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china buying up stocks. Is Real Estate next?

Started by Riversider
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
Discussion about
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/02/08/china-stock-picks-are-no-road-map-to-us-domination/ For China watchers expecting some big revelations from China Investment Corp.’s first public disclosure of its U.S. stock portfolio, the filing must be disappointing. CIC’s $9.6 billion of holdings of U.S. stocks represent a plain-vanilla swath of companies rather than a road map for a Chinese take-over of certain U.S. industries.
Response by youngfamily
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 52
Member since: Dec 2009

They've diversified. Which is what smart investors are supposed to do. They love RE, but I wonder if they'll think it's politically too touchy and stay out of it. Remember how the U.S. freaked out when the Japanese bought some key buildings in NYC?

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Response by Riversider
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

True, But they solve that by avoiding marquee properties and staying under key thresholds of u.s. companies.

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Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

"The Standard & Poor%u2019s 500 Index will collapse below its March lows as an expected rebound in economic
growth fails to materialize,"

And tokyo RE was worth like 10x the entire value of the US stock market....

Turns out the Japanese overpaid, too.

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Response by Riversider
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

http://seekingalpha.com/article/187681-china-dumps-u-s-asset-backeds-and-corporates
Dollar-denominated risk assets, including asset-backed securities and corporates, are no longer wanted at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), nor at China’s large commercial banks. The Chinese government has ordered its reserve managers to divest itself of riskier securities and hold only Treasuries and US agency debt with an implicit or explicit government guarantee. This already has been communicated to American securities dealers, according to market participants with direct knowledge of the events.

It is not clear whether China’s motive is simple risk aversion in the wake of a sharp widening of corporate and mortgage spreads during the past two weeks, or whether there also is a political dimension. With the expected termination of the Federal Reserve’s special facility to purchase mortgage-backed securities next month, some asset-backed spreads already have blown out, and the Chinese institutions may simply be trying to get out of the way of a widening. There is some speculation that China’s action has to do with the recent deterioration of US-Chinese relations over arm sales to Taiwan and other issues. That would be an unusual action for the Chinese to take–Beijing does not mix investment and strategic policy–and would be hard to substantiate in any event.

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Response by JohnDoe
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 449
Member since: Apr 2007

My understanding is that there would be strong tax disincentives for the Chinese to invest in real estate. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Investment_in_Real_Property_Tax_Act

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Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

Well, lets just think of the money China has. Given the amount, and the trade imbalance, doesn't it mean that they almost HAVE to be buying EVERYTHING?

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Response by Riversider
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

Gov't can make money worhtless, by over-printing. Harder to do that to real assets...

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Response by jason10006
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009

"Well, lets just think of the money China has. Given the amount, and the trade imbalance, doesn't it mean that they almost HAVE to be buying EVERYTHING?"

If they stopped buying USTs en masse and instead bought stocks and real estate, yeilds on USTs would have to rise dramtically to allow us to fund our huge deficits, which would lead to higher mortgage rates, and lower net present values for all asset classes values on a DCF basis, and thus likely be a net neutral for real estate.

There is no free lunch.

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