First Manhattan condo auction set for Sunday

Wow. Let's get together and see how low we can get one of those units for.

Any guesses on the under/over?

I'd check this thread which details problems with auction/apts.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/20785-m127-127-madison

Yep. I know. Thanks.

auctions have reserve prices. Your not getting it at a firesale.

never mind, I didn't see that there are no reserve prices.

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Not "First" Manhattan Condo Auction; First in a generation:

http://www.nytimes.com/1990/06/24/nyregion/rapid-fire-real-estate-auction-enters-manhattan.html?scp=1&sq=auction%20west%2090th%20st&st=cse

Fwiw. The bottom of the mkt was 5 yes later 1995, the first year I started buying NYC re, and that bubble was a magnitude smaller than the current one.

We are 2 innings into this one and we already have auctions, quite telling really.

w67, the people who bought Manhattan condos at auction in June 1990 got excellent prices so don't dismiss those that bought then. I recall that EVERYONE recognized a bottom and wanted to buy in 1995. You had to be lucky and fast to score an great apartment once the price trend was up.

Oh, I'm not really going to that auction. But, I'm still wondering: How much do you think those units will sell for at auction?

w67th?

PMG?

willturner?

Over $1.2m for the smaller units would be my guess for a minimum clearing price. That's less than $800 psf. They're very generous sized 2 bd 2 bs condos.

PMG: Sounds about right, to me.

Interestingly, 3 of the buyers in that 1990 article still own (2 recorded transfers, but with 0 transfer tax, so no real change of ownership).

Yes, it is interesting that these fortunate buyers don't see the cycle peak of 2008 as the last opportunity to sell. They recognize that Manhattan is not getting any larger, and is a far more popular place to live and invest. I bet that the 3 who are still holding since 1990 have either refinanced for a lower rate or have paid off their mortgages.

PMG, let me timewarp/point you to 150w 51st the $247.5K 2bdrm bought at auction in 1990. There are currently 45 rentals available and 17 active for sale listings. I will assume the "27 and 17" is the 2bdrm in question. Let's be generous and say $4,500/month, take out $1000 for re tax/maintenance for a net cash on cash return of 17% after 20 years of ownership... okay, but nothing like sailing to Thaiti for, no?

Then let's assume this 2bdrm unit that sold at 10/07 as the toppiest top of the mkt which closed for $860K or a 7.6%/yr return... hmmmmmmmm.... you bought at 1990 at an auction and you think a 7.6%/yr after 17 yrs is "AWESOME"? Remember, I am probably sure these auction astronauts were almost certainly under water for several years and did not cash flow positively for many years after that.

Not in my book, not if you consider the amount of risk inherent in RE....
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/136049

w67, maybe that's not the best example of auctions in 1990. All of 110 West 90th st was auctioned at that time--the whole building. 1 beds went for like $200k then. 2 beds for $300k. A recent low floor 2 bed went for $999k and there are NO RENTALS available, but recently one rented, last offer $3900/mo or 9% net after expenses on cost basis. If the bidders selected a more residential neighborhood by Central Park, like the low west 90s, they were taking a risk, but the low availability today suggests their risk is lower.

Obviously the leveraged returns are high double digits.

W67: I think 7.6% is pretty damn good - what should I invest in to get a return like that today for the next 20 years?

just a little something to think about in a discussion of auctions:
http://theapplepeeled.com/buyers/3-strategies-to-avoid-auction-mentality-pitfalls-in-purchasing-a-home/

will be SO curious to see where prices end up

Avereaged $840 per sqft.

http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2010/06/28/m127_auction_sells_six_luxury_condos_in_20_minutes.php#more

m127 penthouse is finally under contract: http://malcolmcarter.wordpress.com/2010/08/20/unsold-at-auct…se-finds-buyer/

oops. try this link instead: http://wp.me/puZRS-1u7