Existing Home Sales

"Confirmed: Existing Home Sales Drop (Again), Inventory Surging"

"The annualized pace of sales came in at 5.02 million, below the 5.05 million (and basically right on estimates). Inventory surged 9.5%."

http://www.businessinsider.com/confirm-existing-home-sales-drop-again-inventory-surging-2010-3

"Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 2.4 percent to an annual pace of 840,000 in February and are 12.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $254,700, up 7.5 percent from February 2009." But, but... it snowed in the Northeast for most of February! How can that be?

"Existing home sales rose more than expected in March, reversing three months of declines, as government incentives drew in buyers"

"sales of previously occupied homes rose 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million last month, the highest level since December."

"the true test will be whether the market can stand on its own after federal tax credits expire at the end of this month."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36710933

"Existing Home Sales increase in April"

"Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from an upwardly revised 5.36 million in March, and are 22.8 percent higher than the 4.70 million-unit pace in April 2009."

Hooray! :)

"Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 11.5 percent to 4.04 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.1-month supply in March."

Oh, darn... :(

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/05/existing-home-sales-increase-in-april.html

"Check Out The Huge Miss For Existing Home Sales"

"May existing home sales came in at just a seasonally-adjusted 5.66 million vs. 6.1 million expected"

Blame falls on expiring home buyer tax credit and the oil spill.

http://www.businessinsider.com/existing-home-sales-2010-6

Yahoo headline: "May home sales sink 2.2 percent despite help from federal tax credits"

And, as Ritholz points out, this is how the NAR spins it: "May Shows a Continued Strong Pace for Existing-Home Sales"

Classic. Wonder where that reputation comes from?

Wow I didn't see the pullback post tax breaks coming. Flmao

hold on kids..... The ride's about to get a lot scarier.

w67 It sure seems that way. We will have an interesting summer.

The news is that the pullback has started BEFORE the tax breaks ended. People who closed in May (and June) are eligible as long as they signed before April 30. That is reason for the "huge miss" in Pulaski's post. Now cue the inevitable "this doesn't matter to NYC" replies.

A lot of people who were expected to close in May didn't, and will possibly miss the credit altogether, because the banks are slow to approve short sales.

I think NAR (of which I'm a member) is being too positive, but May existing home sales are still up 19% y-o-y from last May.

More here: http://bit.ly/bB7f7Z

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

And every year, existing home sales increase month after month from January to June. Except this year. Near the peak of the selling season, with government incentives at hand, existing home sales fell month over month.

If you can't sell your house with an $8k give away now what do you do to sell it next month? Cut prices or keep waiting.

Or one could argue that the home sales season simply peaked earlier this year, as buyers incentivized by a tax credit went ahead and made their purchases, and now the numbers we're seeing look more like early summer than late spring. My point if you follow the link is that any volume numbers over 5.5 million annualized really aren't bad numbers.

ali

one could argue with a dining table.... but..... but.......

FLMAO.. really really.. .did Larry Yun put out speaking points for borkers?

Let's get this straight.. the entire RE industry (builders, borkers, bankers, closers, titlers, blowers, trannies, fluffers listing picture takers) is based upon bubble earnings (i.e. 6MM units and above), but lookie, it's 5.5MM... so it's not so bad?

FLMAO... it's like a family of 4 working 340 days a year to make sure it can eat mac and cheese... now let's see what kinda cat chow we can buy when we're cut back to 320 days....

Something's gonna give, healthcare?, school?, car?, bus?, clothing.... or maybe maybe.. the HOUSE? i'm gonna peeeeeeeeeeeee

Ali,

I get your first point and agree with it. But if you assume that to be the case, doesn't that undermine the reliability of seasonally adjusted data?

From NAR: "The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months."

malthus, I hear you about the seasonally adjusted data part, I just think that expectations that we were supposed to go over a 6mm rate were a little crazy. It's like there are only two stories, that things are tanking or soaring, and the market's not like that. In most states, real estate has recovered significantly from a year ago, but that's a little too nuanced a story.

w67th I see on another thread that you are going off on vaca, say hi to the turtles for me (or is that turtlez?)

ali r.

i think you need to consider where these expectations begin in the first place. note your own statement, "real estate has recovered significantly from a year ago." that is such a broad generalization, that it becomes useless.

wouldn't it be far more truthful to say, "following a complete standstill a year ago, real estate sales have resumed although it is far too soon to say with any certainty what this portends for the near or middle future. the ongoing news from the economy at large would suggest not entering into this market unless you have substantial resources and almost a near certainty that you won't have to move in less than a minimum of five years."

but, of course, if you and you colleagues said anything like this.....

columbiacounty,

I agree with you about the broad generalization but I still think you are far too kind.

I've always been fond of the Japanese expertise at significant understatement, and I think a more truthful way of phrasing the article would be to paraphrase the Emperor's surrender statement from WW II. Quote: "...the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage, while the general trends of the world have all turned against her interest."

Just replace "war" with "RE" and "Japan" with "homeowner" and you have a reasonably understated account of the housing market.

Other data to consider.

"The MBA (mortgage) purchase index has collapsed following the expiration of the tax credit suggesting home sales will fall sharply too. This is the lowest level for the purchase index since February 1997."
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/mba-mortgage-purchase-applications_09.html

The Case-Shiller Index (CSI) through March 2010 has declined Month-over-Month for the past six straight months. The current report on Existing Home Sales shows increasing inventory in early Summer - when it traditionally should be going down during the peak selling season. Increasing inventory is usually associated with declining prices. As sales are likely to fall significantly when the last of the tax credit sales are completed in June, I will be shocked if the CSI for July 2010 shows a Y-o-Y gain. For that matter, I'd be willing to bet that the Y-o-Y sales number will go negative later this summer.

I don't foresee a massive collapse, but all the data would seem to indicate a continued slide in BOTH sales and prices.

No doubt the first and last time I'll be accused of being too kind.

I agree..looks like the unfortunate death of 1,000 cuts.

"No doubt the first and last time I'll be accused of being too kind."

You're welcome! (-;

More fuel for the fire via Calculatedrisk.

Here are some estimates of sales via James Haggerty at the WSJ: Outlook for Home Prices Grows Darker

Since April 30, new purchase contracts have plunged ... Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, estimated that contracts signed in May were 10% to 15% below the weak level of a year earlier.

Ronald Peltier, chief executive officer of HomeServices of America Inc., which owns real estate brokers in 21 states, said new home-purchase contracts in May and June so far are down about 20% from a year earlier.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/how-high-will-existing-home-months-of.html

'sales plunged 18.3% in the Northeast'

New home sales tumble 32.7% in May to 300,000 annual rate, the lowest since recordkeeping began, the government says.
CNN*Money

"My point if you follow the link is that any volume numbers over 5.5 million annualized really aren't bad numbers." Front Porch

So would the new home sales figures cited before your quote qualify as "bad numbers???"

of course not. you need to consider the nuance.

flat used to be the new up. now down is the new flat. which means that its up.

makes complete sense?

"U.S. pending home sales fall 30% in May"

"New sales contracts on existing homes fell sharply in May after a federal subsidy for buyers expired at the end of April, a trade group reported Thursday. The pending home sales index plunged 30% in May after rising 23% between January and April"

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-pending-home-sales-fall-30-in-may-nar-says-2010-07-01?reflink=MW_news_stmp

You have to wait a few months for the distortion arising from the credit to work its way through. Remember auto sales, as one would expect, plummeted after cash-for-clunkers. But they've since, surprising to some, rebounded quite strongly.

ali: the credit was just extended to the end of september if you signed by April 30.

Automobile? Long dong duc. Aaaaaauuuuuuttoooooomooooobile?

"Existing Home Sales Fall, Putting More Drag on Economy"

"The National Association of Realtors says last month's sales fell 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million."

"The median sale price was $183,700, up 1 percent from a year earlier."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38359193

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said softer home sales expected this summer don’t tell the whole story. “Despite these market swings, total annual home sales are rising above 2009 and we’re looking for overall gains again this year as well as in 2011,” she said. “Conditions have become more balanced in much of the country, which is good for both buyers and sellers. However, consumers find it even more challenging to navigate the transaction process, especially for distressed properties, which only underscores the value Realtors® bring to buyers and sellers in this market

'which only underscores the value Realtors® bring to buyers and sellers in this market'

looks like another piece of self-promotion

looks like another piece of self-promotion by the real estate industry

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of U.S. previously owned homes
fell in June for a second month, adding to evidence the market
will slump as the effects of a federal tax credit fade.
Purchases of existing houses dropped a less-than-forecast
5.1 percent to a 5.37 million annual rate, figures from the
National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The
number of transactions will be “very low” in coming months,
reflecting the end of the government incentive, the group’s
chief economist said in a news conference.
The tax credit of up to $8,000 boosted sales earlier in the
year, releasing pent-up demand and indicating the market will be
slow to recover. Increasing foreclosures are swelling the number
of unsold homes, putting pressure on prices and keeping buyers
out of the market as unemployment hovers near 10 percent and the
economy cools.
“We’re seeing the first stage of the cooling as the tax-
incentive purchases fall off,” said Avery Shenfeld, chiefeconomist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto, who projected sales
would drop to a 5.38 million pace. “We will see prices retreat
as the demand falls off without the tax incentive.
Stocks held earlier gains after the report on improving
earnings forecasts at companies from United Parcel
Service Inc. to AT&T Inc. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose
2.1 percent to 1,092.23 at 10:25 a.m. in New York.
Other reports today showed the economic outlook dimmed and
more Americans than projected filed applications for
unemployment benefits.

Leading Index

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators fell 0.2
percent in June, according to figures from the New York-based
research group.
Initial jobless claims jumped by 37,000 to 464,000 in the
week ended July 17, exceeding the highest estimate of economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News, Labor Department figures showed. The
survey median projected claims would climb to 445,000.
Existing home sales were forecast to decline to a 5.1million pace, according to the median forecast of 74 economists
in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 4.25 million
to 6.2 million. May’s sales rate was 5.66 million, unrevised
from the previous estimate.
Purchases of existing homes increased 7.2 percent compared
with a year earlier prior to adjusting for seasonal patterns.
The median price increased 1 percent to $183,700 from
$181,800 in June 2009.
The number of previously owned homes on the market climbed
2.5 percent to 3.99 million. At the current sales pace, it would
take 8.9 months to sell those houses compared, the most since
August 2009.

More Supply

The supply is likely to jump to 10 or more in coming months
as sales slow, said Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist.
Like other housing data, sales of existing homes have been
whipsawed by the timing of the tax credit. After surging to a
two-and-a-half year high of 6.49 million in November, the month
of the credit’s initial expiration, they dropped for the nextthree months. Demand then recovered in March and April, which
was the deadline for signing contracts, only to slip again the
following month.
The June 30 deadline to close deals, which is when existing
home sales are tabulated, was extended to the end of September
to ensure prospective buyers had enough time to complete
transactions. The majority of those closings will have already
occurred, so the extension will not markedly lift demand, said
Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc.
in New York.

Economic Recovery

Housing’s inability to sustain a recovery is one reason the
economic expansion is not gaining speed. Reports earlier this
week showed housing starts fell in June to the lowest level
since October, and homebuilder sentiment fell this month to its
lowest level since April 2009.
Foreclosures and short-sales are boosting the so-called
shadow inventory, and competing with owners trying to sell
properties. Home seizures jumped 38 percent in the secondquarter from a year earlier, RealtyTrac Inc. said last week,
putting lenders on pace to claim more than 1 million properties
this year.
Sales at Miami-based Lennar, the third-biggest U.S.
homebuilder by revenue, were running 20 percent to 25 percent
lower last month than a year earlier as the expiration of the
tax credit sapped demand, Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller
said June 24.
‘‘The new-home market and housing in general still face
serious headwinds from current economic and legislative
conditions,” Miller said on a conference call with investors.
“The prospect of additional delinquencies ahead continues to
moderate this recovery as shadow inventory continues to be
absorbed.”
Cheaper borrowing costs are helping mitigate the damage.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 4.59
percent last week, the lowest since data collection began in
1990, the Mortgage Bankers Association said yesterday.

"Pending Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Decrease 2.6%"

"The number of contracts to purchase previously owned houses unexpectedly fell in June, indicating demand kept unraveling after the expiration of a homebuyer tax credit."

"The end of the incentive worth as much as $8,000 means a sustained recovery in housing now depends on employment and wage gains, which are taking time to rebound. Personal income and spending unexpectedly stagnated in June, a further indication the economy slowed entering the second half of the year, another report today showed."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-03/pending-sales-of-existing-u-s-homes-unexpectedly-decreased-2-6-in-june.html

"Pending Homes Sales Hit New Record Low Again -- When Will the Deja Vu Be Over?"

"The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced the figures today, but made no mention of the record low in its press release. This is exactly the same method the NAR followed in last month%u2019s release when they made no mention of a record fall or a new record low.

We also find again this month that major news outlets are dumb and incapable of understanding this most obvious of indicator"

http://www.businessinsider.com/pending-home-sales-hit-new-record-low-again-2010-8

"JULY EXISTING HOMES SALES PLUNGE 27.2%"

"This number is FAR below expecations."

http://www.businessinsider.com/july-existing-home-sales-2010-8

"Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009."

"Sales are at the lowest level since the total existing-home sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales – accounting for the bulk of transactions – are at the lowest level since May of 1995."

"The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $182,600 in July, up 0.7 percent from a year ago."

"Total housing inventory at the end of July increased 2.5 percent to 3.98 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.9-month supply in June."

"Single-family home sales dropped 27.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.37 million in July from a pace of 4.62 million in June, and are 25.6 percent below the 4.53 million level in July 2009; they were the lowest since May 1995 when the sales rate was 3.34 million. The median existing single-family home price was $183,400 in July, which is 0.9 percent above a year ago."

"Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast dropped 29.5 percent to an annual pace of 620,000 in July and are 30.3 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $263,800, up 4.8 percent from July 2009."

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/08/ehs_fall

:/

Eeessh. Volume is not price, but volume was not good. Not good at all.

Flmaoz.

ouch

Here comes the price chopper.... Look out below! But really Urbandigs is showing the inventory count to be down in recent months, so I don't think it'll have too much of an effect on us.

this implies lower prices how far from now?

that rule of thumb of "inventory higher than 6 months imply prices down 4 months from now" comes from where!!?!

ali and w67th, you might know that, can you explain what the usual lag is?

Suze orman says you should have 6 months of expenses in reserve. :)

notadmin that's actually a good question and I wanted to know the answer myself. I used the "Condo and Co-op Sales and Prices" data reported by NAR over the past 12 months for the Northeast region...
http://www.realtor.org/ro/research/69da234ae73a51cbd882jeca323b8cefdq1f4e/rel1007cd.xls

The results: prices were correlated the most with sales of that same month, however there was a strong correlation for each of the first 4 months. In terms of predictive powers, since I have only 13 data points it's silly to look so far into the future. Anyone have a link for monthly NAR sales for like the past decade? Well anyway, I checked which month of the first four months of sales had the most statistical significance on prices. It turns out the initial month of sales was the best predictor of prices, followed by the fourth month of sales. Not too much you can draw from these results though as I said, I only looked at NAR northeast condo and coop sales and I only had data for the past 13 months. Take away: the number of sales has the biggest effect on price in that same month.

ohh this is an interesting chart I came across today and figured I'd pass it along:
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/08/existing-homes-months-of-supply-and.html

case schiller index changes and months supply are typically inversely related, though the trend breaks over the past year. I guess I'd also point out months supply was over 12 for existing homes:
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/08/existing-home-months-of-supply-july.html
so... not looking good at all for house prices :\

"Pending Home Sales Beat Expectations" for July.

"Pending home sales rose 5.2% in July, vs. 0.0% expected, according to the National Association of Realtors."

"The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, rose 5.2 percent to 79.4 based on contracts signed in July from a downwardly revised 75.5 in June, but remains 19.1 percent below July 2009 when it was 98.1. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months."

"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist: "For those who bought at or near the peak several years ago, particularly in markets experiencing big bubbles, it may take over a decade to fully recover lost equity.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/pending-home-sales-2010-9

Yun is sooooo getting fired for that quote!

I can't believe he really said that. It can only mean he already knows he's out.

"FHFA July House Price Way Worse Than Expected, Down 0.5%"

"The July house price index from the FHFA came in lower than expected, with home prices falling 0.5% from June to July.

For the year July 2009 to July 2010, home prices fell 3.3%."

Middle Atlantic (NY, NJ, PA) is up June to July by 0.2%, down -0.3% July '09 to July '10.

http://www.businessinsider.com/fhfa-july-house-price-way-worse-than-expected-down-05-2010-9
http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/16978/MonthlyHPI92210F.pdf

AUGUST

"Existing Home Sales at 4.1 million SAAR, 11.6 months of supply"

"Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million in August from an upwardly revised 3.84 million in July, but remain 19.0 percent below the 5.10 million-unit pace in August 2009.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of August slipped 0.6 percent to 3.98 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 11.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 12.5-month supply in July."

"Months of supply decreased to 11.6 months in August from 12.5 months in July. This is extremely high and suggests prices, as measured by the repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and CoreLogic, will continue to decline."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/existing-home-sales-at-41-million-saar.html

Pending Home Sales For August

"The US Housing Market Show Signs Of Life, As Pending Home Sales Jump More Than Expected"
http://www.businessinsider.com/pending-home-sales-august-2010-10

"Pending home sales have increased for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, rose 4.3 percent to 82.3 based on contracts signed in August from a downwardly revised 78.9 in July, but is 20.1 percent below August 2009 when it was 103.0. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months."

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/10/pending_show

SEPTEMBER

"September Existing Home Sales: 4.53 million SAAR, 10.7 months of supply"

"Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 10.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.53 million in September from a downwardly revised 4.12 million in August, but remain 19.1 percent below the 5.60 million-unit pace in September 2009 when first-time buyers were ramping up in advance of the initial deadline for the tax credit last November.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of September fell 1.9 percent to 4.04 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.7-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 12.0-month supply in August."

"Months of supply decreased to 10.7 months in September from 12.0 months in August. This is extremely high and suggests prices, as measured by the repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and CoreLogic, will continue to decline.

Ignore the NAR spin and the median price! These fairly weak numbers are exactly what I expected.

The ongoing high level of supply - and double digit months-of-supply are the key stories."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/september-existing-home-sales-453.html

"Here Are The Ugly Details Behind This Morning's "Good" Existing Home Sales"

"The bottom line: Sales were weak in September - almost exactly at the levels I expected - and will continue to be weak for some time. Inventory is very high - and the significant year-over-year increase in inventory is very concerning. The high level of inventory and months-of-supply will put downward pressure on house prices."

http://www.businessinsider.com/calculated-risk-september-existing-home-sales-2010-10

"IT BEGINS: Pending Home Sales Slide Thanks To Foreclosure-Gate"

"The Pending Homes Sales Index fell 1.8 percent in September. This index is based on contracts signed, not closings, so it would be the first indicator of the foreclosure scandal's impact on potential buyers."

http://www.businessinsider.com/it-begins-pending-home-sales-slide-thanks-to-foreclosure-gate-2010-11

OCTOBER

"October Existing Home Sales: 4.43 million SAAR, 10.5 months of supply"

"Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October from 4.53 million in September, and are 25.9 percent below the 5.98 million-unit level in October 2009 when sales were surging prior to the initial deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 3.4 percent to 3.86 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.5-month supply4 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.6-month supply in September."

Months of supply decreased to 10.5 months in October from 10.6 months in September. This is extremely high and suggests prices, as measured by the repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and CoreLogic, will continue to decline.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/october-existing-home-sales-443-million.html

"Pending Home Sales index increases in October"

"The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, rose 10.4 percent to 89.3 based on contracts signed in October from 80.9 in September. The index remains 20.5 percent below a surge to a cyclical peak of 112.4 in October 2009 ... The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/pending-home-sales-index-increases-in.html

"December Existing Home Sales: 5.28 million SAAR, 8.1 months of supply"

"Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 12.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million in December from an upwardly revised 4.70 million in November, but remain 2.9 percent below the 5.44 million pace in December 2009.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 4.2 percent to 3.56 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in November."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/december-existing-home-sales-528.html

"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales are on an uptrend. “December was a good finish to 2010, when sales fluctuate more than normal. The pattern over the past six months is clearly showing a recovery,”"

Go Lawrence!

Robo signing moratorium had NO effing effect on December data!!!!!!! Go Larry yun! Your borker parents would be proud.

Anyone ever look at the margin of error on these stats? They are in double digits. That means you can only look at the trend or use a moving average since there is so much noise and seasonality in any given month that any month to month change, unless it is 30-40%+, is essentially meaningless.

"February Existing Home Sales: 4.88 million SAAR, 8.6 months of supply"

"Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million in February from an upwardly revised 5.40 million in January, and are 2.8 percent below the 5.02 million pace in February 2010.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 3.5 percent to 3.49 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 7.5-month supply in January."

"Special Note: Back in January, I noted that it appeared the NAR had overestimated sales by 5% or so in 2007, and that the errors had increased since then (perhaps 10% or 15% or more in 2009 and 2010). I reported in January that the NAR was working on benchmarking existing home sales for earlier years with other industry data, and I expected "this effort will lead to significant downward revisions to previously reported sales". The numbers reported today were estimated using the old method and will probably be revised down significantly, but they are still useful on a month-to-month basis."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/03/february-existing-home-sales-488.html

Expunge The Lie.

"February pending-home sales index up 2.1% at 90.8"

"Pending home sales rose in February in all parts of the U.S. except for the Northeast, a real estate trade group reported Monday. The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales rose 2.1% to 90.8 in February, the first increase in three months." HURRAY!!

"Yet the index still stands 8.2% below the year-ago level of 98.9, when a now-expired federal tax credit boosted sales." D'OH!

"Pending sales fell 10.9% in the Northeast, which NAR said might be attributable to poor weather." YES! The weather, it has to be!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/february-pending-home-sales-index-up-21-at-908-2011-03-28

"March Existing Home Sales Come At 5.1 Million, 8.4 Months Of Inventory, Median Condo Price Down 10% From Year Prior"

"Larry Yun, whose NAR has now lost all credibility, and which data has been confirmed to be flawed and conflicted, released March existing home sales, which allegedly came at an annualized rate of 5.1 million compared to expectations of 5 million. From the release: "Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million in March from an upwardly revised 4.92 million in February, but are 6.3 percent below the 5.44 million pace in March 2010. Sales were at elevated levels from March through June of 2010 in response to the home buyer tax credit." And while we have nothing but ridicule for Yun's thought, for some reason the market still seems to care."

"Yet not even NAR could spin the collapse in housing prices:

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000 in March from 640,000 in February, but are 4.1 percent below the 678,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price was $153,100 in March, which is 10.1 percent below March 2010."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/march-existing-home-sales-come-51-million-84-months-inventory-median-condo-price-down-10-yea

"Consumer Sentiment increases in May, Pending Home Sales decline sharply"

"The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, dropped 11.6 percent to 81.9 in April from a downwardly revised 92.6 in March. The index is 26.5 percent below a cyclical peak of 111.5 in April 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the contract deadline for the home buyer tax credit."

"This suggests a sharp decline in existing home sales in May or June."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/consumer-sentiment-increases-in-may_27.html

"Market Surges After Existing Home Sales Drop, Print At 4.81MM On Expectations Of 4.80MM"

"More lies from the discredited, conflicted and data manipulating NAR which for some stunning reason continues to move the market, even more paradoxically after the existing home sales number came at 4.81 million on expectations of 4.80 million: if there ever was a Gargantuan beat of expectations, this is it. But courtesy of a prior downward revision which took down the April number from 5.05 million to 5.00 million, the decline was 3.8% instead of the expected 5.0%. Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 1.0 percent to 3.72 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.3-month supply4 at the current sales pace, up from a 9.0-month supply in April. Somehow this sends futures up nearly half a percent. And from the master of mendacity, the one and only Larry Yun, the weakness was due to "Spiking gasoline prices along with widespread severe weather hurt house shopping in April, leading to soft figures for actual closings in May." Obviously there is never a simple explanation for deteriorating economic data such as people don't actually have money... "

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/market-surges-after-existing-home-sales-drop-come-481mm-expectations-480mm

"Existing Home Sales in June: 4.77 million SAAR, 9.5 months of supply"

"Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million in June from 4.81 million in May, and remain 8.8 percent below the 5.23 million unit level in June 2010, which was the scheduled closing deadline for the home buyer tax credit.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 3.3 percent to 3.77 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 9.1-month supply in May."

"Note: The NAR provided an update on the coming revisions:

[T]here will be a downward revision to sales volumes ... Preliminary data based on the new benchmark is expected to be available for review in August. ... Publication of the revisions is not likely before this fall, but we expect to provide a notice one month in advance of the publication date."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/07/existing-home-sales-in-june-477-million.html

Uh oh... revision coming...

"Pending Home Sales increase in June"

"The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 2.4 percent to 90.9 in June from 88.8 in May and is 19.8 percent above the 75.9 reading in June 2010, which was the low point immediately following expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The data reflects contracts but not closings.
...
The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 0.4 percent to 68.9 in June but is 19.4 percent higher than June 2010. "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/07/pending-home-sales-increase-in-june.html

"Existing Home Sales in July: 4.67 million SAAR, 9.4 months of supply"

"Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.67 million in July from 4.84 million in June, but are 21.0 percent above the 3.86 million unit pace in July 2010, which was a cyclical low immediately following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of July fell 1.7 percent to 3.65 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 9.2-month supply in June."

"nventory decreased 8.9% year-over-year in July from July 2010. This is the sixth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory.

Months of supply increased to 9.4 months in July, up from 9.2 months in June. This is much higher than normal. "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/08/existing-home-sales-in-july-467-million.html

"HOUSING MARKET WORSENS: Pending Home Sales Fall 1.3%"

"Pending home sales fell 1.3% in July, missing a Bloomberg consensus of -1%.
It is still 14.4% up year-over-year."

http://www.businessinsider.com/july-pending-home-sales-2011-8

And, of course, oil & stock & commodity prices rally - despite all of the dismal economic news: manufacturing activity, GDP revised downward almost to 0%, unemployment rising, Europe grinding to a halt.

The more oil prices stay elevated, the slower the economy will get. Somebody should tell Bernakers - this policy of his is INSANE.

Dallas Fed confirms Philly & NY Fed:

http://www.dallasfed.org/data/outlook/2011/1108/tmos1108.cfm

Spending up - on cars - but incomes down.

Meanwhile, stocks & oil up 2.5%.

Not sustainable.

Another very dangerous sign:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/W?anticache=1314653475

Looks just like stocks and oil. I wonder how the price of everything has gone up so much, while at the same time the economies of the world have ground to a halt?

Let's continue to use enomous amounts of fuel and energy to grow corn to feed livestock to produce a small amount of food or prehaps to produce a small amount of biofuel. Let's go to Brazil and deforest the entire country to grow corn, to produce biofuel, to end dependence on imported petrol. This is a great plan. Now Brazil has to import oxygen. From who??? I do not know.

"Existing Home Sales in August: 5.0 million SAAR, 8.5 months of supply"

"Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 7.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million in August from an upwardly revised 4.67 million in July, and are 18.6 percent higher than the 4.24 million unit level in August 2010.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 3.0 percent to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply4 at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in July "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/existing-home-sales-in-august-50.html

"Existing home sales debacle"

"In what can only be described as completely unsurprising, Larry Yun of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has admitted, according to CNNMoney, that maybe possibly they overstated, purely by accident, the number of existing homes sales statistic that has formed the cornerstone of his constant corner-turning commentary over the past few years. We have unequivocally challenged the Ph.D.'s claims as fudged and fabricated this year and even the Wall Street Journal, back in February of 2011, saw 'challenges' in the NAR's data when compared to other unbiased sources of the same reality. We can only assume that when Yun explains, in true Baghdad-Bob-style, the adjustments (when they are released on December 21st) that they will be either a signal that the bottom is in for home sales or that from such a low base, things can only get better. From our perspective, they remain irrelevant and untrustworthy with the CoreLogic data seemingly less naturally biased to an organization desperate for a foothold on the glimmering slope back to the American Dream."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/existing-home-sales-debacle-larry-baghdad-bob-yun-confirms-overstatement

"Accident" my ass. Shilling and deceiving the public is more like it. This is borderline criminal behavior. So many people rely on these data points, and here they are, exposed to be wrong. Thanks a lot, NAR. I can't believe I spent 21 months updating this thread with your useless data.

I heard this little story & was like "WTF??"
In these interesting times, many things are being revealed as BS & lies.
Existing homes report: we're living in a house of cards that's tumbling down.

It should be criminal, but white-collar fraud is the perfect crime: not that you can't be caught, but there are no consequences when you are.

What the National Association on Realtors is not correct... You find this surprising? It comes from an association of REALTORS!!!! That should say enough.. It is naturally biased bullshit!!

"'challenges' in the NAR's data when compared to other unbiased sources of the same reality."

why are figures released by this group received as the definitive state of the market update as opposed to the "unbiased sources" documenting the same thing?

Thanks pulaski for not starting a new thread, this is great when you compare the comments from before to now.

Believing/trusting what comes from a Realtor or the NAR.... remind me of this guy..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s27Oq5ot0ZI

"NAR said it plans to downwardly revise sales of previously-owned homes going back to 2007 "
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-existing-home-sales-to-be-revised-lower-in-meaningful-way-20111214,0,2475335.story

revise back to 2007!! It was like a pump & dump: hype the suckers to buy & then watch values plummet.

Aw shit, let's do a write-down so we can show straight growth again.

US Housing Market Was Artificially Inflated By 14% In 2007-2010 NAR Reports

EXISTING U.S. HOME SALES REVISED DOWN BY 14% FROM 2007-2010
EXISTING HOME SALES REVISED DOWN BY 15% IN 2010 TO 4.19 MLN

Total sales have been cut for 2007 through 2010:
2007 lowered 11% to 5.04 million
2008 lowered 16% to 4.11 million
2009 lowered 16% to 4.34 million
2010 lowered 15% to 4.19 million

%u201CEven before the revisions things were bad, now they are even worse,%u201D Yun said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-21/u-s-existing-homes-sold-since-2007-revised-down-by-14-magnifying-slump.html

So can we believe that EHS were up 4.0% MoM form the NAR?

Answer:

NO, they are still a bunch of Realtors and their data will be biased!!!!

This is disgusting. These people (NAR) should be thrown in jail.

This makes sense I guess since the apartment I am in contract to buy came down about 15% in price from the 2007 sale price. I thought we were just getting a deal, which we might be, but it is also probably just priced adequately now.

Yun makes me recall a joke in the insurance/actuarial world that goes something like this:

Two actuaries interview for the same job and the company Pres asks One Question of each:
"what is 2 + 2?"

Candidate #1 replies "Four."
Candidate #2 replies "What would YOU like it be?"

#2 gets the job - sounds like Yun had a similar interview to get his current post.

Here is a nice graph of same

http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/21/real_estate/home_sales_revised/index.htm?iid=Lead

"Some industry sources had been critical of the organization's data. In February, CoreLogic charged that NAR data was overestimating sales by 15% to 20%."

Another graph, showing the crash was much worse

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/12/22/business/a-big-difference-in-home-sales.html?ref=economy

"NAR Continues Tradition Of Making Mockery Of Itself, Revises December Home Sales From 5% to -0.5%"

"And here is yet another reason why we will permanently ignore the pathologically lying real estate syndicate known as the NAR (link): December data was just revised from 5% to -0.5% (from 4.61 million to 4.38 million). Since December market expectations were for a 5.2% print, imagine the sheer horror the algos would have been faced with had the real number been reported on time. Anyone who trades anything based on this borderline criminal self-reporting enterprise needs to have their head checked. In other news, when will the LIBOR investigation finally target the NAR? "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nar-continues-tradition-making-mockery-itself-revises-december-home-sales-5-05

"Pending Home Sales MISS EXPECTATIONS, Fall 5.5%"

"Pending home sales fell 5.5 percent in April, reversing a 3.8 percent gain logged in March, new data out of the National Association of Realtors shows.

The NAR also revised last month's gain 30 basis points lower, from an earlier estimate of a 4.1 percent increase.

The 5.5 percent sequential decline in April still represents a 14.7 percent gain from year-ago levels, as the housing market shuddered in 2011.

%u201CHome contract activity has been above year-ago levels now for 12 consecutive months," Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said. "The housing recovery momentum continues."

http://www.businessinsider.com/pending-home-sales-2012-5

Oh, Lawrence...

"OUCH: Existing Home Sales Plunge 5.4%"

"Existing home sales unexpectedly fell to 4.37 million in June.

This is down 5.4 percent from 4.62 million in May.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for 4.62 million on an annualized basis.

"Despite the frictions related to obtaining mortgages, buyer interest remains solid," said Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors. "But inventory continues to shrink and that is limiting buying opportunities. This, in turn, is pushing up home prices in many markets."

http://www.businessinsider.com/june-existing-home-sales-2012-7

But does this mean that the markets are really improving?

super low inventories reported today ??