Is anyone actually buying?

I don't know,... but I don't see any price decreases like the way some people have been blogging. So, go figure.

"Prices are falling and things are going get worse". That's what all the newspapers and media are saying and they have always been a good economic forecaster.

It might be falling in Main Street in North Dakota but I don't see any crazy drop in Manhattan,...yet.

I've been looking at 1brs btw $500-650 for a while now. I'm getting a bunch of price drop emails from Street Easy, and have even had a few brokers follow up from open houses to tell me of price reductions or increased negotiability.

Unless I find something absolutely perfect in my price range, I'm waiting for Q1 2008 to reassess.

509 new listings in Manhattan over the last 7 days. More specifically:
209 condos, 85 of which are new builds or newly converted
276 co-ops
24 - townhouse / other

Can anyone comment on how that compares to trend?

...I revise my statement,... I've been focusing on 2 bedrooms and up market in Manhattan and I don't see any significant drop. I don't know about the 1 bedroom market.

Prices will just be higher come January.

no one with any real intention of selling their apartment lists in the summer. The increase in supply is simply 3 months worth of summer supply. Inventories are still very low in manhattan. The fact that streeteasy even exists and the fact that you are reading this post demonstrates the overwhelming demand for real estate in manhattan. No PHD neede here - Economics 101 will suffice to understand that prices cannot come down when demand far outstrips supply.

I just bought a junior 4 but I got a good deal on it.

Inventories have increased in Brooklyn and Queens. Manhattan seems to still be low. Manhattan prices may not decline but everything around it will.

Flyport - what is your source?

Don't wait too long for the alleged discount. At worse sales stay stagnant until end of Q1 2008, but like jake mentions, demand is always high -- with many anxious to get into the game. Brooklyn as an entire borough may have more inventory as Manhattan, but BoCoCa, the Heights, and Park Slope and maybe parts of the Toll Bro's Billyburg will not decline.

There's not much in Manhattan, as other have commented, but almost all the units at Sophia Lofts in Billyburg went extremely quickly (according to one of the agents anyway), and a place I've just looked at in Fort Greene (which just came on the market) already has an accepted offer. So yes, some people are stil quick to buy, despite some of the forecasts. I'm in no rush, and quite curious as to what the next few months will bring to prices, inventory, etc.

The Billyburg development alone is bring 10,000 more units to the market....supply is increasing rapidly, and prices will probably fall 40-50% before this is all over. Why buy now?

you're on crack to think prices would fall 40-50%. The NYC market is shrewd enough to avoid an "overall" inventory surplus like that. 1 BR's going for $500k now will be going for $250k?!?!?! Keep dreaming. My building just sold a 1BR for above asking...in Brooklyn! The "Why buy now" mantra doesn't really work out for most -- since most end up never buying and if they do buy, prices have gone out of their budget.

A one bd(835sqft) condo in Central Harlem located at 50 West 127th St. just went into contract for a purported $575k....prices don't seem to be budging much, if at all.

Hey retards, do the rent vs. buy calculation (and make sure to include the taxes/maint AND the 4% of tax free money your deposit money would earn in Muni's) and you won't be buying anything....

anon3 - you are too funny,... ha, ha, 40-50%,... woohoo!

actually, if you run a rent v. buy calculator housing is about 100% overpriced, meaning that it should come down about 50% - the decline will probably be over a period of years and adjusted for inflation.

Keep renting pnetter because your math is retarded and it would be fiscally irresponsible for you to own anything

anon3 the only thing that is 100% overpriced is whatever you paid for your real estate 101 course

Right on Juiceman, couldn't have said it better myself.

If you think Manhattan will ever drop to a "buy" signal on a rent vs buy calculator, you'll be waiting until all of us no longer want to live here.

a lot of very scared owners/brokers on this board.....

update on recent mortgage pricing in hot areas across the country (like NY)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBTJS7oiB92I

anon3 just make sure you pay your rent on time.

anon3 = mafia

Ummmmmm do any of you clowns work on wall street??? Bonus pools down 25-50% and layoffs...unless you plan on living in NY for the next 10 years I'd much rather put my money in muni's than NYC real estate...I've owned and sold in manhattan and have done well but when you add in closing AND exit costs, real estate and maitenence it's just not a compelling investment at this point....especially anything that's off the beaten path....

wow 1234 you are so much in the know. How do you put up with all this nonsense on the board. 1234 who are we rooting four --stock brokers --I can't hear you --stock brokers ---yeaaaaaaaa-- stock brokers

Wow - you guys are getting pretty nasty to one another. Happy New Year and cool down.

See the attached article - Manhattan real estate slowing...this is just the beginning...

http://www.nysun.com/article/62520

I think the biggest mistake people on this board seem to make is applying nationwide or citywide trends to their individual, one-off, home purchase decisions.

It's a very personal thing, and should be a function of your plans, income, etc. Generally, RE will double in value every 7/8 years or so. You count on that over time. And it's good for individual buyers that the market is soft now -- you can start chucking in some bids. But these big trends are only a small part of the decision for any one person, so don't get carried away too much in the Anon3 v. Spunky argument(s). Make your decision for yourself. There's always bargains around if you're alert and ready to pounce.

Apartment sales poised to break 10,000 barrier

http://www.amny.com/news/local/am-apartment0913,0,7259513.story

hasnt slowed yet . ..

I like the following

While the rest of the nation struggles with record high foreclosures and a glut of stagnant inventory, the factors that contributed to Manhattan's boom, including a weak dollar, strong foreign investment, and the always lustrous draw of New York, are still largely in place, meaning that for the first time in a long time, the question surrounding the 10,000 mark is when it will be crossed, not if.

"Manhattan continues to be [the] real estate contrarian to [the] national market,"

If real estate is hot, people are afraid because its too hot and waiting for a pullback.
If its down, the same people are afraid that its a bad investment.

*YAWN* If the stock market is down overall, does that mean every stock is down?

spaceboy hit the nail on the head. People follow what the media tells them. It's called heard mentality. If the media says real estate is bad then people won't buy. They will wait until the newspapers tell them the market is hot and prices are going up.

little black arrow point down....just look at the inventory numbers - they are out of control and look at the recent price changes...this is happening more quickly than almost anyone thought possible....

Inventory has been continually shrinking to a very, very low point over the past three or four months. And why is this not surprising? Because every year, and I mean EVERY YEAR, people don't like to put their places in Manhattan on the market between July 4th and Labor Day. I mean, this is something that everybody knows. So while I certainly can't argue that the shrinking inventory of the past three or four months indicated anything other than the normal periodic summer slowdown, neither can you extrapolate that the sudden increase in inventory just happening in the past week or so after Labor Day indicates anything other than the normal September rush to market that happens every year. Standard Manhattan real estate procedure dictates that the best time to try and sell are from the second week in September until Thanksgiving, and from late January through the end of June. Inventory ALWAYS spikes (hard) during these times. ALWAYS.

For you to try and twist that into an indication that, all of a sudden, EVERYBODY in Manhattan is absolutely DESPERATE to SELL, SELL, SELL is like saying occasionally drinking beer leads directly to severe heroin abuse. There's nothing 'out of control' about the recent inventory numbers that hasn't happened EVERY YEAR at this time in Manhattan. The only thing that's happening quicker than almost anyone thought possible is your knee jerk hand wringing over reactions. And even if this is the indicator of some new negative trend (which, of course, is possible), it would certainly take more than ten days (give or take) to isolate and digest.

CALM DOWN!!!

anon3 which by the way is also the same person as MMAfia is a bitter renter. I do love when he cries out loud that the Manhattan market is crashing. It's tells me he upset and he has to continue to rent because the prices are to high. Wah Wah Wah Wah

The one thing I can agree with spunky on is anon3 is very likely mafia, as I also said on another thread. Mafia has magically disappeared recently. But if this is true, then it worries me further that he would go through the trouble of creating a new username simply to keep posting his doomsday message. I don't understand the urge. . .it's that strong an urge I guess that it requires alter-egos. To each his own. . .

It would be interesting to know if anyone out there is selling now and what their experiences have been with their showings. Also, on that note for all those ACTIVE buyers out there right now what are they seeing and how they feel. So, how about those people step foward instead of all the crazies.

As I posted above, I am actively looking at 1brs btw $500-650, and the open houses have definitely had less buzz than they had earlier in the year. There was a duplex in Chelsea a couple of months ago that was well priced and beautifully renovated that had a lot of interest, including a couple openly running through their "when it's ours" scenarios, but other than that the mood seems to have changed. Most notably, I'm getting many follow up calls and emails from the brokers that are showing, sometimes multiples from the same broker. This used to almost never happen.

i am an active buyer. something in a new development 2 bed around $1.5m. seem to have a lot of more choices than i did at the beginning of the year. one or two of the buildings i have been following, new apartments have listed this week at prices below others previously listed. one or two of of those in current listing have come down in price. but nothing drastic. but i do feel more comfortable offending people with a low price offer now, and they look less offended.

i have been approached by brokers this week who i used to deal with. but that could be the end of the summer.

reason i do not own already : i am picky, want to make sure that i am not going to get screwed on a mortgage when a lot of the new developments are finished finally. and want to see the apt before i buy( personal preference) and most the new stuff will only complete early next year.

hey tenemental i think i am the couple who was doing the "when it is ours" talk on that duplex in chelsea. We put a bid in on the apartment only to have the d-ckhead owner sit on my check and contracts while he shopped my bid around for a week to get a higher bid from someone else. I was furious when it happened. But now I feel like the luckiest guy in the world. I like many other wall street guys were extrapolating record bonuses into the future. Almost overnight things have changed drastically. Now many credit traders are going to be lucky if they keep their jobs. So NonAnonymous asked what active buyers are thinking. I went from placing a bid on an apartment to thanking my lucky stars I didnt get it and happily resigning a 2 year lease on my rental and walking away completely from the market. Anyone applying rental yields to conclude the NYC market will fall 50% is missing the point. This market will correct but supply is tight, we are an international city and the dollar is weak making us even more attractive to overseas buyers. 50% declines never. Buying down 10-15% likely. But 15% on a multimillion dollar apartment isnt chump change. Real estate is cyclical and the NYC market has had 4 record setting years you would be fooling to think we dont have a few flat to down years to digest the 100% gains.

I too am "sitting on the sidelines". Have been in the market for the last 7 months looking for a 3 br and was getting frustrated - now I am pleased to still be in the market and am kicking back to see what happens in the next 2 or 3 months. I think only the uninformed or those under REAL pressure to buy are out there now. Brokers are definitely nervous - you can hear it in their voice.

samzell, if you are convinced that the market is going to correct 10-15% than why would you sign a two year lease and walk away from the market?

My friend too is sitting on the sidelines and has been for the past 10 years. He thinks now's the best time to sit on the sidelines. Go figure

You know this reminds me of a story. A friend of my was renting this apartment about 10 years ago. He the option to buy this apartment 5 years ago for 1.5 mil. I told him he should buy and he said "Naw Naw Naw it's too expensive" so he past on it. Now the same apartment is going for 3.5 mil. He's very upset about it. He keeps mumbling dam I should of bought it 5 years ago I could of be a millionaire. So I asked him why don't you buy it now. He says now. "Now it's too expensive". Go figure

Spunky - you have told that story before on an other thread...

Real estate is a religion, once people lose their faith its going to become a mythology.

Nova I know just making sure I got my point across --sorry about that

If you look at "most recent price changes" on this site, you will find almost 60 apartments in NYC that posted price reductions in the last 2 days. I think that says a lot.

stealth1:

Not that surprising, if you account for the fact that most people were waiting until after Labor Day to put their places on the market - as they usually do. If you've been trying to sell your place at an inflated asking price for many months previously, and Labor Day rolls around, and you know that there will be many fresh-to-the-market postings between Labor Day and Thanksgiving Holiday, I would imagine if you're serious about selling that you would then readjust your price point to a more realistic level (given recent market vagaries) to compete with the expected spike of newer inventory after Labor Day.

I think that's all the recent price changes really indicate. If, however, inventory stays spiked too high through Thansgiving/Christmas, and when we finally hear the truth (and not all the assumptions) regarding bonus expetations for the Street, well, THEN we might be able to draw a different conclusion.

There's still a lack of quality inventory in good neighborhoods. This is one reason why people aren't buying (as much as in Q4 2006 and Q1 2007)

255 east 74th street is 40% sold in 8 weeks

to sydney: Is that really the case? (Lack of quality inventory in good neighborhoods) It kind of makes sense to me, now that I think about it. I've done some looking around lately (not a ton), and there certainly is a "picked-over" quality to what seems to be available. What do you attribute that to? Is it just seasonal, sort of like pseudonym points out, where the decent stuff has all been sold during the peak summer season? I'm wondering if it's the sign of a strong market (i.e., all the good stuff sells fast) or a weakening one (e.g., low-end, entry-level buyers draining out of the market, either out of fear or not being able to get mortgages).

I think the market will go down as I've said before, but maybe not as much as other people believe. What NBalzac is referring to is, I think, the first step in that gradual process. I think there will start to be a hard bifurcation - all the well laid out, well located, good light and view, quality finish places on one side of the aisle, and anything even slightly 'less-than' on the other side of the aisle. Everything on the first side of the aisle will probably see a drop in value, but modestly so - I'm guessing around 10%, give or take. But if the place has anything less than stellar location, great amenities, is poorly laid out, has sub-par finishes, suffers from no views and or bad light, etc., IF it manages to sell at all, will be hit hard by a much more major downturn - I'd guess more like 15%-25%.

All residential properties in Manhattan are not created equal. And as to those outside of Manhattan, no matter how fashionable, it's really anybody's guess. At the risk of sounding provincial, I still feel that when it comes to residential real estate value (and value only - we're not discussing aesthetics or anything else here at the moment), prime Manhattan is prime Manhattan, and everything else isn't.

Re: lack of quality inventory in good neighborhoods. One way to determine this for yourself is to save a Search on Streeteasy with your criteria: location, price, etc. I've done this for about 6-7 months. What I'm seeing is not a lot of quality inventory in my selected neighborhood (which happens to be the Upper East and Upper West, condos around $1,000 per sq ft). I also check weekly at the major brokerage websites for their new listings (Corcoran, Halstead, etc). Again, quality properties in good neighborhoods are scarce.

I should qualify by saying that if you're willing to pay more per square foot (above $1,200) you'll have more choices.

I haven't seen much a price decline in hot properties, esp. 1M+ range.

300-400's seem to have softened a lot in the 14 mo's I've been looking. Some places I've watched sit on market for >300 days. Nothing in the 600+ range is behaving like that, of course. The <600 market is probably immune to the big money from Wall st anyways, and younger Street-erz won't have their bounuses hit that hard.

I perceive inventory to be up (relative to NY, of courser) inventory moving less quickly, and sellers more willing to consider offers.

The real question in my mind is what a second attack could do to Manhattan. It's easy to dismiss a single event, but 2 starts to really make people think twice. That's a real non-zero risk you have to consider when buying I think.

<...cont'd due to cutoff>

The real question in my mind is what a second attack will to do Manhattan real estate. It's easy to cast-off a single event, but two starts to really make people think twice. That's a real non-zero risk you have to consider when buying.

I disagree. Sadly, here has been a rather long history of terrorist related attacks in other major cities like London, for example, and their real estate is currently far more expensive than NYC on psf basis. Other major cities that have also had numerous attacks previously (such as Paris) also have seen very stable prices in their high end real estate as well.

Granted, if the attack is chemical or nuclear in nature, all bets are off, but at that point, we'll all have far bigger things to concern ourselves with than real estate prices.

I have enough money to make a comfortable deposit (more than 40 percent down). Have searched in vain for more than a year. And I've recently decided to deal with the hassle of getting another rental and sit on the sidelines for at least two years. My deposit is safer sitting in the bank. A drop of 20 percent is reasonable and plausible. But even a drop that steep would leave New York in a much better position than the rest of the country.

For years, the trickle-down yuppies were boasting that their personal riches in the real estate market were pumping up prices from Corona to Parkchester. Now that the tide has turned, those same folks say that unhip places operate on a completely different market, and that wealthy areas will be insulated from any downtown. Manhattan is an island only in the geographic sense.

Your absolutely right Manhattan RE will drop at least 20 % over the next few years. Gee I just thought of something quite amazing. If everyone believes the Manhattan market to drop 20% and rent instead of buying. And if inventory is flat or even rises a little bit then rents should continue to rise. Now wouldn't that be ironic. Better to rent than be sorry and I hope that this uncertainty of buying amongst renters may in fact create an overpopulation of renters who are to scared to buy. Now when the coast is clear to buy than the high high built up population of renters may in fact be out bidding one another on for sale apts. Isn't this what you call a Catch 22 situation. Just call me Spunky Greenspan.

I think we found the golden knife!

Check out spunky's last post!

(if you can't tell, he's being ironic... guy was one of the biggest bulls before he disappeared)

lol

you know, we really could have used w67th and 30yrs back then.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/2483-major-sell-off-looming?page=2

faustus let me keep this simple and sweet. As you know it's holiday season and the mail is slower this time of the year. Now is a good time to get your checkbook out and write the check to your landlord. Now you see I wasn't nasty, mean or obnoxious all I am here for is to help you so you don't get hit with late fee's. You are renting aren't you?

everyone who is anyone knows their property value is going down at least 20% in 2007. Probably down another 10% in 2008 than down another 25% in 2009. Then down another 23% in 2010. Than down 30% in 2011, then down 25 % in 2012, then down 45% in 2013 then down 30% in 2014.
In 7 years from now your house is going to totally worthless. In fact the average house will be worth a negative 450,000. 100% of all homeowners will be required by law to file for bankruptcy. Now if you're renting well lucky you. Your landlord will be required to pay you at least $5000.00 per month just so you can live in his house.

The scary thing is how many folks today are saying "noone with any credibility really said that"... when it represented more of the board than the bears did!

well, I guess they're right in that none of those bulls had any credibility.

;-)