are becoming increasingly thin.

Hmmm

>I think in order to appease the progressives in her own party she will go further left

Eh.

Even Gillibrand is moving back right. People from upstate have a different outlook, even if they are Dems and there's a whole state of people who look differently on the world than New Yorkers (NYCers). Interestingly, I think one of the voting breakdowns was more non-US born citizens voted for Mamdani than natural born citizens.

>I looked again today, and for the past ~10 years the owners have gotten a pretty raw deal. Total increases has been 11% over the decade, compared to 37% inflation. Median incomes in New York (state) have gone up 60%.

I asked AI about doorman salaries in Manhattan:

Total 10-Year Growth (2015-2025):
The annual base salary for a doorman has grown from approximately $45,221 in 2015 to $61,934 in 2025.
This represents a total increase of $16,713 over the decade.
In percentage terms, the wage has grown by approximately 36.9% over the past 10 years.
total increase of approximately 15.6% over the past 5 years.

Nada, Ex J51 abatement, taxes would have to go up by 200% by estimate. Cutting cap rate by 1.5 points. So 5.5% drops to 4%.

1308 and 1314 E Parkway are the properties I looked at but decided to not to waste much time beside understanding the main issue of current cap rates will only worsen over time.

Actual increases seem to be following 30% cap every 5 years more or less.

So 4% long-run cap rate against 5.25% long-run financing, from what I could gather from ~10 years ago. Doesn't sound very compelling on the face of it. Even less so given the operational work, operational risk, regulatory risk, etc.

>> decided to not to waste much time
My ethos for personal investing essentially concludes "no" 99% of the time ;). I sometimes find it interesting to dig into why others are saying "yes" to the 99%, as it can clarify why I'm finding my 1% compelling enough for a "yes".

I wonder if the doorman contract has a built in inflation clause.

stache, the contract is up on the union's website -- as I, not a lawyer, read it, it's wages for Year A, and then wages for Year B, with an additional bump (which is capped) if the CPI is over 6.5%.

They strike every so often, so that's the "resetting" to a fully negotiated wage.

The Cape Rate is easily increased by not overpaying

>>>Interestingly, I think one of the voting breakdowns was more non-US born citizens voted for Mamdani than natural born citizens.

Let me throw out some hypotheses

1) proportion of islamophobic people might be lower among non-US born
2) existing policies are seen as favoring generational wealth, and non-US born have less of that as most have moved to the US with nothing. For example, behavior of some of my colleagues and families on UES is almost trolling me. We are really high income for anywhere in the US except Manhattan, and the Joneses are throwing lavish baby birthday parties where room, food, decor, entertainers and every kid gets a party favor...
3) Mamdani targeted and campaigned heavily in the neighborhoods where non-US born citizens live

Thanks fp. : )

the current contract for the doorman and porters gives them only a three percent increase each year, and they do not have to contribute to the cost of health insurance. Not contributing to the health insurance cost is probably why the union agreed to such a low salary increase. Most doorman work substantial overtime and receive generous tips

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-04/manhattan-luxury-apartment-sales-up-after-zohran-mamdani-win?srnd=homepage-americas

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Sales of luxury homes in Manhattan jumped in November, countering fears that the election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor would drive out wealthy residents.

Buyers signed contracts on 176 homes in Manhattan priced at $4 million or more in November, up 25% from the 141 deals inked the month prior, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman. That included condos at The 74 on the Upper East Side and at 53 West 53rd St. on Billionaires’ Row, which were purchased for roughly $24 million each.

In the leadup to the city’s mayoral race, critics of Mamdani claimed his election could spur an exodus of rich New Yorkers, a critical tax base whose flight would hurt the city’s finances and property market. But one month after Mamdani’s victory, affluent homebuyers seem unfazed. If anything, the recent stock market rally and generous Wall Street bonuses have prompted more wealthy residents to go home-shopping this fall, according to Donna Olshan, president and founder of Olshan Realty.

“There is no Mamdani effect,” she said. “The idea that people would flee New York was overblown. The numbers just aren’t bearing that out.”

Her firm’s luxury market report showed that Manhattan buyers signed contracts for 41 homes priced at $4 million or more in the week of the mayoral election. More than half of those were signed in the days after Mamdani’s victory.

Read More: New York’s Golden Handcuffs: Why the City Has a Special Hold on the Rich

With little new supply in prime neighborhoods like the West Village and the Upper West Side, buyers eager not to miss out are still hunting, said Miki Naftali, the chief executive officer of developer Naftali Group. Sales haven’t stopped at any of Naftali’s new developments across Manhattan, where condos go for anywhere from $3 million to more than $28 million.

“Yes, there is a new mayor, and there are a lot of worries, but our clients are saying, ‘We love New York,’” Naftali said. “There is no slowdown in demand.”

The city’s wealthiest are transacting “in spite of Mamdani,” said Noble Black, a broker at the Corcoran Group. Some remain wary of Mamdani’s proposed taxes on millionaires, but those most concerned have already decamped for lower tax states like Florida. The ones who remain say that they doubt such an ambitious levy will actually happen.
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“The wealthy are bullish on the market and New York in general,” he said. “And if anything, more people are coming back to New York.”