Data Causing the Screams - Declines by Category

darn, left one number off. here is the PPSF again with the last number:

Studio - 23% off peak current (30% off peak at last trough)
1 bed - 27% (27%)
2 bed - 26% (28%)
3 bed - 29% (37%)
4 bed + - 36% (67%)
overall - 20% (25%)

okay... I dont' want to admit to nyc10023.. that example was off... so i'll post here SWE... yeah, what's funny is that in my "market' the 3bdrm and above... I've definitely seen 50% off from peak. But we haven't stopped falling....

When you look at the quarter over quarter stats, it goes to show that there is very little data in the larger apartments... so you'll get weird swings. Which also shows why its helpful to not blend the numbers.

SWE,

Thanks for posting this data, I agree completely that the median number is deceiving and have tried to convince folks of this in other threads. Keep up the good work!

While I'm at it, if you'll allow me to hijack the thread, I'd like to grind another axe. I have had heated debates with a multitude of folks who all insist that the Case Shiller Index is completely irrelevant to Manhattan since the properties CSI covers differ dramatically from Manhattan inventory. I maintain that Manhattan does not have magical qualities unique unto itself and is part of the same NY Metro market and should follow similar trends.

For the record, as of the May 2010 CSI NSA data released today, CSI NY Metro is now down 21% from peak.

I expect that the June 2010 CSI NSA should show another slight increase as a tailwind from the expiring tax credit. The data presented by SWE shows a 20% decline from peak in PPSF for data at the end of the June data for 2nd Quarter 2010.

If the June 2010 CSI data gets the same 1.38 index bounce from May to June, as it got from April to May, this would put the CSI Index at -20% as of 2nd Quarter 2010 - the exact same number as the Miller-Samuel data presented by SWE above. From a rational, statistically-driven viewpoint, this would seem to confirm that Manhattan follows the same trend as CSI.

Of course, there are alternative viewpoints on this subject from those who dismiss CSI as irrelevant to Manhattan and they will certainly claim that this is not corroborataion but purely coincidental and just a statistical aberration...

http://theapplepeeled.com/buyers/how-relevant-is-the-case-shiller-index-to-manhattan-and-nyc/

What are the pros and cons of the CSI as it relates to NYC? Let’s start with the cons, first (numbers crunched from StreetEasy, Miller Samuel and Property Shark data).

Cons

Does not include co-ops: Among purchase properties, co-ops represent approximately 65% of Manhattan inventory, yet represented 45% of sales that took place in 2009.
Does not include condos: Among purchase properties, condos represent approximately 30% of Manhattan inventory, yet represented over 50% of sales in 2009. [Note: Shiller has created a condo-specific index recently, though these numbers are not incorporated in the CSI, itself.]
One large chunk of data omitted: When we combine co-ops and condos, as a percentage of 2009 activity, they represent 99% of sales in Manhattan, 46% in Brooklyn, 42% in the Bronx and 40% in Queens. That’s quite a significant amount of data that’s in no way included in the CSI.
Does not include new developments: New development sales (all of which are condos or condops) made up fewer than 20% of overall sales in Manhattan. Therefore, new construction in established markets or emerging market activity is not captured.
Does not include multi-family dwellings: While less of a factor for Manhattan, multi-family dwellings are certainly material in number throughout the outer boroughs.
Skewed towards volume: The theory goes that smaller homes tend to have more turns per period. Therefore, since larger homes turn less often, data will be skewed in either direction by when these larger homes do move.
Excessively large footprint: The counties included in the NYC metro area are many. Should conclusions about Manhattan trends be made off a single-family home sold in Passaic, NJ?
Connecticut: Fairfield and New Haven
New Jersey: Bergen Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Ocean, Passaic, Morris, Monmouth, Middlesex, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren
New York: Bronx, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam, Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, and Westchester
Pennsylvania: Pike
Pros

Same to same: It actually tracks changes in value of the same home over time. Average and median prices usually published on a quarterly basis are difficult to interpret based on the size and quality of what sold in that particular time period.
Not including new construction in the mix is a good thing: Overall, new development units tend to be larger and more expensive, thereby skewing trends upwards the greater percentage of sales they make up. (The same goes for remodeling and house upgrade trends, nationwide.) Analyzing average sales prices alone may therefore provide a false market high because it does not fully reflect the cost of improvement. Furthermore, the fact that contracts were signed on average 12-18 months prior to closing makes it an excessively lagging market indicator.
It bypasses the size issue altogether: Other methodologies of tracking housing values divide house prices by the number of square feet to create even comparison of homes by size. Yet, in NYC, as we’ve recently read, square feet are far from static and can vary quite significantly

Takeaways

A Manhattan market reflection it is not: The mere fact that 99% of the sales in Manhattan are excluded, along with about half of the sales in the outer boroughs, makes the CSI tangential, at best, in analyzing NYC trends. What is interesting to ponder upon, however, is the relationship between the single-family home sales and condo/co-op activity. To the extent that anomalous times require a more macro, national perspective, for as local as real estate is, the CSI serves as a valuable yet limited starting point for overlaying national trends on top of local NYC dynamics.
Best for anticipating longer-term swings: While there is arguably little predictive value of this or any index for near-term conclusions, the index becomes much more useful for analyzing long-term trends. This is particularly the case during times when we are far away from historical norms and equilibrium levels, as we have been.
Far from perfect yet still the most relied upon: Making sense of housing statistics is no easy feat. As such, every methodology will have its pitfalls, as does the CSI. That said, as imperfect as it is, the repeat sales method continues to be regarded as the gold standard. The key is to understand its strengths and limitations as you read the conclusions drawn from headline numbers.
Laudable intentions: We must not forget the intentions behind the tracking and analysis of such data: adding transparency into the system and empowering all end-users to make better decisions, whether it’s buyers, sellers, agents or even the government as it looks to create policy. The great news is that the trend is heading towards more and better data, and we must recognize and encourage that … it’s just not perfect quite yet.

RS,

Yes, I've debated Honeycrisp - who wrote the article you cite - at length. She's a broker journalist, not a statistician. I agree with Shiller - a statistician - who has argued that similar goods in the same market should follow the same trend.

If you were to track the number of sales of yellow cars versus red, you might find slight variations over time as red and yellow become more or less popular, but in all likelihood, the prices will "co-vary."

There could certainly be fundamental changes in the relationship between product categories (single-family homes vs. coops/condos) but I've seen no consistent evidence to support this. The Empire Institute for NY State Policy released their silly little study a while back claiming the middle-class was abandoning NYC in droves because of high taxes. Their study ignored their own evidence that the middle-class folks they tracked were leaving for NJ and CT, which are arguably HIGHER tax states than NYC/NYS...

I am not a statistician, but the fact that S&P ignores so much of Manhattan would make me want to discount its value. Of course I do believe over longer time horizions the differences would matter less.
And in a strongly down market should we have one the moves would tend to gain correlation.

Flmao. I had a great stats prof. Why do we need stats? Well munitions is a great example. Early in WWII, the us found a significant portion of artillery was falling short and killing our own troops. So how do you ensure that the munitions would be accurate to a certain range wo, well testing every munition? Well that's where stats come in, you can in fact predict the future.

My

"Thanks for posting this data, I agree completely that the median number is deceiving and have tried to convince folks of this in other threads. Keep up the good work!"

thanks, and you are welcome. I did it for myself too, very interesting stuff.

My prof was part of a team of statisticians from that went back and forth from the munitions factory that would tighten certain aspects of the production of munitions, say the amount of gunpowder, or quality of steel etc. And they could within a certain confidence interval state 99.999% of these munitions would fly a certain distance. Now how does this relate to NYC re? Well from where I sit, you can see that when rents go down housing stock prices must go down, and when foreclosures are on the rise housing prices must go down. In this I am 100% certain.

Given the continued decreases in rents and increasing foreclosures in manhattan, I AM 100% NYC re will continue to fall. See not that much harder than predicting where that 1000lb bomb will land after traveling 20k feet.

"A Manhattan market reflection it is not: The mere fact that 99% of the sales in Manhattan are excluded, along with about half of the sales in the outer boroughs, makes the CSI tangential, at best, in analyzing NYC trends."

Of course, the NYC CSI number is within 1 percentage point of the Manhattan median PPSF..... 20-21% off peak.
Coincidence?

> Well from where I sit, you can see that when rents go down housing stock prices must go down, and when
> foreclosures are on the rise housing prices must go down. In this I am 100% certain.

w67, care to venture how far down from peak?

I think I figured out why some folks are having such trouble with these numbers... they don't get the math...

LICC on the other thread: "sme wants you to believe that if every single category has a median [DECLINE] greater than 12.3%, that the median [DECLINE] for all the points in the combined categories can be 12.3%. This is impossible. People who understand numbers know this"

I think thats a lot of this... apparently some folks don't get how price changes for a shifting basket of goods overall can be lower than or greater than the respective price changes in each good.

call me w6,

Well seeing we are down 20% w/o
1) a significant amount of foreclosures;
2) rents continue to decline unabated, contrary to what Jimnutz states (who is too busy trying to hold onto his listings);
3) the yield curve trade (fund short/lend long) and credit arbitrage (borrow from fed at 25bps lend at 300bps for agency debt) which are starting to flatten out or will soon be eliminated;
4) new fin regs that take huge chunks of easy money from debit card processing out of the equation from all banks (mostly in NYC);
5) continued muddling thru of the great recession (employment is a lagging indicator);
6) nationally, 18.9MM homes sitting empty (well how do ya fill them empty homes, ya buy in foreclosure then rent them OUT! =>lower rents );
7) still 10% of population that have NOT accepted their bubble $100K + salary will NEVER come back;
8) an aging population that will beg out of the equity market at every up turn;
9) huge downpayment risk due to unexpected increase in interest rates, when no one is looking thatz when interest rates usually bites ppl in the azz (i.e. your dp relative earnings when chking pays 10% is gonna hurt, not to mention the cash flow king is much much more powerful when interest rates or cost of money is sky high and not artificially low ala Geitner/Bernie);
10) NYC always capitulates later and harder;
11) my experience picking up bargains post 1989 recession ( I bought post 1995);
12) knowing this bubble was 10x more leveraged and more irrational than 1989.

My statistical finger in the air is most likely 50% down in the next 2 years (total of 50% in addition to 20% already baked in). Sorta bullshit # as most 4+ bdrms (my market) are already down 50% already, but by all relevant statistical measures, I expect 50% down from peak of 2007/2008. Who laughed when I said 50% down and $500psf?, I believe that was one of my earliest predictions on SE. Enjoy the fking ride.... it's a shitstorm for anyone on the bubble or thinking it's coming back.... that is a westie guaranteeeeee.....

w67th, the lemmingz are eating up the 3+BR market of late (22% of sales in the past year, which is extremely unusual). I don't expect it to continue, obviously.

w67, good points. I'm not sure I agree with the 50% conclusion, but I would not be surprised by continued declines, especially seeing the recent numbers... and that being with Q2 closings partially coming from the run up to 11k. I have to figure Q3 is going to be pretty interesting.

http://aggregate-data.millersamuel.com/

Year Quarter Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4+ Bedroom All
2010 2 792 869 1,073 1,364 2,072 1,051
2010 1 792 893 1,048 1,402 1,835 1,038
2009 4 873 928 1,083 1,417 1,083 1,051
2009 3 722 892 1,032 1,219 1,856 996
2009 2 863 917 1,088 1,391 1,776 1,056
2009 1 906 1,097 1,381 1,626 2,473 1,259
2008 4 877 1,021 1,339 1,772 2,637 1,183
2008 3 1,018 1,014 1,305 1,734 3,076 1,193
2008 2 1,025 1,186 1,442 1,803 2,386 1,322
2008 1 1,033 1,122 1,392 1,933 3,253 1,289
2007 4 905 1,036 1,345 1,838 2,211 1,180
2007 3 920 1,008 1,252 1,586 2,412 1,144
2007 2 938 991 1,169 1,499 2,440 1,099
2007 1 926 930 1,146 1,430 2,272 1,070
Yes bjw, I believe when something that used to be priced at $3,253psf goes to $1,835psf, there will be an increase in activity. Yeah you remember the good old days on the ending of 2007, when the national economy was falling down like a drunken sailor with syphilis and NYC was till falling over themselves to leverage up to the tits?

Let's see, it was put in a bid way way above ask, then get in room with the other 10 way way above ask bidders, 3 hours to write an essay of why you deserved the apt, then a rectal exam by the co-op board, then who's baby is cuter contest followed by "who's wife" has the firmer set of tits contest and finally the measurement of the penis (flaccid and then hard).... yeah the good ole days....

FLMAO...

w67th, obviously the pricing has a lot to do with that. Those bidding war days are over, but that's old news. I do think it's an interesting trend with the larger apts though. Are families going for it at these prices and committing to the city? Or are buyers who never really imagined going for anything larger than a 2BR the ones deciding to go for it? Probably some of each, but I'd be curious which one is having the bigger impact.

Now for the BIG question: what will it be like to live on Bubba's Frigidaire farm when the bomb lands squarely in his lap?

3 br's the biggest emerging sector of strength. OUCHEEEEE! Now that's gonna hurt!

look bjw, I must've mentioned this bf, but unit 'combinations" is a function of a bubble mkt in nyc re. It only occurs when 1+1 =2.5 or 2+2 = 7, one of the stats that I am looking for bf the bottom is when ppl that have combined units start to reverse the combinations to unload the units individually.

Look at it this way, if two 800 sq ft apts can be bought for $2MM, does it make sense to buy a 1600 sq ft apartment for $3MM? I've always said it's a bottoms up mkt in nyc, 1bd/studios support the 2bdrm mkt or the 2bdrm 1.5 bath mkt... not the other way around.

The only smart trade in this market (if your wife is holding sex hostage and telling ya to buy), is to do place hold and move up to the dream spot in 2-4 years... so if you are looking at low 60's cpw 4bdrm ($5MM unit)... bite the $1.5MM 3bdrm near 96th and ride out the equity wipe knowing you are not taking as big a hit as the moron on 67th and CPW or....... ya can just rent....

Better get in line early bubba, is there a fluffer category in the yellow pages?

I always wondered about fluffers? all work and no glory... I don't understand it.... -shrug- oh well

Bf I forget, do you think I can install a forever pool on this ph? All I gotta say, would much prefer the PH to the H line at the 1965 Bway at 2007 for $2.5MM.... Thank allah for the overly ambitious RE BORKER who won that contest...

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/536591-coop-243-west-end-avenue-lincoln-square-new-york

ah. crap never even got to see it... oh well... lots of pretty girls coming later in the party.. I believe these listing are the "fluffers".. .how do you say fluffers in canadian french? : )

The snowshoeing sap collectors down in the maple forest referred to them as dur surs fabricant.

"Look at it this way, if two 800 sq ft apts can be bought for $2MM, does it make sense to buy a 1600 sq ft apartment for $3MM?"

Depends, doesn't it? If you need to spend close to $1m in cash and headaches to reconfigure and renovate the 2 units to make them a logical 2 or 3BR space, then yeah, it can make sense (I'm not saying it costs that much, this is a hypothetical based on the numbers you gave). Besides, how often does this really happen? Is it an appreciable trend, even in bubble times?

"I believe when something that used to be priced at $3,253psf goes to $1,835psf, there will be an increase in activity"

agreed. and yet we're surprised...

Actually 3BRs went from $1,933 to $1,364. Those numbers are 4BR+ only. $1,364 is still in line with bubble ppsf for 3BRs, so yes, the unprecedented number of sales is indeed surprising. What's your point?

man i can't wait for bjw/swe to meet in person... and then start making out in the corner

I did say "4+"

and to the forever question of "house rich, life poor" => $2.5MM flex 3 at 2007 vs. $1.8MM PH 3bdrm/3bth at 243WEA at 2010 and a 53foot Swan just bobbing up and down in nj for $389K.....

http://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1989/Nautor-Swan--1965296/Liberty-Landing-Marina/NJ/United-States

Oh where do i spend all this equity that I didn't waste by being a lemming.... ?

> man i can't wait for bjw/swe to meet in person... and then start making out in the corner

He's been trying for some time, but, sorry, short asian men aren't my thing.
;-)

> I did say "4+"

shhh.... numbers confuse him.

> Oh where do i spend all this equity that I didn't waste by being a lemming.... ?

baseball cards

If you were to track the number of sales of yellow cars versus red, you might find slight variations over time as red and yellow become more or less popular, but in all likelihood, the prices will "co-vary."

No thats like tracking Hundais and even though they are 10% of the market make assumptions about BMW's

one final thing bjw. If $2MM buys you 2 1bdrms, wouldn't it follow that you could buy and additional 800 sq ft 1 bdrm for $1MM? So you'd have three 1bdrms or 2400 sq ft for $3MM versus a 1600 sq ft apt for $3MM. If you could arbitrage between the two scenarios and given it is almost always the case getting an additional bdrm cost way way way less than getting an additional a new full 1bdrm rental, that you should be able to rent out the 3 1bdrms and use the funds to rent a 1600 sq ft whatever bdrms you need?

So on a cash flow basis and comps basis, we are in a huge bubble of incredible stupidity as evidenced by a 20% drop w/o even that many out and out foreclosures in manhattan.

Okay class.. .c u tomorrow and read chapter 7.

and plus have gobs of money left over... under that arb scenario.

"I did say "4+""

My numbers were for 3+. 4+ data seems a bit sensitive to skew, since there are relatively fewer of those properties up there.

You are losing your magic touch, W67. 243 WEA v. 1965 Bway? I know more than a few people who would not deign to go W. of Bway for any $.

I was one of those! Then someone bought me 53 Ft swan and shoved $400k down my pants. Now I think I can walk! That plus it gets all weird with B'way crossing over Amsterdam down there.

One other thing, ppl that can't go west of broadway have high probability of being house rich, life poor. Just saying.....

W67: wait a sec, if you didn't have to make a tradeoff, where would you live? BTW, 243WEA ph1703 sold for 20+% less in '07.

damn... see what I mean about not looking past broadway in 2007... I learned my lesson... holy crap nyc10023... I'm gonna pay you 1% just to vet my choices... : )

You mean if I had all the $$$$? or within spitting distance or if I said I wanna be HOUSE RICH and life poor?

this is like a circle jerk for nerds

and you're in the middle of the circle.

actually, the nerds were on track... which would exclude me from your stmt... leave my thread alone.

As if being called a nerd is an insult.

W67: as in don't change the game on me now, dude. I had you pegged as Bway and E. of Bway guy high 60s to low 80s, max. I was confused by the Ardsley apt choice (LMN is bad combo, no light, don't go there).

I was expounding on my latest RE theory to my partner. I was lured by bubble prices to the cheap tracts W. of Bway. My mistake. Should have had the patience to wait for that park block TH to float to me at 300/sqft, all cash. Doh, and I don't even have the excuse of marital relations.

yes yes, nyc10023... but recently my wife has inquired on the possibility of multi-coastal-multi-cultural living.... given the huge drop in manhattan re prices and the other spots that are possibilities as we firm up kids school or schools... we are awaiting decisions and trying on a lower priced 3bdrm (further north)... see if that opens up buying geitner's house for 1/2 => having a "weekend" house in larchmont, manhattan 3bdrm and the third coast option for summer vacas.. or everything in reverse.... so you see.... I am very very confused.... or I could just keep renting for another year. :)

Like i said, someone very dear to us just dropped $6MM on a summer home on the water 1 hr away and a ridiculous pad south of 59th street.... it's true, in nyc every story is about RE :)

Yeah, it's the summer talkin' I want 3 homes right now, but I won't after September. Beach house and house back in my commie homeland. Travellin' is awful once the weather turns. I don't care how many nannies, mannies, in-laws you bring with you.

Don't compromise if you don't have to.

> this is like a circle jerk for nerds

Yes, damn statistics! I know how those bother the brokers...

> As if being called a nerd is an insult.

I love those commercials that say its ok to be a nerd. And a friend was watching that damn show about pagents.... even the idiot pagent trainer (?) was telling the poor 5 year old "you have to marry a nerd... because they will have money later".

Take the Case Shiller NY Condo Values index subtract 6% from the May 2010 reading to account for buy/sell transaction costs and you get a value of 171. Go back through the index to find the last time the value was below 171, that gets you to September 2004. This suggests that if you bought after September 2004 you will lose money if you today.

Of course this is adjusted one way or the other based on your mortgage rate,luxury tax and tax situation (personal and property), your spectacular or crappy deal making ability, etc... but I have always used this statistic, "when would you have had to buy to break even today", as a baseline for determining how many people may be underwater and in denial (yes, I know what I just said...)

^^^ I mean minus 6% is a value of 189 not 171

interesting...

80sman. Very interesting. Jibes with my feeling 2005 pricing was clearing this spring/summer. My gut check is 2004 solid in fall 2010, 2003/2002 pricing by June 2011.

But all those who owned got to experience the psychic benefit of being very wealthy on paper for a couple of years. How does that fit into your "math"?

same way it fits into the value of dotcom options you didn't (or couldn't) exercise and sell in '99.
It doesn't.... (outside of potentially paying some taxes).

To update a previous comment from 5 weeks ago in this thread supporting an argument by somewhereelse, I stated:

"For the record, as of the May 2010 CSI NSA data released today, CSI NY Metro is now down 21% from peak.

I expect that the June 2010 CSI NSA should show another slight increase as a tailwind from the expiring tax credit. The data presented by SWE shows a 20% decline from peak in PPSF for data at the end of the June data for 2nd Quarter 2010.

If the June 2010 CSI data gets the same 1.38 index bounce from May to June, as it got from April to May, this would put the CSI Index at -20% as of 2nd Quarter 2010 - the exact same number as the Miller-Samuel data presented by SWE above. From a rational, statistically-driven viewpoint, this would seem to confirm that Manhattan follows the same trend as CSI.

Of course, there are alternative viewpoints on this subject from those who dismiss CSI as irrelevant to Manhattan and they will certainly claim that this is not corroborataion but purely coincidental and just a statistical aberration... "

The June 2010 CSI (NSA) data came out today right about where I had expected it to be a month ago. This puts the drop from peak in the CSI NY Metro at -20% at the end of 2nd Quarter 2010, pretty much exactly the same numbers as SWE calculated for Manhattan from Miller Samuel data.

A very curious coincidence given the number of times that CSI has been called irrelevant to Manhattan...

P.S.

For the record, CSI shows increases for NY Metro for both May and June 2010.

Perhaps the CSI-haters, who usually seem to be of the opinion that Manhattan RE always (magically) goes up, can at least agree with me that CSI is relevant when it goes up. I'll just assume we will start disagreeing again next month when it starts going back down...

and back down methinks it will soon go...hard

my gut is rumbling...big declines over the next 9 months

please embarass me if i turn out to be wrong

"A very curious coincidence given the number of times that CSI has been called irrelevant to Manhattan..."

Coincidence indeed. Nice pull, sisyphean.

The numbers are in again... and, once again, quite a few folks who missed the bubble missed further declines here. The overall median went up, but the breaking it apart, it shows the blend of apartments was responsible for the increase, and many apartment types went down FURTHER.

Big summary - EVERY size of apartment category is down more than 20% from peak. In fact, it actually looks worse (the improving categories were the ones much more than 20% down from peak).

Current Median vs. Peak Quarterly Median
Studio - 24.8% down from peak
One Bedroom - 23.3%
2 Bed - 24.2%
3 Bed - 37.6%
4 Bed - 50.0%
Overall - 10.8%

Same Miller Samuel numbers, right off the site...

QoQ price changes:

All manhattan medians
Studios
Q2 - $410k
Q3 - $375k
down 9%!

1 Bedroom
Q2 - $639k
Q3 - $610k
down 5%!

2 Bedrooms basically flat (1.25 both periods)
3 bedrooms - 2.6 to 2.7 (up 4%)

wow, crickets. Did all the bulls die? Or are they just scared of being seen next to the accurate numbers?

nice breakdown somewhereelse! it'd be cool to keep on having them on this thread as they get published. i wouldn't be surprised if from now on declines across the board show up (at median level pre-breakdown).

those buying lately will stop once they realize they were just catching a falling knife. if i could short transaction volume, I WOULD!

Thanks notadmin. Someone shared the miller samuel data link with me, and I love playing with that stuff. When I noticed the discrepancies - basically showing that the blended medians were hiding what was acutally happening - I figured it was worth sharing.

"i wouldn't be surprised if from now on declines across the board show up (at median level pre-breakdown). "

Very logical conclusion. Even if category prices stop falling, just a "medium" shift back toward the historical breakdown of sales by apartment size can have a major impact on that median...

In the end, *every single size category* is down more than 20%... so you have to figure the overall median will start looking more like that number.

I am quite honestly baffled by Miller Sams 3rd Q totals that came out. With totals for coops and condos for manhattan coming in at $1095 average per sq ft, it just doesn't jive. (I don't see how some 50 Tribeca new development condos closing at $1200 per foot offset some 200 Fidi/BPC new development condos at 800/900 per sq ft)

And Ive watched SE's (Manhattan) totals for listings for 2 of those months. Every day averaged median price per foot ranged generally between $1003 and $1012 per sq ft. One day hit $998.
And yes before all the idiots scream about median vs average, the median field is 11,000 listings. That's good enough to compare to averages for me. And don't forget, this is ASKING prices.

Here's today's search;
Real estate for sale
in Manhattan
We found 11,408 listings
Median price: $899,000 Median size: 1,023 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,007
Information on Manhattan

The spread is just too far, something really don't jive.

The people providing the data generally have a vested interest in it being higher, so it doesn't generally surprise me.

But digging through those numbers is very telling, isn't it?

20% or more in every size category.... wow...

which is a better measure, the median sales price or median ppf? I see 20% or so drop from the peak in the median ppf through Q3/2010, but an increase in the median ppf from Q2 to Q3 in 2010.

Fk u, fk u fk u... NYC RE NEVER FALLS! Goddddddddammmmmmmit! Go buy some more RIGHT NOW!

For better or worse, the data's probably as good as we can get publicly (until urbandigs 2.0 is up and running, hopefully), so while I understand questioning it, it's still useful in providing a decent picture of the trends out there. somewhereelse, to his credit (and that's not something I have cause to say often), put up a nice summary. There's no doubt there was a pretty significant correction in housing prices here - it's the constant, repetitive screaming (on both sides) that becomes tedious. Frankly, I don't think anyone has much of a clue anymore as to what the near future holds, but it's always fun to see what others (at least those who aren't convinced they're always right) are speculating. Really looking forward to UD 2.0's inventory trends - they should tell a good picture of what's going on this fall in real time, which I think will largely determine how buyers react in the spring.

"which is a better measure, the median sales price or median ppf? I see 20% or so drop from the peak in the median ppf through Q3/2010, but an increase in the median ppf from Q2 to Q3 in 2010."

Going ppsf in of itself adds good color, but if you do that by size category (and given ppsfs change a lot by category), you get even less data. Not sure if there is enough data for statistical significance.

I like the by size category because its "tangible", folks are generally looking by type, and it represents the way people live... plus, the sfs are generally... well... bogus.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/557596-coop-290-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

This fker didn't get the memo. we are off by 50% .....

So if it was "priced" correctly in 10-2007, at $4.5MM then one WOULD expect it to be priced at $2.25MM, NOT THE 3yr psycho drama SALE currently listed at $3MM. WHAT OTHER PRODUCT is for SALE FOR 3 fking YEARS?!?!? You are insane?

Shi*t or get off the TOILET!

> This fker didn't get the memo. we are off by 50% .....

I saw that and was wondering if you made that up, then I saw the actual stat I pulled...

"4 Bed+ - 50.0% "

wow, you 'aint kidding. I just thought about that. Holy moses... half off.

somewhereelse, is this the link you are referring to?

http://aggregate-data.millersamuel.com/

cause somehow the data for condos on Q3 doesn't coincide.

yup, thats it.

how long 'till the new data comes out? I can't remember how long after the quarter end.

Wow, did I call this right. Adding in the Q4 from inonada (thanks man)... looks like the mix shift I talked about was absolutely responsible for the overall median not being as low as the individuals... and looks like its finally catching up.

Studios stayed flat, 1 bedrooms went up, 2s dropped only by 2%, 3s by 4%, yet the entire median went down 7.5%

So here we go with the peak to current.
Current Median vs. Peak Quarterly Median (and max peak to trough in parentheses)
Studio - 24.8% down from peak (this is the lowest point)
One Bedroom - 22.6% (23.3% at low point)
2 Bed - 25.8% (28.8%)
3 Bed - 39.9% (48.0%)
4 Bed - 55.0% (67.3%
Overall - 17.6% (21%)

Studios - one bedrooms - two bedrooms, we're within a few points of the last trough.

clearly a few folks missed this thread.... ignorance is bliss.

Here are the Q1 numbers.... Miller Samuel just posted.

Current Median vs. Peak Quarterly Median (and max peak to trough in parentheses)
Studios - 24.8% down from peak (this is trough)
1 Bed - 26.7% (this is trough)
2 Bed - 26.7% (28.8%)
3 Bed - 45.1% (48%)
4 Bed + 58.8% (67.3%)
Overall - 23.7% (this is trough)

I have always hated statistics, but something must be wrong with the median as a measure. Look a
1 bedrooms in Manhattan or Brooklyn. The inventory and its' pricing do not feel like a trough - especially a 25% one. What gives?

Pricing is just the ask... are some folks more aggressive in ask? Perhaps. Do they get the sale? Not always. And, this is Q1 data, so its got some age to it, and sometimes the closings take months.

Noah's pending sales stats also seem to say that fewer people are buying, so perhaps the less inventory you see is being met with fewer people going after it.

"Noah's pending sales stats also seem to say that fewer people are buying"

Uh, no they're not: http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?t=Market+Trends&s1=Pending+Sales

Here are the by category numbers... some bounces in the per size, but coming off a huge decline, each size category still more than 20% down...

Size - current % off peak (maximum off peak)
Studios - currently 22% off peak (24.8% at lowest point)
1 Bedrooms - 21.1% (23.3%)
2 Bedrooms - 20.6% (28.8%)
3 Bedrooms - 28.1% (48%)
4 Bed + - 54.2% (67.3)
All Sizes - 17.1% (21%)

and, oh yeah... "While the number of condos and co-ops sold slipped by as much as 14% during the quarter compared with the same period a year earlier"

"and, oh yeah... "While the number of condos and co-ops sold slipped by as much as 14% during the quarter compared with the same period a year earlier""

What? Q2 2010 sales of condos+co-ops = 2,756. Q2 2011 sales of condos+co-ops = 2,650. How is that 14%?

Why can't anyone find 3 bed comps that are off 28.1%? Shouldn't that be easy based on swe's data? Swe, can you find one?

"Wbottom
about 10 months ago
ignore this person
report abuse

and back down methinks it will soon go...hard
my gut is rumbling...big declines over the next 9 months
please embarass me if i turn out to be wrong"

Bottoms, how much longer now?

it is interesting when you hear from actuall interested buyers how inaccurate this data is.

bjw/jim.... some of my friends are getting pink slips this week. Flamozzzzz.... understand it is not the here and now that makes money... it's the fking future.

Bklyn and being a rental whore...... well I can see YOUR futures.... even if your lack of knowledge of RE bubbles and how they deflate makes you blind to a poor location and career choice....

bjw... nice on columbia... but poor on being a lemming in a deflating mkt. Cheers.

>bjw/jim.... some of my friends are getting pink slips this week

Are these people you mention, are they among the "thousands of people who touched [your] wife"?

"please embarass me if i turn out to be wrong""

All you have to do is show up to be embarrassed, but now you have another reason

Oh wow, JuiceMan puts Wbuttocks in his? place. What will Wtushy's "girlfriend in Brooklyn" say now?

67.......consistent unwaivering message

Hones...my brother....your new Streeteasy name is Homer (as in the Greek version).........blind as a bat but true to his tale.

crazyburg....get some sun, a little BBQ, eyeball some ass, enjoy the fireworks......independance born a new.

Juice...new daddy house arrest...got to love the quiet city

falco ...... silver seems to have been a better bet over the past few years.

Pure genius, w67th.

>Falco did you see my plaster dildo masterpiece on the other thread my brother?

Wbottom got very excited, and apparently so did inonada.

w67thstreet
about 21 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse bjw/jim.... some of my friends are getting pink slips this week. Flamozzzzz.... understand it is not the here and now that makes money... it's the fking future.

Bklyn and being a rental whore...... well I can see YOUR futures.... even if your lack of knowledge of RE bubbles and how they deflate makes you blind to a poor location and career choice....

bjw... nice on columbia... but poor on being a lemming in a deflating mkt. Cheers.

Is this the future you have been bellowing about since 2008? So it's going to take more than three years for you to even begin to be proven right? Meanwhile the market is telling a far different story, given what nearly every buyer/renter says here. How does that work?

Oh come on, w67th, stooping to Brooklyn bashing? You're better than that! What with all your mathz and certaintiez and whatnot, right? Since the last 3 months was the ABSOLUTE LAST lemming gasp, this crash to $500psf is coming any second now. I can feelz it. When you buy your classic 6, we're all invited over for drinks I hope.

Browsing through Bklyn listings, I see a smattering of things like this:

A co-op in a decent location that's now listed for less than the amount for which is sold in its last transation.

This one is just $10k less than its last selling price, but some are $20k to $40k less.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/582436-coop-144-park-place-park-slope-brooklyn

We don't know where these new listings are going to close (assuming they find buyers), so we don't know yet how much the price drop will be. But it's a safe bet that these things are not going to get bid UP in price, so we can say definitely that we are in a falling market here, at least for good locations on co-ops in Bklyn.

I wonder how you price something in this market. Clearly prices are not stable so how can you set a "floor" value for yourself as a buyer - a price you think the value will not decline below that point.

Tough call.

Folks certainly aren't being paid for the extra risk.