the edge

streeteasy is not for the faint at heart...

I guess not ... I am definitely a rookie

There is an existing thread on The Edge. Did you not notice that?

majbld010: anybody who know anything about architecture and/or construction knows that the edge is definitely the best building in the area. just make sure that you are able to get the price that you are looking for. best of luck!

hi majbld010....so what feedback are you receiving?

please be aware there are many people here who cannot afford to buy in manhattan and their only hope is for prices to come down. So they trash everything and say anything to scare away the competition from buying. Desperate people resort to desperate measures. Please DO NOT repeat DO NOT listen to the doomsayers here or YOU will become one of them. Investing in a home is one of the smartest investments an individual can make. Enjoy and don't let others ruin what s/b an enjoyable experience.

majbld010 - The Edge is a good development. I think it's a notch above North Side Piers and on par with 80 met, though the Edge has more to offer as far as location, amenities, and views. The problem right now, is that the Edge is just not reducing their pricing enough. Be patient. The Edge will soften up, especially as summer draws to a close and the winter season approaches. The Edge has about 400 units left to sell, so don't feel like you need to rush into anything.
Also, please learn from my mistakes. If you place an offer on the Edge, have your attorney closely read the contract. There are some real vicious parts to the contract that should be removed/rewritten.

majbld010, i agree with everything NYCrealist says except:
The problem right now, is that the Edge is just not reducing their pricing enough. Be patient. The Edge will soften up, especially as summer draws to a close and the winter season approaches.

That is just silly crystal ball stuff. Buy when it's right for you. No one can time the market just buy, enjoy, relax and double your money in 7-10 years.

I agree with everything steveF says except "relax and double your money in 7-10 years."
Really? If we are lucky, we'll see a 3% increase per year in RE values. My math puts me well below a 100% increase in RE value in 10 years. And Frankly, this is the logic that got us into trouble in the first place. Buy a place to live, not to flip and make money.

"No one can time the market just buy, enjoy, relax and double your money in 7-10 years."

No, just no. You can't time the market, but you can predict values will double in that time? steve, I agree with you that home ownership can be a great thing (depending on the person, of course), but that kind of flipping malarkey is a recipe for disaster. There really needs to be a distinction between buying and living in your own home versus investing and renting out. The latter is and has been a very difficult proposition in the vast majority of cases, unless you're an all cash buyer. And even then.

NYCrealist...let's see the math.

bjw...the same thing was said when people bought a home in 1950 for 5k, 1970 for 30k, 1990 for 150k, 2010 for 600k.....2030 for 2.4m(nice)

Steve F - a 3% increase in RE value every year for ten years does not double your money, it's about a 33% increase in initial value over that time. Which you could get better returns with a treasury bond, and not be paying interest while you are doing it. And BTW, we are in a recession. We may not have hit bottom yet on RE values.

You are obviously a RE agent.

steveF, I have no data on this, but would love to see apts that are currently going for $600k that were going for $5k in 1950. Obviously inflation plays a part there, so you'd have to account for that. But regardless, I have a very hard time seeing incomes improving (they're mostly going in the other direction the past few years) to the point that that same apartment goes for friggin $2.4m in 20 years. Where will all that money come from?

The freefall in Wmburg prices predicted by some obviously didn't happen. Those that reduced prices or priced more realistically sold -- 70 berry, w11, now 125 north 10th almost sold, big pickup in sales at nsp once they reduced.

But The Edge doesn't seem like it has reduced to a price that will really sell the building. And neither has 80 met so it raises more problematic issues for buyers -- will this place greatly reduce at some point if the slow trickle of sales never picks up to a flow that will clear the building. Same case for 80 met/58 met. It is different when a building like nsp has clearly determined to sell the building in a short time.

Also, hard to factor in a number of smaller places such as 29 south 3rd, 135 north 11th, and some smaller places around here and there. How do you people see the wmburg market today?

buyerbuyer, prices undeniably went down in Williamsburg. Two important things to note though: 1) comps are trickier here than in most other parts of the city, simply because there wasn't a significant amount of new condos in the area up until a few years ago (during the boom), and that's what most people are buying here now; and 2) asking prices, as you noted, have been unreasonable in many developments, and eventual discounts off list don't really reflect the actual discounts from peak sales prices. That being said, the disaster that many, many people said was a sure thing hasn't exactly materialized. I do believe there's still some downside risk, but I'd be surprised if we get below say $600 psf for the top-end stuff on the northside. I think (someone correct me if I'm wrong) that that stuff is moving at ~$650 right now.

bjw2103 - Yes, you're right on the money. $650 psf seems to be the magic number for developments like 80 Met and the Edge. NSP sold a lot at, and well below, that number. From the rumblings I am hearing, NSP tower 2 is trying to hold out a little for higher prices, but MAYBE they are trying to sell out tower 1 before they deeply discount tower 2.

If the developers lower their price to where you (buyers) are happy and start sweeping up all their inventory, then they sold for too low in this dynamic market. I think they are just trying to find the maximum price they can get which leads to selling at a trickle pace. I think NSP in different situation bec its a huge publicly traded co, differnet set of priorities than an individual developer w/ fewer ongoing projects.

SteveF, no offense but I think some of your comments are probably more than 2 standard devitions above the mean on the optimism scale.

I do think he alludes to something that is a good point, that is if you are fairly financially comfortable, with solid employment/career, have determined that buying a home is the best option for your family, and are buying a home within your financial means, at some point you have to stop banging your head against the wall with all these comps, arguments, negotiations etc and move on with your life and enjoy the place you choose to live

bjw...the same thing was said when people bought a home in 1950 for 5k, 1970 for 30k, 1990 for 150k, 2010 for 600k.....2030 for 2.4m(nice)

bjw,look at any neighborhood in Long island or the 5 boroughs you'll get the same %s.

kiz...well said. In my opinion being 2 SD above the mean on the optimistic scale is the only way to live life.

It seems that most people on this thread agree that nobody can tell the future.

If this really goes up by 33% in 10 years, though, this will clearly beat renting and investment in treasuries if you finance with 20% down (current 10 yr-yield on treasuries is also 3%).

Say you buy today for 100k and sell in 10 years for 133k (sponsor covering closing costs today as they are willing to do), subtract 6% transaction costs of the sale price in 10yrs, gives 125k. The original mortgage was 80k, let's ignore principal payment for now, you get back 125k - 80k = 45k. Compared with your down payment of 20k an annualized return of 8.5%.

What about monthly interest payment? Well, you can't live for free (unless you want to stay with mom), right? So, we would need to compare interest vs. rent payments. The Edge has 2BRs on lower floors available for around 675k. At 5%, you'd be paying about 3k a month on those for your mortgage and another 0.7k in common charges. Taking into account tax deductibility of your mortgage interest, the net cost comes down to maybe 3.2k per month; there are virtually no real estate taxes due the 421a abatement. Show me where in Williamsburg you can rent a new construction 2BR at that price. 34 Berry which is clearly not as nice as the Edge is renting out 2BRs starting at 3.6k a month. After 10 yrs your equity would have gone up to 34% (using original purchase price), and I didn't even include the principal payment in my calculation of the return above. Also, imagine where your rent will be in 10years if it's at 3.6k today (but you'd still be paying your monthly nut of 3k for your mortgage if you buy...)

So, under the scenario of 33% up in 10 years, there is really no way that renting can beat buying.

Sure, the leverage that you get from financing also applies on the downside. And of course, if you're really smart, you are going to wait until the market has reached its absolute bottom until you purchase. (Can I borrow your crystal ball?)

But check for yourself, buying and holding for 10 years will be better than renting even if there is no appreciation. There are tons of buy vs. rent calculators out there on the web, for example here: http://www.nycbankloans.com/calculators.html

"but MAYBE they are trying to sell out tower 1 before they deeply discount tower 2."

Totally agree - I've had the same thought since they released units at the second tower and dropped prices at the first at basically the same time.

"I think they are just trying to find the maximum price they can get which leads to selling at a trickle pace."

Definitely - as long as developers can stay afloat, this is what they'll do. Reading some of the comments on other threads, it's clear some people expect something like a flood gate opening. I have a hard time seeing that happening.

"kiz...well said. In my opinion being 2 SD above the mean on the optimistic scale is the only way to live life."

Maybe so, but it can lead to financial ruin if you're not at all realistic on your expected investment returns.

bjw...what is your read on the much smaller type places -- there are a couple on s 1st or 2nd or 3rd that have like ten units. I always wonder how these things get priced or whatever. Or to take a bigger example, south 3rd. Everyone on here always talks about the big places but on the periphery there are various other things and i wonder if they represent a good value or rather dangerous investment because you're so dependent on your other owners, etc.

Also...29 s 3rd would have its views obscured on the north side if the printer building opposite domino were developed but apparently that would require a zoning change. I don't know how difficult that is to achieve or if it represents a risk to buyers. The agent said the building residents would have to fight it ...which sounds like a nightmare to organize to me .

bjw, it can but the odds are better for optimists then pessimists.

All views are risky-- almost none are protected, IMO paying a significant premium for a view that is not definitely protected-- ie on the waters edge or park- will lead to a lot of cheek clenching over time
many of those smaller bldgs are cheaper but i wouldnt say a better value, many done w/ shotty construction and may have problems over time, if only 10 of youa re paying for major repairs- this could be a big problem

buyerbuyer, to me building size, especially in a tougher RE environment is a huge issue. If you go for a building with few units, you're taking on more risk if one, or two (or more) owners start falling behind on maintenance and slipping into default. It can quickly become a bit of a nightmare to have to start worrying about other people's finances (not to mention your own). Now I recognize people's appetites for risk can vary fairly widely, but I think the proverbial "sweet spot" is a building of 25-50 units. Anything smaller than that scares me. Larger buildings are ok, but so many of the very large developments in the area are not 100% sold, which means the sponsor/developer will be hanging around for much longer than you'd want, which isn't a great thing, in my experience.

So, as for those smaller buildings on the southside, I'd say approach with caution on a case-by-case basis. 29 South 3rd isn't interesting to me unless pricing really tanks. I don't particularly like the block, and while the Domino thing is a ways off (won't be done until 2025 is my guess), it's public enough that it's clearly on buyers' minds. Which can be an issue.

steveF - Part of the reason the RE market cracked was that homes were increasing in value far faster than personal income. Experts are guessing that it might take at least 10 years to get unemployment back down to 6.5%, and that's assuming we start adding jobs immediately. I am sorry, but we are not going to back in time 5-10 years. That era has passed forever.

Buy a home/condo because you want to live there and it's the best option for you. Not because you think it will make you rich. It won't.

NYCrealist, completely agree. I would only slightly alter your last sentence to "It might, but don't count on it."

I love it when people say "ya but this time is different".

steveF - Don't take this the wrong way, but you are obviously very young. You seem to think that a 10-15% increase in the value of your home is the norm. It's not, it was the exception for a decade or so starting somewhere in the 1990's and ending about 2007. If you look at home values over the past 50-60 years, you will see a totally different trend. Real Estate is a flat asset in normal times, and in bad times...well, you get the picture.

I think for the most part since nominal (not counting inflation) house prices steadily increased during our lifetime, people just assume investing in a house is as safe as a treasury bond. If the past 2 years have taught you anything, it's that you cannot just assume prices and trends easily revert back to the mean. Just look at Japan, the 2nd largest economy in the world which thrived till the 90's when an asset bubble in banking and real estate sent that country into a lost decade of stagnation. It a remote possibility but the way things are looking in unemployment... who knows...

edit: I meant real house prices! (not counting inflation)

majbld010-if everyone has not scared you and you still like the Edge, wait 2-3 months until closings show up on ACRIS. You won't be able to move in until then anyway. I think everyone agrees prices at the Edge are not going to be higher in the next 2-3 months (the debate is whether they will discount more) and at only 30% sold, chances are whatever units you like will still be available. Good luck!