Yeah 1,999 Open houses for tomorrow.....

Are you taking into account the fact that there are now loads of open houses in the evenings during the week due to the fact that many people are away on weekends during the summer monnths?

he summers in Riverside Park.. pops won't allow him in the Hamptons den ever since he booted him from the family real estate firm.

Oh westie westie westie... I come back from a nice concert in Riverside Park, read the kid 5 chapters of droon and now I have to play professor to you. You who are old enough to know better. You see westie, there were 2000 more apartments on the market this time last year. You do remember last year don't you? Recession/depression we still didn't know, 100's of thousands of jobs axed each month, no credit, fires of hell burning over the horizon, etc. Remember? Well from there the market miraculously managed to claw its way back, inventory was gobbled up, prices stabilized and confidence grew. And now we find ourselves here, in the middle of the hottest summer on record and contracts have been averaging 40 - 50 a day, an easy 1k/mth. The recession ended 6 mos ago, interest rates are dropping and the Fed is hinting of 5 or 6 years of slow recovery, which means what? Can you guess? Your last ace in the hole, rising interest rates, is a bust. In other words you missed the boat again, damn it! Have no fear though, SE still needs a steady voice like yours, tirelessly trying to talk the market down just to keep things interesting and avoid a giant myopic lovefest. Kinda like the right (and left) needs Sarah Palin. Welcome back to the Frigidaire farm Bubba!

So...your conclusion is that the recession is over and it's smooth sailing ahead?

Consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth make it a fact more than a conclusion. Smooth sailing are your words. There are many years of adversity ahead for the US but I'm a believer in the resiliency of the country, although we'll have a hard time getting through it by wringing our hands, hiding in a hole, and blaming everyone but ourselves for the mess.

Spin? Urban Digs Data which you can say is reliable or not, but I am sure is at least consistent has a grand total or 2 new contracts today, i think 8 yesterday....209 for the 7 day average and 835 for the 30 day average. That is the real story of how slow it is

ah yes...the famous numbers make it true. and, of course, unemployment....well, its either a lagging indicator or its.....someone else's problem. i have never suggested hand wringing,hiding or blaming anyone other than ourselves.

my suggestion is prudence and caution; the problem with playing a game of musical chairs is that no one knows when the music will stop. following that analogy, having a chair looks a lot like having as little debt as possible.

Typical weekend stuff. Is it Jane St. dream???

If you have been following for the past month the numbers have been consistently between 30's and 50's daily (except weekends.) Just look at the 1 month trend. It SHOULD be dead, its definitely not.

Why should volume be dead? Don't people get jobs, retire, move, die, grow up, divorce, have children even after bubbles?

fg- by dead i mean slow, which is the typical summer trend.

cc - I happen to be thankful I took some of my cash and bought in the spring of 09 at 17% below a 2005 comp. I did it because of the trend I saw emerging last spring. Buying then went against popular sentiment and was much more risky than it would be today imo. I can still remember the bears falling all over themselves to tell me what a horrible mistake I had made. I'm still not feeling it though and quite happy that my $65k in yearly rent has been reduced by $20k now that I am paying a small mortgage and maintenance. Based on my entry point and the property I bought, I am pretty confident also that my down payment is secure. You have to understand we are not all reckless buyers out here and that the intelligent move isn't always to do nothing and sit on cash. Oh, I get a tax bennie too.

I have 3 groups out today, I'm with one, report to follow. waiting for client at pick a bagel, solid sesame bagel and a 10 for the veg. tofu "cream cheese".Iowa
also loving the Newman garminfone, its no iphone but kills the bb and the gps for driving/golf is perfect.

sorry thats from Keith. Adjusting to new touch key pad (:

spinnaker: Some sellers in Manhattan refuse to get real about the current R.E. market.

Like the owner who bought a condo in 2005,as I described on that other thread. It's not even a "real 2-bedroom". Running a B.S. description of the building and the apartment. Trying to get $799K for it now. Back on the market since June. No lookers, no takers, no buyers.

They could have an open house every day/night -- it won't help. They might be able to sell it, if they were not so greedy and trying to make 100K-150K on the sale.

w67th: If you really do have 80-year-old parents -- good for you!

If they are wealthy -- good for you!!

If you are living with them, and/or they are helping you support your kids; -- good for you!!!

If they don't let you stay at their home in the Hamptons -- so what?

Here in the Hamptons -- lots of my friends ( self-made multi-millions, some with inherited wealth) enjoy your comments. My B.F. worked for every $$$ he has, and he enjoys your comments.

So do a few pro comedy guys. They make lots of multi, multi millions.

The pro comedy guys vote for funniest guy on SE:

#1: Alanhart

#2: w67th

#3: falcogold

#4: spinnaker

#5: Riversider (and he's cool about having his thread totally hi-jacked )

#1 - w67.

Spinny: different philosophies for diff. folks. I wouldn't regret buying in '06 even if prices fall off a cliff. Every day that goes by is another day that I've enjoyed. But I do have a fallback in my socialist motherland, so I understand the Yanks' desire to hoard more savings in a country with v. different social safety net.

Thxs truthy and nyc10023. Not fair comparison. Alanhart is much more cerebral, w67 is much more loinal.

Spinny is kool, but it makes me crack up when he is so upset about being underwater he starts typing in French, Canadian French no less, eh?

Falco is totally poetic.

Now riversider...... Hmmmmmmmm. Let's say I don't disagree with eveything he writes, but quoting a slave humping president as the basis of his political views is sorta f'king funny. :)

w67thstreet
about 22 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse Losing "steam", hey brokerage community?

I say 4 more sundays like this and then tell the "homeowners" ya missed your chance when the lemming juice ran out... followed by 2 weeks of brokerage musical chairs and then back up to 3K open houses.... and so on and so on... till 2003 prices.. .FLMAO... really, really doez anyone think the fall is gonna be better?

this is 67's way of saying something along the lines of this: "now that i have been proven wrong by the market, i will now try and find ANY anectodatal proof that i can possibly can that i am still right-even though i know i am wrong. i will deliver it in a snarky fashion, and try my hardest to poke fun at people in the re industry, so that others who share my dislike of these people will focus on that, and not on the the truth, that i am soooooo wrong. i'll throw in some zzzzz's, purposely mispell some stuff, drop hints about my superior income and education, and hopefully everyone will like me"

his response to what i have written will basically boil down to something like this "wait till i'm right, then i will have shown you"

Uh, Jimmy, whatcha talking about? Price per sq ft for everty category studio to 3BR is down Q2 2009 to Q2 2010. Probably down 20% since w67th has been carrying that tune, plus another 5% lost to the god of negative carry.

Besides, haven't you missed the "bottom" by renting too?

BTW, back with your pre-Jimmy name, were you a bull or a bear?

my pre-jimmy name?

and come on now nada, i think that even you can admit that there is a lot more flash than substance to 67's game. easy enough to carry on with the same message and find SOME proof that your message is right. isn't that correct? he's single minded and high-handed.

nada: in his pre jimmy name, hfs, he was neither bull nor bear, only toilets. why do you bother to engage?

apt23, please get over it, im not hfs, of anyone else.

Truth - if you are out there playing hammock hockey with Carrot Top I'm gonna unplug my SE account. For sure this time.

jimbones---you are hfs for certain.

whom else?

No, I'm not talking about hfs. In one of Jimmy's first posts ever (which pre-dated hfs), he said that he is an old poster. I engage the newly-reformed Jimmy because he presents a RE viewpoint (beyond the obvious fitz-esque taunts). Whether it's fictional or not doesn't matter much.

Jim, past identities aside, are you bull or bear?

On w67th, I bet if he put the bottle down for a moment, he could make a coherent argument. However, many of us enjoy his rather unique style.

cc, you're so far off....i haven't devoted that much time or energy. i am exactly who i have always said i am, a broker, who's focus is on the rental side of the market. an asshole here? yes, but (mostly) in response to being treated like one, so why not. surely you can understand that.

nada, thank you. im a bull, but i will temper it this way: if you buy what you can afford, and you live there for a long time, you will make money on your home in most cases....

w67th: That's Exactly how those votes were compiled! That's the break-down!

Spinny: Whatcha' talkin' 'bout?! We can't even figure out the Carrot Top reference. He doesn't have a house out here, or even visit.

We are talking about the BIG PRO COMEDY GUYS ( and one lady, also a native New Yorker: "SO WHAT, WHO CARES?!")

Jim, I hear what you're saying, but realize you will make money in pretty much all risky assets if you hold long enough.

If you are a bull, how come you didn't buy in the past year?

an unplanned (but welcome) pregnancy....our savings isn't enough to cover a down payment on a two bed/two bath in a school district we'd be happy with. we were well on our way for a nice alcove or one bedroom...of course a couple without a kid can pretty much live anywhere they feel safe and happy and have a convenient commute..

inonada: Special props to you. He's all yours. Bless your heart,inonada.

apt23: Let inonada have at it, if he wants.

You are a good person on SE, too.

The trolls will perish under the bridge.

on that note, to both of you, time to take my daughter for her pre-dinner walk. if we feel up to it, we head as far north as carl schurz park, on the east river promenade...good looking family, pretty blue-eyed infant in one of those ridiculous swedish designed strollers that my wife insisted on, wife nearly back to her pre-baby dress size, and tall drink of water me.....anyway i'll check in post dinner (couple of glasses of sancerre followed by salad/sea bass/cous cous). ciao

Truth: you have to give it to alanhart for the sharp, multi-layered, laugh-out-loud retort particularly when you consider the economy and precision of his hits. however, w 67 wins for pure style. especially since he keeps pushing the envelope on his own module. i like the late night riffs that seem to be fueled by something mellow -- my best guess is jim beam. nothing sharper than vodka. gin would be too messy. tequila would push him off the reservation. not layered enough for anything illegal -- which is out of bounds anyway due to the kids.

except the cc's of synthetic testosterone he has his (closeted homosexual) gym partner needles into his ass to give him that thick-thieghed tiny-testicled look that all 500lb plus squatters strive for....that might account for the wild-eyed fervor...

inonda, i find the typez to enjoyzz w67's contrived and transparentzz stylezzzz generally findzzz carrot top funny, lolziezzz

re: your comment about studios to 3BR down from 09 to 10, you've cited miller samuel, so using his simple Data dropdown, you'd find the opposite for co-op's/condos in Manhattan q4 2009-q2 2010??

Wading through all of this, just to get back to the w67thstreet's point, we are in a bear market ralley. We certainly did have an up since the beginning of the year - at least from what I've seen. So after the natural moves because of marriage, kids, death, divorce, delusional investors, we are probably headed back to weakness. 2003 prices, time will only tell. Bubbles popping is good but deflation is a bit scary to contemplate.

Splaken 2003 open houses today. And the band played on.....

Hey, spinny didn't I read you bought and sold 12 x in your lifetime? Yeah, you absolutely took no part in the 20 yr bubble cycle that is just starting to shut down.

Congrats on hones jr. As a risk averse person, I have a game plan if thi gs go sour with my '06 RE purchase. What is your plan if the market tanks.

ss400kzzzzz, this be the data i'zz jivin', ya dig?

2010 2 792 869 1,073 1,364 2,072 1,051
2010 1 792 893 1,048 1,402 1,835 1,038
2009 4 873 928 1,083 1,417 1,083 1,051
2009 3 722 892 1,032 1,219 1,856 996
2009 2 863 917 1,088 1,391 1,776 1,056
2009 1 906 1,097 1,381 1,626 2,473 1,259
2008 4 877 1,021 1,339 1,772 2,637 1,183
2008 3 1,018 1,014 1,305 1,734 3,076 1,193
2008 2 1,025 1,186 1,442 1,803 2,386 1,322
2008 1 1,033 1,122 1,392 1,933 3,253 1,289

I think you meant Q3 2009. We'll see how Q3 2010 pans out...

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo
confidence index dropped to 14 this month, the lowest level
since April 2009, from 16 in June, data from the Washington-
based group showed today. Readings lower than 50 mean more
respondents said conditions were poor.

yes nyc10023, it is comforting to know our quirky motherland will always be there waiting to embrace us no matter how badly we ignore her.

truthie, dice man?

bubba, r u f'ing serious? of course I took part in the bubble. although one of the 12 was a custom log in the rockies that will still be there by the time my great great great grandchildren are born. kind of a legacy to actually clear land and build something and not just play musical chairs.

spinny: The Dice Man was great in his day (but I haven't seen him out in the Hamptons):

"Hickory dickory dock..."

I HAVE YET TO HEAR ONE COHERENT argument from anybull why a continuation of the RE bubble would be better for society?

spinny, you've got a young family, no? let me assume she is a lovely 6yo like my daughter. I'll play your side and root for a 10% annual increase on a 1bdrm for 20years. Just about the time she is able to finish a medical program and start earning her keep as an intern earning $50K ( that would be FV=$336K/yr, i=10%, 20=n).... do you know what that 1bdrm would cost in 20yrs, assuming we didn't have this "correction"? that $1MM 1bdrm would cost $6.7MM or a monthly nut of $16K (n=30yrs, i = 4%, PV =$5.4MM).. THATZ assuming I gift her $1.3MM. Now that would be more than her entire after tax income! Forget about the monthlies, forget that NO medical program has ever INCREASED it's intern's salary by 10% per annum, not even 3%....

So the only ppl who can "afford" the bubble would be "early bubble" buyers and bottle girlz earning $4K nite, do you want our girlz to become "bottle girls?"

Actually 1999 open houses is down from 2400 a month ago.....that's a SteveF housing boom, at the very least V shape recovery.

w67th: Heck no! You got to do everything you guys can to "Keep them off the pole"!

Listen bubba, cheap housing for the masses is out there, everywhere in fact. Quit hanging out in Kaanapali and Manhattan and you will see. If I were still in the techie world I could buy a very nice 250k 4 br in Richardson or Sacramento with a pool. Please don't tell me you think a fresh faced intern immediately deserves a piece of the priciest rock on the planet. And btw who's talking 10%/yr? If I see 10% in 5 I'll be quite happy.

"You have to understand we are not all reckless buyers out here and that the intelligent move isn't always to do nothing and sit on cash."

Of course, its not intelligent to think the only moves are cash or Manhattan RE....

"Uh, Jimmy, whatcha talking about? Price per sq ft for everty category studio to 3BR is down Q2 2009 to Q2 2010. Probably down 20% since w67th has been carrying that tune, plus another 5% lost to the god of negative carry."

Jeez, yet another bull who somehow "missed" the crah.

somewhereelse: Welcome back again.

"Every time you go away,
you take a piece of me with you..." ("Everytime You Go Away")

ha, thanks t

is this the miller samuel ppsfs? can anybody point to the original source. if these are what they are claimed to be, that is hugely bearish news.... big apartments down still 50% off peak (and nothing less than 30%)

"ss400kzzzzz, this be the data i'zz jivin', ya dig?

2010 2 792 869 1,073 1,364 2,072 1,051
2010 1 792 893 1,048 1,402 1,835 1,038
2009 4 873 928 1,083 1,417 1,083 1,051
2009 3 722 892 1,032 1,219 1,856 996
2009 2 863 917 1,088 1,391 1,776 1,056
2009 1 906 1,097 1,381 1,626 2,473 1,259
2008 4 877 1,021 1,339 1,772 2,637 1,183
2008 3 1,018 1,014 1,305 1,734 3,076 1,193
2008 2 1,025 1,186 1,442 1,803 2,386 1,322
2008 1 1,033 1,122 1,392 1,933 3,253 1,289

I think you meant Q3 2009. We'll see how Q3 2010 pans out...

that includes co-ops and all of manhattan - above 96th reverse white flight to all the new dev in harlem/wash heights

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/04/white-population-rises-in-manhattan/

"that includes co-ops and all of manhattan - above 96th reverse white flight to all the new dev in harlem/wash heights"

severely undercuts the "prices didn't crash" argument...

SWE: I might be missing something, but I don't see any PSF figure in that list that's currently off 50% from peak. And some categories are less than 30% off (e.g., studios, which are around 23% off, and 1 BRs, which are around 26% off). Closest to 50% off I think are 4BRs which are off 36%. And the 3000+ PSF numbers for 4BRs in some quarters in 2008 were pretty stratospheric and probably due to very few sales, judging from the enormous Q to Q variability even in that year.

Miette
about 2 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse SWE: I might be missing something, but I don't see any PSF figure in that list that's currently off 50% from peak. And some categories are less than 30% off (e.g., studios, which are around 23% off, and 1 BRs, which are around 26% off). Closest to 50% off I think are 4BRs which are off 36%. And the 3000+ PSF numbers for 4BRs in some quarters in 2008 were pretty stratospheric and probably due to very few sales, judging from the enormous Q to Q variability even in that year.

you're not missing anything. this is a permabear the-only-good-news-is-glum-news post. ANY evidence of a stregthening market is dismissed as propoganda by the brokerage community. even wonder how as an industry we can be so hapless (when that suits some of the posters here) and yet on the other hand absolute masters of every major media outlet in nyc?

my daughter had a hissy fit bc her dress didn't have enough colors.

SWE: build your own tables here:

http://aggregate-data.millersamuel.com

On the large apartments, too few data points to make any sense, highly subject to skew from outliers. Even the smaller apts suffer from some of the same issues, but it's a much larger sample size.

"ANY evidence of a stregthening market is dismissed as propoganda by the brokerage community."

Jim: two points on this.

First, the "newspapers" have made a much larger deal about the 2-3% rise in rents (in line with inflation) than was ever made about the 20-30% fall off a cliff in 2009. The much-lesser coverage of the much-bigger news story leaves intelligent people suspicious.

Second, you've been flogging the "rents are rising" story since late 2009. It was during these same times that the tregny/citi reports show the lows in the market, which did not really until we got into the summer rental season.

Now add to that the fact that you weren't here announcing the much bigger story back in 2009, when you were on this site with some other name according to your own statements, and your credibility is as low as the one-sided news-cum-ad-promotion RE sections of newspapers.

If you tried to track rental prices according to articles in the NY Times RE section, you'd find that the stories paint a picture of rents having doubled since 2000. Yet the data shows it roughly flat, not even keeping in line from inflation (albeit from a cyclical high in 2000 vs a cyclical low in 2010).

You're a smart guy, no? What gives here?

When a broker out there who has some credibility makes a statement, that's what I believe.

Select a Region
Select an Area of Manhattan
Select an Housing Type
Select a Measure
Choose Your Reporting Options

Starting Year Ending Year
Display annual data? (default = quarterly)
Bookmark this Report

Year Quarter Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4+ Bedroom All
2010 2 773 875 1,084 1,312 2,271 1,067
2010 1 833 916 1,099 1,374 2,218 1,098
2009 4 960 925 1,102 1,535 1,356 1,088
2009 3 704 899 1,024 1,330 1,615 1,015
2009 2 786 893 1,015 1,212 1,894 990
2009 1 812 1,021 2,074 2,454 2,878 1,581
2008 4 882 1,018 1,495 1,889 2,509 1,279
2008 3 1,098 973 1,383 1,925 3,027 1,267
2008 2 982 1,166 1,694 2,289 2,925 1,476
2008 1 1,116 1,129 1,632 2,418 4,209 1,534

thatz good porn... $1534psf to $1098psf in 2 yrs...

thats all sales on UWS from 1qtr 08' to 1qtr 10'....

nada, what i have been saying since late 09 is this: vacancies are falling, concessions dissappearing. which will lead to higher rents..indeed it has, rents are up 10% or more on most of the buildings i track (you admitted to this) since let's say january.
if they fell 20% over an 18month span, but have now, really since may, come up 10%, that is worth discussing.
and, you may not remember, but the press absolutely ate all of this up when it was on it's way down.....

Jim, I don't remember the press saying a whole lot, nor you, of the crash.

Two questions for you:

1) From actual prices you see, where do you think rents are compared to 2000?
2) If you followed the NY Times as your source of information, where would you think rental prices would be compared to 2000?

> I might be missing something, but I don't see any PSF figure in that list that's currently off 50%
> from peak

My bad, had the lower number in the denominator.

This is the change from peak to current:

Studio - 23%
1 bed - 27%
2 bed - 26%
3 bed - 29%
4 bed + - 36%
overall - 20%

Shows that the recovery in prices claimed doesn't really seem to be there, and shows that blend has a huge impact.... that every category declined by 23% or more, yes the overall is only 20% down. If categories had equal weight, its down 28%.

> SWE: build your own tables here:

> http://aggregate-data.millersamuel.com

thanks

this is very cool. btw, if you run the median per category numbers for manhattan

Studio - 18%
1 bed - 20%
2 bed - 24%
3 bed - 40%
4 bed + - 61%
overall - 12%

goes to show the blend is deceiving us. All categories are for the most part 20% off or more.

and this was peak down:

Studio - 25%
1 bed - 21%
2 bed - 29%
3 bed - 48%
4 bed + - 90% (ok, probably not statistically significant)
overall - 9% (clearly shows the blend at work)

Intersting... that 1 beds have only bounced back 1%. Guess its not time for the balloons yet.

apt23 are you a mom?