manhattan real estate

Well...that's a very good question. I suspect that you may hear people with views all sorts of ways -- that we've hit bottom, that we're nowhere near the bottom, that now is the perfect time, that 6 months, a year, or never might be the perfect time. People a lot smarter than me will probably pop up to tell you that there are signs pointing in every direction (just as there always are), and it's just a question of which signs you think are the most likely indicators of where things are going. But in the end, no one really knows -- we can make educated guesses, but they're still just guesses.

One philosophy is that it's always a good time to buy if there's an apartment out there that's worth it to you to buy -- whether because you can't find the same thing renting, or you find a great deal on a place you love, or you expect to be in the same place for a very long time, or because you just want to buy. It's first and foremost a home, even if it's also an investment.

(A competing philosophy is that no one's happy being underwater on their mortgage, of course...)

Let me check my crystal balls.

A good time to buy is when the cap rate is greater than the mortgage rate and you can stay there for 10+ years.

yes, that would be a good time to buy

Condo prices haven't stabilized....because equilibrium by definition means supply and demand is balanced...and at current prices, supply and demand are clearly not balanced.

the recorded sales all show condo prices dropping

And they will continue to drop. Bottom is a ways off yet despite the broker spin.

Most simply, even without trying to predict the future....condo prices cant bottom until there are fewer of them on the market.

beg to differ on that one Rhino. You are only looking at supply. Should a swell in demand come, you could see a different picture before inventory dwindles. Of course, I am not saying that is going to happen, but it's just part of the picture.

Demand isnt going to drive up prices until there are fewer available... So again, until there are fewer available, the price is not going up. Price follows inventory...it doesnt happen concurrently.

the free fall in the rental market is evidence that there is no demand

We know values and rents can diverge. We know that there are many unsold condos...and more that the developers are hiding.