For January 2010 "New home sales hit record low" "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of newly built single-family homes unexpectedly fell to a record low in January, according to government data on Wednesday that hinted at potential trouble for the fragile housing market recovery. "The Commerce Department said sales dropped 11.2 percent to a 309,000 unit annual rate, the lowest level since records... [more]
For January 2010
"New home sales hit record low"
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of newly built single-family homes unexpectedly fell to a record low in January, according to government data on Wednesday that hinted at potential trouble for the fragile housing market recovery.
"The Commerce Department said sales dropped 11.2 percent to a 309,000 unit annual rate, the lowest level since records started in January 1963, from an upwardly revised 348,000 in December.
It was the third straight month that new home sales fell and the percentage decline in January was the largest in a year. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected new home sales to increase to a 360,000 unit annual pace from December's previously reported 342,000 units.
Compared to January last year, sales fell 6.1 percent."
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61F2RH20100224[less]
Response by Riversider
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
I'm surprised that people are surprised by this. When the gov't created the tax credit it stole from future sales.
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Response by Riversider
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
It's also rediculous that the gov't has extended tax benefits to encourage builders to build new homes which just winds up competing with existing home sales.
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Response by economistis
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 44
Member since: Oct 2009
New construction is an indicator right? So if we throw money at the indicators the economy will recover!
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Response by Riversider
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
Juking the stats?
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Response by switel
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 303
Member since: Jan 2007
As long as the rent are falling, the sales will need to adjust...
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Response by marco_m
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 2481
Member since: Dec 2008
we have simultaneous deflation in rents and sale prices becuase of significant unemployment. this will not change anytime soon.
New-home sales in May fell from April to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 300,000, the government said Wednesday. That was the slowest sales pace on records dating back to 1963. And it's the largest monthly drop on record. Sales have now sunk 78 percent from their peak in July 2005.
erichooooooooooo
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Only a RE borker and "homeowner" couldn't see this coming....
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Response by pulaski
over 15 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
"Months of supply increased to 8.5 in May from 5.8 April. The all time record was 12.4 months of supply in January 2009. Since the sales rate declined sharply, the months of supply increased - this is still very high (less than 6 months supply is normal). "
"Ignore all the month to previous month comparisons. May was revised down sharply and that makes the increase look significant. Here is the bottom line: this was the worst June for new home sales on record."
"The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 330 thousand. This is an increase from the record low of 267 thousand in May (revised from 300 thousand)."
"The 267 thousand annual sales rate for May is the all time record. This is a very sharp downward revision.
The 330 thousand in June is the worst June on record. With all the gyrations, it is difficult to see what is happening month to month, but overall this was a very weak report. "
When you consider the record foreclosure inventory , this should surprise no one. Any attempt to stimulate new home sales would only interfere with the liquidation of the REO/FORECLSOSURE pipeline.
This also speaks to the utter stupidity of the now expiring housing credit. When 10 out of 10 economists(as long as you exclude the NAR'S chief economist) agree you have to wonder...
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Response by front_porch
over 15 years ago
Posts: 5316
Member since: Mar 2008
You guys realize this is a stat that follows newly built single family homes, right? Since it doesn't include condos, it doesn't seem all that relevant to the Manhattan market.
ali r.
DG Neary Realty
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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
Who suggested otherwise? But thank you for the salient observation.
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Response by Topper
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008
Although Manhattan may be an island, it does have a few connections to the mainland.
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Response by Topper
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008
Although Manhattan fundamentals may (or may not) be OK, I am seeing rising short sales across the river in places like Hoboken. That means rising sales pressure and continuing declining prices.
At some point "some" Manhattanites will say, "Hey, those prices across the river are so much lower than Manhattan that I'm making the move." And then the contagion spreads.
No city is (really) an island.
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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
I don't know Topper. I think there is some risk in the newer Condos, especailly in investor units. But outside of that segment, I don't believe Manhattan will experience short sales and foreclosures in line with the rest of the country. Also NY allows deficiency judgments, so if these people have other assets they are on the hook.
And condos will definitely go after personal assets if someone doesn't pay their common charges to the extent there is insufficient equity in the persons condo unit.
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
@ ali r. /riversider, what a f'king bunch of ninnies... that's akin to saying box office receipts DO NOT affect Hollywood's economy..... where'd you go to hypocrisy/supidity school?
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Response by pulaski
over 15 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
"Sales of U.S. New Homes Unexpectedly Fell to Record Low in July"
"Sales of U.S. new homes unexpectedly dropped in July to the lowest level on record, signaling that even with cheaper prices and reduced borrowing costs the housing market is retreating.
Purchases fell 12 percent from June to an annual pace of 276,000, the weakest since data began in 1963, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median price of $204,000 was the lowest since late 2003. "
"The median price decreased 4.8 percent from July 2009.
Purchases fell in all four regions, led by a 25 percent drop in the West.
The supply of homes at the current sales rate climbed to 9.1 months’ worth from 8 months in June. There were 210,000 new houses on the market at the end of July, the same as the prior month. "
Twenty five thousand new homes sold. That's 500 new homes per state.
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Sunday, the borkers will demand more tax credits. ; ) idiojts.
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Response by Sunday
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1607
Member since: Sep 2009
They can demand all they want, but the chances of the buyer tax credit coming back is probably very low. The government has already switched from 'search and rescue' to 'recovery/salvage' mode by encouraging/supporting short sales. The government already did all it could to 'delay' the inevitable. Anyone who hasn't refinanced, down graded/sold at this point has no one to blame. Same for any bank that has not prepared its balance sheet for a double dip.
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Response by pulaski
about 15 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
Homebuilder Sentiment Remains Unchanged At "Awful"
"Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes held unchanged in September from the previous month's low level of 13 ( )"
"Anything below 50 is bad, so 13 is awful."
"In general, builders haven't seen any reason for improved optimism in market conditions over the past month," noted NAHB Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. "If anything, consumer uncertainty has increased, and builders feel their hands are tied until potential home buyers feel more secure about the job market and economy."
"Single Family Housing Starts increase slightly in August"
"Single-family starts increased 4.3% to 438 thousand in August. This is 22% above the record low in January 2009 (360 thousand)."
"This was above expectations of 550 thousand, mostly because of the volatile multi-family starts. As I've mentioned many times - this low level of starts is good news for the housing market longer term (there are too many housing units already), but bad news for the economy and employment short term."
"New Home Sales: Unchanged from July, Worst August on Record"
"Sales of new single-family houses in August 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 288,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is unchanged (16.7%) from the revised July rate of 288,000 and is 28.9 percent (11.0%) below the August 2009 estimate of 405,000."
"The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 206,000. This represents a supply of 8.6 months at the current sales rate."
"The 288 thousand annual sales rate for August is just above the all time record low in May (282 thousand). This was another very weak report. New home sales are important for the economy and jobs - and this indicates that residential investment will be a sharp drag on GDP in Q3."
And yet, people in NY are still shelling out one thousand dollar a square foot. Boggles the mind...
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Response by ekartash
about 15 years ago
Posts: 364
Member since: Jun 2007
that reports takes in all of the US. you shouldnt compare NY to Toledo.
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Response by ericho75
about 15 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009
"And yet, people in NY are still shelling out one thousand dollar a square foot. Boggles the mind... "
You're seeing it wrong.
Despite one of the worst recession in recent times, prices are HOLDING STRONG.
If and when this ship start to turn around, WATCH OUT.
Major cities around the world have been floating UP for the past 2 years. NYC should be no different.
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Response by pulaski
about 15 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
"Housing Starts increase in September"
"Total housing starts were at 610 thousand (SAAR) in September, up 0.3% from the revised August rate of 608 thousand (revised up from 598 thousand), and up 28% from the all time record low in April 2009 of 477 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959)."
"New Home Sales increased slightly in September, still near record low"
"Sales of new single-family houses in September 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.6 percent (+/-16.9%)* above the revised August rate of 288,000, but is 21.5 percent (+/-13.3%) below the September 2009 estimate of 391,000."
"In September 2010, 24 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). This is a new record low for September."
"Months of supply decreased to 8.0 in September from 8.6 in August. The all time record was 12.4 months of supply in January 2009. This is still high (less than 6 months supply is normal)."
"New home sales are important for the economy and jobs - and this indicates that residential investment will be a sharp drag on GDP in Q3. "
"October Housing Starts Unexpectedly Plunge To 18-Month Low"
"Construction of new U.S. homes sank 11.7% to an annualized rate of 519,000 in October, the lowest level in 18 months, but permits rose slightly, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The last time starts were that low was in April 2009."
I for one am glad to see that new construction remains at paltry levels because clearly there is so much bank-owned, or other property in the foreclosure process that we don't need new construction. You'll always have a base level for people who want something unique, and not every single micro area is overbuilt, but in general, unfortunately it will be a while until we work through that inventory. Obviously sucks for the construction industry, but we have to work through the '00-'07 building orgy.
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Response by NYRENewbie
about 15 years ago
Posts: 591
Member since: Mar 2008
Good phrase: "building orgy."
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Response by pulaski
about 15 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
"Housing Starts increase slightly in November"
"Total housing starts were at 555 thousand (SAAR) in November, up 3.9% from the revised October rate of 534 thousand, and up 16% from the all time record low in April 2009 of 477 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959).
The increase this month was due to single-family starts, but the level is still very low. Single-family starts increased 6.9% to 465 thousand in November. "
"Total housing starts were at 529 thousand (SAAR) in December, down 4.3% from the revised November rate of 553 thousand, and up 11% from the all time record low in April 2009 of 477 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959).
Single-family starts decreased 9.0% to 417 thousand in December - the lowest level since early 2009. "
in case you want to hang your hat on the high permits print--read and weep--imminent law changes caused a race to file--starts number is where the info is and it aint pretty
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Response by pulaski
almost 15 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
"Record Low Housing Completions in 2010"
"This is a key story: there were a record low number of housing completions in 2010, breaking the record set in 2009.
The total for single family, multi-family and manufactured homes (estimated) was 703 thousand units in 2010. That is about 17% below the 844 units completed in 2009 (including manufactured homes). The previous record low was 1.244 million in 1982."
"This doesn't include demolitions that were probably in the 200 to 300 thousand unit range. This suggest the excess supply was reduced in 2010, and will probably be significantly reduced in 2011. Of course this also depends on household formation - and that means jobs."
"The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 329 thousand. This is up from a revised 280 thousand in November."
"Months of supply decreased to 6.9 in December from 8.4 in November. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is still high (less than 6 months supply is normal)."
"The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 284 thousand. This is down from a revised 325 thousand in December."
"Sales of new single-family houses in January 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 284,000 ... This is () 12.6 percent (±11.2%) below the revised December rate of 325,000 and is 18.6 percent (±15.4%) below the January 2010 estimate of 349,000."
"Months of supply increased to 7.9 in January from 7.0 months in December. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is still high (less than 6 months supply is normal)."
Am I reading that right. Down 12.6% but with a margin of error of 11.2%?????
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Response by pulaski
almost 15 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
"These statistics are estimated from sample surveys. They are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of the preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2%) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percent changes shown in the tables. Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 4 months to
establish a trend for new houses sold. Preliminary new home sales figures are subject to revision due to the survey methodology and definitions used. The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a “sale” is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. An estimate of these prior sales is included in the sales figure. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised
about 7 percent. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics."
"New Housing Starts Collapse A Massive 22.5% In February"
"Headline: 479,000 annualized, that's a 22.5% fall on last month.
Estimate: 566,000
Analysis: The 22.5% month-over-month decline in housing starts is bad news, but may seem a little bigger until you take into account that there were only 618,000 starts in the previous month."
"DEUTSCHE BANK: It Will Take Two Years To Sell America's Excess Homes"
"It's is going to take two more years for the excess amount of homes in the U.S. to be sold off, according to Deutsche Bank economists Joseph LaVorgna and Brett Ryan.
Their comments go a long way towards explaining this morning's incredibly weak existing homes sales report, and don't make the future look particularly bright."
"The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 250 thousand. This was down from a revised 301 thousand in January."
"Months of supply increased to 8.9 in February from 7.4 months in January. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is very high (less than 6 months supply is normal)."
"This was a new record low sales rate and well below the consensus forecast of 290 thousand homes sold (SAAR). Another very weak report"
Bullish!!! Especially the part about sales going down 50% (that's right, five-zero) in the north-east YOY. Bullish!!!!!
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Response by pulaski
over 14 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
It's all because of the weather!!
"Here's Proof That February's Disastrous New Home Sales Number Was Just A Weather Issue"
"( ) But it's also obvious that it was a weather issue.
The above chart looks at new home sales over the past few months by region. Look closely and you'll see that the West and South have significantly outperformed the North and Midwest, which had famously horrible Winters. So, rejoice! Things are bad, but they're not quite as bad as you think."
Sales were down YOY in every region and every state. It was not JUST weather.
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Response by pulaski
over 14 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
Jason, you need to get "On The Message" with the industry. There are no problems, things are on a rebound, green shoots are coming up roses, all's well, buy now or be priced out. Seriously.
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Response by Wbottom
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010
cmon jason....
It's like tina says:
"It's not just about the numbers (though in many cases owning makes more financial sense than renting), it's the sensibility."
With all the sensibilty buyers crowding the market you gon be left behind!!!
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Response by Wbottom
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010
the market is hot!!!
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Response by Wbottom
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010
the overpaid teachers are buying...it's a frenzy!!
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Response by pulaski
over 14 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
"New Home Sales in April at 323 Thousand SAAR, Ties Record low for April"
"The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 323 thousand. This was up from a revised 301 thousand in March (revised from 300 thousand)."
"Months of supply decreased to 6.5 in April from 7.2 months in March. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is still higher than normal (less than 6 months supply is normal)."
"The record low for April was 32 thousand in both 1982 and 2009 - and now 2011. The high was 116 thousand in 2005.
Although above the consensus forecast of 300 thousand, this ties the record low for April - and new home sales have averaged only 298 thousand SAAR over the last 12 months ... moving sideways at a very low level."
"Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000. This is 3.5 percent (±12.4%)* above the revised April estimate of 541,000, but is 3.4 percent (±8.7%)* below the May 2010 rate of 580,000.
Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 419,000; this is 3.7 percent (±9.5%)* above the revised April figure of 404,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 134,000."
"( ) housing starts have mostly been moving sideways for over two years - with slight ups and downs due to the home buyer tax credit."
"Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000. This is 14.6 percent (±10 9%) above the revised May estimate of 549,000 and is 16.7 percent (±11.8%) above the June 2010 rate of 539,000."
"This was above expectations of 575 thousand starts in June. Multi-family starts are increasing in 2011 - although from a very low level. This is one of the bright spots for construction and the economy this year."
pulaski-- Jason, you need to get "On The Message" with the industry. There are no problems, things are on a rebound, green shoots are coming up roses, all's well, buy now or be priced out. Seriously.
do you really think you will be priced out of this market? really? come on?
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Response by pulaski
about 14 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
"Housing Starts decline in August"
"( ) housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 571,000. This is 5.0 percent (±10 6%)* below the revised July estimate of 601,000 and is 5.8 percent (±12.0%)* below the August 2010 rate of 606,000.
Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 417,000; this is 1.4 percent (±10.3%)* below the revised July figure of 423,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 148,000."
"This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing starts have been mostly moving sideways for about two years and a half years - with slight ups and downs due to the home buyer tax credit."
"Average New House Price Drops To Lowest Since 2003"
"Today's new annualized home sales print was 307k, below expectations of 315k (yet oddly better than last month's downward revised which moved from 313k to 303k, wink wink nudge nudge Census bureau). This is not to be confused with the actual number of houses sold which came at a whopping 25k, and the third month in a row in which under 500 homes sold in the over $750,000 category. Yet the most notable data point was the average new house sale price which dropped to $242,300. This is the lowest price since 2003!"
"Housing Starts Surge Entirely Due To Year End Channel-Stuffed Multi-Family Units"
"Once again the US Department of Truth succeeds in fooling the algos: today's November Housing Starts number was a blockbuster: at 685K annualized units, it came higher than the highest estimate (range was 600K to 655K), and certainly higher than the average estimate of 635K. It was obviously higher than the downward revised previous number of 627K. All great: housing soaring, employment must be back. Right? Wrong. One peek under the covers shows where all the "growth" comes from - the entirety of the surge was due to the absolutely hollow 5+ multi-family units which jumped by a whopping 25% sequentially, and which as everyone in the industry knows are nothing but inventory padding by homebuilders who "build just to build." Unfortunately, as the all important 1 Unit structure trendline shows, there is absolutely no improvement in this critical series."
hmmmm..would the 25.3% jump in multi vs 2.3% for singles be due to the fact that renting will be the vehicle of choice for the near and medium future ??? keep in mind the popultaion is still growing. ur boy zero hedge really is a ninny
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Response by Wbottom
almost 14 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010
i like zero hedge--he breaks good stuff--the whole rehypothecation story got legs with him--i like his kyle bass reporting--i can think of shittier self-appointed pundits, that's for sure
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Response by marco_m
almost 14 years ago
Posts: 2481
Member since: Dec 2008
How does he substantiate this "build to build " mentality that "everyone in the industry " knows about ? To me it makes sense that the current job market and lending environment would lead to a greater demand for multi family units.
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Response by pulaski
almost 14 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
"2011 New Home Sales Fall To Record Low, Median New Home Price At Lowest Since October 2010"
"Looks like the earlier analysis that the US is slowly morphing into a second Japan just got even more confirmation. According to the Census Bureau (not NAR data, which we will hence ignore completely due to its consistent bias, error and overall worthlessness) December New Home Sales declined from 321K to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 307K in December, on expectations of a rise to 321K from last month's revised 315K. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis the US sold a whopping 21K homes, the lowest since January 2011, and on par with the lowest on record.
What is more troubling is that according to Bloomberg, the 2011 number of 302K sales is the lowest on record. Of these 21K, 5K were not even started.
So much for that housing recovery.
And also confirming that there is not even a glimmer of hope for the US housing market is that the Median Price for new homes just dropped from $215,700 to $210,300, which is the lowest median price since October 2010.
Goose stepping. Goose stepping. One two one two. Just follow mr Yun to your own demise.
Residential RE is a dead asset. Long live Lawrence Yun.
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Response by pulaski
over 13 years ago
Posts: 824
Member since: Mar 2009
"Spot The Housing Bottom: New Homes For Sale Drop To Lowest Ever; Average New Home Price Plunges To 2012 Lows"
"Looking at the headline number in the just released New Home Sales data one would be left with the impression that the tepid "recovery" in housing may be chugging along: after all with a seasonally adjusted annualized 372,000 new homes sold in July, this was an improvement to the revised 359K in June (ignoring that the US housing market at best continues to drag along the bottom). This impression, however, promptly changes when one looks at the underlying data. The reality: the actual number of new homes sold in July was 34,000, the same as in June, and the lowest since March.
Of this, a massive 3,000 (yes, three thousand) homes were sold in the Northeast in the entire month.
Where things get worse is when one looks at the number of new homes for sale. At 142,000 (of which just 38,000 actually completed), this was the lowest number. EVER."
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I'm surprised that people are surprised by this. When the gov't created the tax credit it stole from future sales.
It's also rediculous that the gov't has extended tax benefits to encourage builders to build new homes which just winds up competing with existing home sales.
New construction is an indicator right? So if we throw money at the indicators the economy will recover!
Juking the stats?
As long as the rent are falling, the sales will need to adjust...
we have simultaneous deflation in rents and sale prices becuase of significant unemployment. this will not change anytime soon.
Existing home sales down for Jan as well.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/18812-existing-home-sales
"February New Home Sales: Worst. Month. Ever."
"Seasonally adjusted, this was the worst month of all time. Ever. We're talking 6% worse than January of 2009."
http://www.businessinsider.com/guess-what-february-was-the-worst-month-in-history-for-new-home-sales-2010-3
ouch.
and manhattan is years behind...
probably the saddest thing i read today was that california extended their housing tax credit.. they really are helpless over there
I think this article is the saddest thing I read today. I was already in a negative/bear mood....now its worse!
http://www.businessinsider.com/20-reasons-why-the-us-economy-is-dying-and-is-simply-not-going-to-recover-2010-2
Existing home sales down as well.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/18812-existing-home-sales
"April New Home Sales Beat Expectations By A Mile"
"April new home sales rose by a seasonally-adjusted rate of 504,000 vs. an expected increase of just 425,000."
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-home-sales-2010-5
Let's see if this keeps up after the $8K is withdrawn.
"New Home Sales Suffer Enormous Collapse"
"May new residential home sales were just 300,000 vs. 423,000 expected according to Fact Set consensus.
It's actually the worst number we've seen yet"
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-home-sales-2010-6
Useless "perma-bear" info:
New-home sales in May fell from April to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 300,000, the government said Wednesday. That was the slowest sales pace on records dating back to 1963. And it's the largest monthly drop on record. Sales have now sunk 78 percent from their peak in July 2005.
erichooooooooooo
Only a RE borker and "homeowner" couldn't see this coming....
"Months of supply increased to 8.5 in May from 5.8 April. The all time record was 12.4 months of supply in January 2009. Since the sales rate declined sharply, the months of supply increased - this is still very high (less than 6 months supply is normal). "
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/new-home-sales-collapse-to-record-low.html
"New Home Sales: Worst June on Record"
"Ignore all the month to previous month comparisons. May was revised down sharply and that makes the increase look significant. Here is the bottom line: this was the worst June for new home sales on record."
"The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 330 thousand. This is an increase from the record low of 267 thousand in May (revised from 300 thousand)."
"The 267 thousand annual sales rate for May is the all time record. This is a very sharp downward revision.
The 330 thousand in June is the worst June on record. With all the gyrations, it is difficult to see what is happening month to month, but overall this was a very weak report. "
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/new-home-sales-worst-june-on-record.html
When you consider the record foreclosure inventory , this should surprise no one. Any attempt to stimulate new home sales would only interfere with the liquidation of the REO/FORECLSOSURE pipeline.
This also speaks to the utter stupidity of the now expiring housing credit. When 10 out of 10 economists(as long as you exclude the NAR'S chief economist) agree you have to wonder...
You guys realize this is a stat that follows newly built single family homes, right? Since it doesn't include condos, it doesn't seem all that relevant to the Manhattan market.
ali r.
DG Neary Realty
Who suggested otherwise? But thank you for the salient observation.
Although Manhattan may be an island, it does have a few connections to the mainland.
Although Manhattan fundamentals may (or may not) be OK, I am seeing rising short sales across the river in places like Hoboken. That means rising sales pressure and continuing declining prices.
At some point "some" Manhattanites will say, "Hey, those prices across the river are so much lower than Manhattan that I'm making the move." And then the contagion spreads.
No city is (really) an island.
I don't know Topper. I think there is some risk in the newer Condos, especailly in investor units. But outside of that segment, I don't believe Manhattan will experience short sales and foreclosures in line with the rest of the country. Also NY allows deficiency judgments, so if these people have other assets they are on the hook.
And condos will definitely go after personal assets if someone doesn't pay their common charges to the extent there is insufficient equity in the persons condo unit.
@ ali r. /riversider, what a f'king bunch of ninnies... that's akin to saying box office receipts DO NOT affect Hollywood's economy..... where'd you go to hypocrisy/supidity school?
"Sales of U.S. New Homes Unexpectedly Fell to Record Low in July"
"Sales of U.S. new homes unexpectedly dropped in July to the lowest level on record, signaling that even with cheaper prices and reduced borrowing costs the housing market is retreating.
Purchases fell 12 percent from June to an annual pace of 276,000, the weakest since data began in 1963, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median price of $204,000 was the lowest since late 2003. "
"The median price decreased 4.8 percent from July 2009.
Purchases fell in all four regions, led by a 25 percent drop in the West.
The supply of homes at the current sales rate climbed to 9.1 months’ worth from 8 months in June. There were 210,000 new houses on the market at the end of July, the same as the prior month. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-25/sales-of-u-s-new-homes-unexpectedly-fell-to-record-low-in-july.html
"Unexpectedly" - oh, main stream media, you amuse me so...
I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
pulaski: "'Unexpectedly' - oh, main stream media, you amuse me so... "
That should really be directed at the economists who made the forecasts.
For both resale and new home sales, the numbers are lower than the most pessimistic forecasts. Let's see how the realtors spin this.
"In July 2010, 25 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). This is a new record low for July.
The previous record low for the month of July was 31 thousand in 1982; the record high was 117 thousand in July 2005."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/new-home-sales-decline-to-record-low-in.html
Twenty five thousand new homes sold. That's 500 new homes per state.
Sunday, the borkers will demand more tax credits. ; ) idiojts.
They can demand all they want, but the chances of the buyer tax credit coming back is probably very low. The government has already switched from 'search and rescue' to 'recovery/salvage' mode by encouraging/supporting short sales. The government already did all it could to 'delay' the inevitable. Anyone who hasn't refinanced, down graded/sold at this point has no one to blame. Same for any bank that has not prepared its balance sheet for a double dip.
Homebuilder Sentiment Remains Unchanged At "Awful"
"Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes held unchanged in September from the previous month's low level of 13 ( )"
"Anything below 50 is bad, so 13 is awful."
"In general, builders haven't seen any reason for improved optimism in market conditions over the past month," noted NAHB Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. "If anything, consumer uncertainty has increased, and builders feel their hands are tied until potential home buyers feel more secure about the job market and economy."
http://www.businessinsider.com/homebuilder-sentiment-september-2010-9
"Single Family Housing Starts increase slightly in August"
"Single-family starts increased 4.3% to 438 thousand in August. This is 22% above the record low in January 2009 (360 thousand)."
"This was above expectations of 550 thousand, mostly because of the volatile multi-family starts. As I've mentioned many times - this low level of starts is good news for the housing market longer term (there are too many housing units already), but bad news for the economy and employment short term."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/single-family-housing-starts-increase.html
"New Home Sales: Unchanged from July, Worst August on Record"
"Sales of new single-family houses in August 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 288,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is unchanged (16.7%) from the revised July rate of 288,000 and is 28.9 percent (11.0%) below the August 2009 estimate of 405,000."
"The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 206,000. This represents a supply of 8.6 months at the current sales rate."
"The 288 thousand annual sales rate for August is just above the all time record low in May (282 thousand). This was another very weak report. New home sales are important for the economy and jobs - and this indicates that residential investment will be a sharp drag on GDP in Q3."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/new-home-sales-unchanged-from-july.html
And yet, people in NY are still shelling out one thousand dollar a square foot. Boggles the mind...
that reports takes in all of the US. you shouldnt compare NY to Toledo.
"And yet, people in NY are still shelling out one thousand dollar a square foot. Boggles the mind... "
You're seeing it wrong.
Despite one of the worst recession in recent times, prices are HOLDING STRONG.
If and when this ship start to turn around, WATCH OUT.
Major cities around the world have been floating UP for the past 2 years. NYC should be no different.
"Housing Starts increase in September"
"Total housing starts were at 610 thousand (SAAR) in September, up 0.3% from the revised August rate of 608 thousand (revised up from 598 thousand), and up 28% from the all time record low in April 2009 of 477 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959)."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/housing-starts-increase-in-september.html
"New Home Sales increased slightly in September, still near record low"
"Sales of new single-family houses in September 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.6 percent (+/-16.9%)* above the revised August rate of 288,000, but is 21.5 percent (+/-13.3%) below the September 2009 estimate of 391,000."
"In September 2010, 24 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). This is a new record low for September."
"Months of supply decreased to 8.0 in September from 8.6 in August. The all time record was 12.4 months of supply in January 2009. This is still high (less than 6 months supply is normal)."
"New home sales are important for the economy and jobs - and this indicates that residential investment will be a sharp drag on GDP in Q3. "
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/new-home-sales-increased-slightly-in.html
"October Housing Starts Unexpectedly Plunge To 18-Month Low"
"Construction of new U.S. homes sank 11.7% to an annualized rate of 519,000 in October, the lowest level in 18 months, but permits rose slightly, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The last time starts were that low was in April 2009."
http://www.businessinsider.com/october-housing-starts-2010-11
"Unexpectedly"
I for one am glad to see that new construction remains at paltry levels because clearly there is so much bank-owned, or other property in the foreclosure process that we don't need new construction. You'll always have a base level for people who want something unique, and not every single micro area is overbuilt, but in general, unfortunately it will be a while until we work through that inventory. Obviously sucks for the construction industry, but we have to work through the '00-'07 building orgy.
Good phrase: "building orgy."
"Housing Starts increase slightly in November"
"Total housing starts were at 555 thousand (SAAR) in November, up 3.9% from the revised October rate of 534 thousand, and up 16% from the all time record low in April 2009 of 477 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959).
The increase this month was due to single-family starts, but the level is still very low. Single-family starts increased 6.9% to 465 thousand in November. "
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/housing-starts-increase-slightly-in.html
"Housing Starts Decline in December"
"Total housing starts were at 529 thousand (SAAR) in December, down 4.3% from the revised November rate of 553 thousand, and up 11% from the all time record low in April 2009 of 477 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959).
Single-family starts decreased 9.0% to 417 thousand in December - the lowest level since early 2009. "
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/housing-starts-decline-in-december.html
in case you want to hang your hat on the high permits print--read and weep--imminent law changes caused a race to file--starts number is where the info is and it aint pretty
"Record Low Housing Completions in 2010"
"This is a key story: there were a record low number of housing completions in 2010, breaking the record set in 2009.
The total for single family, multi-family and manufactured homes (estimated) was 703 thousand units in 2010. That is about 17% below the 844 units completed in 2009 (including manufactured homes). The previous record low was 1.244 million in 1982."
"This doesn't include demolitions that were probably in the 200 to 300 thousand unit range. This suggest the excess supply was reduced in 2010, and will probably be significantly reduced in 2011. Of course this also depends on household formation - and that means jobs."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/record-low-housing-completions-in-2010.html
"New Home Sales increase in December"
"The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 329 thousand. This is up from a revised 280 thousand in November."
"Months of supply decreased to 6.9 in December from 8.4 in November. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is still high (less than 6 months supply is normal)."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/new-home-sales-increase-in-december.html
NHS down 12.6%--waaaay worse than already depressing expectations
means little to NYC real estate
NYC is different--new paradigm type stuff
>NHS down 12.6%--waaaay worse ...
We are proud of you Wtushy. You are very consistent in your ability to post the word "way" with more than one 'a' in the middle.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25411-average-wall-street-bonus-down-9
Wtushy
read deeper re current times--tax revenues based on wall st profits/comp waaaaaaay off vs last year and waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off vs bubblicious 2006
all good for LIC real estate hahahahahaha
"New Home Sales decrease in January"
"The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 284 thousand. This is down from a revised 325 thousand in December."
"Sales of new single-family houses in January 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 284,000 ... This is () 12.6 percent (±11.2%) below the revised December rate of 325,000 and is 18.6 percent (±15.4%) below the January 2010 estimate of 349,000."
"Months of supply increased to 7.9 in January from 7.0 months in December. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is still high (less than 6 months supply is normal)."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/new-home-sales-decrease-in-january.html
Am I reading that right. Down 12.6% but with a margin of error of 11.2%?????
"These statistics are estimated from sample surveys. They are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of the preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2%) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percent changes shown in the tables. Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 4 months to
establish a trend for new houses sold. Preliminary new home sales figures are subject to revision due to the survey methodology and definitions used. The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a “sale” is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. An estimate of these prior sales is included in the sales figure. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised
about 7 percent. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics."
http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf
"New Housing Starts Collapse A Massive 22.5% In February"
"Headline: 479,000 annualized, that's a 22.5% fall on last month.
Estimate: 566,000
Analysis: The 22.5% month-over-month decline in housing starts is bad news, but may seem a little bigger until you take into account that there were only 618,000 starts in the previous month."
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-housing-starts-come-in-at-479000-below-estimates-and-a-big-drop-on-last-month-2011-3
"DEUTSCHE BANK: It Will Take Two Years To Sell America's Excess Homes"
"It's is going to take two more years for the excess amount of homes in the U.S. to be sold off, according to Deutsche Bank economists Joseph LaVorgna and Brett Ryan.
Their comments go a long way towards explaining this morning's incredibly weak existing homes sales report, and don't make the future look particularly bright."
http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-two-years-to-sell-americas-excess-homes-2011-3
"New Home Sales Fall to Record Low in February"
"The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 250 thousand. This was down from a revised 301 thousand in January."
"Months of supply increased to 8.9 in February from 7.4 months in January. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is very high (less than 6 months supply is normal)."
"This was a new record low sales rate and well below the consensus forecast of 290 thousand homes sold (SAAR). Another very weak report"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/03/new-home-sales-fall-to-record-low-in.html
Who cares. Just buy anyway. Consume! Consuuuuume!
Bullish!!! Especially the part about sales going down 50% (that's right, five-zero) in the north-east YOY. Bullish!!!!!
It's all because of the weather!!
"Here's Proof That February's Disastrous New Home Sales Number Was Just A Weather Issue"
"( ) But it's also obvious that it was a weather issue.
The above chart looks at new home sales over the past few months by region. Look closely and you'll see that the West and South have significantly outperformed the North and Midwest, which had famously horrible Winters. So, rejoice! Things are bad, but they're not quite as bad as you think."
http://www.businessinsider.com/february-new-home-sales-by-region-2011-3
Yeah, people: rejoice. Rejoice.
Sales were down YOY in every region and every state. It was not JUST weather.
Jason, you need to get "On The Message" with the industry. There are no problems, things are on a rebound, green shoots are coming up roses, all's well, buy now or be priced out. Seriously.
cmon jason....
It's like tina says:
"It's not just about the numbers (though in many cases owning makes more financial sense than renting), it's the sensibility."
With all the sensibilty buyers crowding the market you gon be left behind!!!
the market is hot!!!
the overpaid teachers are buying...it's a frenzy!!
"New Home Sales in April at 323 Thousand SAAR, Ties Record low for April"
"The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 323 thousand. This was up from a revised 301 thousand in March (revised from 300 thousand)."
"Months of supply decreased to 6.5 in April from 7.2 months in March. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is still higher than normal (less than 6 months supply is normal)."
"The record low for April was 32 thousand in both 1982 and 2009 - and now 2011. The high was 116 thousand in 2005.
Although above the consensus forecast of 300 thousand, this ties the record low for April - and new home sales have averaged only 298 thousand SAAR over the last 12 months ... moving sideways at a very low level."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/new-home-sales-in-april-at-323-thousand.html
pending home sales are dog meat
down 1.6% MOM
down 26.8% YOY!!!!!!
"Housing Starts increase in May"
"Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000. This is 3.5 percent (±12.4%)* above the revised April estimate of 541,000, but is 3.4 percent (±8.7%)* below the May 2010 rate of 580,000.
Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 419,000; this is 3.7 percent (±9.5%)* above the revised April figure of 404,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 134,000."
"( ) housing starts have mostly been moving sideways for over two years - with slight ups and downs due to the home buyer tax credit."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/housing-starts-increase-in-may.html
"Housing Starts increase in June"
"Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000. This is 14.6 percent (±10 9%) above the revised May estimate of 549,000 and is 16.7 percent (±11.8%) above the June 2010 rate of 539,000."
"This was above expectations of 575 thousand starts in June. Multi-family starts are increasing in 2011 - although from a very low level. This is one of the bright spots for construction and the economy this year."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/07/housing-starts-increase-in-june.html
All those once-home-owners and future once-home-owners need to be housed somewhere. Best start building apartments.
"pending home sales are dog meat
down 1.6% MOM
down 26.8% YOY!!!!!!"
Not in these parts they're not. Up 13.2% YoY.
http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Pending+Sales&s2=&mindt=07/19/2010&maxdt=07/19/2011&Update=Update&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=
"MISS: New Home Sales Fall Below 300K"
"Headline: A big miss at 298K seasonally-adjusted annual rate versus 315K expectations. June was revised down 10K to 300K.
2011 is shaping up to be the worst year on record.
Months of supply held steady at 6.6 months."
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-home-sales-july-2011-8
pulaski-- Jason, you need to get "On The Message" with the industry. There are no problems, things are on a rebound, green shoots are coming up roses, all's well, buy now or be priced out. Seriously.
do you really think you will be priced out of this market? really? come on?
"Housing Starts decline in August"
"( ) housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 571,000. This is 5.0 percent (±10 6%)* below the revised July estimate of 601,000 and is 5.8 percent (±12.0%)* below the August 2010 rate of 606,000.
Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 417,000; this is 1.4 percent (±10.3%)* below the revised July figure of 423,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 148,000."
"This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing starts have been mostly moving sideways for about two years and a half years - with slight ups and downs due to the home buyer tax credit."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/housing-starts-decline-in-august.html
"Average New House Price Drops To Lowest Since 2003"
"Today's new annualized home sales print was 307k, below expectations of 315k (yet oddly better than last month's downward revised which moved from 313k to 303k, wink wink nudge nudge Census bureau). This is not to be confused with the actual number of houses sold which came at a whopping 25k, and the third month in a row in which under 500 homes sold in the over $750,000 category. Yet the most notable data point was the average new house sale price which dropped to $242,300. This is the lowest price since 2003!"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/average-new-house-price-drops-lowest-2003
"Housing Starts Surge Entirely Due To Year End Channel-Stuffed Multi-Family Units"
"Once again the US Department of Truth succeeds in fooling the algos: today's November Housing Starts number was a blockbuster: at 685K annualized units, it came higher than the highest estimate (range was 600K to 655K), and certainly higher than the average estimate of 635K. It was obviously higher than the downward revised previous number of 627K. All great: housing soaring, employment must be back. Right? Wrong. One peek under the covers shows where all the "growth" comes from - the entirety of the surge was due to the absolutely hollow 5+ multi-family units which jumped by a whopping 25% sequentially, and which as everyone in the industry knows are nothing but inventory padding by homebuilders who "build just to build." Unfortunately, as the all important 1 Unit structure trendline shows, there is absolutely no improvement in this critical series."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/housing-starts-surge-entirely-due-year-end-channel-stuffed-multi-family-units
hmmmm..would the 25.3% jump in multi vs 2.3% for singles be due to the fact that renting will be the vehicle of choice for the near and medium future ??? keep in mind the popultaion is still growing. ur boy zero hedge really is a ninny
i like zero hedge--he breaks good stuff--the whole rehypothecation story got legs with him--i like his kyle bass reporting--i can think of shittier self-appointed pundits, that's for sure
How does he substantiate this "build to build " mentality that "everyone in the industry " knows about ? To me it makes sense that the current job market and lending environment would lead to a greater demand for multi family units.
"2011 New Home Sales Fall To Record Low, Median New Home Price At Lowest Since October 2010"
"Looks like the earlier analysis that the US is slowly morphing into a second Japan just got even more confirmation. According to the Census Bureau (not NAR data, which we will hence ignore completely due to its consistent bias, error and overall worthlessness) December New Home Sales declined from 321K to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 307K in December, on expectations of a rise to 321K from last month's revised 315K. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis the US sold a whopping 21K homes, the lowest since January 2011, and on par with the lowest on record.
What is more troubling is that according to Bloomberg, the 2011 number of 302K sales is the lowest on record. Of these 21K, 5K were not even started.
So much for that housing recovery.
And also confirming that there is not even a glimmer of hope for the US housing market is that the Median Price for new homes just dropped from $215,700 to $210,300, which is the lowest median price since October 2010.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2011-new-home-sales-fall-record-low-median-new-home-price-lowest-october-2010
Goose stepping. Goose stepping. One two one two. Just follow mr Yun to your own demise.
Residential RE is a dead asset. Long live Lawrence Yun.
"Spot The Housing Bottom: New Homes For Sale Drop To Lowest Ever; Average New Home Price Plunges To 2012 Lows"
"Looking at the headline number in the just released New Home Sales data one would be left with the impression that the tepid "recovery" in housing may be chugging along: after all with a seasonally adjusted annualized 372,000 new homes sold in July, this was an improvement to the revised 359K in June (ignoring that the US housing market at best continues to drag along the bottom). This impression, however, promptly changes when one looks at the underlying data. The reality: the actual number of new homes sold in July was 34,000, the same as in June, and the lowest since March.
Of this, a massive 3,000 (yes, three thousand) homes were sold in the Northeast in the entire month.
Where things get worse is when one looks at the number of new homes for sale. At 142,000 (of which just 38,000 actually completed), this was the lowest number. EVER."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spot-housing-bottom-new-homes-sale-drop-lowest-ever-average-new-home-price-plunges-2012-lows
isnt less new homes for sale bullish for current inventory ?