I told you so.

anon3, when the 70-80% happens, then you can come and gloat. You've been repeating this doom and gloom stuff for years now.

and i have been right....

I thought this was a joke but I guess you posted before. So maybe this is an interesting question something that sold at $1 million at the peak you say should go down to $200 to $300000. Obviously new construction is out of this question but what if we picked a building like the ones I was talking about over at 299 West 12th or the neighbor 302. What year was it last at $200?

Not really - I haven't gone back and checked your exact predictions, but 70-80% is laughably off. Do you want a cookie for calling that a lot of real estate in Manhattan was overpriced and due for a correction, year after year, and eventually being right? If you're daft enough to answer yes, I'll politely remind you that it's a cycle, and the whole broken clock thing. Yes, there's always a handful of people who say it only goes up, but on a reasonably smart board such as this one, I think we're well past discussing that. Weren't you claiming there were 2BRs in the west village for $1500 or something? You're way-over-the-top, like HimWhoKnows (and you may be one and the same for all I know), and frankly, most people roll their eyes at that kind of sensationalism.

most people rolled their eyes when I said Manhattan RE was overpriced.....and it was and it still is. It amazes me the denial some people are still in. The market is tanking...unemployment is way up, a ton of shadow inventory out there, very little is actually selling and population is shrinking....high paying jobs are being wiped away every day....taxes are going up...services are going down....rents are going down...RE will go down for many years to come. It is an absolutely TERRIBLE investment right now.

bluegreen....those buildings are laughably overpriced. By the time this is all over they will be at $400-$500/sq. foot, if that....

bluegreen, 6K at 299W12 sold for $1.4M in 2008 and for $200K in 1992.

yup, only 7x as much 16 years later.....insane....we will be back at mid 90s prices eventually.

Rents are much higher than the mid 1990s....and interest rates are much lower. To expect that seems aggressive. -50% peak to trough...-30% from here seems reasonable.... But $65 also seemed conservative on the downside when oil went from $140 to $90.

great thread anon3. I look forward to bumping it next year to laugh at how wrong you were, just as someone did today with himwhoknows' predictions from 2 years ago. The funny thing is that 2 years ago himwhoknows also predicted 70-80% declines. I was just curious: do the 2 of you both smoke the same weed?

"and i have been right...."

right on what? The last prediction you made was that 2 bedrooms in prime Manhattan were under $2k a month. Your only evidence was bogus Craigslist ads.

Wait, alpo, you're complaining about the accuracy of others' predictions? Seriously?

You're the top of the moron pile when it comes to bad predictions.

"It amazes me the denial some people are still in."

I've only denied that prices have fallen 70-80% (ok, also that there are 2BRs in the west village renting for $1500). I just think you paint a very distorted picture - disingenuous at best.

"You're the top of the moron pile when it comes to bad predictions."

Lashing out isn't going to make you any smarter. Or whatever it is you say when people call you a moron.

I agree with Rhino. Incomes are also up considerably since the 90's.

NWT, how much does an associate earn back in 1992? In 2008, a first year associate could earn $200K.

As in a law firm associate? $82K. 2007 might have been $200K. Not 2008 (or 2009), but still more than double 1992.

I predicted awhile ago that we would see $500/sq foot by 2012 - I'm sticking to that prediction. I will buy Manhattan RE when nobody else wants to buy - that's how you invest. Peace.

> somewhereelse, throw in a pot and kettle and a wow

hfs, now I get what the fuss about you is... you're posts are nonsensical.

You need to look up what all those words mean, you clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

nick, the median doubled from 1992 to 2007. That's all the first-years, though, not the big-law NYC types who now start at just under $150K. Don't know what they were getting then.

Re: the $200K one-bedroom at 299W12, $150K would get you a standard prewar one-bedroom around 72nd & WEA, and $275K a two-bedroom.

"big-law NYC types who now start at just under $150K"

Too bad there aren't any 1st years now - nobody is hiring. So the salary might be $150K but nobody is making it b/c everyone has been deferred to the end of 2010 (if they are hired at all).

We can forget about incomes, and assume that rents appropriately track incomes. Yes, bankers still make considerably more then they did in 1997...just not near as much more as apartment costs. That said, we need to adjust for the difference in interest rates....However, even after we do that, we see that the gap between cap rates and mortgage rates is unusually high. If we assume appreciation is the reward of equity holders....and assume therefore in equilibrium cap rates should = mortgage rates...we have another bit to fall. If someone wants to make the argument to me that the relationship between cap rates and mortgage rates should be permanently wider and in favor of mortgage rates...then please do.