cpi shows inflation over 9% using 1980 methodology

How about businesses? Is it good when no one is buying because they will wait to try to buy for cheaper later?

"To those in debt, maybe. For the rest, it's a great thing"

No, we have many historical cases of this (Japan being the most recent.) It seriously drags on the economy - businesses will not invest, conssumers actually spend less waiting for prices to fall further, wages start going flat, eventually go DOWN. Its not good. no economist, left, right, or center, not one, says deflation is a good long term policy. Not Friedman, Keynes, Mankiw, Krugman, Roubini, not the Heritage Foundation, the Brookings instiute, the Economist magazine, no one. Its utterly idiotic.

What is even more MIND NUMBINGLY STUPID is every single argument Riversider uses about savers losing out in this low interest rate environment go quadruple in a deflationary environment. Zero interest rates for ever with negative economic growth is not condusive to a secure retirement, and keeping cash under th matress is deadly to the overall financial system.

> deflation is a good long term policy

this is what you don't get. Deflation is the typical response of the system after a credit bubble burst. if it helps you to understand it, think of it as a "fever" you would prefer not to have while fighting a disease. it's part of the healing process though, it sends the right signal: "being in debt sucks" for example, till participants "get it". get it now?

the whole idea is that not all is centrally-planned. but that the system is allowed to work through the crisis to generate the right long-term incentives that those guys you believe in (policy makers) will never be able to generate.

in this same line, your policy shouldn't be "not having a fever" but avoiding situations in which you come in contact with sources of diseases, so that your body remains healthy.

in this case is the same, the policy should be to prevent (at the very least, to avoid generating/stimulating) credit bubbles of humongous proportions. the policy response to failing the basic policy shouldn't be "avoid deflation at all costs". it'll happen no matter how much you want to fight it. fighting it is akin to "throwing good $ after bad". check out how much was wasted on trying to support home prices, you'll see 10 years from now what a stupid idea it was (and please include in "wasted" all the taxpayer guarantees for FHA 3.5% mtg during a declining mkt). you are paying for that "deflation fight" that's so futile.

"A rough 10 years for the middle class"

"It's official. The first decade of the 21st century will go down in the history books as a step back for the American middle class.

Last week, the government made gloomy headlines when it released the latest census report showing the poverty rate rose to a 17-year high. A whopping 46.2 million people (or 15.1% of the U.S. population) live in poverty and 49.9 million live without health insurance.

But the data also gave the first glimpse of what happened to middle-class incomes in the first decade of the millennium. While the earnings of middle-income Americans have barely budged since the mid 1970s, the new data showed that from 2000 to 2010, they actually regressed."

http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/21/news/economy/middle_class_income/index.htm

I just read the OMB'S assessment of future economic growht and inflation. They write that we're unlikely to see inflation because the Fed can has the ability to raise rates and head it off. I doubt that, as the Fed now has so much on its books, that should they raise rates they would take huge losses, so for Political reasons, I'm not so sanguine about the Fed's ability to sop up excess bank reserves. When the economy begins to recover it'll be like pouring kerosene on dry paper money and lighting a match.

"...Huggies Price Cut Shows Why Bond Market Backs Bernanke QE3

...Procter & Gamble Co.’s failure to raise the price of Cascade dishwashing soap shows why investors are buying Treasuries at the lowest yields in history, giving the Federal Reserve more scope to boost the economy..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-06/huggies-price-cut-shows-why-bond-market-backing-bernanke-considering-qe3.html

Nope, no threat of inflation today either.

We all know the Fed doesn't give a damn about the CPI level, but feels as long as the core CPI rate doesn't exceed 2% it can go about doing what it pleases(which is to target asset prices), but if the Fed were to argue that making sure CPI stays above zero will keep us out of trouble well..

-----------------------------
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/03/868121/inflation-targeting-back-in-the-frame/

It is our opinion that Ben Bernanke’s “great moderation”, referred to above, was in fact a very dangerous illusion. Collectively, central banks were targeting price stability while allowing financial asset inflation to get completely out of control. Progressively, this resulted in the financial sector dramatically increasing its proportion of the aggregate economy. This in turn eventually led to the distortions between wages earned by different sectors in the economy. Perhaps it can be argued that it was inflation targeting, based on inflation, as measured by the narrow consumer price index, which led to the massive over leveraging of our western economies.

The way forward is to not scrap inflation targeting, but rather to incorporate financial assets such as equities and housing price appreciation into broader inflation indices. In this way our central banks can moderate recoveries before they become truly excessive.

Flawed thinking got us into this mess. But rather than change that flawed thinking, our policy makers are applying it with even more rigour: we have more debt for insolvent borrowers, more financial engineering, more complicated banking regulations, more blaming speculators for everything, more monetary experimentation by central banks. Our policy makers have absolutely no idea what they’re doing, but they’re giving it a go!

The latest from the Fed provides a wonderful example. Undeterred by the latest calamitous failure of CPI targeting regimes (a brief history of which will be presented below), it has announced an explicit 2% inflation target. But why? Would an explicit target have made any difference to the last crisis? Will it prevent the next one? And where did this 2% come from? We don’t know. But we suspect that past uninformed capital market tinkering has failed to control the uncontrollable, and we’re pretty sure these ones will too.

Hey, Riversider!
Did you see the ph41 take-down of w67th on that inonada thread?
She wins the se MVP for Superbowl weekend.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/failure-inflation-targeting-hubris-central-planning-lost-pilot-effect-and-economist-idiocy?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

The first is that inflation is measurable. Einstein once had the words “not everything which can be measured counts, and not everything which counts can be measured” on the desk in his office at Princeton. And although the world might be simpler if it wasn't so, I believe "inflation" happens to be one of the things which counts but can't be measured. The fact is that once money is created you don't know where it ends up. Maybe it will end up in the consumer goods market, maybe it won't. Or maybe it will be multiplied via the financial system into new credit which will inflate asset prices instead. Even then, we don't know which assets.

But suppose we did know where money would end up, how would you weight the assets together into one index? Should stock prices be included in the CPI? If so, what should the weight be? And if you're going to add stocks, why not add corporate bonds too? And what should their weight be? And if you're going to add bonds, why not add house prices, etc., etc.? Isn't it obvious that the rich concept of - inflation - is unobservable? So who said that proxying it with a narrow sub-category - consumer prices - was a good idea?

The latest from the Fed provides a wonderful example. Undeterred by the latest calamitous failure of CPI targeting regimes (a brief history of which will be presented below), it has announced an explicit 2% inflation target. But why? Would an explicit target have made any difference to the last crisis? Will it prevent the next one? And where did this 2% come from? We don't know. But we suspect that past uninformed capital market tinkering has failed to control the uncontrollable, and we're pretty sure these ones will too.

In fact, if such tinkering has in the past been the primary causes of crises, then why won't this latest attempt - the 2% inflation target - be the cause of the next one? There are certainly precedents. Targeting stable "prices" isn't a new idea. The first experiment was actually conducted in the US in the 1920s, apparently successfully. Indeed, so stable were consumer prices that the authorities assumed there was no inflationary threat. And, this brilliant new idea, that stable consumer prices were both a necessary and sufficient condition for economic stability, proved so appealing that the NY Fed adopted it as a policy objective. On January 11th 1925, then-governor Benjamin Strong wrote to a friend:

That it was my belief, and I thought it was shared by all others in the Federal Reserve System, that our whole policy in the future, as in the past, would be directed towards the stability of prices so far as it was possible for us to influence prices.”

During the 1927 Stabilization hearings before the Committee on Banking and Currency on a Bill to amend the Federal Reserve Act to provide for the "stabilization of the price level for commodities in general", the governor was asked if the Fed could stabilize prices more than it had done in the past. Strong replied “I personally think that the administration of the Federal Reserve System since the reaction of 1921 has been just as nearly directed as reasonable human wisdom could direct it toward that very object.”

Like a driver focused on the speedometer rather than the speed, oblivious to the risk that the speedometer might be faulty, they kept their foot on the gas until they crashed. So focused were they on the stability of the CPI (first chart below), and so convinced that it was the be all and end all of inflation, they missed what was going on in the credit markets (second chart below).

I don't like the way you cut and paste whole articles, you are violating the intellectual property of the ad-driven and/or subscription based sites you steal from. Just post the first sentence or two and a link.

Oh get over it, jason.

You've been socking away money ever since you relocated from CA to N.Y.C.

In a few years you will be living the good life in a nice house on the beach in Cali.

And I say : Good on ya, jason

Riversider will wish you well, as well.

rice and beans just got more expensive.
kidney beans up 40% at fairway. $1.19 vs 0.85

columbiacounty, you take this one.

U.S. dry bean markets find themselves in relatively unfamiliar territory as prices continue to reach for the sky in reaction to a small 2011 crop, strong prices for other field crops, and moderate demand. The October 2011 U.S. dry bean production estimate was trimmed to 19.6 million hundredweight (cwt)—down 38 percent from a year earlier and the smallest crop since 2004’s weather-shortened crop. Although yield is projected to be up 1 percent to 17.44 cwt, harvested area for the 2011 dry bean crop is currently expected to be 1.12 million acres — the lowest since 1921. Harvested area is expected to be lower than a year earlier for each of the 18 States included in the estimate, with industry leader, North Dakota, down 52 percent.

http://bigpictureagriculture.blogspot.com/2011/11/dry-bean-prices-rise-as-production.html

"...the attached charts, which Barclays Capital derived from interest-rate swap data, indicate that the market feels the risk of high inflation in the UK and US over the long term remains low, despite record levels of public debt in both countries and the resulting temptation to inflate it away.

In fact, expectations of inflation for the UK and US have been falling...."

http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2012-02-15/chart-of-day-uk-inflation-barcap?ref=email_37316

Specifically, these are not ordinary interest rate swaps, these are INFLATION swaps. So not some inference based on TIP spreads, which RS can claim is influenced, somehow, by QE. No, these are straight-up bets/hedges on just inflation itself. And yet...the bond market, bond investors, corporations that have to hedge inflation risk, and banks all seem to be saying US inflation of between 2-3% over the next five years...

http://www.efinancialnews.com/share/media/images/2012/02/4069998760.gif

...And similar for the next ten.

http://www.efinancialnews.com/share/media/images/2012/02/4069998758.gif

So...no massive hyperinflation, or even higher-than-the-last-30-years-average inflation.

"January Wholesale Prices in U.S. Rise 0.1%...

...The producer price index rose 0.1 percent following a 0.1 percent decrease the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected a 0.4 percent gain, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey...."

Four years later, Riversider and Hayek arestill wrong, and the Krugman type Keynesians and Milton Friedman-type moneterists are still right.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-16/wholesale-prices-in-u-s-climbed-less-than-forecast-in-january.html

this is funny! they're always emphasizing core and removing food & energy. here they do the opposite!!

-------------------------
Updates with economist comment in fourth paragraph.)

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose less than forecast in January as food and energy costs dropped, a sign inflation pressures may remain subdued.

The producer price index rose 0.1 percent following a 0.1 percent decrease the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected a 0.4 percent gain, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The core measure excluding volatile food and energy rose 0.4 percent, more than projected, led by a surge in drug prices.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-16/wholesale-prices-in-u-s-rose-less-than-forecast-in-january.html

About as funny as a guy who's been ringing the alarm for inflation for 5yrs, completely wrong on bubble prices in manhattan, talking gold (another bubble that went up and popped), saying thru the left side of his mouth the re-flation policy of obama is wrong but posts links after link about how rents and prices in manhattan are going up thru the right side of his mouth.

I've read about Jewish nazi sympathizers in history books. Riversider you are the living embodiment of the manhattan re bubble. Every policy that ignites inflation is a worry to a fixed income pensioner like you, except if it happens to pump up your POS coop on 125th street. Go out and get some air. You NEED to air out.

They did it the way you prefer, in other words.

Get lost you crybaby stinkape!

I've been staying at my friend's apt. on w66th Street. You must have been out panting at the fashion week models coming and going from the shows. The area smells stinkapey.

"Ramble At The Ryman" Grammy Award winner for Americana.

www.LevonHelm.com

It was almost a throwaway remark from Sir Mervyn King. At the end of another uncomfortable press conference, he floated the idea that the 2 per cent inflation target has had its day. In the real world, the target had it quite a while ago, given how long it is since prices were rising that slowly, but to hear the Governor of the Bank of England suggest it is as surprising as to hear the German Chancellor urging Greece to get on and devalue (just you wait).

The series of letters from the Governor explaining why inflation control failed stretches so far as to have lost all capacity to shock. Besides, there is now a sporting chance that the Bank will actually hit the target at some point later this year, a moment which would provide a suitable excuse to abandon it. The A-word wouldn’t be used, of course. Instead, there would be much talk of “broadening the remit” of the MPC to take into account credit conditions, growth and unemployment, rather as the Treasury used to claim it was doing when it dictated Bank Rate to the Bank.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/17/886191/mervs-swerve-from-inflation-control/

Riversider... the RULE is WAGE GROWTH.

You bitch and moan about prices.. go LIVE IN MEXICO where your $ goes farther.

EXCEPT FOR RE and EDUCATION (private/higher)... I DON"T THINK $5/gallon gas nor $20 Gap Jeans are outta whack. But I guess if I consumed mass quantities of cream cheese and it went up 10%, well actually NO. I wouldn't' bitch cause I could use Hummus and it's better for my abs.

Gasoline prices are rising at an almost unheard-of pace, and painfully so in California, where the cost for a fill-up now exceeds $4 a gallon in five cities and is approaching that dreaded mark in numerous others, including San Jose and Oakland.

The statewide average of $3.96 on Friday is 25 cents higher than just a month ago and 46 cents more than this time last year. The price jumped a nickel from Thursday, a huge increase, as day-to-day changes are usually measured in fractions of a penny.

Some oil analysts predict $4.50 a gallon or more by Memorial Day on the West Coast and major cities across the United States such as Chicago, New York and Atlanta. Prices in that range could be a major issue in the presidential campaign, especially if they slow the nation's economic recovery.

http://www.mercurynews.com/traffic/ci_19990274

and yet.....still substantially lower than 2008.

http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=24

Nice try columbiacounty. Prices today exceed any prior year's February.

w67thstreet
about 10 hours ago
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Riversider... the RULE is WAGE GROWTH.
You bitch and moan about prices.. go LIVE IN MEXICO where your $ goes farther.
EXCEPT FOR RE and EDUCATION (private/higher)... I DON"T THINK $5/gallon gas nor $20 Gap Jeans are outta whack. But I guess if I consumed mass quantities of cream cheese and it went up 10%, well actually NO. I wouldn't' bitch cause I could use Hummus and it's better for my abs

Videos of w67thstreet working on his abs and chest:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8oYmpdQfcA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuDfv5ZXows

great question, what if the fed is successful in pushing up inflation but not wages...

--------------------------

Ben Bernanke wants prices to rise 2%. There are numerous problems with such a proposal, the first being increases in money supply sometimes lead to asset bubbles and not increases in prices of consumer goods.

Indeed the Fed completely ignored (if not encouraged) the housing bubble because home prices are not in the CPI. A housing bubble and a housing crash was the result.

The second major problem with inflation targeting is prices may go up, but wages may not necessarily follow. Indeed they haven't. Let's start with a graph of 2% price inflation over time.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/huge-problem-in-bernankes-2-inflation.html

"For all the concern that the $10 trillion market for Treasuries is dependent on Federal Reserve purchases to absorb a continually expanding supply of debt, the amount held by investors outside the U.S. has grown even more."

Like Dominos sung about by Jessie J, all of RS' arguments fall down.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-05/aaa-shortage-drives-up-international-holdings-of-treasuries-to-5-trillion.html

Over 2 trillion dollars of QE money from our fed the past 2 years.
Now another trillion Euros for LTRO.

A trillion here.
A trillion there.
Next thing you know, we're talking about real money.

Right. And the market is pricing in inflation of under 3 percent per year for as far as the eye can see.

Considering how the Fed totally missed the housing crisis, why trust their ability to stay on top of inflation?
Bernanke should kiss his lucky stars he came into a Fed still benefiting from Volcker's legacy. Sometimes the genie is a lot harder to put back into the bottle than letting out of the bottle.

here's a brand new idea.

instead of endlessly, incessantly criticizing everything and everybody---how about concrete suggestions for improvements?

so...if you don't trust the fed, who would you trust and under what circumstances?

Part of why so much more money supply has not meant more inflation:

"Chart of the Day: US money velocity hits all-time low
Sebastian Walsh

07 Mar 2012

One of the most important indicators of US economic health, the velocity of money, has hit a 50-year low, which risk consultants warn may mean the US economy is set for a sharp slowdown...."

Chart here:

http://www.efinancialnews.com/share/media/images/2012/03/4070110303.gif

Full story here:

http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2012-03-07/money-velocity-all-time-lows-in-us?ref=email_37551

Jason,
Very interesting read.
Like we're standing on the roof of a house of cards.

Beef Prices really higher(factor out that pink slime)

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/03/is-pink-slime-in-the-beef-at-your-grocery-store/

"U.S. banks bought more government and related debt in the first two months of 2012 than they did in all of last year, an endorsement of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s assessment of the economy that’s boosting demand for bonds even with yields near the lowest on record...."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-12/banks-buying-treasuries-at-seven-times-2011-pace-as-deposits-beat-lending.html

yet again the facts get in the way of RS's 700 entry thread. Interest rates are rock bottom because of supply and demand, not QE. The bond market collectively, be it banks, traders, economists, etc, say inflation will be sub 3% for the next decade on average. And the best RS can come up with is anecdotel bits on this or that prices. Beef is up, sure. Gas too. Natural gas, which heats tens of millions of homes and powers about as many, is at multi-year lows. Electronics and cars are cheaper ever year. Owner-equivalent rent is barely moving. But beef is more expensive, so...Wiemar, here we come!!!!

That's non-sense. The regulators are forcing the banks to buy gov't backed securities.

Even says so right in your article..
------------
New Rules
Lenders have added Treasuries to meet new reserve rules from the Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law and Basel III regulations set by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.

They don't have to buy TREASURIES. They could buy all sorts of things to satisfy Basel 3.

Meanwhile:

"Commodities Drop With Most Stocks on China’s Export Data; Treasuries Climb...

...“Commodity market watchers have cautioned quite some time ago that ‘as goes China so do commodities,’”..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-12/japan-stocks-climb-on-machinery-orders-as-oil-new-zealand-dollar-retreat.html

Commidities AS A WHOLE continue to fall, as does the interest rates on USTs. Remember when you kept arguing about rising commodity prices, like, 300 posts ago?

Here is one index - notice how it is like 30% below its summer 2008 peak, even now?

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DBC:US/chart

The could buy treasuries or MBS. They're buying both.

Yep, Commodities are going down(China is expected to rebalance their economy), but this probably excludes food & energy.

There's a huge difference between correlation and causation..

I guess now we'll just stick with vegies..

http://www.businessinsider.com/sorry-wall-street-but-something-terrible-is-happening-to-the-price-of-a-good-cut-of-steak-2012-3

your cherry picking is stupid. You ignore all the prices going down, again, again, and again, and ONLY pick out things going up. Beef going up, dairy prices going down.

"Milk Price Souring as Record Profit Spurs Expansion of Herds: Commmodities"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-12/milk-price-souring-as-record-profit-spurs-expansion-of-herds-commmodities.html

I clicked on Riversider's link, and look what it recommended for me:
http://www.businessinsider.com/californias-state-treasurer-bill-lockyer-wife-sex-tape-scandal-2012-3?utm_source=sailthrusuggest&utm_medium=rightrail&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=recirc

"...Food costs were flat, the first time since July 2010 that food prices haven't risen.

...Prices declined in several categories, including fruits and vegetables, meats, apparel, natural gas and airfare...."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304459804577285162805322178.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Shut the fuck up Riversider.

(Reuters) - Americans this month ratcheted up their expectations on inflation to the highest level in 10 months and consumer confidence waned, though the economic recovery was still seen on track.

But expectations for inflation in the coming year jumped to the highest level since May 2011 at 6.3 percent from 5.5 percent

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/27/us-usa-economy-idUSBRE82Q0VN20120327

Consumer expectations of inflation are always higher than actual, just like most people cannot name their own Congressman. Next.

The Billion Prices Project, which RIVERSIDER HIMSELF introduced as proof of inflation creeping up...shows inflation LOWER than the official CPI numbers. Which of course the cherry picker will ignore.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/04/01/opinion/040112krugman1/040112krugman1-blog480.jpg

So it seems QE doesn't increase inflation through reserves because banks don't lend reserves(banks lend based on their Capital. It just drives up the price of risk assets, so it does make sense that money exiting treasuries winds up in stocks, commodities and junk bonds. And higher commodity prices are part of inflation.

Yes the biggest component of nyc's finance firms is the price of corn feed.

If only corn feed prices dropped nyc re bubble would come back.

Cost of capital and labor costs have zero effect on inflation.

My R8 is 1/2 off. You call it depreciation, I call it deflationary.

You call the re bubble 'smart investment'. Some would argue it was inflationary you fking ss checking, cream cheese eating fat fk.

U.S. Import Prices Jumped 1.3% in March on Oil, Materials Costs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-11/u-s-import-prices-jumped-1-3-in-march-on-oil-materials-costs.html

Compared with a year earlier, import prices rose 3.4 percent, today’s report showed. They rose 5 percent in the 12 months ended in February

Well, QE is supposed to drive up risk assets. Commodities are risk assets.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/14/business/economy/consumer-inflation-up-modestly.html?ref=business

Consumer prices increased 0.3 percent last month, the department said. Gasoline prices rose 1.7 percent, a slowing from February when costs at the pump rose more than three times as quickly.

Still, workers’ earnings fell 0.4 percent in March after adjusting for the increase in prices.

“The underlying problem of inflation outstripping wage gains remains. That is the danger for the economy in the long run,” said Joseph Trevisani, a market strategist at Worldwide Markets in Woodcliff Lake, N.J.

Wow, 1996 was like yesterday

http://www.nytimes.com/1996/10/23/garden/a-cut-above-the-rest-the-secret-of-butchers-and-bistros.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

At the Redeye Grill, which just opened in midtown Manhattan, sliced hanger steak on a buttermilk biscuit bun has become a big seller. At the year-and-a-half-old Chelsea Grill, grilled hanger steak with a red-wine-and-shallot sauce ''is specifically what a lot of people come here for,'' said Karim el Sherif, an owner. At a Manhattan average of $18 for an 8-ounce serving, grilled or pan-seared hanger steak is uptown (Trois Jean, L'Absinthe), downtown (SoHo Steak) and, for more than a year, at Le Marais, where the steak is both hanger and kosher.

Mr. Abeles says hanger steak's new popularity is reflected in the wholesale price, which has more than tripled in two years. It has gone, he said, from 50 cents to $1.65 a pound (butchers and restaurants now pay more than $2 a pound).

Really?

16 yrs ago is yesterday?

How old were you yesterday?

Yes, RS, the price of steak in Manhattan equals exactly overall inflation.

http://static7.businessinsider.com/image/4f76fdcf6bb3f74475000038-390-237/krugman-inflation.jpg

works out to 10% annualized.

Here's the BLS data, go nuts.

http://www.bls.gov/ro3/apmw.htm

USDA choice sirloin steak, 2.3% inflation since 1989. CPI was 2.8% since 1989.

If you're a fan of the good stuff from Citarella, the article quotes prime hanger steak there at $8.95 a pound circa October 1996:

http://www.nytimes.com/1996/10/23/garden/a-cut-above-the-rest-the-secret-of-butchers-and-bistros.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

You can buy it today for $12.99 a pound:

http://www.citarella.com/Product.asp?SubDepartment=39&Department=11

Works out to 2.43% inflation.

CPI has choice sirloin steak (the closest category) as up 2.92% over the same period.

"Commodities Erase 2012 Gains as Economic Outlook May Dim Demand"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-08/commodities-erase-2012-gains-as-economic-outlook-may-dim-demand.html

I mean, compete and utter LACK of commodities inflation over the past 5 years. The UBS index is DOWN 15% since April 2008.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UCI+Interactive#symbol=uci;range=5y;compare=^dji+^ixic;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Yahoo is your source for the chart??

"Producer Prices U.S. Decrease for First Time in Four Months"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-11/producer-prices-in-u-s-decrease-for-first-time-in-four-months.html

Any day now...2 years after RS predicted it, inflation will be higher than it was, oh, say under Reagan and both Bushes.

"Yahoo is your source for the chart??"

You are a fucktard. Yahoo gets its information from the same places as everyone else i.e. S&P, thomson reuters, etc.

I looked up the chart on my Bloomberg, but since most people on SE don't have a Bloomberg terminal I posted a link to a free link with the same infor. Fucktard.

Europe and China are falling apart. This trumps anything the Fed is doing at the moment. If you want a good analogy for the Fed's actions here, think of a 1973 real wheel drive Buick LeSebre stuck in the mud and Bernanke at the wheel flooring the gas, He might be making the wheels spin faster, but this Buick is going nowhere fast. Unofortunatley anyone unfortunate enough to be near the car get real dirty.

"US consumer prices flat as gas costs fall...

...Over the past 12 months, prices have risen 2.3 percent, the smallest increase in more than a year. Core prices have also risen 2.3 percent in the past year, close to the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2 percent...."

Someday that massive inflation will happen. Someday before I die, which is likely in the next 40 years or so. It may be in another country, but it will happen. Someday. Somewhere.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-05/D9UP4TQO0.htm

2.3% is hardly "flat" in times like these, when save investments like bank accounts and CDs, and even Terasury bills, pay a fraction of that.

It sickens me to see the Fed have an inflation "target" that exceeds what a saver can safely earn. It's like they're openly stating that they want to confiscate your buying power.

It's the price of FIAT money, The gov't controls it and can at anytime devalue it. In this case via negative real interest rates, which are a tax on the saver. It's very nefarious, and another reason why we would be better off with a gold standard, or at least remove the Fed's dual mandate.

"2.3% is hardly "flat""

You are retarded. The headline was CLEARLY referring to sequential price increases. As the first para of the story CLEARLY says - prices were flat versus the month earlier. This is ALWAYS how the CD releases inflation stats.

jason and Riversider sitting in a tree
k-i-s-s-i-n-g because jason really likes Riversider.
If jason ever has a dispute with that guy Target, he will call him a Targetard.

Thanks Truth, you don't know how that makes me feel to have a gay admirer.

By the way, I said FIAT, no FLAT

you're right.

we don't know how you feel about gay people.

tell us.

columbiacounty, the person you expected to look through the window in your shower, was that person gay or straight?

by the way, how did you and the deer enjoy your time together?

Do you always speak for riversider?

Did you see my mouth moving or his?

"By the way, I said FIAT, no FLAT"

Are you smoking crack? 000 was referring to the headline.

what's with you and crack?

"You are retarded."

I may be lazy, but retarded I'm not. Jason, if you want us to read another paragraph linked only in the article, perhaps you should quote it. From what you wrote: "Over the past 12 months, prices have risen 2.3 percent ... Core prices have also risen 2.3 percent in the past year, close to the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2 percent..."

...it looks like "flat" is being used in a sneaky way to describe an inflation rate that is close to the Fed's target, much as the phrase "budget cuts" are used when government budgets either remain unchanged or receive small increases, when certain parties want to see big increases.

No, flat was MONTH OVER MONTH 000! That is clear from the actual article. And in fact, that is the way the commerce department measures inflation, month over month.

Anyway - massive inflation coming...in 2016.

"Oil Set For Biggest Monthly Drop In Three Years On Debt Crisis"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-31/oil-set-for-biggest-monthly-drop-in-three-years-on-debt-crisis.html

Notice RS is mute when commodity prices fall, but is all over it when they go up.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/

2 years later, still no hyperinflation:

"Wholesale Prices In U.S. Fell 1% In May On Cheaper Energy...

...The decline in the overall index was led by a 4.3 percent slump in energy prices that was the biggest since March 2009. The cost of liquefied petroleum fell the most since December 2009, and gasoline prices dropped 8.9 percent, the report showed.

Cheaper Food
The cost of food decreased 0.6 percent, the most this year, reflecting a drop in prices of meat, fruits and soft drinks...."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-13/wholesale-prices-in-u-s-dropped-1-in-may-on-cheaper-energy.html

Yea, the MMT crowd explains the error, Banks sell treasuries and get cash, but the balance sheet hasn't really changed. Bank is still insolvent. And now we have Euro contagion.

"June 14, 2012
Consumer Prices Drop on Energy

...The index of consumer prices, which measures how much Americans pay for everything from a groceries to drugs, decreased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in May from the prior month, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the largest monthly decline since December 2008.

Prices were 1.7% higher than a year ago...."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303822204577466192995671450.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Any day now...MASSIVE inflation...sometime between now and when the zombies fight the aliens for dominion over the Earth.

"Overall consumer prices increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ended in June, matching the year-over-year gain in May.

The core CPI climbed 2.2 percent from June 2011, in line with the median forecast and following a 2.3 percent gain in the 12 months to May."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-17/u-s-consumer-price-index-was-unchanged-in-june-core-up-0-2-.html

ANY DAY NOW RS!!!!!!

Now you're being silly, I've already admitted the error and stated MMT explains it.

While we are at it http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/declining-uk-inflation/

OK RS. So you admit Krugman has been correct about this all along. Because he was quoting Econ 1 textbooks.

You would know it watching CNBC today. They spent 15 minutes discussing how continuing low inflation PROVED that inflation must be right around the corner.

Krugman has his own agenda, big gov't and does not understand MMT. If Krugman was right on the inflation direction it was for the wrong reasons.

UHHHHGH wrong Krugman has been citing Friedman and a Bernake on this for four years idiot. You've used the same fucking words Krugman has!

but riversider is a world renowned anonymous hate mongering lying internet board poster. how can krugman possibly measure up?

"No Inflation Proves Critics Of Fed’s Bernanke Wrong"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-19/no-inflation-proves-critics-of-fed-s-bernanke-wrong.html

"IPhone Price Cuts Send Bond Inflation Bets to 11-Year Low...

...Price cuts on everything from iPhones to Folgers coffee show why investors in U.S. government bonds anticipate low inflation for the next decade even as the Federal Reserve considers injecting more cash into the economy..."

Any day now...hyperinflation!!!!! Gold standard!!!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-04/iphone-price-cuts-send-bond-inflation-bets-to-11-year-low-1-.html

http://azizonomics.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/cpivsnecessities2.png

While many claim that inflation is at historic lows, those who spend a large share of their income on necessities might disagree. Inflation for those who spend a large proportion of their income on things like medical services, food, transport, clothing and energy never really went away. And that was also true during the mid 2000s %u2014 while headline inflation levels remained low, these numbers masked significant increases in necessities; certainly never to the extent of the 1970s, but not as slight as the CPI rate %u2014 pushed downward by deflation in things like consumer electronics imports from Asia %u2014 suggested.

This biflationary (or polyflationary?) reality is totally ignored by a single CPI figure. To get a true comprehension of the shape of prices, we must look at a much broader set of data:

http://azizonomics.com/2012/09/01/the-shape-of-40-years-of-inflation/

Yet the low level of headline inflation has given central banks carte blanche to engage in quantitative easing, and various ultra-loose monetary policies like zero-interest rates — programs that tend to benefit the rich far more than anyone else. Certainly, lots of goods and services — especially things like foreign-made consumer goods and repossessed real estate — are deflating in price. But you****** can’t eat an iPad****(emphasis mine) or a $1 burnt-out house in Detroit. Any serious discussion of monetary policy must not only consider the effects on creditors and debtors, but also the effects on those who spend a larger-than-average proportion of their income on necessities.

http://azizonomics.com/2012/09/01/the-shape-of-40-years-of-inflation/

...And yet again you did not even READ the article, did you RS? You are such a tool. The article mentions iPods yes, but is MAINLY about price cuts for coffee, a whole host of P&G consumer goods, tons of products at Wal-Mart, etc.

READ the shit before you criticize.