Gold, or Real Estate?

Gold going to be a great short for the nimble trader next few days. DZZ is the triple short etf to play here.

But they're not making any more gold.

err... gold is not made... it is "found"

And there's plenty of it in the world's largest gold mine - the vault under the Federal Reserve in downtown Manhattan.

"gold is not made"

Don't tell that to the real estate alchemists who live on this board.

This is all well and good, but you can't LIVE in gold.

Your housing dollar is your housing dollar, not your "investment" dollar.

He loves only gold,
Only gold.
He loves gold.
He loves only gold,
Only gold.
He loves gold.

>>But they're not making any more gold.<<

They're not making any more land either.

Battery park wasn't created by god. ;)

And of course the moving tectonic plates do create more land e.g. patagonia but not anytime soon in nyc.

or both...

http://blog.english.szczecin.pl/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/wersal3.bmp

Gold mines, my friends.

No they're not. We are.

Where are my fiat currency and housing a hedge against inflation people?

gold obviously

LOL. Gold or real estate is like somebody in 2002 saying "Cisco or Qualcomm??" The answer is: Neither!

Real estate won't be a good investment for the avg person for another decade or more. Though as a place to live, you can't beat real estate. At least until they get that whole space-colony thing going.

Gold is at all time highs, and while I fully expect it to appreciate further over the next decade, it is due for a correction. Silver, which is 70% off its all-time high, is a MUCH better bet if you feel like playing precious metals right now. Given the state of the U.S. budget and the way liberals are passing spending bill after spending bill, buying somethign negatively correlated with the dollar is not a bad idea. But go for silver.

Speaking of the U.S. peso, it is due for a small rally based on technical factors, and after the rally that's a great time to short. Prefer CHF or maybe JPY.

Cisco then jk lol

Tiffany gold for me, baby.

{Manhattan real estate agent.}

gold already corrected some 6-7%...more than I can say for stocks. A measley 7% correction would bring the Dow to around 10000.

that is yet to even happen

"They're not making any more land either."

Tell that to Singaporeans

These long term endpoint statements dont work. Sure, buying and holding Gold for 30 years has sucked. Buying and holding it for 10 years is the best investment you could have made. Buying stocks in 1966 and holding them until 1982 sucked....So did buying a coop in 1988 and selling it in 1998.

The case for gold now is that it has a place because fiat money is under serious question. Govts dont feel comfortable with their reserves.

Real estate is clearly as good an investment over the next ten years as it would have been in 1989.

History suggests that stocks, at the 1998 price in 2010 are a good investment. Problem is that 1998 was a never before seen and maybe never again seen valuation level... At 20x Graham & Dodd P/E...stocks are just ok.

Short term bonds it is...!

I remember the early 90's where the norm for blue chip stocks was a PE ratio of 30.
Then when the madness hit it was 60. I think in bad times you stick to the lower multiples(or in RE lower price to rent ratio) and good times your stuck with a companies growth and market share rise potential (or in RE expansion,air rights,etc).
Of course, who is "blue chip" these days can be mirky.

Gold gets all the glory (filet mignon) but I've always been a fan of blue collar copper (skirt steak).

Gold is a bet against fiat money. Copper is a bet on global growth. Not substitutes really.

I hear ya Rhino but they generally move up an down together, at least for the last 20 years.
You'll see a much bigger copper dip in '09 because of RE but metals tend to travel together.

Really? I'll have to check out a chart. Do you have the issue of roll yield with copper? Thats the other advantage gold seems to have over many other commodities. No negative roll yield.

I am not a frequent trader by any means and that is out of my area of knowledge.
The few times I bought copper, it was long term holding (more than 1 year).
As I am in a business where some products are made of copper, I have dabbled in when I felt it was too low or in for a long term run.

what is roll yield? do you mean cost of carry

I mean if you own a fund based on futures when they sell
near months and buy out months they can lose money. So
yes. It works for you if you are talking about a backwardated
commodity. Or is it contango.

ok we're on the same page...cost of carry is the term btw

Negative roll yield is a term people use as well.

A few additional random thoughts on gold.

Global production has been declining for years with places like South Africa down around 50%.

Major developed nations have about around 30% of their reserves in gold bullion. Emerging market countries, by contrast, have only around 1% of their reserves in gold bullion. Many of them are looking to diversify their foreign exchange holdings rather than be a hostage to the fate of the dollar. When you look at major world currencies it almost seems like an "ugly contest." The dollar has tons of problems. But the Euro is sort of an artificial currency and eurosclerosis remains a problem. The Japanese yen is the currency of a country with massive debt and declining population.

Bottom line: it just seems prudent for emerging market central banks to diversify their reserves. China has added 454 tonnes of gold to its reserves since 2003. India just bought 200 tonnes from the IMF. Gold has been called a "barbarous relic" but will continue to play an important role as long as governments continue to overspend and print paper money.

Word up. And it's acting great on the pullback to the exp50 day average.

Right a relic that has been a store of value for recorded history. What's the history of fiat money about 80 years?