Myth of the Back-to-the-City Migration

Pundits, planners and urban visionaries—citing everything from changing demographics, soaring energy prices, the rise of the so-called "creative class," and the need to battle global warming—have been predicting for years that America's love affair with the suburbs will soon be over. Their voices have grown louder since the onset of the housing crisis. Suburban neighborhoods, as the Atlantic magazine put it in March 2008, would morph into "the new slums" as people trek back to dense urban spaces.

But the great migration back to the city hasn't occurred. Over the past decade the percentage of Americans living in suburbs and ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704103904575337100515285886.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

They're actually all flocking to New Jersey where you live, right?

If you don't have a WSJ subscription, you can read more of the article here:

http://njrereport.com/index.php/2010/07/06/urban-mirage/

This artcle agrees with everythig I have been arguing. People in the burbs are not going to move to the city for several reasons. First, it is MUCH harder to downsize than to upgrade. Secondly, many people in the burbs cannot sell their houses for their desried price. So rather than take a bath, they will stay put. Thirdly, thos with kids in good suburban schoosl are not going to send them to school in NYC. NEVER.

oh lord, I have so many respnses in my own thrad, I feel like Riversider.

But as far as I can see, good suburban school districts close to the city are as expensive as the city...

Yes, but even in those expensive districts, you get much more square footage for your dollar. You can get 4 bedrooms for $800k. Can you get than in Manhattan?

You left out the exorbitant real estate taxes.
More square feet means more taxes so you better get a good school district. I was looking around out of curiosity and the NJ taxes were greater than my "expensive" common charges + taxes. Not to mention I'd have to buy a car or two, etc.

The taxes are about equal to the maintenance on a co-op.

now let's take a look. you're married with kids and earn $250K... you pay NYC Income Tax of $9,120 per year (3.648%). you then pay another 5-7K, if you're lucky, in taxes for your smallish coop/condo. now doesn't that equal the NJ property tax and a great school for your kids?????

This article cherry picks the data. You can live in "Los Angeles" in a very dense neighborhood that is NOT downtown - i.e. Westwood, Hollywood, or an apartment in Touluca Lake. Etc. The fact is LA proper has held up better than the LA/Orange County area as a whole, and certainly versus the greater Southland area (including San Bernadino, Riverside, etc.)

Same for cities surrounded by LA (but also with dense areas) like the APARTMENT FILLED areas of Beveryly Hills and Weho, Santa Monica, etc. False data = false result.

In FACT Hollywood (which is in LA proper) has areas denser than downtown LA - which is not even mostly residential. Parts of the areas I described are even more dense than parts of Manhattan (certainly than FiDi, Inwood, and even the West Village.)

You know the WSJ ran this article contemporaneously with an article showing big city populations are up, right?

EXACTLY. Big city populations are up, so the author cherry picked the data to look at just the "downtown" parts of various cities. Yes, home prices have not held up as well in NYC below Canal versus say Lenox Hill, but Lenox Hill is FAR more densely populated, while Lower Manahttan has 20x as many people as it did 20 years ago.

"06/23/10
Business

Cities Grow as Housing Bust Slows Movement to Suburbs

Several of the nation's biggest cities saw populations grow faster last year than any year in the 2000s as the recession."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704853404575322751088506996.html?KEYWORDS=big+cities

I think some are misinterpreting the 2 articles. The most recent one says that few peopel are moving from the burbs to the city. The earlier one says that city populations are increasing. However, nowhere does that article say that city populatiosn are increasing due to people moving in from the burbs. The increase is most likely the result of immigrants and peopel from other parts of the country moving to the cities.

"Yes, home prices have not held up as well in NYC below Canal versus say Lenox Hill,..." jason10006

You SOMETIMES have to questions anything someone says when they are trying to tell you Tribeca prices aren't holding up as well as Lenox Hill prices. Jason, not only is every element of your logic incorrect, but the evidence you choose to use to back it up is SO wrong, you should change your name before ever posting here again. And you might want to reconsider ever speaking to anyone ever again about anything.

was this written by weichert realtors of NJ? NY restaurants are still packed like hell... then again that could be beacause people are choosing the Hamptons over Swiss Alps to tone it down??

hmm, let's see, when you say NY restaurants are "packed like hell" because people are choosing the HAMPTONS do you understand that this post is talking about people moving to the CITY from the suburbs and that - get this - the hamptons are NOT the city? If you do understand that then please elaborate, otherwise no response is necessary. I'm assuming you won't respond ever again, hol4.

Another in a line of articles by Kotkin trying to justify his fetish for the suburbs without any actual meaningful data. Downtown L.A. and Miami as examples? I'm surprised he didn't base his opinion on the plight of Detroit.

Does the WSJ editorial page actually have editors?

Just an observation - grew up in Brooklyn, moved to the suburbs. I do not know of a single example where any of our friends' or neighbors' grown children have decided to settle in the suburbs. All are in cities - NYC, Boston, Chicago, etc. Actually, most avoid the suburbs at all costs. Cities are much less frightening (at a loss for a better word) - much less crime than in the recent past. There are an amazing number and variety of social gathering spots - parks, restaurants, bars, etc. Schools improved relative to 20 years ago. Suburban flight now means away, not to.

hi dmag the majority of people who frequent the Hamps reside in the city.. enjoy Hampton Bays this wkend with the rest of Hempstead :)

EXPENSIVE neighborhood are becoming even more desirable. This includes both Manhattan as well as suburbs in CT where the rich people live.

Suburbs where working class people live are sinking in value as more poor people move in.

There is no surge of people moving to undesirable cities such as Detroit.

bob_d, Detroit's housing forecast is for 21.5% price appreciation for 2010:
http://www.housingpredictor.com/best-2010.html

Manhattan? 13.8% down for 2010 alone, at the very top of the "Worst Markets" list:
http://www.housingpredictor.com/worst-2010.html

"You SOMETIMES have to questions anything someone says when they are trying to tell you Tribeca prices aren't holding up as well as Lenox Hill prices. Jason, not only is every element of your logic incorrect, but the evidence you choose to use to back it up is SO wrong, you should change your name before ever posting here again. And you might want to reconsider ever speaking to anyone ever again about anything."

Relax, freakazoid. That includes Fidi, Chinatown and BPC as well. Population up drastically (especially below chambers) but PPSF not at 10022 or 15CPW levels or apprectiation. Below canal is NOT just Tribecca.

"Detroit's housing forecast is for 21.5% price appreciation for 2010:"

And if you believe that, I have some ocean front property in Vegas to sell you.

Detroit has an official unemployment rate of 20%+ with an unofficial rate of nearly 50%. If Detroit saw 21% appreciation in home prices, it would defy all laws of economics.

"EXPENSIVE neighborhood are becoming even more desirable. This includes both Manhattan as well as suburbs in CT where the rich people live.

Suburbs where working class people live are sinking in value as more poor people move in."

How does one who lives in NYC know so much about the suburban housing market?

The 21.5% appreciation for 2010 appears to be market consenus. It doesn't seem so unrealistic considering how hard this area has been hit and the apparent bottoming of the areas prices. Of course if one prefers to base projections on past movements then you'll always project the past which prevents you from recognizing a change in direction.