Statistically best NY Neighborhoods

wonder where Williamsburg came in statistically? Hard to compute in Knife wielding gang warfare and toxic waste plums with the unending available inventory to build crap.

http://nymag.com/realestate/neighborhoods/2010/65374/index10.html

Take a look for yourself. It sits considerably above such "awful" neighborhoods as the UES and UWS. So you know these are really great and definitive rankings. Seriously though, these are ultimately pretty useless, as anyone who's lived in this city knows, things can change pretty drastically from block to block, even within the same neighborhood. Sorry fitz, I think you'll be hard to pressed to find too many people who'd consider the LES a top neighborhood.

LES? Seriously???

One might say the real estate market is a perfect evaluation of "statistics" determining best neighborhoods and that what people are willing to pay to be in an area is at least one reasonable measure of "bestness."

so kyle in your thinking - the areas with the greatest decrease in sales price are the ones with the greatest decline in bestness?

The data used by Silver heavily relies on housing affordbaility, so virtually all of prime Manhattan is excluded.

instead of "excluded" you could also say virtually all of prime Manhattan is overpriced.

wow, when did petrfitz become a bear? the bottom must be near . . .

rotfl. putzface didn't even finish the article.

> giving housing affordability more weight than any other category.

meaning cheap places (that might be cheap because they suck) move to the top...

"Lies, damned lies and statistics."

@petrfitz: I don't think prices moving up or down have a thing to do with my point--not sure why you inject that distraction. The point is, if a jr.-four sells at $x in an area near Prospect Park and it sells for $5x in GV, the market has definitively said GV is better and thus people are willing to spend 5 times more to live there. I find this a more reliable digestion of "statistical data" than a dude who places value on affordable housing as something making an area great, which is really to place the cart before the horse.

Kylewest - I bought several properties in an area - the LES - that I feel was properly valued and had a good source of rental income. I believe the fact that the LES has not been hit as hard as the rest of NY, all my rentals are full and have been during this downturn, LES was listed as one of the most important historic neighborhoods, and this report says statistically it is a great place to live... says that my bets on RE were a lot better than the idiots who bought in UWS, W Burg etc.

I place a value on the actual value of my properties and their income - and I am up significantly in this downturn. Where do you own Kyle?

The ranking, by a guy who just moved to NY from Chicago, has LES at #1 ... for the "Young, Single, and Cash-Strapped"!

So in other words, the LES is the primo choice for lonely disadvantaged youths!!!

LES #2. right. I think this is survey is statistically influenced by nate silver's age.

This might be more helpful:

http://nymag.com/realestate/neighborhoods/2010/65355/

I don't doubt Silver's statistical abilities, but what makes this obviously more fun than science is that everyone will have different weights for different categories. It's pretty obvious someone like petrfitz doesn't get that and jumps on this mythical ranking as a way to boast about his supposed LES property. I won't deny that it can be fun to egg him on though.

bjw2103, I would agree that everybody has different priorities. But if you take my neighorhood - Central Harlem - which I would say has 4 key attributes: affordability, green space, transport, and housing stock it does worse than places like Inwood and Red Hook and Roosevelt Island. Even if I say that ALL I care about is transport, I'm still worse than Long Island City (which is convenient to Midtown but that's it) and Mornignside Heights (which is accessible by a local train) and half the neighborhoods in Brooklyn. So I question even the accuracy of the underlying data.

WinstonNYC, fair enough, I was giving Silver some benefit of the doubt for his work in baseball and elections, but it's clear the data are pretty bad here, given your exercise. Even more atrocious, in my book, is the ranking for green space - Roosevelt Island is 6th (compare with the UES at 14 and Fort Greene at 34). That's insane.

@perf: I'm a poster child for location, location, location. Both in the NYC apts I've owned over the last 20+ years and my weekend place. No fringe for me. I am not a Dumbo or LIC or W-burg guy. There's a reason a jr-four costs 5 times more in GV than any of dozens of other areas: it is because GV is better and the market says so. And I don't know what you mean by you having purchased "properly valued" RE. It's value is what someone is willing to pay for it. There is no such thing as "improperly valued" RE. You can ask if the value is likely to hold, rise or fall, but the value cannot be wrong. And in this economic period, common wisdom seems to be holding in terms of AAA location RE holding its value better overall than fringe areas.

kylewest - how much value did your properties lose in the downturn? You realize that you own in the areas with the largest decline? I own in the areas with little to know decline (actually an increase in some sectors)

That is my point. You bought in expense area that got crushed. I bought in properly price area and did not get crushed (Actually made money)

Kylewest it seems your RE strategy is "to buy in the most expensive areas."

The most expensive areas are often the most speculative, the most overpriced, and the areas where a bunch of idiots live. And GV sucks now. No one hangs out there anymore. The neighborhood has been over for a long time......

GV sucks now? Come on - there are spectacular restaurants (both "hot" ones and old standbyes). It also has nearly everything else: safety, aesthetic beauty, a nice blend of retail (actually useful stuff likely grocery stores, as well as cute boutiques), tons of subways, great public schools. Park access I don't think is great, just because the parks are so crowded and small. The LES has nightlife and restaurants (and nowhere near the diversity or caliber of GV) and that's it. Overall, I think if money were no object, more people would pick the West Village than anywhere in the city. Frankly, prices reflect this. Tribeca may have higher average prices, but that's because there's more large places.

Now that said - I live in Harlem (but moved there from the West Village). I disagree with Kyle only because your priorities can evolve as you get older. I'm married with a kid now. So, to me, commute to work, green space, beautiful housing, and retail matter the most (but retail in terms of grocery stores and drug stores; I work in midtown so can go from work). Schools less so because we'll probably go private, so why pay for a good school district? Frankly, we can afford a nice 3 bedroom in the West Village, but just not the same amount of space. We moved to Harlem to have space for things like a backyard, a playroom, guest room when the grandparents come to visit. I am delighted with the tradeoff - my commute to work is the same more or less; parks are more plentiful and less crowded; I am renovating a beatiful bronwstone. There's enough retail now - 2 and soon to be 3 upscale grocery stores within a couple minutes for the nearest and 10-12 minutes for the farthest, coffee shops, places to grab brunch. While I'm a huge foodie, I need to call a babysitter because of the kid to go out to dinner, so if I'm going to plan ahead I can spend 10-15 minutes in a taxi.

The point is - I generally agree with location, location, location if you live in NYC and don't have kids yet. Better to cram into a small place in a great neighorhood than live in a big place. But once you have kids the need for space changes and your definition of amenities changes (towards parks and schools and grocery stores instead of restaurants and cute boutiques).

Winston--I think you are absolutely right. And in the end "best" is a very personal thing. But to suggest the market price is not an indication of desireability is nutsy.

petrfitz: I have no idea where your thoughts come from because they certainly don't relate to anything I write. I'm a far way from being lectured on my RE decisions. Those decisions have been more profitable than any investments I have ever had. I sold my first apartment at a 400% profit, my wkend place has probably similarly appreciated (even in today's market), I've parlayed RE sale into substantial savings plus a great new place. How much value have I "lost"? None. I plan to live where I am for many years and am thrilled. What possible difference does it make if the apt is worth 10% less today or 100% more than 2 years ago? And no idea what you mean "getting crushed"--prices in the central village where I am are hardly crushed--they are pretty much holding at maybe 10% down from peak in 2007. That's the experience in my building. You wanna talk new construction, that's a completely different story. I've never been a fan of those new turn-of-the-21st-century condo buildings and those people are screwed in terms of being able to move without a loss if they bought in the last 5 years. But honestly, central Village crushed? LES the better place to live? Are you kidding me? What planet are you on?

@ kylewest: completely agree with you. With the exception of some fear selling post-Lehman I think prices in the Vilage are (were?) down at most 10% from peak. I don't have hard data but I looked for a pre-war 1BR in the Village for the past year and eventually concluded there were no 25% off peak prices to be had unless the apt had a serious defect. I am now in contract for a great place -- in the East Village -- and a price maybe 5%-10% off peak. In the end there is so much money in Manhattan and enough of the wealthy people want to live in the Village - more West and Center but also East, which I think has actually become a better neighborhood in recent years as the hipsters have gone south to the LES or W-Burg.

Just an FYI: perfitz has not posted to this thread. "petrfitz" is an impostor.

There this nothing more that I despise more than hipster neighborhoods even though my age probabaly puts me into the hipster age group. I would rather live in rural Montana than in W Burg.

The East Village rocks. Great restaurants. Good vibe. Its grown up nicely.

http://nymag.com/realestate/neighborhoods/2010/65374/index10.html

GREENPOINT
ASTORIA
SUNNYSIDE
LONG ISLAND CITY

All are in the top 15 and ahead of the slums of upper east, Chelsea, west side & Cooper Square/stytown!!!! Where's W64 and his knuckleheads??? Stevexxxx???? AR???

Fitz, the article said that the LES is a great place to live, not invest. It might be a good place to invest, but that's not the point of the article.

The real question is how come you don't live there yourself? It seems like you're stuck in some crappy neighborhood yourself while your tenants are living the life you should be living.

Interesting list. One problem is it doesn't have Forest Hills or Rego Park.

The website is pretty cool, you can choose what factors mean the most to you and the website will rank places based on your preferences.
http://nymag.com/realestate/neighborhoods/2010/65355/

inonada - I do live in the LES what makes you think that I do not?

Kylewest - by your logic you would only buy the most expensive stocks because their price makes them the best stock. I buy stocks that are priced correctly and are positioned well for fluctuating market conditions and cash returns.

Condojake. I agree about Forest Hills having a lot of great qualities - restaurants, schools, parks, proximity etc. But the problem I have with the "custom ranking" is it seems less than accurate to me.

As I said earlier: "if you take my neighorhood - Central Harlem - which I would say has 4 key
attributes: affordability, green space, transport, and housing stock it does worse than places like Inwood and Red Hook and Roosevelt Island when you say you literally do NOT care about anything else. Even if I say that ALL I care about is transport, I'm still worse than Long Island City (which is convenient to Midtown but that's it) and Mornignside Heights (which is accessible by a local train) and half the neighborhoods in Brooklyn. So I question even the accuracy of the underlying data."

Mystically also the West Village has the best park access of anywhere in Manhattan except Inwood. Try putting just green space as your #1 criteria and everything else last. West Village is #3. I love the West Village and maintain it's overall the most attractive neighorhood in NYC in terms of its broad appeal (to singles in their 20s, 30s and 40s as well as families and even empty nesters) if money were no object, but would say it's lack of green space is one of the big negatives. In fact, it's lack of green space along with the fact that it gets a bit crowded are its ONLY real negatives, other than that there aren't a lot of large apartments (but again, if money is no object, this doesn't matter). There are a couple of tiny parks (Washington Square Park does not count since the Central Village is considered seperately) and then the Hudson River path (which has tiny amounts of green space). Really?

Okay so much for the calculator...

I put in my factors (convenience number 1, schools 0 other things in between) and low and behold the neighborhood I live in very happily came up like number 14 while the two areas I USED to live in, and chose not to--were 2 and 5.

Another fun exercise - all you care about are schools. Chelsea is the best place in Manhattan. Umm ... no ... public schools are best in Tribeca, West Village, Upper East Side, then parts of the Upper West Side and Murray Hill.

> inonada - I do live in the LES what makes you think that I do not

putzface, you have to keep your lies straight. Last week, you lived in a bankrupt vegas development with a dry lake.

> Mystically also the West Village has the best park access of anywhere in Manhattan except Inwood.

Problem is, there really isn't any large park to go to. I'd rather have fewer options, but one of them be, say, Central Park...

"That is my point. You bought in expense area that got crushed. I bought in properly price area and did not get crushed"

Yes, Las Vegas... GREAT investment.

lol.

" says that my bets on RE were a lot better than the idiots who bought in UWS, W Burg etc."

Nah, you were pretty much the biggest idiot of them all.

Ericho.... I love when a Porsche beats out a ferarri but only if you factor in $. If money is no object then ferarri it is.

And for anyone who thinks w67 is just a math/ratio guy, let me state central park is 'the' only park for me. Grew up playing in it, my wife runs in it and my kids play in it. And yes I get paying a premium for proximity to CP.

Ranking come and go, but there is a penalty for early withdrawal (post-bubble-coitus).

>>> Mystically also the West Village has the best park access of anywhere in Manhattan except Inwood.

>>> Problem is, there really isn't any large park to go to. I'd rather have fewer options, but one of them be, say, Central Park...

somewhereelse, you're missing the point - you must have reading comprehension issues. I think Greenwich / West Village is the BEST neighorhood EXCEPT for the lack of parks, if money is really NO object. GV is becoming like a classic black tuxedo: other things may come in an out of fashion, but this never goes out of style. The area appeals to singles and families alike. I'm just saying on this study, if you say nothing else is important to you except park space, the Village comes out like #3 overall. This makes no sense to me- there aren't even that many parks in the first place, and the ones that exist are tiny. It discredits the entire study (along with the Central Harlem point I made before), and I say this as a fan of the West Village; you don't move there for the parks. Upper West Side, South Harlem, and UES, you do.

"inonada - I do live in the LES what makes you think that I do not?"

My bad, thought you had said you lived elsewhere.

And the number one city for projected 2010 real estate price appreciation in the nation? LES? No, but you're very very close: Detroit!!! +21.5%

In fact, LES doesn't even make the list:

http://www.housingpredictor.com/best-2010.html

> My bad, thought you had said you lived elsewhere.

Actually, inonada... no need to apologize, you're right.

Putzface bragged about his lake las vegas "deal" for about a year... and kept noting he was by the pool, etc... and now won't own up to it, given that the development went BANKRUPT.

Perfitz simply changes his story to cover his mistakes...

but you were right.

whenever i need a laugh:

jake
about 14 months ago The phrase that caught my eye and resonates with New York is:

"New construction may have slowed sharply, but has not fully ceased. As a result, current supply will be absorbed very slowly, with any sellers facing very difficult prospects."

No petrfitz, the report never mentioned anything about track? housing or blue collar neighborhoods but did say that the 2nd anecdote was from a guard gated community.

But petrfitz help me understand: what exactly is a lake front estate near lake mead??

Is it a lake front estate that's in close proximity to lake mead but on a different lake? help me out.

petrfitz
about 14 months ago actually on both - a private lake out the back door and out the front door lake mead.

jake
about 14 months ago Atta boy! whats the name of the other lake?

petrfitz
about 14 months ago lake las vegas

nyc10022
about 14 months ago So its several miles between the front door and back door?

petrfitz
about 14 months ago no A hole there is nothing built between the front door and lake mead as i sit on the edge of the national park. you continue to prove that you are a moron of great lengths.

jake
about 14 months ago no need to get abusive petrfitz. so just to be clear, this is a single family detached estate with frontage on both lake las vegas and lake mead? must be nice. pool? kidney shaped or lap pool? maybe both - that works. how many car garage?

how much frontage on each lake? and what exactly is the distance from your back door to lake las vegas? and from your front door to lake mead? i mean you make it sound like a tall person could straddle it. and is it a sandy beach along your shoreline or sea wall with dock?

nyc10022
about 12 months ago OH MY LORD!

I was just watching some news piece on Vegas. They covered the Lake Meade Golf Course and the houses around it. Its in such bad shape they CLOSED THE GOLF COURSE. The houses have lsot 50-70% in value!

I swear... I just saw this on CNBC. They were covering the golf course housing bust.

And this was the purchase Perfitz BRAGGED ABOUT!

He said buy Manhattan RE at the absolute peak of the bubble!
AND he bought in the 2nd biggest bubble market, too!

Perfitz is the KING of lousy investments.

nyc10022
about 11 months ago wow, nothing from perfitz....

must be in bankruptcy court

hee, hee