NYS Labor Dept.: Unemployment Rate is Declining
Started by steveF
about 16 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008
Discussion about
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/Labor-Department-Says-Unemployment-rate-is-Declining-96659159.html A report from the New York State Department of Labor says the state has seen its first monthly decline of its unemployment rate since April 2009. While the percentage change is small, the unemployment rate dropped to 9.6 percent last month, compared with 9.8 percent in April. This marks a larger change from the same time last year, when the unemployment rate was at a high of 10.5 percent. It squeaks in just below the national unemployment rate of 9.7 percent
If the thread title said "Unemployment rate is increasing" there would have been no less than 25 replies by now.
Pathetic isn't it Socialist? "People" with their own agenda don't care who gets stepped on in their quest to get what they want.
Do you know if the rate is going down because people are leaving the workforce (discouraged) or because the NYS state economy is adding jobs?
As the old saying goes "statistics don't lie...but statisticians do"
(not that steveF is lying, just that it isn't always reliable to read the 'short story' without knowing more background)
excellent concern walter the below helps explain the decrease to some extent....
New York City made some headway in the fight against unemployment by adding close to 15,000 private sector jobs in May. Most of these jobs were created to offer professional and employment services.
RIF Reading is fundamental.
First of all, your posting on a glorious friday afternoon.
Second,it would help if those who post article links actually read the sources before making asses of themselves. It's become routine for moronic second rate writers to get the facts wrong.
There isn't a 10.5 anywhere in this official NYS press release in sight.
And let's stick with NY CITY, the numbers that matter to this board and we have
seasonally adjusted MAY 2010 9.6----- April 2010 9.8 -------May 2009 9.3
And it looks like the majority of job gains are nurses and teachers....look out Trump Tower sales.
Sorry but it's not good news, it's not bad news......it's non news.
Well steveF....
I didn't want to give you the answer first, so I offered you a chance to put it together yourself. Alas, you've missed the opportunity to make a valid point with facts and algebra, instead relying what you read and your bias.
If 806,600 represents a 9.6% unemployment rate, that implies that the workforce in NYS in April was 8,402,083. (806,600 / .096 = 8,402,083)
It follows that in May, the 9.8% rate, or 817,100 people implies a workforce of 8,337,755 (817,100 / .098 = 8,337,755)
So it looks like what really happened is that folks returned to the workforce (about 64,328 of them) and about 74,828 jobs were created. On the surface, that is a good thing and would support your bullish stance on the market. However, we already know that many of those jobs were essentially part-time census workers and those jobs are short lived. Still, they are jobs.
If only you could put away your bias and look a bit deeper into the data, then add some context, you'd have a better chance of making a compelling argument. You may be right, but it may be the wrong reasons.
And if you read any of those clusters of sentences, particularly the third one down, what are they called again?....oh yeah...paragraphs....If you read the third paragraph...."The total nonfarm job count in NY grew by 21,000 (+.2%) in May 2010. This was due to a spike in TEMPORARY CENSUS WORKERS in the state.
And in case you missed where the actual report is from in the article, it's that blue hyperlink in the first sentence of the article. "A report from the "New York State Department of Labor".......
http://www.labor.ny.gov/pressreleases/2010/June17_2010_1.pdf
Of course, even if Steve could understand the article, he is absolutely horrible at applying it.
He used his brilliant findings to buy RE in the bubble, and he's selling it after the huge decline now... and now he's buying stocks after the 70% runup.
Talk about a guy without a clue.