Top NY Broker Says Market Is Scary

little black arrow point down.

anon3 say:

2003 little black arrow point down.

2004 little black arrow point down.

2005 little black arrow point down.

2006 little black arrow point down.

2007 little black arrow point down.

little black arrows still not actually pointing down, yet.

one day, anon3 get it right, i guess.

after all, even stopped clock tells the right time 2X day.

So do you discredit the reputable sources and their data to back it up in this NYT article?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/19/realestate/19cov.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

This quote from the NYPost article refers to the higher end of the market driven by Wall St bonuses and jumbo mortgages...so yeah, brokers for that end of the market are probably feeling skiddish.

But the article also stresses that the rest of the market is doing well, emphasized by the recent Sunday NYTimes article.

So before posting tabloid headlines, consider the source.

The source of the article, Dolly Lenz, is one of the top brokers, if not the top broker in NYC, so it is very credible. An anecdote from her carries weight. The NYT times article is using data from past year, Lenz is talking about the present. Data on real estate lags by a few months, so if there is a shift in the market, it will take some time for it to show up in the data. Until then, you market cheerleaders can continue shooting yourselves in the foot by bidding prices higher and higher. You are so brainwashed you wont even take advantage of the shifting perceptions to even attempt to get a better deal. Which means, you are either brokers, sellers, or most likely just plain idiots.

I don't see how the NYT article is "using data from the past year" when it observes that inventory is CURRENTLY at a multi-year low and rents CURRENTLY continue to rise. You don't need data from the past year to know what current inventory is; a "plain idiot" can do that using StreetEasy right now. Hell, even a bitter renter could do it.

Bonzo, consider the sourse and the context. Again, the Post article emphasizes the high end of the market and even mentions that the market for <$5m homes is still robust.

The high end is a different market than the "low end" and driven by different factors such as large Wall St bonuses(funny, in Manhattan a $3 million apartment is considered low end).

My 1 br that I closed on earlier this year has gone up based on recent comp sales in my building/neighborhood. Most of these folks are retired empty-nesters looking for a pied-a-terre and young professionals starting out, both of whom are taking advantage of a slowing market, just as the NYT article states.

I think one has to concentrate on the available inventory to determine the health of of the RE market in NYC. If the inventory is high and increasing expect prices to stagnate or decrease. If the inventory is low and decreasing then the opposite may occur. It appear to me the latter is occurring in NYC.

The bottom line is that no matter what way you think the market is going, nobody in their right mind would bid on an apartment today or even next week. The market it obviously in flux and unless you are in dire housing circumstances, a wait and see approach is the only intelligent way to go.

stealth when did anyone know where the market was going when they put in a offer. How does one time the NYC RE market. In and every month since 1999 there were economic issues occurring that would of scare the living crap out of every potential buyer,
Just exactly does one say to oneself the coast is clear now is a good time to buy.
i think the best time to buy in NYC is when everyone is saying don't buy or better yet when everyone is saying wait till the coast is clear. I don't want to buy when everyone is saying buy, buy buy it's a great time to buy.