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Where are all the bears

Started by Eastside
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 146
Member since: Aug 2009
Discussion about
I remember last summer this board was full of bear postings....ie apts will go down 30 to 50%,etc......now it seems that the nyc real estate market(ie manhattan) is beginning to rebound.....im seeing apts selling close to ask and selling quickly......plus are bidding wars back? So, is the downturn in manhattan officially over in terms of real estate?
Response by inonada
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7951
Member since: Oct 2008

"inonada, does interactivebrokers do tax lot accounting?"

I'm actually not sure as it wasn't something I care about too much given what I do in my accounts. You can declare trading to have a FIFO, LIFO, or "Maximize Loss" tax basis, but I don't know if they actually keep track of everything. Poke around on their site, I guess, to find out...

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Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

I poked around, but the site is kinda lousy.

If they have the choices, odds are, they track it (why ask if they're not).

What do you do in your accounts such that taxes aren't a major factor?

The tax lot accounting has helped me save a LOT of $$$.

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Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

wad, thats huge...

"http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/03/11/fha-says-higher-down-payments-risks-double-dip-price-decline/

Responding to critics, officials of the Federal Housing Administration are set to warn in Congressional testimony Thursday that a double-dip decline in housing prices may result from even a slight increase in minimum down payments on FHA-backed loans."

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Response by BSexposer
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

"I didn't say I traded "fairly frequently" - I said I traded more than I used to. It's a necessity in a range-bound market."

Range-bound?????? The S&P was 666 a year ago. Or do you mean "range-bound" for the last week to 10 days? Trading = dumb. Investing = smart.

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Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

lol

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Response by BSexposer
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

"The money I make I take out - keep the profit. I keep the trading account at the same balance - it minimizes the risk."

What happens when you have a down day? Do you "refund" your prior profits back into your "trading account" to get back to your original level? Or are you like Bernie Madoff, who never lost money? Seriously, you may be wise when it comes to RE investing, but you have no clue what real stock investing is about. You should turn off the CNBC, dude.

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Response by inonada
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7951
Member since: Oct 2008

"What do you do in your accounts such that taxes aren't a major factor?"

Taxes are of course a major factor, just not tax lot accounting. For various reasons, I only do "buy-and-hold equities forever" in these accounts. Taxes are part of the calculus there, and in the rare event that I decide to sell, I sell the entire position so tax lots don't make a difference.

IMO, tax rules make it favorable to do buy-and-hold in your regular account and trading (if that's your sort of thing, not saying it should be) out of your retirement account. Not sure that's what Congress had intended, but there it is...

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Response by BSexposer
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

Just to make clear, it is not "easy" to make 2% per day by "trading", as steve claims. If you were able to accomplish this EVERY DAY for a year (200 trading days approx) and you reinvested your profits daily, you would end up being up 5250% for the year. Something tells me that neither steve nor anybody else can compound their money by a factor of 52.5 on a yearly basis. Just my opinion. FWIW, Buffett has compounded his money by less than 30% annually over the past 50 years - nowhere close to 5250%.

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Response by wad
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 99
Member since: Dec 2008

"The money I make I take out - keep the profit. I keep the trading account at the same balance - it minimizes the risk."

Not that I care because I don't day trade, but this exemplifies one of the risks in behavioral finance. Creating false partitions where $1 in one account somehow does not equal $1 in another account.

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Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

"Taxes are of course a major factor, just not tax lot accounting. For various reasons, I only do "buy-and-hold equities forever" in these accounts. Taxes are part of the calculus there, and in the rare event that I decide to sell, I sell the entire position so tax lots don't make a difference."

Gocha. I'm mostly buy and hold forever, but I'll add to and shave off positions after major movements, so the accounting is big for me.

"IMO, tax rules make it favorable to do buy-and-hold in your regular account and trading (if that's your sort of thing, not saying it should be) out of your retirement account. Not sure that's what Congress had intended, but there it is... "

Yup, absolutely, and I was sort of doing that. But overall, I'm "buying in". I just add and shave to essentially improve my average cost. And I've been 100% in with my retirement accounts since about the bottom, and cash only comes in in lumps.

New cash goes to the new account each month, so thats where the activity would be.

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Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

sorry, I mean new cash only goes into the "regular" account each month...

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Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

"Not that I care because I don't day trade, but this exemplifies one of the risks in behavioral finance. Creating false partitions where $1 in one account somehow does not equal $1 in another account."

Bingo. There isn't a lot of logic in Steve's approach. He lost tons, has $100k left, and then is pretending whatever leaks over the top in the runup is "profit", but its just a bit of what he lost returned.

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Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

"Just to make clear, it is not "easy" to make 2% per day by "trading", as steve claims. If you were able to accomplish this EVERY DAY for a year (200 trading days approx) and you reinvested your profits daily, you would end up being up 5250% for the year. Something tells me that neither steve nor anybody else can compound their money by a factor of 52.5 on a yearly basis. Just my opinion. FWIW, Buffett has compounded his money by less than 30% annually over the past 50 years - nowhere close to 5250%."

Agreed.

If it were easy, every millionaire would become a billionaire in a few years, and Goldman wouldn't need to borrow.

Its only "easy" for folks who don't have much, so there isn't much to lose. If you only have $20 left, betting it all on black isn't such a big deal. If you have real money, you likely realize this makes no sense.

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Response by exbreezy
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 20
Member since: Nov 2008

@BSexposer
"The money I make I take out - keep the profit. I keep the trading account at the same balance - it minimizes the risk."

What happens when you have a down day? Do you "refund" your prior profits back into your "trading account" to get back to your original level? Or are you like Bernie Madoff, who never lost money? Seriously, you may be wise when it comes to RE investing, but you have no clue what real stock investing is about. You should turn off the CNBC, dude.

@BSexposer
Just to make clear, it is not "easy" to make 2% per day by "trading", as steve claims. If you were able to accomplish this EVERY DAY for a year (200 trading days approx) and you reinvested your profits daily, you would end up being up 5250% for the year. Something tells me that neither steve nor anybody else can compound their money by a factor of 52.5 on a yearly basis. Just my opinion. FWIW, Buffett has compounded his money by less than 30% annually over the past 50 years - nowhere close to 5250%.

@inonada
Steve, you need to check your assumptions on making $2k a day on $100k in capital. There are about 250 trading days a year, so you're talking about making $500k a year on $100k in capital. I.e., 500% annually. If you're a fan of American Greed on CNBC, that's not even Madoff levels of returns, but rather church-scam-promising-believers-in-good-things levels of returns.

@Topper
2% a day?
That's totally whacky!
BTW, 2% a day for 250 trading days in a year grows a paltry $100,000 to $14,126,772.15
Think of the apartment you could rent then!

@somewhereelse
"inonada, $2k a day is really easy. Even if you only have $100,000 and make 2% a day - easy on most days - you're in."
Yes, in a market that jumps 60% in a few months, its very easy. I remember tons of folks saying just this in the dotcom boom, too.
What steve leaves out is that he and the others got crushed when it wasn't boom time. His $100k was probably $500k before.

=Stevejhx returns were proven a couple years back to exceed any hedge fund manager ever. Ever.

Except that Stevejhx leveraged himself into Brazilian and Chinese equities and bought Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and then blamed Jim Cramer for his losses because he shouldn't have lost money

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Response by amazon
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 23
Member since: Oct 2009

In my very nice suburb in NJ I rent and the own/rent ratio is 15 - a place just like mine just sold for 15 times my annual rent. Here there are some very nice rental houses - people get 2 - 3 year assignments overseas, etc. My relatives live in a nice suburb in Westchester. I noticed a house there that was selling for about the same price but renting for half as much - a ratio of 30. Their suburb is a better commute to Manhattan. What does this mean? That the suburb in Westchester is overpriced? The house seemed like a decent value but maybe the rent is too low. Their taxes are also really, really high.

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Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

"What happens when you have a down day? Do you "refund" your prior profits back into your "trading account" to get back to your original level? Or are you like Bernie Madoff, who never lost money? Seriously, you may be wise when it comes to RE investing, but you have no clue what real stock investing is about. You should turn off the CNBC, dude."

lol.

"=Stevejhx returns were proven a couple years back to exceed any hedge fund manager ever. Ever.

Except that Stevejhx leveraged himself into Brazilian and Chinese equities and bought Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and then blamed Jim Cramer for his losses because he shouldn't have lost money"

Yes, I do actually remember that.

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