Home prices post smallest annual decline in 3 yrs

The national economy is definitely stabilizing. Friday's national unemployment report and 1st Q Manhattan sales reports at right around the same time will be interesting. Could lead to a robust second quarter in the local real estate market and the start of a return to normalcy.

Looking for +200K new jobs.
Might be a stretch, but don't be surprise if we see 400K.

ericho...how did NYC do in that data? yes....made its 5th straight month over month decline. you'd be all set if LIC was a suburb of san diego.

Let's see if the government continues to prop it up ...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/business/30housing.html?ref=business

From the SAME story in TOP:

"...Still, there are signs that last year's housing rebound won't last. Home sales sank during the winter, and government incentives that have propped up the market are ending.

Another reason for the positive news is simply that the Case-Shiller index measures a three-month average of home prices. So January's report includes November's strong home sales.

Many analysts expect that the Case Shiller number will eventually turn downward.

"It is only a matter of time before the index records a double-dip in prices," wrote Paul Dales, U.S. economist with Capital Economics, who forecasts a 5 percent drop. The market will be tested in the second half of the year, he wrote, when a tax credit that has boosted sales is gone."

CENSUS hiring will distort employment figures until about June/July..at which time what went IN will COME OUT...dont look too much into it because of CENSUS hiring..its temporary, not real jobs created.

Will -what is a return to normalcy? The NYC boom was far from normal to begin with. Who is to say what is normal - is it normal to go up 20% a year - or 3%

From NYT / Malthus link above: "Arguments for extending the tax credit a second time are just beginning. Robert Shiller, a professor of economics at Yale and co-developer of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller housing price index, is an early advocate. He thinks the credit was a bad idea that nevertheless the market cannot do without.

“You don’t make drug addicts go cold turkey,” Mr. Shiller said. “The credit interferes with the market in an arbitrary way, but ending it now would be psychologically powerful. People will be in a bad mood about buying a house.” He advocates phasing it out gradually."

That about sums it up. Government created drug addicts: we'll be treating them forever.

Buy now OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!

erico75: "How you like me now!"

New York was down 0.3% in January. (Down in December also.)

Well, at least the rest of the country is moving up, erico!

"ericho...how did NYC do in that data? yes....made its 5th straight month over month decline. you'd be all set if LIC was a suburb of san diego. "

lol

> Many analysts expect that the Case Shiller number will eventually turn downward.

whoops.

"Will -what is a return to normalcy? The NYC boom was far from normal to begin with. Who is to say what is normal - is it normal to go up 20% a year - or 3%"

Agreed. We were in a bubble.

Normal could mean "only" 2000-level prices.

Normal could mean a lot more down.

"( ) seasonally adjusted prices rose 0.3 percent in January while unadjusted home prices fell by 0.4 percent as shown below."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/196192-case-shiller-home-prices-go-up-and-down?source=hp

You bears crack me up.

UP UP AND AWAY!!!

Anyone seen copper prices???

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=w1

Economy will be in full throttle by year end. Bank on it.

> You bears crack me up.
> UP UP AND AWAY!!!

Wait, the stat says DOWN, Ericho yells UP, and *we're* funny.

Wow, some times I think ericho is just on crack.

So FYI, the CS NYC Condo index (NOT the normal NYC index, but JUST the one that counts condos in the NYC area) was marginally down (less than 1%) month over month and down 6.4% versus Jan 2009. So that is the more relevant figure for most of you.

Also, for those who love to argue here are some sobering stats from the site

Performance of Asset Classes
Each asset class is represented by the corresponding investment vehicle.
Annualized
Asset Returns Volatility
Housing 4.74% 4.14%
Bonds 6.33% 3.84%
Stocks -0.95% 16.13%
REITs 10.81% 25.09%

Data from January 2000 to December 2009

unless you can deal with REITS volatility...in which case you win hands down in REITS over all the other options.

Stocks in Jan 2000 were of course at the top of a bubble... try it just a few years before...

BTW, the REITS I know are stocks... bunch of 'em int he S&P.

And, of course, I'm sure we're about to see the mistake made but...
past performance is not an indicator of future returns.
At the top of any bubble, returns look awesome! We're only a little off the top of the housing one...
But, of course thats the wrong time to do it.

Jason, you're return number for housing is a price-only number and doesn't include the (considerable) free rent (largely tax-free income) that you would have received from your home.

The volatility number does not reflect any mortgage you might have.

It is also a national number. The price-only for NYC would be far higher.

You can be sure that the REIT number you show does include the income thrown off by the real estate properties. It also includes the mortgage on the buildings.

Sorry, should read "your" return number...

Tax credit stole from future sales with a tax payer subsidy no less.

...Assume a few months of poor stats.

"Jason, you're return number for housing is a price-only number and doesn't include the (considerable) free rent (largely tax-free income) that you would have received from your home"

Of course, it doesn't include the taxes and maintenance you paid on that "asset" either...

And I don't think stocks include dividends either.

"The volatility number does not reflect any mortgage you might have."

Right, so 5x it.

Either way, not good for RE.

"And I don't think stocks include dividends either."

The figure for stocks does, indeed, include dividends. Known as the "lost decade" to stock investors. But not indicative of long term returns or prospective returns.

"Of course, it doesn't include the taxes and maintenance you paid on that 'asset' either..."

Taxes and maintenance are virtually always lower than rents. (Otherwise, how could a landlord make any money?) It is the "net implied rent" that you are saving by buying.

Don't get me wrong - I am a Manhattan residential real estate bear. But it's important to compare apples with apples.

Where's spunky?

street already revising nfp #'s down based on adp today....ericho once again setting himself up for defeat.

Yeah. I need to start selling every time he posts something.

unemployment went up again and ericho just called that "positive".

ouch